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Lib dems are also recovering from a complete collapse in their vote.
Thanks to their remain stnace, I hope we can agree on that much at least.
There's some good info graphics on this page
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48091592
The Conservatives took an absolute panning, ok they still hold the majority of councils, but if you look at the number of individual seats lost, it was a bloodbath for them.
That's before you consider areas that didn't have elections.
Also as someone else said above somewhere, the details of Noc areas reveal a bit more with this as it's concerned with seats rather than overall control.
It would be further useful to see all the actual votes broken down by candidate, ward and council as im sure there will be more than a few that were by the skin of the teeth.
A big fat granular spreadsheet would be nice to run some analysis on.
Lib dems are also recovering from a complete collapse in their vote.
Thanks to their remain stnace, I hope we can agree on that much at least.
Multifactorial probably Remain will have done them some good fior sure but plenty of other factors in play as well.
I really do not think that there are simplistic analyses for this
I'll go with Ockham. If it looks, feels and tastes an smells like an apple it's proabbly an apple.
Occams razer?
Yep - it continues to be about saving the party/ies, rather than doing the best for the country...
I feel its inevitable, now, and maybe just grateful that some further compromises are likely to be made in the final deal
When does the "rejoin the EU" campaign start...?
Not a chance of what hunt describes going through. The Headbangers on both sides will knock it back as it's effectively BRINO.
I see Tony Robinson has resigned from the labour party over all this.
Luvvies for Labour? Millionaire Robinson perfectly fine with bombing Iraq and creating ISIS but loses his shit because Corbyn isn’t pro-Israel?
Edukator
Member
Thanks to their remain stnace, I hope we can agree on that much at least.
In part, sure. But nothing in politics happens for one reason only, especially not in local elections
If we look over the years- and bear in mind here that it's different constituencies- the Lib Dems have polled 19%, 16%, 18%, 15%, 11% (Nick Clegg's last)
Labour have polled 28%, 35%, 27%, 31%, 29% (Miliband's last)
Tories have polled 28%, 35%, 38%, 30% (Cameron's last), 35%
The first and last are the direct comparisons in terms of seats contested, but they were also a GE year, and all but the Tories have changed leader so you still can't do a like for like there. Because again, nothing happens for one reason.
But broadly speaking- the Lib Dems had a good result this week but not an amazing one- it's mostly flattered by their fairly poor performance last time and their terrible result in 2015. Similarly Labour have polled a little badly this time, but it looks worse because they had an exceptionally good result in 2018. Both parties are within their normal expectations. Simplistic isn't the same as simple.
The move away from the major parties to independents and Greens does exist- but it's actually mostly accounted for by the Tories and UKIP.
You're misapplying the razor here btw. Suggesting that they recovered only because of their remain stance isn't the simplest explanation at all, in fact it's gobsmackingly unlikely. The simplest explanation is that there's a bunch of things happening at the same time. You're making an argument with a larger number of assumptions.
Don't get hung up on the spelling, either- it doesn't have anything much to do with William of Ockham. IIRC Ptolemy's the earliest known person to have put it in writing.
Wow, you must have your head stuck in the same sand as mine.
I have just voted in the euro elections.
Change UK- the Independant Group ffs! Should have joined the lib Dems.
Me likie this 🥳🥳🥳🥳🕺💃
The final tally has us in control of TWELVE councils and gaining more than 700 councillors across the whole country, including in many Labour and Tory strongholds.
These are the best local election results in our party’s history – by a significant margin.
To put these results in context, the record we broke was under Paddy Ashdown in 1983, when we won 487 councillors.
We went into the local elections with a clear message – a vote for the Liberal Democrats is a vote to STOP BREXIT.
Being a party member and doing my bit makes me very very proud indeed.
Change UK- the Independant Group ffs! Should have joined the lib Dems.
Its all about Ummnas ego and a chance of power. Joining the limp dems would not satisfy him. too left wing as well. Change are Tory lite
Similarly Labour have polled a little badly this time, but it looks worse because they had an exceptionally good result in 2018.
These seats were last contested in 2015, where Labour performed awfully, and then the leader left. That is a low base to drop from. Corbyn will be gone soon… he is about to completely betray the young new members that swept him into, and then re-elected him to, the top of the party. His replacement will still persue policies just as left wing I suspect, but without Milne, Murray and the other "Straight Left" Russia embracing anti EU men behind the scenes calling the shots.
No-one predicting a no-deal crash out anymore?
The EU basically called our bluff and started threatening no deal… May seems to have shown she'll keep reluctantly kicking the can to avoid it… and her party didn't move to replace her despite that… so, no… now highly unlikely this side of October.
No-one predicting a no-deal crash out anymore?
I wouldnt rule it out. The depressing thing about having an interest in history is how often you read about a complete disaster which could have been avoided but wasnt.
In some cases hindsight is a clear advantage but in plenty of others it is clear at the time many decision makers knew it would end in tears but for whatever reason couldnt control the outcome.
Most recent example I have read (well listened to) is how the Japanese despite the chances of pulling it off being minimal ended up in WWII with pearl harbour being a really hopeful roll of the dice which it doesnt seem anyone high up in Japan really expected to work.
Outside of a few fruitcakes, more who see decent enough profits that they wont have to be here to deal with the mess, and even more who at best are misinformed I dont think anyone wants it but sadly I wouldnt count it out.
Nah Labour ate going to stitch everyone up and support the tories.
Go Magic Grandad you bloody useless prat.
Never going to happen Pook. Most of what we hear at the moment is about positioning to blame the other side for a breakdown in talks. Corbyn will only make a deal for BINO. Most tories will block that as not brexity enough, most labour will block that as too brexity, most torys will automatically vote against any deal with labour. all the rest of the parties will block any deal as too brexity
Does look like the narratives being driven towards a stitch up deal.
The Sunday Times reported that the Conservatives would offer new concessions to Labour when talks restart on Tuesday, including a temporary customs union with the European Union, which would last until a national election due in June 2022.
"At that point Labour could use their manifesto to argue for a softer Brexit if they wanted to and a new Conservative prime minister could argue for a harder Brexit," a source cited by the Sunday Times said.
I reckon that would kick the can further down the road which makes it a winner 🙁 and brexits been delivered will of the people respected yada yada..
Corbyn will only make a deal for BINO.
It's almost as if you've never listened to a single word Corbyn has uttered as regards the EU, and think that because he is strongly left leaning he will do what you consider the right thing.
Corbyn will only make a deal for BINO.
I really don’t think so. The EU elections are actually the first real deadline that has happened. There have been plenty of others, but the politicians knew they would be extended. This time it is different, because this time they know they are going to get irrefutable evidence of a growing tendency towards remain. Of course the UKIP Party will grow too, but that is just a flip-flop between them and the Tories depending on whether the Tory line of the day is sufficiently xenophobic.
Both Labour and Tory are terrified of losing the support of their more ‘nationalistic’ followers and are prepared to organise a stitch up to keep it.
May is going anyway and it is in Magic Grandpa’s interest that her successor wriggles out of whatever concession he is half-heartedly pursuing. In that way, when it is pointed out to Magic Grandpa that his signature is on the agreement a year or two down the line, he can claim it has been made void because the Tory leader has ignored the concessions.
This merry go round keeps lots of people in ‘jobs’, you know....
Subscriber
Corbyn will only make a deal for BINO.
It’s almost as if you’ve never listened to a single word Corbyn has uttered as regards the EU, and think that because he is strongly left leaning he will do what you consider the right thing.
Posted 17 minutes ago
No - its precisely because I read and listen to what he says not some strange stuff folk make up
See that quote from dude above. tories are moving to a softer brexit to try to create a deal with Corbyn.
I don't much like the direction he has taken - but I do have a strong attachement to the truth
The tories are moving further and further toward BINO to try to get labour support.
TJ.
I think you live in Scotland(?)
I have just taken a big stride (looked very impressive) to the north of my living room. My living room isn’t that big, so I’d have to go outside to take another massive trouser-splitting stride towards you. The amount of movement depends on perspective.
But it is not so much about the actual movement in any case. I can drive to Newcastle to be closer to you now, but when the time really comes, if there is no rule to say my successor can’t just jump back in their Bentley and head back down the A1, then it was all just posturing.
Can there be a customs union without freedom of movement?
Can there be a customs union without freedom of movement?
I don’t know, but John Pienaar just said to Rory Stewart that a CU would make Liam Fox’s job irrelevant* so I would say it has many positives.
*Yes, I know......
Can there be a customs union without freedom of movement?
Yes - its what Turkey has. Its a really stupid position to want to be in but it is possible
Corbyns ( stupid) position is to want to be out but remain in a customs union and full alignment with all EU regulations. ~Thats BINO which of course is a complete no go to most tories.
All this basically is positioning to blame each other when the talks fail. Labour negotiators know that the tories cannot move far enough to meet them. tories the same. Its all about preparing the ground to blame the other side
So do I TJ, and come to very different conclusions to yourself.
Corbyns ( stupid) position is to want to be out but remain in a customs union and full alignment with all EU regulations. ~Thats BINO which of course is a complete no go to most tories.
Brexit in name only is EFTA, not just being in a customs union, it includes being in the single market and freedom of movement as well as a customs union.
Being in a customs union is still a hard brexit, but possibly the only hard brexit that solves the Irish border issue. And IMO if whipped for by both labour and tories would get through.
No chance of it getting thru. 100+ tories would oppose any CU and any deal with labour as not brexity enough. 100+ labour will oppose it as too brexity. 35 SNP and the rest of the small parties will oppose it as they are solidly remain. ( bar the DUP perhaps?)
It won't even get to a vote anyway a its clear it would not pass and to many tories and labour a deal with the other is simply unthinkable
So less than 300 opposing, that means it gets through. Basically all it needs is for more labour to obey their whip, than for tories to rebel. That is a comfortable victory IMO.
Of course, add in a confirmatory ref, and then I can see more tories rebelling and running scared of the democracy they preach so loudly. But that seems quite low on the Labour leaderships wants.
The shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, has poured cold water on Theresa May’s plan to offer a temporary customs union to win Labour over to a Brexit deal, saying the cross-party talks were like “trying to enter a contract with a company going into administration”.
The senior Labour politician said his party wanted to do a deal as quickly as possible but would require a permanent customs union to provide stability for businesses, not just an interim arrangement until the next election.
He also said he had no trust in the prime minister and accused her of having “blown” confidentiality after details of the talks were briefed to Sunday newspapers.
As I said - both sides are preparing the ground to blame the other for the talks failing
However, McDonnell said there was still room to do a deal and the party could be willing to compromise in some areas. He highlighted the “large numbers of MPs who actually do support a public vote, so let’s talk about the arrangement for that to take place”.
from the same article. so yes - its really obvious. The labour leadership do want the hardest of hard brexits and will not fight for a second referendum. they will go against party policy on this and the rest of the MPs will go along with them :rolls eyes:
He ( Watson) said a deal would only be done if Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, who backs a second referendum, approved it.
“Well, Keir is leading our negotiating team so unless he is happy with the deal I don’t think there is going to be one,” he said.
kelvin
Subscriber
These seats were last contested in 2015, where Labour performed awfully, and then the leader left. That is a low base to drop from.
Bloody hell Kelvin, I included 2015 in the stats- the post you're responding to proved this isn't true. Labour didn't perform awfully in the local elections in 2015, that's just demonstrably made up rubbish.
But just to prove the point further, let's go back further.
Labour have polled 28%, 35%, 27%, 31%, 29% (Miliband’s last, 2015) 31%. 29%, 38%, 37% (Miliband's first), 2010 27% (Brown's last) 23%, 24%, 27% (Blair's last), 26%, 28%, 30%.
So no, Labour did not perform awfully in 2015 in the local elections, in fact they outperformed the trend. This year's supposedly terrible result, was exactly average. Not a shining success- but certainly not a disaster, especially against the supposed trend away from the main parties which everyone is talking about.
(which as I've already shown, is in fact almost entirely UKIP and the Tories- it's just that they've fallen badly enough to create a trend that superficially seems to apply to all 4 despite the other two performing at least averagely)
Both of those quotes are heartening tj. I guess we'll see what unfolds...
But just to prove the point further, let’s go back further.
You are comparing the results of elections in different areas/seats. In the seats contested last week…
2011 37%
2015 29%
2019 28%
Both of those quotes are heartening tj. I guess we’ll see what unfolds…
The quote from Watson is just a repeating of where he stands on this… and the party supports him. But he's not the leader, unfortunately. He's pushing hard for sensible policy… but he is not setting the party's policy.
The quote from McDonnell allows for a deal not subject to a referendum to be whipped for by both main parties and narrowly passed, and for a separate vote on a referendum to go ahead with hardly any Tory backing, and lost. Nothing has changed.
No conference set party policy which they are all following
Go… on…
Does that support a deal cooked up between politicians and not put to the people in a vote? Of course it does… because it was worded to give the leadership "room" to do whatever the hell they like. It supports both pushing through a deal without a vote, and supports having a vote on a deal.
It is not a policy, it was a composite motion written to allow policy to be made up on the hoof (you could generously argue that was to give the leadership flexibility to respond to a fast changing situation).
What is Labour policy?
We know what the deputy leader and the members want it to be. We have a reasonable idea what the shadow Brexit spokesman wants. We keep arguing about what the leader wants it to be… despite it being made painfully clear by him again and again. We definitely know what Milne and others close to the leader want.
Just for giggles, what happens when we include 2007, which you dropped out of hte dataset for some reason?
2007 27%
2011 37%
2015 29%
2019 28%
Ah right, turns out 2011 was the outlier and that, like I already showed, 2015 and 2019 were average years. Of course, we already knew 2011 was an outlier- in fact, it was the second best result in the entire dataset- but it doesn't hurt to demonstrate it 2 different ways to avoid any doubt.
Claiming that the 3 average years were all bad and the one exceptionally good year is the one they all should be compared to is Goveish. All years should be above average!
Of course, we all know that it's not really as simple as "this election compares to that election"- the unitary vs multiyear council seats alone make that inevitable, even before you add in boundary changes and general elections on their own, different and irregular cycle- which is why we need to look over the longer term, to smooth individual year differences out.