if we get to a no-deal Brexit we will probably choose to stay and the EU will find a way of accommodating that.
That is what I have thought all along. It was very likely a deal would never get done and at the final point the MPs have to sod the will of the people and actually protect the country (including those people who want to leave the EU)
Hague is warning that if we get to a no-deal Brexit we will probably choose to stay and the EU will find a way of accommodating that.
this pleases me.
That's always been one of the possible outcomes. However collapse of govt and general election is more plausible (which also kills brexit due to the time constraint). At this point my biggest worry is the govt cobbling together something vague enough that it is allowed to lurch over the line in one piece, but it's a long shot.
WRT THM's difficulty in understanding the difference between a forecast and a lie, here's Nick Clegg's unnervingly accurate prediction published the day before the referendum
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/comment/will-wake-vote-leave/
Betting folk should put their money on fudge, extended transition, and a mighty size 11 in the can
the EU doesn’t do negotiations but it masters in kicking cans down the road
so one wheel
1 nicks recession, where is it? Activity actually surprising in upside
2 JPM actually dealing with 00s of relocations, the 000s being a more adverse scenario. Don’t believe headlines
“Our industry is in a constant state of flux and I can say personally we have been through far more significant tumult than this, so this is an event we can very well manage,” he said.
carry on...
Recession was held off by stronger than predicted performance of Eurozone countries, paired with pound dropping and the lag where that benefits exports positively before it hits prices at home, due to stock holding.
A fudge, and can kicking, is also what I expect. That puts us in an even worse position than we are in now, so don't welcome it. Of course, it's better than leaving without a transition, so May will be praised. It's a disaster though… …still no mandate in parliament, or the country, for any relationship to transition to… hence the can kicking by "our" side.
If that other comment is about JLR… of course they'll cope just fine… but their "threats" to try and keep most of their supply chain inside a single customs region seems fairly straightforward.
If it's about JPM… they'll never leave London… they'll mostly change where they are recruiting for new roles, rather than "move" anything. It makes much more sense. JPM are part of the rise of New York above London. Brexit won't harm them at all.
the EU doesn’t do negotiations
Who has more international agreements facilitating trade than the EU? Who is better at negotiating them than the EU?
My money is on an unspecified technological solution.
Davies said that we can use "existing" technology to make the border work as well as it does with Norway, or Switzerland. He still doesn't get the issues in Ireland, or understand the Single Market, does he?
The document does suggest vague non existing technology, yes… repurposing EU systems no less (they seem to have accepted that "our side" can't get systems ready by March, but have faith in the EU doing so). Oh, and Dublin and Belfast can sort out the detail. Who makes up the Belfast government currently? What power do they have over issues of taxation and standards? Interesting…
Tick. Tock.
They should have just phoned that one in. Distinct lack of effort.
Still, the BBC headline reads.
<h1 class="story-body__h1">Brexit: Tory MPs say technology key to avoiding hard Irish border</h1>
So yeah. Personally I would have gone with "absolute jokers" instead of Tory MPs but there you go.
Assuming junker was sober at the time...
In a largely positive speech, he added: “We agree with the statement made in Chequers that the starting point for such a partnership should be a free trade area between the UK and the EU.”
....FTA, getting warmer
even the guardian can’t get a poll that confirms a major shift in opinion
'Assuming Junker was sober at the time'
Classy THM.
Nothing like a little dig at the foreigners to make you feel better is there?
You may not like anything or anyone to do with the EU any more but even a little respect and treating others as you would wish to be treated might help 'our side' to get a better deal.
If even 'ex remainers' think in that way then maybe 'we' deserve what 'we' get.
Eu negotiators have track record in saying one thing one day and another thing the next (see Varoufakis) and junker has well known drink issue.
So wind it in. Nothing to do with foreigners
Whatever you say THM, I am sure you know best.
Actually sorry Dave, excuse the wind it in bit. Long shit day. Rest still stands 😉
Does Ian Bone have a login name?
Eu negotiators have track record in saying one thing one day and another thing the next
Exhibit A.
Meanwhile Citi and Barclays announce significantly lower job relocations
trickl....
However, while the banks gave low numbers for initial job losses, JPMorgan's Mark Garvin said job moves could become "substantially larger" over time.
is it time for you to mention BNP Paribas again?
Gosh
Meanwhile Citi and Barclays announce significantly lower job relocations
Job relocations in banking? What's brought that on, then?
Meanwhile Citi and Barclays announce significantly lower job relocations
trickl….
Still perplexed why any need to go if their employers had planned properly they would be staying to rake in loads more cash!!
It is still a classic PR trick though announce more then reduce it to pretend it's all better.
Do we have a total number of jobs leaving the UK so far across all industries?
The big challenge for May is to now convince 50 of her finest to admit they were wrong and support the deal that will be worse than Chequers.... Going to be tough when that split happens
If the ERG capitulate can we call them traitors and enemies of the people?
No need to be perplexed. It's all been explained. Even the wildly exaggerated stuff from north of the border was on the right basic lines before getting derailed
But they are still leaving, along with thousands of other jobs and the associated contribution to the economy that they provide.
Nothing is rushing in to fill that gap, unless your counting the BNP guys the same way people have been counting up the 8bn.
But at least no witty answer to the split tories..... Some people are going to look fairly stupid at the end of this if they cave in.
Still plenty of time to see what shit deal we are getting.
I know a full 1% of staff. Time to panic. How will we come without them?
You seem to be obsessed with overreaction, as part of a greater trend it is worrying and not good news. After all we don't have our relationship with the eu defined yep. How many are in the job export column if it goes badly?
So far 1% from banking
Research jobs
EU regulatory offices
We adding all these up?
On the contrary - obsessed with realism. Positive signs that the scare stories might be over, the real issues of subsidiaries, passporting etc understood so the real work can continue as normal.
Short the latte makers though - very bad for them
On the contrary – obsessed with realism.
You understand we haven't left yet, right?
-
Yes
- Haven’t rallied round, merely accepted that the majority of voters wanted a different outcome to me.
- Don’t defemd. You are confusing this with rejecting/falsifying lies promoted by those who seek solely to reject/obstruct the result.
- Yes. Oddly enough find myself in agreement with the head of the RMT on that one.
Not baffling. Argue your case, accept the result, move on.
-
It’s not a game which is why (5) and why we are prepared for the next phase. That’s what business does.
I suppose what baffles me is what seems from the outside as some sort of Damascene conversion. I find it difficult to believe that you believe that 'we' could come to an agreement, even if it is as bespoke as ****, that will be actually better than the agreement we have now.
You don't genuinely believe that do you?
I share your concerns as regards the democratic process itself - cards on table, i voted Remain - and indeed at one point i also was very much of the opinion that this now simply had to be carried through, for good or ill. But we must remember that the question was carried by such a slim margin that it is, in the words of Farage himself, 'unfinished business'. What's sauce for the goose and all that, what?
It's also slightly disingenuous to suggest that people should simply 'accept the result and move on'. You must surely equally accept that there are considerably larger obstacles to 'moving on' if you manufacture cars, or car parts - have extensive salmon fisheries - have a small business as a, i don't know, chocolatier for example - than there are for other 'industries'? Like financial ones, as an also random example?
Aren't many businesses still 'arguing the case' that this will be a disastrous outcome for them? Should they 'accept the result' that this will be a disastrous outcome for them and 'move on' toward the disaster they foresee?
Is that also 'what business does'?
If there had been an overwhelming majority vote to Leave, i could understand, but that is clearly not the case. Perhaps the only thing i can see both Farage and myself ever being in agreement with is that it is most certainly unfinished business.
Apparently there is a plan -
- not, it would appear, a particularly cunning one.
But a plan, at least.
Meanwhile Citi and Barclays announce significantly lower job relocations
at the same time many investors are expecting high levels of “consolidation” of smaller banks next year as they fear they will not have the money or resources to function or compete after Brexit....
nothing like taking back control by reducing the availability it choice
Exactly. The bigger banks will just expand and reduce in countries to suit (may within existing locations where they already have a presence) The smaller banks will suffer more.
The worst part is that jobs in banking are jobs we should be keeping, as are the jobs in the motor industry. Not everyone wants to give up their well paid job to become a seasonal fruit picker...
Shit, chequers is a bigger betrayal than even the frothing Brexiters knew
May has a secret plan to take us into the Eurozone !
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1040002377535942657?s=19
Not everyone wants to give up their well paid job to become a seasonal fruit picker…
Well, if it's well paid, they can probably move with the job. It's the lesser humans that'll be stuck behind borders. Anyway, retraining should probably prioritise nurses… oh, how about vets…?
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1040012440728203265
As for WTO schedules… why would they not be stated in Euros? It's that or US Dollars (joke).
BBC R2 reporting that immigration will likely remain about the same post-Brexit. Is there any single thing that leavers voted for that they'll actually get?
Blue passports?
Short the latte makers though – very bad for them
Literally, as they are largely EU immigrants. But not bankers so not important.
Sadly, quoting myself…
the lag where that benefits exports positively before it hits prices at home, due to stock holding
John Lewis have moved through their old stock, and now need to either pass on the costs due to low pound, or give up on making a profit… the lower pound was positive to the UK for a limited time… now we start paying… but don't blame Brexit… or is that kind of honesty no longer a PR disaster…? Let's see how their announcement is greeted today…
You don’t genuinely believe that do you?
To be fair ... actually being better off has always been a "potential" in terms of an overall Brexit
Or at least one proponent has one idea of how we would be better off that is completely at odds with another proponent... Money to the NHS one day vs "he shouldn't have said that" the next day... immigrants that are taking all the best jobs one day and claiming unemployment for their 6 kids in Romania the next day...
whilst potentially being worse off isn't considered..either financially or in many other ways.
A technological solution to the NI/Eire border.... heck if only we had that technology in the 1970's...
To pick the cycling analogy of "pick any two" Brexit is put forwards like "pick any 1001".... ignore any incompatibilities or just physics/economics as we will find a solution. Everyone will be paid more and we will have MORE jobs and we will export more because we will somehow be able to do this cheaper and because every national will literally be falling over themselves to give favourable trade deals to the UK over every other country.
Just saw the Sky reporter outside number 10, talking about Raab, finding it significant that he’s apparently “got a black belt in karate”...
Seriously? WTF has that to actually do with anything? Has he got a black belt in negotiating?
Clown time obviously not over yet.
They used to big up Davis SAS credentials, when talking about his negotiating skills
we all saw how that turned out
Meanwhile Im enjoying Raab attacking John Lewis, its used to be that the Tories were the party of business!
I think they should take a swipe at the brexiteers in their xmas add this year, best way to respond!
They used to big up Davis SAS credentials, when talking about his negotiating skills
Imagine if the SAS were actually like Davis:
"Let's go and rescue some hostages!!"
"Naah - can't be bothered" <gormless grin>
198 days to go.
Conservative politicians can’t agree amongst themselves of what ‘the deal’ should consist. May and Raab and supporters pushing for the ‘Chequers deal’ which Barnier has repeated many times is not acceptable. Government drawing up plans for emergency supplies and civil unrest if ( as looks increasingly likely) the UK crashes out. Businesses countrywide making desperate appeals to DO SOMETHING.
Tomorrow there will be... 197 days to go.
Imagine if the SAS were actually like Davis:
Sorry the hostage rescue mission failed but we had to call it off after all the soldiers threatened to resign if they werent allowed to have the window seat in the helicopter.
There will be a deal.
Will it better or not with what you have now ?
Vaz
No Damascene conversion. As a remainer I believe/believed that what we had was better than what we will get. Obviously. But that doesn’t matter. Its history. My view proved to be a minority one. We lost
So two mantras: (1) deal with what is in front of you not what you wish was in front of you; (2) prepare for worst, hope for the best
So we are giving up membership of the EU. That is what is in front of us. The worst case outcome IMO is a hard Brexit, the best case is bespoke FTA. So we are prepared for a hard Brexit already (structurally at least) and will be happier if we get a FTA instead. That will be a Brucie bonus.
In the end we won’t know if it’s better or worse since there is not control sample. I happen to believe that the outcome will be manageable and less negative that the doomsday scenarios. But frankly that doesn’t matter. It will be what it will be. We have to deal with whatever is thrown at us.
Or 3. Stand up and fight for what you believe in.
There are plenty of organisations doing just that.
Join them,get involved take the fight to those that put the needs of foreign billionaires before those of the people.
Don’t run to the lifeboat ,fix the hole in the ship.