[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

So this from BBC's updates:

What can't the BBC report?

* The BBC stops short of actually encouraging people to vote.

* While the polls are open, it is a criminal offence for anyone, not just broadcasters, to publish anything about the way in which people have voted in the referendum, where that is based on information given by voters after they have voted.

[b]* The BBC can't report anything emerging from exit polls (which, by definition, are asking people how they actually voted), although the broadcasters have not commissioned any exit polls for the referendum.
[/b]
* No opinion poll on any issue relating to the referendum can be published by broadcasters until after the polls have closed.

So has anyone commissioned an exit poll?

A narrow Leave and Cameron going back to EU could be. Ery explosive, I think in that case he faces an immediate leadership challenge so at that point its out of his hands. I think henprobably faces a challenge anyway. As such there could well be a period of a few months where not a lot happens

The torygraph link said there were no exit polls commissioned so in reality it's nothing till the results come in, you lot should know by breakfast...

While the polls are open, it is a criminal offence for anyone, not just broadcasters, to publish anything about the way in which people have voted in the referendum

I wish someone would tell Facebook that!

I think henprobably faces a challenge anyway.

I will try and brave it out into the small hours. I suspect, like I do for the US PEs, UK GEs and any Superbowl not involving the Steelers, the beer will get me around 0200. 🙂

So has anyone commissioned an exit poll?

I do find this very strange although from what I inderstand exit polls are normally very acurate as 1) they ask 10,000 people (bs normal phone stuff of 1000) and 2) they ask how people voted last time - this goves them bery accurate swing info which they can feed back into past results by constituency. As we've not had such a Referendum in r cent times they can't do that. Perhaps thats the reason there are no exit polls ?

There's a political science argument against referendums that I sort of agree with: that if you believe in the primacy of a representative parliament, then you dont undermine it with referendums. That's one that David Allen Green ( https://twitter.com/DavidAllenGreen) bangs on about. However, on the other hand I think in this case that, yes, there is a legitimate reason for a referendum because to the extent that a Leave vote is "anti establishment" the UK political establishment is incapable of positioning itself (through FPTP, two party system) such that the electorate can "Vote for" an anti-establishment ticket. See how poorly UKIP have fared nationally in parliament compare to a c.50% Leave vote.

But I stand by my view that THIS (In or Out) question should not have been put to the electorate in a referendum.

Apart from 10% of voters who inhabit the nuttier end of the spectrum, for most people the EU and how we live in and with it, is a nuanced relationship. To vote Leave should not be taken as a sign the voter is a raving racist bigot, just as vote Remain is not an indication that someone relishes the idea of a federalist European superstate. But to listen to the rhetoric you'd be hard pressed to find the shades of grey. And those shades of grey are not on offer in the referendum.

Indeed...the Beeb's post GE election poll was very accurate. I'm sure many of STW's right wing forelock tuggers will remember masturbating furiously as soon as Dimbleby announced it. Just thought it strange that no-one had commissioned one this time. I suppose it would give them little to speculate about all night. 🙂

masturbating furiously

Actually, I was cashing in my winning bet 😛

While masturbating furiously. Two hands and all that...

maybe both [i]my[/i] hands were dealing with the betting slip while someon......[NOPE MOD]

There's a political science argument against referendums that I sort of agree with

It's like, okay, why don't you *ing do what we pay you to do which is run the *ing country and make your *ing mind up?
What are you asking the people for? 99 per cent of the people are thick as pig shit.

What to expect

12.30am

Sunderland reports. Expect Leave to have a lead of six points if the national vote is tied. Sunderland will be followed by Wandsworth and the City of London, most likely reporting huge leads for Remain.

A slow trickle of results will keep the broadcasters occupied. Newcastle and Hartlepool will illustrate the difference between big cities and towns. Remain will hope to have a double-digit lead in Newcastle, but will rightly fear a big loss in Hartlepool.

2am

The first big wave of results, with 22 councils expected to declare at or around this time. Worth keeping an eye on Wrexham, one of the more Eurosceptic parts of Wales, which would be close if the national result is close.

2.30am

Castle Point in Essex – one of the most Eurosceptic authorities in the country, and an area in which Ukip has often done well – declares around this time. Perhaps more useful as a signpost are the two Welsh declarations expected about now – Swansea and Caerphilly. Caerphilly, in particular, is likely to be finely balanced between Leave and Remain.

3am

By this point, we’ll be roughly two-fifths of the way there. A key area to focus on is City of Lancaster, which will probably vote the same way as the rest of the UK.

3.30am

Edinburgh reports along with Aberdeen, Dumfries and a number of other Scottish local authorities. Edinburgh is tipped by Ladbrokes to have the highest vote in favour of Remain, so the outcome isn’t in doubt, but turnout might be important.

4am

The motherlode – 88 areas are expected to report at around this time. It may be at this point that broadcasters start considering whether to make a projection.

5am

By now roughly nine out of 10 areas should have reported. The remainder are mostly rural areas which lean towards Leave, sometimes quite heavily.

6am

If no projections are forthcoming by this point, the referendum may be achingly close. Sefton, expected to report about now, is one of a number of Labour-leaning areas in Merseyside that might disappoint the Labour party by very narrowly voting to leave.

7am

The last batch of areas to report. Most of these favour Leave, Arun in West Sussex and Waveney in Suffolk particularly so. If the result is still not known by this stage, it is almost certain that some constituent parts of the UK have voted to leave the EU while others have voted to remain, opening up a constitutional crisis lasting far beyond Friday morning.

All timings are approximate.

Source: Electoral Commission.

... Cameron having the backbone ...

That's your mistake, right there.

Brexit - pie and mash
Remain - bratwurst und kartoffelsalat

It seems to me that Brexit means no pizza or baguettes in the future, but curry, chinese, mexican, etc. would still be available.

Re, the exit poll question. I understand from an article I posted a link to somewhere (can't remember, too many threads) that an exit poll in this instance wouldn't provide meaningful results. GE exit polls only work because the voting pattern can be compared with previous elections and a swing calculated.

BTW, did the Electoral Commission really use the term "achingly close"?

Oppps! Look at the body language of the young BritLand PM who is a bit like lamb to slaughter innit.

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And those shades of grey are not on offer in the referendum.

Of course they are - there is plenty of information to come to a conclusion - I am very comfortable being a highly skeptical remainer and plenty others are as well.

But generally you are searching for a political utopia - there is no consistent block to side with - the Swedes were on side but then they lost power, the Dutch are potentially keen but don't want to play into Wilders hands and are stuck with the Euro, etc etc. There is no good time as there are constant small changes in the dynamics - Cameron has done ok, not great but OK.

Cameron has done ok, not great but OK

Id hate to see what his failure looks like.

Even "Count Dracula" said so ...

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it is almost certain that some constituent parts of the UK have voted to leave the EU while others have voted to remain, opening up a constitutional crisis lasting far beyond Friday morning.

How is that any different from large parts of the country voting for different parties and governments in power with less than 50% of the vote

So the EU is both Marxist and neo-liberal, is it?

Hmm.

Result of the Referendum (though I'm guessing we'll all know by then anyway) will be announced in Manchester Town Hall.

Cameron backbone - he had the courage to hold two very contentiius referendums. I doubt we'll ever see that again

BB, quite.
The only constitutionally (even slightly) capable region would be Scotland, and they're very much in.

As Jeremy Cliffe (at the Economist) describes it: there's an increasing cosmopolitan/non-cosmopolitan rift across the nation.

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any forex-ers here who can provide a link to "nearly" live EUR:GBP currency graph?

molgrips - Member
So the EU is both Marxist and neo-liberal, is it?

Hmm.

It's the perfect bogeyman for all loonies.

So the EU is both Marxist and neo-liberal, is it?

Yep, I think it was Marx who said that the means of production, distribution, and exchange, should be in private hands.

He would nod approvingly at EU directives which dictate that government services should be opened up to for-profit organisations.

molgrips - Member

So the EU is both Marxist and neo-liberal, is it?

Hmm.

The EU being just like the Soviet Union....

any forex-ers here who can provide a link to "nearly" live EUR:GBP currency graph?

http://www.xe.com/

[img] ?1606231045[/img]

It's the perfect bogeyman for all loonies.

Because of course anyone who doesn't subscribe to the neo-liberal agenda of privatizing everything is some sort of loony.

cheers TG

It's the perfect bogeyman for all loonies.

Aristotle +1 - everyone should know that by now

I thought the hedgies had cornered the market in exit polls.

Stoner why trade direction, be long volatility?

any forex-ers here who can provide a link to "nearly" live EUR:GBP currency graph?

http://www.hifx.co.uk/marke****ch.aspx

EU are speaking in forked tongue ...

You mean they're a bunch of cowboys ?

I think you may need to convince this bloke.

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no trading. Not even hedging summer holiday money. Just intrigued as to market volatility over course of day following opinion polls.

ernie_lynch - Member

Because of course anyone who doesn't subscribe to the neo-liberal agenda of privatizing everything is some sort of loony.

I didn't say that. Loonies of all persuasions seem to hate the EU.

[b]Bow to your new elite master overlord bosses ...[/b]

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cheers slowoldman, even better site.

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I didn't say that. Loonies of all persuasions seem to hate the EU.

Well if you are opposed to the neo-liberal agenda opposing the EU makes a lot of sense. I don't think it provides evidence that you are some kind of loony.

I question the sanity of those who claim to be socialist and yet support the EU.

It's a bit like claiming that you're going to vote Tory after saying that you despise everything that the Tories have done.

"You need to speak to someone" would be my suggestion.

The last opinion poll had leave in front by a point

The bookies odds suggest Remain will be a clear winner

The financial markets are stable with nothing to suggest Leave winning

99% of people who I've heard or read opinions from are firmly in Remain

All very tense

People who have a hatred of the "neo-liberal agenda" dislike the EU intensely.

People who hate "socialists" dislike the EU intensely.

People who have a Nationalist bent dislike the EU intensely.

Racists dislike the EU.

The ignorant hate the EU because they don't know what "intensely" means, that Nigel Farage fella likes a pint and he,
"tells it like it is"(n't).

Normal people who don't believe the EU to be perfect, but believe that it is better to be in the EU than out of it, and would prefer to maintain the status quo, rather than "take a punt" on leaving, for any of the reasons listed above, don't dislike the EU intensely.