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A cursory look shows that some people did. Also it isnt like Labour doesnt have its own divide over Brexit so the disarray argument seems rather flawed.
Some people? Just about still in double figures I guess, just need to push out a few more "blairites". I'm suggesting that Labour could be less disarrayed and, god help us, offer some clear leadership in this moment of national crisis.
lord ashcroft agrees
sadly labour are still chasing the minority of their voters whove fled to farage, rather than the much larger number who have gone to pro-remain parties
and while bulk of Tory voters shifted to farage 10% or so went libdem/green
Our parliament won’t ratify the Withdrawal agreement or agree to a ” no deal” exit then basically we can’t ever leave the EU.Is the EU a European Kafakaesque equivalent of Hotel California?
No.
The key words are 'our parliament' in that paragraph. The EU aren't stopping us from leaving on the terms which we negotiated. Remember, we were supposed to be gone already, and could have done so had we not gone back and asked for more time.
We hold all the cards remember?
thats the entire point of recalibrating the Labour party so it isnt tory lite to persuade the swing voters.
Hows that working out?
Is the EU a European Kafakaesque equivalent of Hotel California?
funnily enough its our sovereign parliament thats the blockage here
the dangers of a binary ref where there is no clear definition of what one outcome means!
Kimbers, that graph wrecks Dazhs argument once and for all. Good post.
Can I say, we told you so Daz?
Also interesting that the number of labour supporters lost to brexit is about equivalent to the amount of supporters the conservatives lost to remain. So overall it's looking likely that there has been a swing to remain.
While Labour's position is FUBAR still...
From The Guardian via Today on R4.
Chakrabarti says Labour could back Leave
Shadow attorney general Shami Chakrabarti has said Labour could still back leaving the EU in a second referendum.In an interview with the Today programme she added to confusion about Labour evolving policy on Brexit by saying it was for the party to decide whether it would back leave or remain.
She said: “As to whether we would take one line or another in a referendum that would depend on what the deal was.
“Was it going to be a Labour deal with the closest possible relationship with Europe, or was it going to be a deal we thought less than satisfactory.”
Facts are never going to win any of these arguments. What we need is more emotive, jingoistic soundbites that us Remainers can rally around and reach out to the undecided with a powerful message of "ooh it's scary" or "there be dragons" or "wouldn't it be nice if we could all just get along" or "it's not actually Europe's fault you know" or "honestly, we really are better off in you know" but that's not very exciting, so it's doomed.
Corbyns now confirmed that a 2nd ref is some way off (even tho the end of the extension is not) & remain wouldn't be an option.
He also repeated that he thinks he can reopen the negotiations.
Labour is a pro- Brexit party
Chasing unicorns like the rest of them.
Hows that working out?
It was working out very well and Corbyn would have got away with it had it not been for that pesky Brexit
If he'd have come out with that last week, before the EU elections, I reckon they'd have ended up making the Tory's 9% look like a pretty respectable result
The Labour party is now a clueless political irrelevance as they march off down their electoral Lexit dead end.
The Lib Dems will be popping the champagne corks this afternoon
Apologies as I know I only do pop in and out on this thread but how the hell does that graph thing kimbers posted work? It's comparing ge results in which ukip have never done well with euro results in which they've done very well and drawing conclusions about where tory and Labour votes that never existed went.
23 ukip seats lost last week iirc, yet the graph suggests they barely existed.
Unless I'm very much mistaken no one has detailed voter data, certainly not for recent elections, eg kimbers voted a in xxxx, b in yyyyy and c in zzzz so it's a lot of guess work at where all these voters and votes are coming from and going to and data like that ^^^ is opinion masquerading as fact. You can infer from where the votes were placed certain things but, categorically and provably, people don't vote the same at GE and euros and there's no way of knowing if all the (now lost) previous labour voters in area a actually voted tory this time and every previous tory voter split to green/lib dem.
Or is it based on oh so accurate opinion polls and surveys?
hat graph wrecks Dazhs argument once and for all. Good post.
Can I say, we told you so Daz?
tbf the euros had low turnout and with fptp that doesnt translate into seats very well
BUT from that many labour voters have switched to the No Deal Brexit party, Corbyns tack to a soft Brexit seems unlikely to win them back & equally likely to keep away those that moved to green/lib dem
its here, from polls of 10,000 voters
yes its a poll
but like all the others it shows that labours strategy isnt working
Corbyns now confirmed that a 2nd ref is some way off (even tho the end of the extension is not) & remain wouldn’t be an option.
Yep, he really is incapable of listening to his party and his voters (or previous voters now as they have moved away)
Anyone who believes in Labour type policies and approach with remain thrown in can go to Green party (I have) but if there was a GE tomorrow I would guess they would get less than 5 seats. I think they picked the wrong name and people just see them as only about green issues.
sadly labour are still chasing the minority of their voters whove fled to farage, rather than the much larger number who have gone to pro-remain parties
Let's look at this from a G.E point of view.
Not sure how up to date this is now …
But as I understand it Labour is 64 seats short of a majority.
Labour has 45 target seats in England & Wales.
Most (79%) of these targets gains are (were) in marginal Tory leave-voting seats.
There are remain target seats in Scotland – but it would make sense to target E&W based on the Leave vote as SNP are more likely to form a coalition.
Last election Labour lost six constituencies – all Leave.
BUT from that many labour voters have switched to the No Deal Brexit party, Corbyns tack to a soft Brexit seems unlikely to win them back & equally likely to keep away those that moved to green/lib dem
A General Election will not be fought on just Brexit.
Kimbers, that graph wrecks Dazhs argument once and for all.
I'm not sure you understand what my argument is.
Hows that working out?
You been looking at too many people ripping up their membership cards live on twitter?
Most (79%) of these targets gains are (were) in marginal Tory leave-voting seats.
my point is that those seats now back farages hard brexit, Labour will not win them whether they back remain or a soft brexit, farage has convinced them that they are pretty much the same thing.
You been looking at too many people ripping up their membership cards live on twitter?
Well... election results. Similar thing, really
my point is that those seats now back farages hard brexit, Labour will not win them whether they back remain or a soft brexit, farage has convinced them that they are pretty much the same thing.
That's pure speculation based on the European elections. Who says that will transalate to a General Election ? - throw in Farage's attitude towards the NHS and I doubt it will be as you say.
A General Election will be more than Farage, no doubt about it.
Well… election results. Similar thing, really
We had a G.E recently?
but it would make sense to target E&W based on the Leave vote as SNP are more likely to form a coalition.
Difficulty there is SNP will demand an indy ref that Labour don't want. they'll have 0 chance of convincing people staying in the UK is the best way to stay in Europe, and I for one can't see IS2 going the same way as the first time, so very suddenly Labour have no coalition partners in Parliament and if we're very unlucky as they go the SNP will vote through any crap Corbyn tabled, including no deal, as a final screw you to the rest of us and a lovely exchange of favours for a favourable Scottish exit.
Thank you kimbers I'll have a read.
A General Election will not be fought on just Brexit.
Give it up man! Obviously a bunch of keyboard warriors on an internet forum are more in the know than a well funded party machine who can commission it's own private polling and focus groups, and who are hooked into the grassroots in every constituency in the country.
The solution to labour's interminable problem was/is a soft brexit deal. The remain fundamentalists have probably scuppured that now though so all we have left is a tory/Farage no deal, an an unhinged rightwing government. I hope you all enjoy the ensuing culture war. Turkeys voting for christmas.
We had a G.E recently?
Ask a silly question?
The solution to labour’s interminable problem was/is a soft brexit deal. The remain fundamentalists have probably scuppured that now though so all we have left is a tory/Farage no deal, an an unhinged rightwing government. I hope you all enjoy the ensuing culture war. Turkeys voting for christmas.
I do admire your tenacity in trying to blame US elitist remainers for brexit rather than tories/Labour for appeasing the likes of farage instead of opposing them! a good example is corbyn doubling down on his lies that he could reopen the WA negotiations.
Please tell me how he & other senior labour members repeating this lie helps?
youve also contradicted yourself, because if Labour are so hooked in with their private polling the path they are plotting will win anyway, regardless of us keyboard warriors
14% in a national election is fine… carry on… nothing to learn…
Incidentally,
If any leavers seriously have the brass neck to suggest that a "no deal" brexit (or indeed any form of brexit) would be the fault of the remainers, could I kindly ask if they'd mind awfully popping round to my house so that I can hit them in the face with a shovel?
You broke it, you fix it. We warned you what would happen three years ago and you all cried "la la la project fear I can't hear you" with your fingers in your ears, don't you dare go pointing fingers at us now.
Love and kisses,
Cougar.
you've had local elections, you've had eu elections. in both labour took a beating, pro remain parties made gains, brexit party hoovered up UKIPs positions and made gains from both main parties who weren't brexity enough for the nutjobs. and still you want to suggest that this doesn't point to mass desertion by remainers sick of labour's push me - pull you position?
this chap has done what in my opinion is a decent assessment of the situation
I do admire your tenacity in trying to blame US elitist remainers for brexit
Don't blame anyone who voted remain for brexit, the nutters on the other side obviously take that accolade. But this remain at all costs position has made it much more difficult to find a compromise and made it effectively impossible for labour to support a deal even if one could be agreed. The end result is pointless virtue signalling over a never going to happen referendum, and a split in the labour vote which will inevitably result in a tory govt. And if a no deal happens, the blame will be shared by people on both sides who couldn't see past their own entrenched opinions to come to a sensible compromise. Mutually assured destruction played out in real time, you really couldn't make it up.
And if a no deal happens, the blame will be shared by people on both sides who couldn’t see past their own entrenched opinions to come to a sensible compromise.
Labour ruled out Soft Brexit by having the same red lines as the Tories… an end to the Freedom of Movement, Leave the Single Market, Leave the Customs union… and now the years have passed… the chance to find a compromise is long since gone…
It's now Hard Brexit with or without a period of transition to soften the blow.
Pick one.
Or choose to stop Brexit.
Those that did what they could to find a soft compromise… "EEA for now", "Norway+" or whatever, have been squeezed out by both main parties whipping against them early in the process, and then deliberately freezing them out of the Withdrawl Agreement negotiations and running down the clock with delay after delay. Soft Brexit is dead. Time, and the leaders of the two main parties, have made this so. This is the primary reason why people will, and are, getting behind revoke or a referendum instead of a compromise deal… the compromises have been killed. For an alternative to this madness, look back at what the SNP have proposed along the way… the two main UK wide parties have screwed us off the back of a vote to Leave, by rejecting all the compromises that people are still telling remainers to get behind. Those compromises are dead. Dead.
Labour ruled out Soft Brexit by having the same red lines as the Tories
That is manifestly untrue and you know it is. You really are no better than the Faragistes with your alternative facts.
It's really not daz. No freedom of movement and 'a' customs Union. Fantasy.
I really think you need to read the link del posted above dazh
Labour intially were just as stunned as the Tories, Corbyn wanted A50 triggered immediately! & they have consistently been against FOM
They've championed A customs union, what does that mean?
And alignment to the Single Market, is that membership or not?
These were labours alternative facts
2+ years of constructive ambiguity, worked for a while, but their failure to come off the fence has doomed them.
Give it up man! Obviously a bunch of keyboard warriors on an internet forum are more in the know than a
well fundedideologically fanatical party machine who can commission it’s own private polling and focus groups,and who are hooked into the grassroots in every constituency in the country.and then ignore the results
Don’t blame anyone who voted remain for brexit, the nutters on the other side obviously take that accolade. But this remain at all costs position has made it much more difficult to find a compromise and made it effectively impossible for labour to support a deal even if one could be agreed. The end result is pointless virtue signalling over a never going to happen referendum, and a split in the labour vote which will inevitably result in a tory govt. And if a no deal happens, the blame will be shared by people on both sides who couldn’t see past their own entrenched opinions to come to a sensible compromise. Mutually assured destruction played out in real time, you really couldn’t make it up.
So what? It will be labour brexiteers who ae going to suffer the most from mutually assured destruction. No deal will kill Corbynism dead. I still wonder how Corbyn doesn't see this as the end game, no deal is the end of his political career as well as whoever is in charge of the Tories.
I'd prefer that to some shit soft brexit, which will inflame the right wing just as much as remain.
Tank the economy for a decade, let some gammons die from old age, own the narrative and make sure Nige and Jezza are blamed, kill Corbynism, make the voters who voted for Brexit feel the pain and understand the reality as opposed to the lies and exceptionalism. Offer the electorate a way out - by rejoining the EU. Remain is about the long game now and rejoining.
The people of the UK are going to pay a heavy price so that a few tax evading billionaires can continue to evade tax.
That's why "No Deal" is important to their bought and paid for Tory politicians. A deal will mean some measure of EU control over tax evasion at some point.
But this remain at all costs position has made it much more difficult to find a compromise and made it effectively impossible for labour to support a deal even if one could be agreed.
Because the uncomfortable truth here is that there is no leave "compromise" to be had. We've been through this before, why do you persist in trotting it out as fact? If someone wanted to set fire to your car, would you consider putting your windows through to be a fair compromise? However you slice it we'll all be worse off. If you've got two groups of people and can only please one or the other, choosing an action that doesn't please either of them isn't a compromise, it's insanity.
And again I'm repeating myself here, but how about this for a compromise: we revoke A50 and instead look at the reasons most (sane) people voted to leave, such as tighter immigration control and more money to the NHS, and address those issues. That would please almost everyone - remain and leave alike - bar the gammon extremists who won't be happy until the world burns. Why doesn't that option feature in your great compromise plan? Because truth be told you don't really want to please everyone at all do you, you little scamp, you're one of the ones playing with matches.
they have consistently been against FOM
As you well know labour's position was always that FoM as defined in the single market would end if we left the single market. That was a simple fact of law. Corbyn has always been clear, and repeated recently that we would have an ongoing need for two way free movement between the UK and EU. Labour have always been an open pro-immigration party so pretending otherwise by pointing out legal technicalities is daft.
They’ve championed A customs union, what does that mean?
Again, 'the' customs union was a statement of fact based on law. Labour have always been clear that we need to be in a permanent customs union with the EU that ensures frictionless trade as it exists now.
And alignment to the Single Market, is that membership or not?
It's membership in all but name. Personally I would prefer to stay in, but it's the end result that matters not the legal definition, and if it makes a deal easier to achieve then so be it.
Look, I know you're all still grasping at straws to justify cancelling brexit, it's a valiant and admirably stubborn effort. But making up straw men about whether labour policy is soft or hard brexit is transparently silly. By any definition by the outcomes it would produce labour policy is soft brexit. We would have frictionless trade, the same regulations and standards, and the same level of free movement (probably, this is the only doubt), in other words, a soft brexit.
Nahh Cougar, that's too sensible. I want to watch it all burn now so Jezza can realize how ****ing wrong he's been his whole life. I want to see him cry like May on tv.
Someone is clutching at straws, for sure @dazh. Still, at least we will still have "frictionless trade", despite our redlines on ending FoM and not being in the Single Market, just as May promised. You must be the last person to still believe this. Even she has long since given up using that phrase.
What a ****ing mess.
While the Tories are busy fighting with each other, like rats in a sack. Labour is starting to look more and more like an old bloke arguing with himself.
While down the allotment.
That's kind of the point dazh you can read labours position either way
This fence sitting isn't comprising, it's just failing to take a stand.
It's why labour are haemoraging votes to both leave & remain parties.
Leavers see Corbyn as untrustworthy* because he dares mention a 2nd ref, remainers see him as untrustworthy because he only mentions a 2nd ref after numerous caveats about general election, renegotiating the WA & other unicorns.
That's not bringing the country together, that's abdicating responsibility.
*Also worth noting the polling in Del's link that indicates Corbyn never appealed to lexit voting demographic anyway.
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It’s really not daz. No freedom of movement and ‘a’ customs Union. Fantasy.
Actually thats pretty much what Turkey has so its perfectly possible. a stupid idea yes but its feasable and possible