Forum menu
Labour will continue to sit on the fence over this until after the locals
happy to let the tories take the backlash
the Euro elections they might actually be forced to take a position, but based on the last 3 years I wouldnt be surprised if they still didnt
Jon Lansman (@jonlansman)
Tomorrow’s Labour’s NEC must aim to unite the party membership and ensure we take both Brexit Remain supporters with us to elect a Corbyn-led transformative Socialist government. We are not far apart in what we need to say in the Euro manifesto. We need to bridge the narrow gap
narrow gap?
hard choice needs to be made, more fudging & can-kicking is no answer
Dazh, why do you continue to ignore the fact that a large majority of labour voters voted to remain? It really puzzles me, because it completely invalidates almost everything else you say.
I worry that Labour will do relatively OK at the locals, only because the tories will be hurt most by brexit
so corbyn can keep his pro-brexit stance and frustrate the members & labour voters
https://www.itv.com/news/2019-04-28/labour-set-to-retain-equivocal-referendum-position/
Labour hints at backing Brexit deal without promise of referendum
So, this championing of democracy and restoring decision-making to the members is going well, isn’t it?
Yet Labour still saying in the saem article:
“Our party policy has always been that firstly we want to get a Brexit deal that puts our economy and living standards first and protects our environmental protections, workplace protections, health and safety standards,” she said.
“If we don’t get a deal that satisfies those objectives – if it’s a damaging deal, a damaging Tory Brexit deal, or there’s a risk of us moving towards a no deal – in that circumstance, we’ve said that all options should be on the table, and that includes campaigning for a public vote,” she added.
Clearly still unicorns, as none of that is campatable with Mays deal.
So is it just more fence sitting, or are they quietly ruling out anything but the softest of brexits?
why do you continue to ignore the fact that a large majority of labour voters voted to remain?
I don't. I do however recognise that a large number - no idea if it's a majority but I suspect it is - of those who voted to leave live in marginal constituencies which labour can't afford to lose. whether labour remainers like it or not, labour cannot win an election without acknowledging the views of these leave voters.
or are they quietly ruling out anything but the softest of brexits?
this
Its been what they have been doing for ages. " respect the referendum" and do as little damage as possible
Labour will back a confirmatory referendum unless they have a chance to deliver it
I do however recognise that a large number – no idea if it’s a majority but I suspect it is – of those who voted to leave live in marginal constituencies which labour can’t afford to lose.
Apart from about 3 seats, the Leave vote in marginals closely follows the UKIP+Tory share of the vote in the general election that preceded the referendum. By supporting Brexit, Labour is acting for all the voters who voted AGAINST Labour. Now, politicians should indeed act for all, not just those who elect them… but completely ignoring your own voting base is a bit odd… when it is so overwhelming against what you are doing in their name.
but the softest of brexits?
Not this again. Whipped against EEA, whipped against staying in the Customs Union and repeatedly stating that Freedom of Movement of workers must end. If you want a "softest of Brexits", the SNP published several papers on different ways of achieving this. The Labour leadership have just plowed on with enabling a Hard Brexit.
but completely ignoring your own voting base is a bit odd
I think you're assuming that labour's voting base is the same group of metropolitan middle class people who were such big fans of Blair. It really isn't. The main group of labour voters I worry about is the young, but I think even they are capable of seeing the bigger picture instead of obsessing about the single issue of brexit.
The Labour leadership have just plowed on with enabling a Hard Brexit.
Sigh. Donald Trump has a lot to answer for.
I think you’re assuming that labour’s voting base is the same group of metropolitan middle class people who were such big fans of Blair.
I'm assuming no such thing… not living or have grown up in a city, living in the North, son of a lorry driver, having never voted for Blair, but did vote Labour at the last General Election. Everyone I know who voted Labour (including people who are not only party members, but elected officials) voted Remain. Those people who I know voted Tory voted Leave. The correlation is pretty strong here. It is nearly everywhere.
As for the Trump comment… is that because you think that Labour continually saying that Freedom of Movement of workers must end is some kind of "fake news"? There is no "softest of Brexits" with that red line. Only a Hard Brexit.
I’m assuming no such thing
Well I have a contrasting source of information. Everyone I know where I live now who voted labour and remain are classic middle class liberal hipster types. Everyone back home on a mostly white working class council estate voted labour and brexit. Wouldn't know about tories as I don't know or associate with anyone who openly voted for them.
It's weird because before the referendum all my mates were hubristically banging on about how there was no way remain would lose for all the logical and rational reasons we all know. The only people telling them otherwise were the likes of myself and another mate who came from or lived in working class areas outside of the big cities. We were right then and I'm pretty sure we're right now. I see little real evidence that much has changed, and think much of the pro-remain second referendum/revocation case is based on the same delusional self-reinforcing groupthink as was in evidence before the referendum.
That's the sad thing about Brexit. It's not based on fact, and was won by creating devison so that people who may be swayed into voting remain would be made to feel like they are being coned by "metropolitan elite" or other such bullshit phrases.
I see little real evidence that much has changed, and think much of the pro-remain second referendum/revocation case is based on the same delusional self-reinforcing groupthink as was in evidence before the referendum.
Exaclty the same where I am (Bassetlaw) - in fact people are even more frustrated.
dazH (we have very similar views, shaped by the same experiences it appears.)
self-reinforcing groupthink
Says someone who doesn't even know anyone who voted for the most popular party at the last two general elections, and still throws about terms like "hipster" and "elite". Try widening your circle.
The country is still just as divided as ever, we can all agree on that… probably even more so now that people are faced with the choice of how to Leave… rather than imagining the benefits of them all, and the disadvantages of none… but groupthink isn't the problem… quite the opposite… it is the lack of consensus for any kind of Brexit at all. Anything the politicians cook up will have real trade offs at the heart of it… and as a result will be almost universally seen as being worse than remaining.
The only people telling them otherwise were the likes of myself and another mate who came from or lived in working class areas outside of the big cities
I also thought Leave would squeak it. Still think the result would have gone their way even more so if an MP hadn't been killed. That doesn't give the country direction though, we're still at the point where everything was promised to everyone, and at some point either the back room boys and girls cook something up and we just have to take it… or an actual proposal is put to the people to weigh up against what we currently have.
That’s the sad thing about Brexit. It’s not based on fact, and was won by creating devison so that people who may be swayed into voting remain would be made to feel like they are being coned by “metropolitan elite” or other such bullshit phrases.
Yup rather than be honest with Labour voting brexiters dazh etc refers to labour would rather just Keep pushing the same Brexit myths (see triggering A50 immediately, ending FOM, everything Barry Gardiner says on newsnight etc)
Latest yougov poll of North & Midlands, says that vast majority of labour voters think Brexit is a mistake
But that's probably just my hipster metropolitan elite groupthink bias 😉
But that’s probably just my hipster metropolitan elite groupthink bias
As I stated, this isn't going to end well for labour with the destruction of the Tories like Daz seems to think it will.
It's going to end with a resurgent Tory party and a Labour party that in the long term is split by those who feel permanently betrayed by Labour.
UKIP types will get over the annoyance Over the length of time brexit is taking and Vote Tory again, remain supporters won't vote labour again though. The only way to destroy the Tory party is to stop brexit completely.
Maybe that is Corbyns plan. Let the Tories take us out and rip up the NHS, workers rights etc and then hope that will see a resurgent "people's party" once folk have suffered a bit of pain in the longer term?
Two steps back, one step forward.
Tories will NOT recover from this and its doing them huge damage. Labour will recover assuming in the end they get it right on a second ref
This is the end of the tory party
UKIP types will get over the annoyance Over the length of time brexit is taking and Vote Tory again, remain supporters won’t vote labour again though. The only way to destroy the Tory party is to stop brexit completely.
Whereas I predict pretty much the opposite. UKIP will grow as the far right party it always was is now even clearer. Remain supporters will vote Labour as when Brexit is done/underway the more important stuff comes back into play where only Labour can do the right things and no other party has the numbers to get into government.
Better give some reasons:
Tory membership- is collapsing now well under 100 000. they are also aging and far more radical than the MPS. They are not recruiting young members or voters> Their base for mobilising the vote no longer exists.
The tories are losing corporate donors
They are losing support in the press
They are going to lose massively in the local elections thus reducing their power base further.
They are going to lose seats massively in the European elections
the right wing vote is now split in 3.
The internal infighting has gone so far that they will lose votes of the back of that - the votors hate divided parties
The tories have lost their reptation for competence
Lots of wishful thinking here. Tories see the death of Labaour, Labour fans see the death of the Tories. For either of them to die a new force or two need to build support and apart from the Brexit party that isn't happening.
Meanwhile no-one is trying to negotiate with Brussels, no-one has a plan, no-one can form a concensus on either side of the house and October looms.
Edukator - the right wing vote is now going to be split 3 or 4 ways. the left wing vote ( in england) is not.
The editor of the Express is now a remainer as is that of The Mail. I don't which papers are pro Farage even though he is plastered over the BBC.
the left wing vote ( in england) is not.
I thought you voted Green TJ?
Agreed that the Greens and/or anyone else are not suddenly going to be polling what the Brexit party is… but pretending that "left" voters will not vote for parties other than Labour, when you yourself vote for a party other than Labour, and seem to be strongly in favour of left wing policies, is odd.
LAB: 33% (-3)
CON: 26% (-3)
BREX: 17% (+17)
LDEM: 6% (-2)
CHUK: 4% (+4)
GRN: 4% (-)
UKIP: 4% (-7)
The poll from a few pages back tells me Labour is losing as many votes as the Conservatives. The centre left vote is split four ways.
It amazes me how Change & the Lib Dems are not able to get more traction. Should Chuka et al just have joined the Lib Dems? Lib Dems need a new leader, CHUK needs party machinery.
Should Chuka et al just have joined the Lib Dems?
Probably. They seem to think there is a (small) chance of repeating what happened in France by creating a new "force". It's very unlikely though. They probably know that. It's all "a bit of a mess". If they were thinking that they could just help move the policy agenda in either of their "old" parties, then that seems to be failing as well. Only possible glint of light for them is a bucket load of more defections when Boris or similar leads one party, and Corbyn doubles down on Brexit in the manifesto for the next general election for the other. Still not sure voters will move with them even then. Poltics may be as tribal as ever when a general election happens.
Yeah I think the Tory party dying is wishful thinking, for sure it will need to change at some point and either consolidate as a right wing party or move back towards the centre (with those at odds with that leaving and joining other parties, I can't see a new party getting any meaningful traction). Which way it goes will likely depend on how Brexit goes
Greens poll higher than UKIP. Brexit change, Limp Dems and almost equal with the tories around here. Representation at all scottish government levels.
Ummna is all about himself thats why he didn't join the lib dems. He is also far too right wing. He wants the glory. fortuataly a useful idiot in that he will split off far more tory votes than labour
The centre left vote is split four ways.
Who? We have one UK centre left part of any importance - Labour ( and SNP in Scotland). Limp dems are very regional and in most parts of the UK irrelevant. Change is a right wing party
So, Scotts will/can vote green, but that won't happen in England TJ? Is that your bet? Lots of "left" voters will begin to look beyond Labour… not enough to win many/any seats… but that was the case for UKIP when they were taking Tory votes pre-referendum.
Your argument that the "left" vote will stay with Labour, despite you yourself not voting Labour, still seems odd to me. Yes, I know the voting system up there favours the Greens more, so support turns more readily into representation… but people won't keep holding their noses and voting Labour come what may. Everyone has a point where they say "enough", and the next general election could be a shock. Many seats will be about how many Brexit voters will return to the Tories, and how many Remain voters will return to Labour, rather then voting for an alternative that probably can't win that seat. Remember that the Tories will have a new leader, pushing hard unicorns to win back Brexit voters.
Maybe that is Corbyns plan. Let the Tories take us out and rip up the NHS, workers rights etc and then hope that will see a resurgent “people’s party” once folk have suffered a bit of pain in the longer term?
The problem with that plan is that its already been happening for the last forty years. The public have sucked it up because it has been drip fed to them for so long.
It amazes me how Change & the Lib Dems are not able to get more traction. Should Chuka et al just have joined the Lib Dems? Lib Dems need a new leader, CHUK needs party machinery.
Because people think that only one of two party's can win, thanks to FPTP, even though these elections use a better system. The tories and labour are essentially four political parties Cluster****ed into two.
This is the end of the tory party
Wishful thinking
Yeah I think the Tory party dying is wishful thinking, for sure it will need to change at some point and either consolidate as a right wing party or move back towards the centre
The problem is, that as Brexit keeps on demonstrating, this country seems to have become increasingly right wing. The Tory party is reflecting that. Farage and the nutters in the Tory ranks have been incredibly successful in their agenda of blaming everything on immigration and the 'liberal elite'
Despite everything thats gone on with the utter cluster-**** of the last few years, remain/leave voting intentions have barely moved.
Its horrible to have to face up to it but the 2012 Olympic myth that we're an open tolerant and inclusive country has been exposed as just that. Unfortunately the reality is that a massive percentage of this countries population is far from that ideal. It is, in fact, suspicious, parochial, small-minded, petty, intolerant , backward-gazing and insular. The Tory party increasingly reflects that, whatever the rest of us think.
So it isn't going to shrivel and die. It'll move further to the right and people will carry on voting for it as it does.
UKIP didn't decline because it became too right wing. It declined because the Tory party co-opted all its policies, thus negating the need for its existence. Farage's latest hobby-horse came into existence because there are still plenty of people who think the Tory party are nowhere near right-wing enough
Agreed, the Tory party will continue to change, it will not die. The next leadership contest will reflect how much politics has changed since 2016… expect the Bannon playbook to be in use… prepare to be ashamed to be British.
The tories issue is they have effectivly split. into factions. No matter which faction takes control they are effed totally. If the brexiteer faction takes over yes they will kill UKIP / Brexit party but they will lose all their centrtist votes. If they go centrist they lose all the brxit votes.
I will eat my hat if in 10 years we have a tory party with over 20% of the vote UK wide.
I'd love you to be right. But I doubt you are even close. Once the Tory party has moved to where the likes of Farage & Bannon want it, the Brexit party will disappear, having seen off UKIP, and all those voters will flood back to a Tory party "under new management".
I'd love it if you were right Uncle Jezza, but I fear you're very, very wrong. Politics in this country (like many others) is becoming increasingly dominated by populists embracing a toxic form of nationalism. Its the end result of a narrative thats been going on for decades blaming the Eu, immigrants and the 'liberal elite' for all our woes
The Tory party is both reflecting and encouraging this as, despite Farages best efforts, they are the main beneficiary of this direction of travel.
Remember Dave hugging hoodies and huskies to 'detoxify the Tory brand'?
Seems a very distant memory now, doesn't it?
This is the end of the tory party
Indeed as said before wishful thinking, their membership will continue to wane, but as long as their donors keep stumping up the cash to push their objectives, they will continue to operate as the "acceptable" face of right-wing politics in this country.
The only fly in the ointment is their "party of business" mantra, which has been shot to death with their handling of brexit, this is why the period between us potentially leaving the EU and the next general election is critical to the tories. They will definitely take us further down the low tax, low regulation low skill, gig economy route, and more than likely sign trade deals that will be so one sided it would make operation desert storm look like a fair contest...
So will the people rail against it at the next election? The above is what some in Labour are hoping for so a "socialist utopia" can be born. I can only hope that people see this as the endgame for the thatcherite libertarian policies we have been under the last forty years, the level of decay and corruption is at its highest, and maybe people will vote accordingly.
Two things though:
What will the Labour party be in 2022?
Count on the electorate to do the right thing?
What will the Labour party be in 2022?
If it were a car, it'd be one of these...
