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A Scotland in the EU and England out with a hard border would be a logistical nightmare, how much capacity is there in the closest ports to get goods in? Or will goods be shipped in, bonded and hauled up to the border?
That is one of the simpler issues to deal with.
If anything has been learned then a calm and dignified study preferably done by independent/cross party groups on the issues that need to be addressed and the implications of them should be put forward and signed off by both sides before campaigning can start.
Back to Brexit a mass rejection of the whip is what is really needed and it would be good to see a coalition of Pro EU MP's standing together above party politics, I can image that some tories have already written off staying in power especially if a BoJo takeover happens.
what we need is a unicorn mine
or
bring back robert the bruce
A Scotland in the EU and England out with a hard border would be a logistical nightmare,
damn right they have a world cup at fort bill
That's something I hadn't considered.
Pre-brexit referendum, if Scotland had left the UK a few years ago, wouldn't that mean they'd also automatically leave the EU? Or do they get some sort of fall-back status and remain by default? Are the UK nations also all EU members in their own right or is it just the UK as an entity?
Scotland would not be ( or would not have been) in the EU by default. Unionists would have you believe they would be thrown out. However is 100% clear that as Scotland would be in line with all EU laws and regs and that Scotland contains so much oil, fishing and energy resources plus the friendly noises coming from the EU plus the desire on the EU to remain 28 there would be absolutely no issue with continuing membership or a reapplication
<div class="bbp-reply-author">mikewsmith
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A Scotland in the EU and England out with a hard border would be a logistical nightmare, how much capacity is there in the closest ports to get goods in? Or will goods be shipped in, bonded and hauled up to the border?
Scotland actually has excess port capacity, a bunch of which is used to ship things south. So yes, a logistical nightmare combined with England's ports not being able to handle the extra red tape of brexit
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Cheers TJ. Makes sense.
However is 100% clear that as Scotland would be in line with all EU laws and regs and that Scotland contains so much oil, fishing and energy resources plus the friendly noises coming from the EU plus the desire on the EU to remain 28 there would be absolutely no issue with continuing membership or a reapplication
There may be positive noises but I would imagine the process would be like the Estonian one.
Instant recognition of Scotland as a country.
In two-three years when the political machine is established (national bank, embassies, replication of non devolved departments from Whitehall, basic trade deals in place) an application to the EU can be made.
probably 4-7 years to cross over all the EU processes (might be quicker) in preparation for joining ERM
Scitland accepted then after approx 2 years transfer to the Euro.
I can’t see it taking less than 10 years just due to the time taken to create the political departments, staff them and demonstrate competence. During that time it leaves the country in a kind of limbo.
Mind you this is a limbo with a known end rather than a Brexit limbo with no idea
Or of course if rUK is leaving and iScotland staying iScotland simply becomes the successor state and remains in on the same terms under the same agreements. thats the simplest way.
Cornholio - the difference than with Estonia is that scotland is already compliant will all EU law and processes.
Think how much the 27 would delight in rUKs embarrassment as well? My guess - and we are talking hypothetical upon hypothetical is "successor state" would be used so in effect Scotland simply would never actually leave the EU
Problem with that is if we have (as still seems highly likely to me) a cliff edge brexit with no transition then the timetable works against that but I really cannot see the EU causing any difficulties whatsoever given Scotland wouldbe a net contributor still to the EU and has allthat oil gas and fishies
Even the Torygraph is spreading project fear
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/05/15/trump-threatens-use-us-trade-talks-force-nhs-pay-drugs/
Its frightening stuff that, the irony of the bus and promised money for nhs and Mays little Brexit nhs dividend ,looks like they’ll need it.
Roll on Brino
On the other hand the Observer is running today with how May's definitely taking the centre ground
sorry Kimbers I lost my quotes whilst quoting you 🙂
Scotland would not be ( or would not have been) in the EU by default. Unionists would have you believe they would be thrown out. However is 100% clear that as Scotland would be in line with all EU laws and regs and that Scotland contains so much oil, fishing and energy resources plus the friendly noises coming from the EU plus the desire on the EU to remain 28 there would be absolutely no issue with continuing membership or a reapplication
It's quite different now to when the indy ref took place - at that point Scotland wanted to split up the UK, something which countries like Spain and France (with their own restless provinces) would have resisted. This time round I have to agree with you, I can't see the EU having any problem with it.
Aiming for it Northwind - I am not sure the Maybot is much good at navigation tho
Besides which, Spain no longer has to worry about the seperatist side, since they've tested the waters and discovered that they can send in the stormtroopers and smash everyone's heads in and nobody bats an eyelid.
This time round I have to agree with you, I can’t see the EU having any problem with it.
I don’t think the EU compliance would be the issue that would cause any delay.
i think it would be the time taken for iScotland to disentangle form rUK and establish all the gaps that would be required to be an independent country. Treasury, banking set up (although they could use the Euro or USD instead of setting up a new currency for a few years) international relations etc.
I would guess the EU might want iScotland to demonstrate stability (balanced budgets etc.) for a period before entering the EU to avoid any finance issues.
even a quick entrance would still probably be 10 years
Scotland might well take 10 years to become eligalble to join the EU… but as a smaller country, EEA would come much quicker (and be politically much easier to sell to voters North of the border anyway… there are plenty who want independance from UK, but would prefer something like the Norway situation to EU membership).
I don't want the Scots to break away, but a no deal Brexit really would be the UK government sticking two fingers up to voters, their devolved government, and the needs of Scotland generally. It would change things.
Or of course if rUK is leaving and iScotland staying iScotland simply becomes the successor state and remains in on the same terms under the same agreements. thats the simplest way.
That's just simplistic, but there's nothing simple about it. Apart from technicalities (!?) like determining budget contributions, Scotland is entangled with rUK in a way that makes removing the UK from the EU look straightforward. I'd expect a lot of encouraging noises but a great deal would have to be sorted between Scotland and the rump before the EU could seriously consider Scotland as a member. I'd be surprised if it was done in less than a decade, which would have been a sensible time for Brexit done properly by a new treaty rather than the (intended as a deterrent) Article 50 route.
And amidst your enthusiasm for Fish! Oil! Fish Oil! you're glossing over Scotland having to introduce barriers to trade with rUK, who currently take 64% of their exports. Whatever those barriers are (and if Scotland wants EU membership they won't be up to Scotland to decide) they'll be replacing the ABSOLUTELY NONE barriers that exist at present.
Besides which, Spain no longer has to worry about the seperatist side, since they’ve tested the waters and discovered that they can send in the stormtroopers and smash everyone’s heads in and nobody bats an eyelid.
Off topic but Rajoy got the boot for that move and they only smashed some select few heads. I think the Spanish/Catalan issue will go on for a long time to come but i wouldn't trust either side to work in the interest of the public unfortunately.
Its rUK that would be totally stuffed without scotlands money and that does concern me.
I'm fairly certain that Scotland is a net drain to the UK, as is pretty much everywhere outside of London.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-28879267
With an 84 percent share of the oil, you still end up short of your spending. So taxes would have to rise, which means less competitivesness with those south of the border.
To say that we'd be stuffed without a rapidly approaching obsolescent fuel source, that is prone to market volatility is quite frankly laughable. Scotland is at much greater risk of oil market volatility than we are.
I’m fairly certain that Scotland is a net drain to the UK, as is pretty much everywhere outside of London.
London and the SE sucks so much out of the economy too, it's net wealth generating power is limited too.
Scotland has a lot more potential for renewable energy than England, hydro and wind, it also has offshore oil.
I'm pretty sure Scotland could be energy self sufficient and sell it to England for a lot more if they split and join the EU.
Good fishing too. Natural and farmed.
I wonder if the brexiters figured independent Scottish waters into the equation when spouting off about fishing areas.
I’m pretty sure Scotland could be energy self sufficient and sell it to England for a lot more of they split.
Or England can sell surplus nuclear to Scotland, I think that is how it works for non nuclear countries these days....
Or England can sell surplus nuclear to Scotland
The English nuclear that's mostly French owned? The one where we buy the energy back?
Or is England building a new top secret nuclear power station?
Well it will take up a lot less space than putting a turbine on every rooftop, damming every valley and filling all the inland seaways but whatever.
Potential does not equal delivered. When a Hinkley can deliver more than a tidal farm or a mountain of wind reliably and predictably where does it stand?
Mind you somewhere in UKIP/Tory HQ there is somebody chuckling that divided we fall. Want the UK and Scotland in the EU forget going it alone challenge it here and now. Don't give people the fall back option that it will almost certainly, probably really should be OK. Sort it out now.
I quite like the idea of micro power generation rather then centralised energy companies.
Imagine if every house had to have solar and a windmill on the roof..
There is a scotland / england interconnect that will show energy flows and its live on the net somewhere
One advantage of an independent scotland would be we would be able to set our own energy policy and would not have to face the rigged market that makes scottish suppliers supplying electricity to scotland pay more to access the grid than english suppliers supplying England
there is a perfectly workable plan to modernise Scotland electricity generation sitting on the shelf but Holyrood does not have the power to do it - partly because of the rigged market that is UK wide adn controlled by westminster
By my understanding Scotland generally exports power to england. dunno if its still so since longannet and cockenzie went tho.
Scotland produced IIRC ( and ican't be bothered looking it up again) more than half its electricity from renewables and the amount is increasing all the time. Thats not potentially half - thats in actual megathingies deliverd
So Energy is really not a good card to play to do down the idea of independence for Scotland as its one area that independence would be an obvious advantage
Infact here is some analysis - dunno how valid
http://euanmearns.com/scotland-england-electricity-transfers/
As we sit right now renewables are producing 30% of the UK electricity, Nuclear 20%
Reding a bit more losing longgannet and cockenzie has meant that in a winter high pressure event Scotland imports from england. this is far less that the exports over the year
Scotland desperately needs a new gas generator or two ( with all that gas found recently in the north sea) for these events but we are not allowed to build one / its made uneconomic by the rigged market Only would need to run around 30 - 40 days a year
Given how the last one went if people want an energy thread best start a separate one.... Otherwise it will just be a repeat of several others.
Indeed mike - and a scottish independence one a well
Just correcting some utter bollox tho 😉
The government published a list of brexit unknowns last week
It's a long list
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8408
The government published a list of brexit knowns last week
It’s a short list
1/ We're ****ed
2/ Er, that's it.
3/ No wait! Blue Passports!
The government published a list of KNOWN brexit unknowns last week
FIFY
That is only the list of things they have thought of so far. Add about 20-30% more for things they have not considered
So is anyone going to vote for mays deal which is unacceptable to everyone?
Boris did.
Depends on what that deal will look like by March. My guess is that, by then, she’ll have backtracked on all the red lines (I suspect she was always aware she’d have to do this anyway) so we’ll end up with Brexit in name only, Customs Union, single market and payments to Brussels
So the choice put to a parliamentary vote will be ‘its this or the no deal financial abyss of the headbangers making... so which is it to be?’
At that point, when reality bites, I expect it’ll be the Brexiteer loons who will then be screaming for a ‘People’s Vote’
Trouble is chequers or any varient similar is not going to be the deal. She wants 7 impossible things before breakfast.
However whatever cobbled together deal she does make will only get tory loyalists and a few deluded laboutr voting for it.
I rate her chances of getting any deal to put to parliament as less than 50/50 and her chances of getting anything thru next to zero
Whatever happens, as squeaky bum time approaches, and reality bites, I expect the political landscape is going to look very very different in this country
Good article in the graun link
We've moved so far from what the Leave campaign mooted before the referendum that models for Brexit that were never even considered before the vote now look like the centre way
The past two years have felt like a vast exercise in gaslighting – the method of psychological coercion that involves subtly undermining people’s confidence in what is real until they begin to question their own judgment. Thus have the parameters of sanity in the debate shifted. The norms have moved so far that any deal starts to look like a victory for common sense over extremism. But that is only because today’s political maps don’t even mark the spot where realistic accounts of Britain’s European interests used to appear.
An all this on a majority of 52%, which almost certainly no longer exists anyway
An all this on a majority of 52%, which almost certainly no longer exists anyway
Yes but in the wacky world of UK politics less than 40% can be enough to elect a majority government.
Brexit so far;
We’ve moved so far from what the Leave campaign mooted before the referendum that models for Brexit that were never even considered before the vote now look like the centre way
This.
Some leavers were saying 'oh there'll be a really close relationship' after Brexit, others were saying they needed a clean break. This is why a 2nd ref is essential.
LSHTM calls for international conferences to be held outside of the UK, due to British Visa policies
t's no longer acceptable to organise major international meetings in UK or US. If you create hostile environments you can't expect people to come & spend money. We had problems during @ASPHERoffice meeting in London - eminent colleague unable to get visa. Disgraceful.
But apparently, we're an outward looking global country that is going to g out into that big wide world and succeed!