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Why wait? If you are serious, why not move now?
Post general election and hung parliament, pm elect Ed Davey, with most seats in parliament, is asked to form a government, he can count on the Greens but he needs those 10 labour MPs on his side, Corbyn?
But seriously more likely to get Tory seats for a majority. Which means its payback time! Particularly if he picks a disaffected former Labour MP Ed milliband as his home secretary 🙂
Why wait? If you are serious, why not move now?
Beacuse he'd be dead by Christmas of a tandoori munchie box overdose.
Why wait? If you are serious, why not move now?
He can't just crash out. He needs an orderly exit.
What a surprise. The EU 'deal' has come down to them saying 'there you go. Thats what we've decided. Take it or ****ing leave it!'
So in a way, Little Liam was right....
What a surprise. The EU ‘deal’ has come down to them saying ‘there you go. Thats what we’ve decided. Take it or ****ing leave it!’
It's easy to take this view because it fits with the remain at all costs narrative. However, as we all know the EU are the masters of pragmatism and will not allow idealogy to get in the way of reaching a mutually beneficial deal. None of us know how much the EU will change their position, but we do know that they will, otherwise we'd already have crashed out in March. But here we find ourselves two extensions later, after a supposed immovable deadline was moved. I agree that they won't change much, certainly not with a tory negotiating team, but you can't dismiss the possiblity altogether because they've already proven their willingness to change when it suits them.
Wowsers - it's all getting punchy in here.
Am I missing something.... the EU are saying that the Withdrawal agreement won't be negotiated. That is only the precursor to the real negotiations, the outline of which is in the political declaration.
So in actual fact everyone is right... the EU won't renegotiate the withdrawal agreement, however the actual deal that we come up with is subject to the ongoing negotiations in the 2 year transition period. So Jezza or a new tory PM can negotiate using different red lines for the longer term relationship?
However in order to get to that point we have to sign up to the Withdrawal agreement which nobody likes? So it is a moot point anyway.
Or have I got this all wrong?
a supposed immovable deadline
is what UK said, not what EU said
Having been through the mill on twitter with people who've never read the small print of a mobile phone contract but who continually talk about "common sense" and "they need us more than we need them" is that the fundamentals are clear - if we want to trade, profitably with our closest geographic neighbours then we need our regulations to be as close to their's as possible. To pretend otherwise is both a fallacy and a delusion.
When a trade deal is negotiated, the smaller market will invariably have to compromise more than the larger market. Access to the EU marketplace was the crux of the Brexiteers' plan; they banked on global product standards convergence (now unlikely given the hostile trade environment propagated by the US/China) and that worst case scenario, Britain would be a giant warehouse stuffed with the world's tat being sold to Europe via leaky border arrangements - why do you think that Brexiteers like Raab, Hannan et al keep banging on about "technological solutions" to avoid a hard border? Honestly, Scottish independence is a desired result for the headbangers - they love the thought of an unguarded land border to an EU country so that they can pour other people's tat across by the lorryload.
Brexit has become about much more than whether or not we leave the EU - it's about who we will end up kowtowing to over the next thirty years. There's little in the way of strategic planning going on, the "no deal" brigade of charlatans want to cut tariffs on imports to everyone, but the rest of the world does not have to reciprocate, meaning that over the mid to long term we're going to have to make some extremely tough choices about currency valuation, product/food standards, public spending and even whether we align our human rights legislation with our more unscrupulous potential suitors.
Naturally, the above does not prevent blokes who've had no education beyond the age of sixteen lecturing everyone about the mythical GATT24 clause. The level of dishonesty from politicians is staggering, either they lack the intellectual rigour to fully understand where we are, or they're deliberately misleading people in the hope that no-one notices.
I agree that they won’t change much, certainly not with a tory negotiating team, but you can’t dismiss the possiblity altogether because they’ve already proven their willingness to change when it suits them.
Its not a change the possibility of extension(s) were written into A50 & were offered by the EU from day1.
The problem for many of the Brexiteers is that the EU works in a legalistic way, its both a strength & a weakness, while it means flexibility is limited it means they stick to their guns & its quite wise way to manage what could be a free for all with 28 competing inputs.
The failure to understand this is why the likes of David Davis were so utterly useless at negotiating.
Its now written into law that as a condition of the extension the WA cannot be reopened , Barnier pointed that out in his interview this week.
And of course crackpot May was happy to include it as she thinks it would increase pressure on both Labour & Tories to back her deal as it makes it the only game in town.
I'd be happy for them to keep rubber stamping more extensions to article 50 for the next few years until demographics and the grim reaper deliver a clear remain majority and we can forget this frightful nonsense ever happened
I know that that means that nothing else can be done politically except argue about Brexit, but given our current crop of politicians, on both sides, maybe that's a blessing in disguise. I mean; just look at how many billions Chris Grayling costs us on an average morning, and imagine if the lot of them didn't have Brexit to keep them occupied.....
I can't think where I saw it but apparently that has been floated by some member states. Indefinite extension to A50 so we can spend the rest of our days arguing amongst ourselves about the One True Brexit. They have better things to do in the meantime.
I’d be happy for them to keep rubber stamping more extensions to article 50 for the next few years
The longer it goes on, the more likely PM Farage becomes. What do you fear most? Farage as PM, or leaving the EU with some form of deal?
Farage as PM, or leaving the EU with some form of deal?
Leaving with a deal and Farage as a PM is the worry.
If we harden the remain stance we can go into coalition against Farage, if we no deal then Farage, the Tories and Corbyn will have their credibility destroyed. If we soft Brexit, we will get a stab in the back myth propagating and Farage will only grow stronger. Meanwhile the remain opposition won't have anything to galvanize support against him. The only way to keep Farage at bay is to emotionally polarise remain.
It's war now Daz, you are fighting 2017s border skirmish.
Am I missing something…
No @norbert-colon, you're spot on.
And Mr Womble is also right, pushing through with "the wrong Brexit" (which also happens to be the only way to Brexit) will empower, not neuter, the Brexit bandwagon.
Yup Kelvin,
Like the far right understand....we have to tap into the following quote to harden resolve against Farage. The left knew that you couldn't beat the right through appeasement and rational discourse, you have to get nasty.
When hopes are loose in the streets, it is well for the timid to lock doors, shutter windows and lie low until the wrath has passed. For there is often a monstrous incongruity between the hopes, however noble and tender, and the action which hollows them. It is as if ivied maidens and garlanded youths were to herald the four horsemen of the apocalypse
We need to let loose hopes and dreams in the street. We need to give remain and everyone who opposes Farage an emotional reason to fight him. At every right wing demonstration, at every brexit conference, in parliament. No quarter given.
Yes Norbert - that is the jist of it. The kicker is that the NI backstop is in the withdrawal and is therefore the reason why the ERG loonies won't go for it (see notes passim about how the UK wrote the backstop etc). The rest of the withdrawal agreement is supposedly reasonable.
At every right wing demonstration, at every brexit conference, in parliament. No quarter given.
We're gonna need a bigger dairy farm.
Yup Kelvin
Listen to you two 🙂
Aside from spouting off on the internet what are you actually going to do? Vote Lib Dem? This faux bravado is laughable. I'm beginning to think the real divide in this country is between the nutters at both extremes of the brexit hysteria who are chest beating in advance of their pointless culture war, and the majority who are sick to death of it and just want it over and done with so we can start tackling other important issues.
Rural bus timetables?
I want Brexit over with. Cancelled is my preferred state, but I’ll take the WA just to piss off the hardline Brexiteers.
who are sick to death of it and just want it over and done with so we can start tackling other important issues.
Straight up revoke, then? If any brexit happens at all we're going to be doing nothing else for a looooong time.
the majority who are sick to death of it and just want it over and done with so we can start tackling other important issues.
... like poverty, food shortages, fuel crises, lack of medicines, that sort of thing?
The kicker is that the NI backstop is in the withdrawal and is therefore the reason why the ERG loonies won’t go for it (see notes passim about how the UK wrote the backstop etc).
Corbyn spent quite a lot of time opposing it (the backstop) too. Despite the fallback position being exactly what he claims to want i.e in customs union with the EU.
just want it over and done with so we can start tackling other important issues
Brexit is going to be all consuming for the foreseeable future. Sorry.
If any brexit happens at all we’re going to be doing nothing else for a looooong time.
exactly- 3 years to not agree a 500 page withdrawl agreement, thats seen the country grow ever more bitter and divided
youd be bonkers to think we will get the much trickier & more contentious Future Relationship negotiated in under 10 years -average trade deal is 1000s of pages long & we are renegotiong 40 odd including one that encompasses 44% of our trade!
can the country handle another decade of this?
there will be no other parliamentary business, no legislative agenda, nothing
until weve restored what we are ripping up with brexit
… like poverty, food shortages, fuel crises, lack of medicines, that sort of thing?
Indeed. Products of no deal which is the direct opposite of what I'm saying should happen. I still firmly believe that the majority want a deal so we can draw a line under it (this stage at least). Trouble is they're being drowned out by nutters who want to have some sort of war. This whole debate resembles The BIgg Market in Newcastle on a Saturday night, where tanked up grown men knock lumps out of each other to protect their macho pride, whilst everyone else looks on and laughs at what idiots they are.
Vote Lib Dem? This faux bravado is laughable
Oh come off it! Brexit in any form will only compound our countries issues.
With labour in some sort of existential crisis and the torys bottoming out in the poles, there is no other party to vote for.
It's imperative brexit is stopped or at least parked in the long grass until it's planned better to enable any UK government to actually get on with governing. Brexit is all consuming to the point there's very little governmental resource to be doing any governance on anything else.
Products of no deal which is the direct opposite of what I’m saying should happen.
Likely products of any form of brexit, it's just a matter of severity. But yes, I know, project fear la la la la two world wars and one world cup doo dah.
I still firmly believe that the majority want a deal
I still firmly believe that you're either fibbing or deluded. For reasons that have been discussed to death in the previous seventeen hundred pages.
This is worth a read, for an insight into the togetherness that all this has brought about.
We’re gonna need a bigger dairy farm.
* Applauds *
Dazh - leaving the EU isn’t “getting it over with” it’s the start of a long process of renegotiating our agreements with the rest of the world.
Trouble is they’re being drowned out by nutters who want to have some sort of war. This whole debate resembles The BIgg Market in Newcastle on a Saturday night, where tanked up grown men knock lumps out of each other to protect their macho pride, whilst everyone else looks on and laughs at what idiots they are.
It would appear, judging by the brexit parties support, the majority of leavers want no deal. So no, the majority do not want a deal. Remainers don't want a deal, neither do most brexiteers. Why should it be remain that caves and gives Farage "stab in the back" ammo? Let brexiteers work it out amongst themselves and for the conservatives to make the decision to support any brexiteer consensus and see if it gets enough support.
You still don't get it.
It's not up to remainers to deliver brexit for brexiteers. It's up to them to deliver it and for remain to act as opposition.
It’s not up to remainers to deliver brexit for brexiteers. It’s up to them to deliver it and for remain to act as opposition.
The only thing we remainers have to do is respect the result of the 2016 referendum and accept that we lost. If we're clever we would try to get a deal which mitigates the damage, but the remain side of the argument has fallen back on it's fantasies of cancelling brexit altogether and this has created the space for the nutters to push no deal, which now looks very likely. We'll see how it all plays out but I'm fairly certain that the current remainer strategy of pursuing no brexit will only result in the exact opposite with no deal with an extreme rightwing govt driving it.
As has been pointed out to you, again and again, delivering Brexit with a Withdrawl Arrangement will be (and is being) used to further the Farage cause anyway. You can't stop him with a slow steady withdrawal from the current arrangements. Whatever path we take now will result in the rise of the populist right. It will consume the Conservative Party without a doubt now. The rest of us don't have to go down with them. You are making a good argument about what to do in late 2016 still… you need to look at where we are now… leaving the EU now with plans that only "Remainers" and a tiny subset of people who voted to Leave support, will fuel the betrayal narrative just as strongly as allowing the public to vote to stay in the EU, if that is what they'd prefer.
The only thing we remainers have to do is respect the result of the 2016 referendum
The problem here is that no-one really understands the basic principles underlying any of this, because they simply aren't defined. There aren't any rules surrounding this. If there were, they wouldn't have been able to be so vague as to the implications of the original question.
This is why we're having such arguments about it now. There is no certainty in any of it, regardless of how much you wish there were dazh. Or indeed anyone else. This is not a black and white issue, and it is so important we cannot simply plough on just because of the result of that vote.
"Remainers are to blame" is such a pile of horse doodoo.
Who wanted Brexit? Who did not have a plan to deliver Brexit? Who have spent the past three years cock waving over how easy this is going to be before resigning in a huff? Who has constantly voted against leaving the EU? Etc. Etc.
You could take remainers completely out of the picture and the Brexit lot would still be spinning in circles at this point.
another excellent piece by Chris Grey here
the only deal on offer is may's WA, and it's been rejected, rather roundly, i think we can all agree. no amount of wishful thinking on the part of those who still support labour's 'position', or future potential after they win a general election ( Ha! ) will change that, so we're in this now right up to the maker's plate. in or out.
The only thing we remainers have to do is respect the result of the 2016 referendum and accept that we lost.
Like **** do we.
As we live in a democracy, it's well within out right to carry on opposing it. In fact, it's the duty of remain to offer a proper alternative (ie revoke) especially now that all realistic deal proposals have failed.
Harold Wilson didn't respect the '75 referendum.
We’ll see how it all plays out but I’m fairly certain that the current remainer strategy of pursuing no brexit will only result in the exact opposite with no deal with an extreme rightwing govt driving it.
No. This is what will happen if brexiteer MPs decide that is what they actually want and manage to get a majority. At the moment - they do not know what they want - well apart from the Brexit voting public. But the MPs won't agree on no deal Brexit because they know as soon as they pull that trigger, the resulting fall out will be the end of them.
One for the (rare but very real) pro-immigration Brexit cheerleaders…
https://twitter.com/jonlis1/status/1062009878426857473?s=21
Nail the fat greedy bastard to the wall. It's the only way he'll learn.
Edit: sorry I thought this was the BoJo thread.
Too many political threads to keep track of.
Cancelled is my preferred state, but I’ll take the WA just to piss off the hardline Brexiteers.
No deal is not an option if we want to trade with EU, it's the withdrawal agreement or the withdrawal agreement. There's to be no renegotiation as EU has dissolved their team and re-deployed them.
Eventually JRM and the ERG are going to realise that their dream is dead, Mrs May has out-foxed them.
As we live in a democracy, it’s well within out right to carry on opposing it.
Quite right and as we are in a Parliamentary Democracy it is up to Parliament to make the final decision based on the best outcome for the country and its people (not their parties).
Quite right and as we are in a Parliamentary Democracy it is up to Parliament to make the final decision based on the best outcome for the country and its people (not their parties).
Parliamentary Democracy does that equate Parliament is supreme? 🤔
Sovereign I think not supreme.
And isn’t it “the queen/king in parliament“?
I may have gotten that wrong of course me laddo.