So postponing the vote until neverember,
Or go for broke & gamble on 100s of MPs abstaining
#labstain
Zippy, Norway are outside the customs Union, so hard border, accept EU legislation with no say, pay, and have freedom of movement.
More 'whataboutery' to be ignored...
Or an interesting read depending on your viewpoint: https://news.sky.com/story/brexits-my-fault-how-the-word-i-invented-could-be-an-epitaph-for-the-nations-decline-11576816
I thought Caroline lucas came across very well and spoke alot of sense in the c4 debate.
She usually does. And seeing that Green party polices are more "Labour" than Labour party policies have been for the last 20 years you would think they would be more popular with left wingers. I think maybe the branding has a problem, with them being seen as Green only?
https://twitter.com/eucourtpress/status/1072039706123210752?s=21
So, the "my deal or no deal" bluff is over… the legal situation is now officially that the UK government can cancel A50, so "no deal" would be the government's choice, not the inevitable result of triggering A50. Remaining an EU member, with our current unique bespoke terms, is still a very real option.
It's also true that a lot of "green" policies and ideas have been taken up by other parties. In many ways the GP are still a (successful) pressure group.
Unilateral revocation is go!
NOT delay/postponement as the BBC were suggesting only yesterday though. That was never an option.
I saw this on the BBC and thought you should see it:
UK can cancel Brexit, says EU court - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-46481643
Well that is going to make Tuesday tricky, I'm hoping for some tough questions
the daily fail comment section will now explode with "how dare they order us about! good job we're leaving it's god damn communism"
Unilateral revocation is go!
Yet despite that why would a governemnt with the best interests of the people, nay carrying out the will of the people, have an option for a 2nd referendum..
WITH NO OPTION TO REMAIN
Strikes me as a bit of a time to say democracy has failed
I don't think revocation is politically possible without a ref2, don't get your hopes up.
Revoke, and then hold a referendum.
If Leave win, then have we bought 2 years to actually prepare to leave… the roll out of the necessary customs systems and staffing coild be completed for a start. Do this while retaining membership rather than entering this weird and disempowering limbo situation where we give the rEU all the power, by giving up membership/say/control but stay under their wing.
If Leave lose… many key campaigners won't give up, but they can at least be made to drop the "will of the people" line.
I think a Leave win is very likely, sadly, but I stil think the public should be asked if this is still what they want.
Could be molgrips but, it completely changes the context of the debate and vote as it removes any incentive for Remain mps to vote for mays deal. It also provides a mechanism to get out of jail in late March if no progress is made.
Are there any actual vote leavers still here
Note that revoking doesn't even require an act of parliament as some had suggested. Since the first act only empowered (and did not mandate) the PM to invoke A50 it logically leaves the power in their hands to pursue the process or not. I can see a new PM being appointed at the last minute to actually take the decision formally at the end of March next year. I do hope sanity prevails before then, but at least we have this backstop 🙂
There must be another referendum politically and indeed practically otherwise the leave propaganda will ramp up and the far right emboldened.
It's almost as if we have sovereignty whilst still members of the EU, this'll not please the gammons as it seems sovereignty- they don't like it up 'em
…otherwise the leave propaganda will ramp up and the far right emboldened.
(Psst … the far right will be emboldened by whatever happens over the next few years, why do you think USA far right players backed Brexit? Even if the vote had been 52:48 the other way in 2016, it would have still played into their hands,
; division and damage come what may. Prepare for the "betrayal by the UK elites" narratives, whether we leave or not. Prepare for the "evil unelected EU acting against us" narratives, whether we leave or not.)
The difference is tho by having a second referendum it removes the foundation of their attack line " the will of the people"
That's precisely what I said a few posts back.
Problem with a ref is that leave might win and then there will we be.
2nd problem is that there isn't time, and it is much easier to revoke than extend A50 (extension may even be refused).
Therefore we revoke first, then spend a year arguing about the terms of a referendum, never actually hold it, until enough gammons die off that opinion shifts firmly against.
I'm not saying this will definitely happen but it's a plausible outcome.
We cannot revoke then start article 50 again - thats clear in the text of the decision
Plenty of time for a referendum - we can have general elections at a months notice.
Not true.
We can revoke, but can not put "terms" on the revocation to change the terms of our membership. A future decision can be made to trigger A50 again… but, once again, can not be used to game the system and alter terms of membership. If any country did this repeatly, you can be sure A50 would be changed by a subsequent treaty to stop this kind of action in law. As it stands, A50 can be revoked and retriggered. Legally. Lord Kerr has been saying this for two years, and the ECJ today confirmed it. Go read.
Also not true.
The procedure for calling for a referendum, forming the question, and allowing a campaign period, is clearly set out, and is not the same, or even similar too, a general election.
We can revoke and if we choose to invoke it again the EU can just point and laugh and say "ok there's the deal, it's the same as last time".
Or, they may offer us something that gives us even less room for manoeuvre, as they'd be even less trust that we wouldn't try and game a transition period and/or backstop arrangement. Lack of trust/faith would result in a legally tighter withdrawl agreement, I suspect.
But, my point is, having revoked A50, if we still voted to Leave, we could properly prepare to do so, while still being a member, and wouldn't need a transition period on EU terms. We trigger again when we're sure we can be ready to trade as a third country. There is not a chance in hell we can be ready by March.
they may offer us something that gives us even less room for manoeuvre,
That's exactly the line that Leave would use in any 2nd Ref campaign. "We have this deal to leave, take it or the next one won't be as good" (good is obviously a relative term here). Add that to denouncing anything contrary as "Project Fear" and you can steer a lot of the electorate quite easily.
The EU must be very close to telling the UK to 'do one'.
From Sweden to Spain the Far Right is gaining power, France is rioting, Germany has a coalition made of paper, drown children are washing up of the beaches of Greece and we think Brexit is important to them.
It isn't.
That’s exactly the line that Leave would use in any 2nd Ref campaign.
That's fine… if we withdraw our A50 notification, and hold another referendum…
Leave win… we have bought at least two years to prepare to be a third country (gov could choose to make it longer if necessary) by cancelling A50 and taking back control.
Remain win… we have kept our opt outs and carve outs that we would not be able to regain if we leave and later rejoin the EU.
Both options are better then either leaving in 2019 with no deal, or signing away control/sovereignty with the current withdrawal agreement.
So labour still pushing brexit on their terms ahead of a second referendum... sigh.
Kelvin - on the referendum - that can be changed by an act of parliament - the very act that would be needed to hold a referendum. There is no practical bar to having a referendum in a month. there may be political or legislative ones. but they can be overcome
How would that be better than withdrawing A50 and then holding a referendum, TJ? What makes you think Parliament could change how referendums are conducted quickly? Would a rushed referendum, based on rushed legislation, be more or less open to abuse than one we take time over? What happens when/if Leave win and we only have weeks left before we are due to Leave? If we have a referendum, we need to be ready to carry out either result… I think 2016 should have taught everyone that.
I just think that revoking a50 without a referendum first is unacceptable politically. Its never going to happen. The only way we can revoke a50 practically is to hold another referendum first.
And… if Leave win? Then what?
Revoking A50, then holding a referendum, gives us two paths that are better than what we are currently heading for… it either gives us the time and control to prepare to be a third country, or it enables us to keep our current terms of membership.
What happens when/if Leave win and we only have weeks left before we are due to Leave?
We leave on the terms of mays deal
If the government falls then an incoming government could ask for an extension but the whole idea that parliament revokes a50 is a non starter. It immediately gives the leave side the beast weapons they could wish for.
Cabinet ministers on standby for emergency call with PM, apparently.
Tomorrow's vote cancelled according to Bloomberg.
BBC are now reporting that May is about to postpone tomorrows vote. Not to worry. Theres plenty of time to sort all this out
What an absolute farce!
Lots of different scenarios being bounced around. What are our predictions then?
From where I sit, I think the following could play out (in most to least likely):
1) May loses vote but clings on to power. Lots of Parliamentary shennanigans resulting in an extension to A50, based mostly on fudge. EU will approve as the only alternative is no deal. After that, who knows? 2 more years of can-kicking. May be another GE and 2nd Referendum?
2) May loses vote and says that parliament has decided that no deal is better than her deal.
In the ensuing chaos of scenario 2 all sorts could happen, including us actually leaving with no deal.
I still think no deal is more likely than no Brexit. Sadly, I really think our best hope is to extend A50 and keep kicking the can until 2nd referendum and hope we get a monster turn out and convincing majority vote remain.
Fascinating how fast it changes though. Only a week or so ago, I thought May’s deal would squeak through.
Surely, surely, surely if the vote gets pulled then today has to be the day?
Although, I must have thought that 17 times so far and every time she calls a press conference and waffles about nothing for half an hour.
😂
And in the time it took me to write that, looks like all change again!
Christ, even Armando Ianucci couldn’t have thought this up!
Armando Ianucci commented that there would be no point doing any more of 'The Thick of It' as politics in Brexit Britain is now beyond satire.
He's not wrong
Laura Kuenssberg reporting that vote cancelled and also a statement on article 50 expected later today.
No 10 spokesman just said it's definitely happening tomorrow, as did Gove earlier, but
https://twitter.com/business/status/1072092436246212608?s=19
how much longer can this farce go on?
