Voting Labour would be suicide
Whereas having a Tory government just leads to suicides. Don't worry though, it is only the less privileged who are suffering.
But if we are prepared to drop the leather and go up to 4 years old…. ah, now we can do something.
The EU would reopen discussions and approve an extension for them to take place if we’re prepared to drop some of our red lines.
Agree. Good theory but won't happen in practice due to the politics within the parties. All that is needed is a consensus based on the differing requirements that at least 320 MPs (across party) can agree to. Don't even need to engage with ERG as they are irrelevant.
In ten years time when the UK has a center based none political agenda that serves the people
Really?
you should see whats been happening in parliament
Brexit has divided the country for a generation, & still no one knows what it is!
Yes, just caught a glimpse of the news late yesterday.
Pity the ALL the politicians can't sit down to talk properly.
The EU would reopen discussions and approve an extension for them to take place if we’re prepared to drop some of our red lines.
I do hope you're right but i don't see it that way, unless the red lines are freedom of movement and full compliance.
I’m not sure how you can say he isn’t uniting the opposition or holding the government to account. There is clear evidence that he is: biggest defeat in history, Labour’s six tests for the Brexit deal.
The defeat of mayway would have happened with out without Corbyn, though I'll accept the margin may not have been so high but, significantly, the margin isn't labour MPs it's conservative ones who tend not to pay much regard to their own whip let alone Labour's.
His job as leader of the PLP is to unite the Labour party, which arguably is the opposition. he's - from what i gather - not even on speaking terms with many of them, that's hardly united, the unity in the PLP is a shared hatred of the conservatives and, fear of losing their jobs if they disagree too loudly.
Even if he was all things to all men in the PLP, the job of leader of the opposition through isn't the same, it's not to be shouty and oppose on the principal of opposing government policy it's to oppose by debate and provide alternatives, to table amendments that shape motions to broaden their support, he's not doing that.
The six tests are a joke. Even without needing your solution to be achievable in practice can you come up with any solution (use as many unicorns as you like) that can be categorically said to pass them? The tests are deliberately impossible to pass, they have no quantifiable indicators and rely soley on JC and JMcD admitting they couldn't do better.
Yes he's now called for no deal to be categorically ruled out, up until last week official policy, or what there was of it, was all options. It's clear parliament won't support no deal so he's very publicly dumping it, it's not leadership or creating unity to very loudly take credit for the collective decision of everyone else.
So lets play fantasy Brexit.
Your goal is to Leave the EU, it's the will of the people after all* 320 votes is what you need to get through parliament.
We know Theresa May managed 202 Votes on her deal. Of those 197 were Tories.
110 Tories voted against her. Out of these 70-80 are ERG nutters who want out at any cost - they are lost to May - 30 to 40 are Remainers who want a better deal or a second ref. Lets call is 80 ERG and 30 Tory Remain.
Tory Remainers can probably be brought on side with a move to a softer Brexit. The DUP will probably support any form of Brexit that removes the back stop. A softer Brexit that includes the Customs Union would remove the need for a back stop.
So on that side of the house you have 190 Tory loyalists / payroll memebers. 30 Tory Remainers and 10 DUP. So that's 230 that would vote for a softer Brexit if May proposed it.
She needs 90 votes from the other side of the house. The SNP have said that while a 2nd referendum is their 1st preference they will support a deal that include a customs union. That's 35 votes. So you need 55 Labour back-benchers to support any new withdrawal bill. There are 256 Labour MPs so less than a quarter of them are needed in this scenario.
If the SNP can't be persuaded then 90 Labour MPs would be needed. Its still well under half.
This fantasy is of course predicated on May being willing to compromise and move some of her red lines
*was the narrow will of the people 30 months ago, but going backing and checking if its changed is anti-democratic apparently
Chewkw,how did you wangle the early release? Surely not good behaviour?
All that is needed is a consensus based on the differing requirements that at least 320 MPs (across party) can agree to.
at this stage I think some red lines have to be removed before consensus can be reached.
The extent might change the closer we get to the No Deal abyss, but the majority in the house are against no deal, as are the larger majority of the public - and that's before they see how crap things get under no deal. I cannot see that the government will take us off that abyss, in spite of how idiotic it has been so far - the grown ups will save us, surely? A government that does that will in time be seen for what they did and pay a huge price.
The six tests are a joke...
The tests may well be impossible to pass! But that's kind of the point. They aren't "Labour's vision of what Labour would deliver if they were in a position to negotiate"; they are Labour holding the Tories accountable to what they claimed they would deliver on Brexit. It's an attempt to make someone accountable to delivering all the dreams and unicorns that were promised.
Yes he’s now called for no deal to be categorically ruled out, up until last week official policy, or what there was of it, was all options.
Unfortunately, I think that had to be the case. Coming out in favour of remain or a second ref would have immediately taken the spotlight off the Tories and onto Labour in the form of MSM "Saboteur" headlines, and alienated large numbers of labour voters. It's no good standing there and saying "we know best, we're not leaving the EU" - I think that's a large part of what caused the Leave majority in the first place.
anti-no deal is the only thing that Parly has a declared majority for. That should be focus of first votes/Bill amendment as it will create a base to build from.
It would make the ERG increasingly irrelevant
interesting article in PE (I know) but refers to a poll of voters asking what it would take to persuade them to get behind a second referendum.
Being told they were wrong, doesn't cut it. Even being told that the result will be a reduction in living standards, etc., is still seen as a price worth paying. But tell them that they were lied to and there was cheating in the referendum process - then it swings to a 62:38 in favour
All this business about moving red lines or the six tests is fantasy IMO.
We do not hold the whip hand, the EU does, because it's their club and their rules.
They are much bigger and more powerful than the UK, so they cannot be bludgeoned into agreeing to our terms, bludgeoning being the usual British tactic. We are getting a taste of being on the other side of the table than we are used to, and the only red lines they care about are their own.
In other words, we are supplicants, and the only red lines that matter are those the more powerful EU lay down.
Our problem is our negotiations are being done as if we are still The Empire with the world's most powerful navy, billions of potential foot soldiers, and the resources to match. Arrogance is not a good tactic in those circumstances.
Our politicians need a reality check about our new place in the world without the EU behind us.
We have no "friends", just vultures waiting for the opportunity to strip us clean. Bye bye NHS, workers rights, humane welfare etc etc.
I do believe that once we adjust to the new circumstances post Brexit, we will eventually prosper again, but in the interim we are going to be like a country that has been comprehensively trashed in an all out war.
Maybe that's Labour's opportunity after the next election post Brexit. To do what Atlee's govt did after defeating Churchill's Tories, namely re-introduce all their reforms.
anti-no deal is the only thing that Parly has a declared majority for. That should be focus of first votes/Bill amendment as it will create a base to build from.
It's fine to know that this is what the majority wants, but not sure how that works though without government support to timetable...... as it stands we either agree to *something* or get no deal on 29th Mar, that is how the law reads. There is no (legal) 'anything but not that' option at this point. Hence to have time to agree to 'something' else means that the extension has to be the first activity in my mind, just so the clock can't be run down to a point where Mayway becomes the 'anything but not that'
From Labour manifesto 2017.
A Conservative Brexit will weaken
workers’ rights, deregulate the
economy, slash corporate taxes,
sideline Parliament and democratic
accountability, and cut Britain off
from our closest allies and most
important trading partners.
Labour recognises that leaving the
EU with ‘no deal’ is the worst possible
deal for Britain and that it would do
damage to our economy and trade.
We will reject ‘no deal’ as a viable
option and if needs be negotiate
transitional arrangements to avoid
a 'cliff-edge’ for the economy.
That is two years ago.
As I vaguely understand things... May has to bring new(?) proposals back on Monday after her the deal was voted down on Weds. Amends can be tabled at that point I believe. Hilary Benn withdrew an anti-no deal amendment before the last vote to avoid muddying the waters for the main vote
If anyone has can link to a clear explanation of the Parly process on all this it would probably be useful
With Corbyn in charge, very few. Because thanks to rhetoric like yours binners, they all think he’s a rabid commie (which is far from true) and/or ineffectual.
This.
And the centre ground seems to have forgotten how all the other rotten policies of the Conservatives have affected the country whilst being in the EU. It's Brexit, Brexit and more Brexit.
Labour are more than that (and clearly in a bit of a mash), which is why the conundrum exists today.
I’m not voting for a pro Brexit government to remove a pro Brexit government.
Then I would look further up the road than that.
You've seen the Tories devastation under the EU?
Then I would look further up the road than that.
How far up the road? When do you think that the chaos and damage of Brexit will end, if we don't stop it?
You’ve seen the Tories devastation under the EU?
Do you think leaving the EU will help, in any way, to avoid more of that?
"Vote for Brexit, or get Brexit"
Once the Labour Party adopt a policy that offers a way out of Brexit, I'll vote for them again, and even campaign for them.
As I vaguely understand things… May has to bring new(?) proposals back on Monday after her the deal was voted down on Weds. Amends can be tabled at that point I believe.
Me too.
But if everyone else refuses to talk unless she removes no deal as an option and she refuses, could she return and say that plan B is basically now to let the existing process run its course and we leave with No Deal on 29.3. Possibly then sticking up two fingers and moonwalking robotically out of the chamber.
Needs no new legislation / motion and hence there's nothing for people to start to table amendments to. What happens then - i'll just say tick-tock at this point for effect - can MP's present their own motions (in a shit-show such as this that could easily have two meanings) and does it rely on the Speaker breaking convention to create space for them? Or is the only killswitch option at that point for another No Confidence vote which at that point might then get the necessary moderate tory support to succeed.
I'm not a politico but as Laura K has said recently to a geek like her this is about as exciting as it gets.
could she return and say that plan B is basically now to let the existing process run its course and we leave with No Deal on 29.3
No, because she'd not only lose ministers, but MPs would resign the Tory whip if she openly said she was "in favour" of no-deal… she just has to (lie) that it can't be ruled out, for (more lies) negotiating reasons, and because (lies) it would be against the express will of the people to deny them Brexit, even in its most damaging form. She has to keep chasing a deal, and present no-deal as the result of not getting one.
I think that May is required (by earlier legislation) to keep bringing the deal until it is passed. In theory she could keep coming to Parly losing the vote and we crash out - but each time gives opportunity for amends to Brexit deal I believe and I can't see Parly allowing sleepwalking to no deal. Enough Tories will realise that if TM is so pigheaded as to do this the election ramifications for them down the road would not be good
I will have a dig about to see if I can find a guide to the process.
With Corbyn in charge, very few. Because thanks to rhetoric like yours binners, they all think he’s a rabid commie (which is far from true) and/or ineffectual.
My issue isn't with on his otherr policies on social justice etc. I'm a lifelong, natural labour voter who despises the Tory's with every fibre of my being.
But, no matter what Jezza or the rest of us would like, there's only one game in town right now... Brexit. Because everything else hinges on this. You can't instigate an enormous investment programme in building a fairer society if your tax revenues go through the floor
We have to deal with the world as it i, not with how we'd like it to be, and this is the reality. You can't build anything on warm wordss and wishful thinking.
Over Brexit Corbyn has been worse than useless. Brexit is a right wing project. Its a con by the hard right to turn us into a sweatshop tax haven. It was the duty of the Labour Leader to point this out during the referendum campaign, but unfortunately he was busy.
He has then facilitated and enabled this takeover by the far right at every turn, and whipped his party to do the same. So we are where we are.
Like most people with left-leaning liberal values I can see that this has to be stopped, because once we're out things are going to go to shit at a terrifying rate of knots. Once we're out off the EU all the achievements of the labour party - workers rights, the NHS, education, benefits, environmental controls and any semblance of social justice - will be under seige, and it'll be open season for the ultra free marketeers
That we have a leader of the labour party who can't see this, or can see it but won't opppose it, is a pretty depressing state of affairs
I'm not angry, Jeremy, I'm just dissapointed
Actually.... no... I'm really really really ****ing angry!!
I'm lost...
I thought maybot 3.0 had got to table her plan b by tomorrow....it looks like it says 29th on the news
3 working days. Monday.
But then they've cunningly postponed the debate on it.
What's the rush?
Tick. Tock.
3 working days, she tables the plan on Monday, but won't allow debate on it until the 29th.
Hmmm - she's is tabling a motion on Monday which I assume will buy her more time to rework the deal. I assume MPs will vote on that motion to give her more time - then deal presented and debate on 29th (ed for clarity)
Early indications are that May is not exactly being flexible on ruling out no-deal or allowing consideration of 2nd ref.
Or is the only killswitch option at that point for another No Confidence vote which at that point might then get the necessary moderate tory support to succeed
That's not a kill switch in quite the way you imagine imho. Assuming the no confidence motion is passed there are 14 mandated days for someone, anyone, to form a government which can secure the confidence of the house. No-one but the ardent brexiteers really want that job at the moment because the backlash will be huge regardless of how this all ends, so, assuming that motion was introduced today, debated tomorrow and passed that takes us to 2nd February with likely no government. On 2/2 the queen dissolves parliament in accordance with the fixed term parliament act. A GE will then be held but would need to be done and completed returning an outright majority with a single point of view (no party win is going to help because short of the SNP and lib dems taking defendable parliamentary majority between them there are no parties that agree on a way forward) in under 7 weeks, doable just (i think it needs a mandatory 6 but can't find a source). The new govt. then needs to present legislation to change the exit date, that has to be debated, amended, passed & go before the lords, have it's various readings in what is now less than 2 weeks. One filibuster by an ERG loon could see it not voted on at first attempt and miss it's timetable which is fanciful at best.
A no confidence vote is not a good way out of this unless you like no deal.
Early indications are that May is not exactly being flexible on ruling out no-deal or allowing consideration of 2nd ref
Conceivably both those would destroy the conservative party, there's plenty who would be very pleased with that but the idea of becoming effectively a one party state fills me with more dread than a hard brexit.
Christ. So she has booted the can down the road AGAIN!
She wont rule out no-deal, because clearly we need to make sure that the EU realise we are willing to shoot our own brains out and it is their responsibility to negotiate us down from this position. You really couldn't make this shit up.
I think if there was no-confidence vote and subsequent GE then Parly would vote for extension to A50 before dissolution - EU would agree
killswitch is the wrong term then - I mean it's the safety net that prevents her just saying Plan B is no deal because as others have said at that point she loses support from her own side and brings down her own government.
In the event that happened and we entered political limbo - who would have the right to negotiate / request an extension on the leaving date with the EU (which i assume they'd grant in that case)
I think if there was no-confidence vote and subsequent GE then Parly would vote for extension to A50 before dissolution – EU would agree
with no government there's no way to do that, no-one can propose the legislation, no-one can timetable the debate and vote. With no government there is no parliament under our system.
Lets be under no illusions about what takes periority here.
Holding the Tory party together and in power is of far far more importance toMay than the nations economic prosperity. It was why Cameron did this in the first place and, to use her own phrase: "nothing has changed"
Does make you wonder if any single Tory is now getting fed up they would throw the arty to the lions if the plan b was bollocks and they did another no vote .
Surely the logical way out – as its the only thing that can possibly command a parliamentary majority – is a soft Brexit which would definitely involve staying in the customs union, and probably the single market.
So the solution is for May to implement labour party policy? On this I can wholeheartedly agree with you 🙂
bludgeoning being the usual British tactic
Have we tries talking v e r y s l o w l y and shouting VERY LOUDLY? That usually works with foreigners.
Does make you wonder if any single Tory is now getting fed up they would throw the arty to the lions if the plan b was bollocks and they did another no vote .
Tory bashing aside i don't think there's anyone on either side of the house would do that, it wouldn't achieve anything anyway and their loyalty is ultimately to the hand that feeds them, and that's not the electorate.
Anyone who did it would be out in their ear after brexit looking at burgeoning unemployment with only MP inn their CV and they're not exactly employable after office these days, let alone when the competition for jobs goes up.
Realistically unless May steps down she is our only hope, which says more about the sorry state of this than anything else. For all the talk of ERG blowing their chance to oust her it's looking increasingly like something of a coup, they're edging closer to getting their way and there's now zero chance to get a more maliable (or anti brexit) candidate in and they all survive to fight over the ashes afterwards with less damage than if they'd been at the helm (becuase they'd have done it better you know)
Have we tries talking v e r y s l o w l y and shouting VERY LOUDLY? That usually works with foreigners./blockquote>
i think that was how Clarke summed up Davis' negotiations.
Crikey … still fighting amongst each others.
I thought I have come back to peace and tranquillity after 5 weeks away.
There are always things that will unite people - your reappearance for example.
But, no matter what Jezza or the rest of us would like, there’s only one game in town right now… Brexit. Because everything else hinges on this. You can’t instigate an enormous investment programme in building a fairer society if your tax revenues go through the floor
Is what I have been saying all along. It doesn't matter what other policies you have - assuming they are going to be for common good - they are 99.9999999% likely to need investment. A No Deal or Hard Brexit blows all other progressive policies out of the window because there won't be the money to pay for them.
Sad to say, this nonsense really is the only game in town right now, because if we screw this up you might as well rip up all the 5-10 year plans and start again. With a much lower number and lots more minus signs.
Surely the logical way out – as its the only thing that can possibly command a parliamentary majority – is a soft Brexit
No, I think it's 2nd ref.
Surely the logical way out – as its the only thing that can possibly command a parliamentary majority – is a soft Brexit which would definitely involve staying in the customs union, and probably the single market.
So the solution is for May to implement labour party policy? On this I can wholeheartedly agree with you 🙂
That isn't labour party poolicy though, is it?
Labour policy is to remain in A customs union but not THE customs union, retain tariff-free access to the single market, without being a member of the single market and to end freedom of movement
Complete cake-and-eat-it cloud-cuckooland nonsense, that would be laughed out of Brussels in 5 minutes and we'd be right back where we are now
You may want to belive othewise, but Jezzas 'policy' is just as much 'Magical Thinking' as David Davis's
You may want to belive othewise, but Jezzas ‘policy’ is just as much ‘Magical Thinking’ as David Davis’s
That's unfair, jezza's policy is hard brexit by misdirection, obsfucation and calculated support/opposition to government policy. It's going rather well for him on that. You've said as much your self. It's not the same as labour policy. 😉
Christ. So she has booted the can down the road AGAIN!
Corbyn is no doubt to blame for that...
Ironically, the best chance of May's deal succeeding may be a 2nd referendum ...