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Conservative Home have just backed Savid Javid for next PM.
The brexiters won't be happy, he looks too much like the kind they are trying to keep out...
Tim Montgomerie prophesies the Agreement passing through Parliament, a leadership challenge, Javid assuming the throne and then negotiating the Future Relationship...
Parliament accepting the "soft landing" that the withdrawal deal gives us, and then all hell breaking lose after we have left, in the battle for what we are actually going to put in place long term, is probably what will happen. Tim Montgomerie is probably spot on there.
We shouldn't allow parliament to do this for us, when they know it is a damaging approach, but feel they have to because of the vote in 2016.
Big tactical mistake to call a vote on the exit deal a "people's vote"… that's just populism and means nothing… should be called the "confirmation vote"… the mandate to Leave resulted in 2 years of government putting everything into getting the best exit deal… now we should be given the choice, and the control, to confirm or remain.
Boris and Farage meeting in a restaurant yesterday according to Twitter
if Putin and Russia has had a hand in what is happening here and in America then chapeau, he achieved his goal and some.
I'm a bit out of date..
I take it there's not enough letters for a leadership challenge then? I know it's Saturday and MPs don't like working regular hours, never mind pulling a Saturday shift, but I'd have thought it would be public knowledge by now if they had the numbers?
If there is, then the subsequent vote would be good for May, when she wins by a mile, and then can't be challenged again before the exit date.
Pigface - there is a lovely picture of Farage and BoJo (and his dad) on the the front of The Mirror with the headline 'Swine dining' which I rather liked.
That's odd because it never occurred to me that the ERG were impotent egotistical windbags with a poor grip on reality. They seem so...reasonable.
, but I’d have thought it would be public knowledge by now if they had the numbers?
Possibly, though you also want to know what your plan is before you hit the button (mad thinking I know) depending on who has the balance of those putting the letters in (or withholding a block) probably want to get the numbers counted for their option before starting the process
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/16/opinion/sunday/brexit-theresa-may-politics.html
Well at least the Americans can look here for some distraction from their own problems
The final point being that is that the more the ERG and fellow idiots push for impossible and dangerous outcomes the more the case for a second referendum is made.
So it's all going to May's plan then, not enough letters to start a leader challenge..
May's deal won't make it through a commons vote.
Also part of the plan..
Cliff edge brexit or remain.
It always had to come to to that/this as there's no other viable option.
Hence why (as a remainer ) I've been against a second referendum.. A second ref would just reset the clock and not solve the practical issues.
So it’s all going to May’s plan then, not enough letters to start a leader challenge..
Can you be certain about that? If you have the letters you decide the timeline. The rumours/leaks coming out on Friday suggested it would be Tuesday
To credit such an error prone and constant misjudger of situations with executing this as a plan is generous to say the least
I can't be certain.. I only have access to the same news that you do.
But if there was enough 'dear John' letters I think we'd know about it by now.?
So we have to assume a commons vote and have to hope it gets voted down.
It’s starting to look like a cliff edge exit, or calling the whole thing off.
If it’s a cliff edge, this country will need about 25 years to recover. I’ll be seriously considering some kind of emigration.
Wales, in particular, will be utterly ****ed. You can’t move in Wales for infrastructure and other projects bearing the EU logo. All that goes. Just like that. Insanity.
To be fair the infrastructure will still be there, it's not like that are actual going to take it away brick by brick. Still, I can't deny that I've also been eyeing up the possibilities for a quick exit.
But if there was enough ‘dear John’ letters I think we’d know about it by now.?
No, for the reasons above, having the letters and deciding how to use them are 2 different things, could be some strong arm tactics against her in private first, could be all sorts of horse trading going on behind the scenes.
So we have to assume a commons vote and have to hope it gets voted down.
It's a possibility, though I'd not put the house on her putting her deal to the house as PM.
My local Tory ERG headbanger MP has just posted an update in his Facebook regarding his letter.
On his first post when he submitted the letter he was giving it billy big bollocks gammon bingo.
This post read a bit like a flounce. Standing up for what I believe in etc. A whiff of heroic failure about it.
I'm going to say the coup has failed.
So the brexiteers in the cabinet presently plottting a coup are Fox, Grayling, Leadson, Mordaunt and Gove - a motley crew of half-wits who’s collective IQ would struggle to make it into double figures
If i was her I’d sack the ****ing lot of them, but then she must be running out of people to actually appoint who are capable of tying their own shoelaces.its questionable whether any of that lot manage that.
i mean... Chris ‘Failing’ Grayling - a man so dim he genuinely thinks he’s doing a great job as transport minister, even after the debacle of the railways over the last year - thinks he’s in a position to be dictating Brexit policy?
Unbelievable!
Fox, Grayling, Leadson, Mordaunt and Gove
Beggars belief that any any of them have ever got above middle management. Another thing that Brexit has made me realise, alongside how regressive, petty and racist this country actually is, is how poor are the levels of intelligence in the higher echelons of politics.
Depressing.
Nadine Dorries complaining that the deal gives us no MEPs and no EU Commissioners must take the biscuit though for the most stupid utterance from a brexiter so far.
But of course we must remember to not call them thick.
Yes I agree that a 2nd ref is a bit of a silly idea but really see it as a stalking horse for postponing/abandoning brexit by any means. Remember until recently brexit has been a certainty (according to all journalists, politicians and most definitely the BBC). A supertanker needs nudging round gently, it won't stop on a sixpence.
You did spot that was a mash article in binners link....
2nd ref could be fairly conclusive if the question is right and and the realisation is there
Time to reanimate Brother Crow to handle Brexit.
but then she must be running out of people to actually appoint who are capable of tying their own shoelaces
Looking at the people who have been in the cabinet the past couple of years I'm not sure that has ever been a requirement...
I did Mike but why would anyone expect 17 million gullible simpletons to suddenly turned into intelligent voters who care about putting the country first?
Isn't the definition of insanity to do the same thing twice and expect a different outcome?
2nd ref could be fairly conclusive if the question is right
And that is the problem, the cretins in government would see it as losing face to change tack, so they will rig any second referendum with a loaded question. IMO if there is a second referendum it will be a choice between May's deal or a no deal brexit. Therefore in their eyes validating their actions and absolving them of responsibility.
I did Mike but why would anyone expect 17 million gullible simpletons to suddenly turned into intelligent voters who care about putting the country first?
Yep, as 17 million don't represent any of the options on the table
Have we seen the PR job
?
It's definitely not about immigrants, but it's definitely about immigrants
https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/1063854452707401728?s=19
I watched that with the sound off...
Is it more convincing with the sound on? 😉
Thick people haven’t just suddenly educated themselves. Racists are still racists. I reckon a second vote would deliver much the same. Despite what the more enlightened would optimistically like to think.
Unfortunately we have to acknowledge that we live in a country stuffed full of shit-thick racists.
This is about damage limitation now. We can all rue the fact that we live in a country of shit-thick, economically illiterate racists, but it appears we do
It’d be nice if we had an opposition party who were prepared to stand up and offer a vision more compelling than shit-thick racism, but we are where we are.
If I was an age when I didn’t have teenage kids settled in school, if I was pre all that, I’d be getting the * out of this backward gazing country, harking back to some mythical 50’s never never land, while I still could.
Its an irony that post-all this shit, when the carnage unravels, when the educated young bolt for the exits (as I would have been doing if I was them) the boomers, the gilded generation, will have ed that option for them too.
Best to stay here, work in your zero-hours, minimum wage job so they keep getting their pensions payed
I reckon a second vote would deliver much the same. Despite what the more enlightened would optimistically like to think.
Yes, it would deliver much the same, there clearly wouldn't be a swing from 52:48 to something like 70:30 the other way but I do thing their would be a swing to something like 52:48 the other way. Still too close to act upon but hey, the "Will of the people"
While I agree the country has always been full of uneducated racists (not many countries aren't) there are 2 million in the middle that have had time to consider, worked out that we may actually need immigration, the EU does actually deliver stuff etc,.
Combined with a few of the older voters now being dead and younger voters now at voting age (if they can be bothered to turn out)
Sounds like Raab has had a go at establishing a stab in the back myth. It seems I was being too kind categorising him as a mere prat.
He’s citing a ‘lack of resolve’. This from the man who always looked like he’d just shat and pissed himself when being in a room with Barnier for more than thirty seconds.
Arse
Hole
Too
Much
Dunning
Kruger
Sounds like Raab has had a go at establishing a stab in the back myth.
Man in charge of getting deal says that he was tricked and didn’t understand what was going on so this should demonstrate his competence for a more important job with more responsibility....
So what does it take nowadays for a politician to actually feel shame?
Attacking a result you yourself were in charge of getting with no hint of apology?
Lying to parliament?
Getting caught bashing the bishop looking at internet grumble on a government laptop?
Where is the line?
so this should demonstrate his competence for a more important job with more responsibility
it worked for Theresa May
Sounds like Raab has had a go at establishing a stab in the back myth. It seems I was being too kind categorising him as a mere prat.
He’s citing a ‘lack of resolve’. This from the man who always looked like he’d just shat and pissed himself when being in a room with Barnier for more than thirty seconds.
Arse
Hole
LOL...Spot on!
Its just deluded.
The EU have bent over backwards to help May and the tories and gone a lot further than I thought they would. They have stated quite clearly that this is as good a deal as May will get. But these numpties who couldn't negotiate their way out of a paper bag still think a better deal is possible?
Unbelievable.
I saw a tweet yesterday from an 18 year old complaining that they never had a chance to vote and they'll have to live with this decision for many years to come, they just wanted the same non-restrictive opportunities as the last generation had had, a retired Brexiter was quick to respond, telling them to stop whining and make the best of it, people died in two wars to give us this chance.
I can see both arguments (just) but also the new kind of deep set divisionism that Brexit has given us.
The modern world has given us amazing technology, education and health benefits among many others, but has humanity grown at the same rate?
For all our nice trinkets, learnt intelligence, and extended life spans we may as well be living in 'effing caves when it come's to achieving real progress.I'd like to see a world when that's not the case but it'll be many many years past my life time.
The post doesn't fit with the overall theme of the thread, someone did touch upon this earlier on, it's just my overall take away from the bloody mess. I'm screwed if I can see a way out that won't leave us without another deep division between two sets of people. Yay for us.
"While I agree the country has always been full of uneducated racists (not many countries aren’t) there are 2 million in the middle that have had time to consider, worked out that we may actually need immigration, the EU does actually deliver stuff etc,."
I know of quite a few people who would change their vote from Leave to Remain if they were given the opportunity! People from all walks of life. A small group in a factory I deliver to are shocked that half their co-workers have left to go back to their home country (Poland mainly) and that no-one from the UK has come in to replace them. Others that work in EU-funded departments genuinely didn't grasp the fact that their job would disappear so voted to leave. Add in:
"I saw a tweet yesterday from an 18 year old complaining that they never had a chance to vote and they’ll have to live with this decision for many years to come, they just wanted the same non-restrictive opportunities as the last generation had had, a retired Brexiter was quick to respond, telling them to stop whining and make the best of it, people died in two wars to give us this chance."
and you have another million or so young people who can vote with a dwindling retired voting group who no longer can. Put this all together and I'd be amazed if there wasn't a swing to at least 60/40 towards remaining. The vested interests of the media not losing face and changing their stance is drowning out a lot of the stories about people changing their mind, it's hard to see past those shouting the loudest and getting the real picture.
I saw a tweet yesterday from an 18 year old complaining that they never had a chance to vote and they’ll have to live with this decision for many years to come, they just wanted the same non-restrictive opportunities as the last generation had had, a retired Brexiter was quick to respond, telling them to stop whining and make the best of it, people died in two wars to give us this chance.
That retiree just believes the nationalistic propaganda of war, rather than understanding the reality of history. European integration has honoured those who fought and died by bringing peace and understanding, allowing people to travel freely and understand our neighbours cultures. It is the small minded isolationists who disgrace the sacrifices made during the war.
And I think that half the problem now is that most of those who bang on about the sacrifices made, didn't actually live through the war, they didn't experience it, they learned about it from post war comic books and Hollywood movies extolling glory and heroism while whitewashing the real suffering and fear. Those that lived it, took us into Europe for a reason, that the poppy mafia now ignore.
The modern world has given us amazing technology, education and health benefits among many others, but has humanity grown at the same rate?
What we seem unable to grasp is that nations are a human construct. Like race, gender, religion we use a definition to make us feel safe and that we belong.
Hell look at the fact one very small island has factions that would rather it split into smaller and smaller tribes competing with each other rather than working together.
the EU was created out of the ashes of Europe after nations tore each other apart but it seems we are not advanced enough to realise someone from 100 miles away is not actually some alien completely unlike us...
as a species we are ****ing stupid
a retired Brexiter was quick to respond, telling them to stop whining and make the best of it, people died in two wars to give us this chance.
Ironic that fighting nationalism, racism and intolerance can be turned around so much. That is the sort of delusion we are up against.
Many of the good people out there who gave their lives would not like being used in that way.