I agree that it would be undemocratic now to stay in the EU without it being put to the people. It is a political choice to rule that out. It is also a political choice where to draw red, or pink, lines. It is a political choice to rule out a close relationship with the EU based on something like EEA+CU. It is a political choice when to Leave, and whether to extend the timescales if it looks to be needed. If we Leave in a manner that most of the UK public think is damaging, and not worth it for whatever they "gain" by us leaving, it is politicians that will be blamed. Voters won't blame themselves. Especially if the "elite" refuse to give them a say, and try to still blame them based on what was asked/claimed years ago.
They never do (blame themselves) look at us lot blaming and abusing the leavers instead of realising we screwed up
Dropped off a cliff to an extent? There were scare stories of what would happen after a pro brexit vote which didn't materialise.
look at us lot blaming and abusing the leavers instead of realising we screwed up
I'm sitting with Leavers here. No abuse. I'm not blaming them. They're not racist though. Also not claiming that another vote would be treachery. They also don't pretend to be someone else/new on forums to wind people up.
Best insult this year was aimed at Cameron. A remainer, who screwed up, then ran away.
****.
I agree that it would be undemocratic now to stay in the EU without it being put to the people.
I don't.
It would be problematic and arguably unwise, but a publicly elected government making decisions for the good of its electorate is the very definition of a democracy.
yet even now we keep abusing the Brexiters and pushing Project Fear II and wondering why this won’t work
Yep, Damn right too, `Give me a big stick and a bucket of shit and i'll really ****ing abuse them, more so than the fat blurt (really fat - so fat she couldn't sit on a hospital chair yet in 30 mins she ate her way through the contents of a carrier bag of sweets and crisps whist constantly shouting at the staff that she needed her meds now, we had the misfortune of being sat near her in the assessment area when i took my dad up to hospital yesterday for his blood transfusion for MDS, we were waiting 2+ hours to get admitted so i had built up quite a righteous anger by this point. She made the mistake of commenting loudly to her mother "****ing **** doctors in this hospital" so i let rip into her with every ounce of venom and bile i had built up and i made sure everyone else heard exactly what she had said about Dr Aziz.
A vile and disgusting lump of 25+stone flesh and fat masquerading as human,
Any politician who was to stop, or delay, our departure, would need to seek a mandate. That's a political decision. It wouldn't be an undemocratic one though. Other ways of changing direction are possible, but not politically realistic.
The only way there will be a vote is if it is politically (or economically) advantageous to the political elite.
so if it is such a balls up they need to deflect responsibility to joe public or they can see money in their pocket from having a vote.
the remain argument was weak and the entire campaign flawed but they also probably didn’t want to say “all that stuff we have been blaming the EU for that was really us all along”. Abiding by a non binding referendum was a master stroke of incompetent fear. Not creating cross party teams or forcing the other parties to have skin in the game was an interesting choice.
still we cannot change the past and we are where we are.
I am guessing last minute EEA arrangement to stop the cliff edge then lots of spin... promotion for JRM and everyone gets to blame someone else and stamp their feet but not have to solve any problems
you need a direction in the first place to be able to change it.
We have a direction. Have done since A50 triggered. Out the door with no treaties and no close allies. MPs facilitated that "for us". Something has to happen if that course is to change. Whatever that is, there is not a mandate for it. Politicians will seek one for whatever they can decide to do. My money is still on a decision being made in transition, after we are "out", and a vote on it, whatever that is. It'll be a Hobson's choice though… deal worse than membership, or nothing. All a political choice, not the necessary result of that vote we had a while back.
THM, we have been here before the UK voted to leave. The EU have clearly stated the options, we know the situation. The UK is leaving, it is not for the EU to change anything, in fact it can't, look at the Ukranian, Bosnian, Turkish borders that is the border that will exist in Dover. NI is a special case and the option is there to shift the border to the mainland.
How many people were aware of quite what leaving the EU meant? How many linked Erasmus, Eurotom etc?
That leaving makes much of UK industry unviable isn't the EUs problem, it Is for the UK to come up with an answer,. The answer is actually simple, but the brexiteers don't want to accept it.
I knew THM couldn't stay away!
As for project fear mkI as I understand it they assumed that the population & business would react as they did after 2008 crash (with pressure to spin it pushed by Cameron & Osborne) . It possibly could have done too, whilst the Tories were doing their best 'rats in a sack' impression over the PMs job it was left to Carney to step up & calmy say it was all under control & pump in as much QE as needed to prevent another liquidity crisis.
MK2 is different, David Davis undertook the impact assessments and added up the cost of the non tarif barriers and offset that by the amount raised by Fox's trade deals, the shock was that trade deals don't contribute much at all (international trade experts already knew this tho, but not DFDS Liam Fox) but the benefits of frictionless SM & CU trade really do contribute, allowing manufacturers to slash costs with JIT supply lines, far less red tape etc
Which means 2-8% off GDP
Davis was shocked to learn this & immediately tried to hide the assessments from the public
When he was finally forced to release them Mogg stood up on parkiparli & slated socioeconomic modeling as a fake science & he's got a good point, except MK2 wasn't socioeconomic modeling.
And THM is right, many Leave voters don't believe the negativity & will happily go with whatever right wing blogs/MPs/ press barons have told them without ever bothering to check if it's true. (see Dickens cut n paste job from migration watch)
So we trundle towards the cliff edge ......
Mrmo - you failed to add how many people realised that the EUs modus operandi is not to negotiate. I mentioned it, quoting Varoufakis in passing and this was pooh poohed by those whose agenda was to scupper the process. And we wonder then why its been an omnishanbles. Bizarre. We were warned and chose to ignore it. Stupid in the referendum and stupid in dealing with the aftermath (exceot for those who have taken responsibility to prepare properly).
Odd argument that much of Uk industry is unviable. And we claim that Brexiters talk rubbish. Bizarre ^2
Kimbers - why are you portraying this as a Tory thing Their leaders were more pro Eu than labour and both are now committed to the result - Brexit one just BS more than the other
Kimbers – why are you portraying this as a Tory thing
Well guess who is in charge...
Mr THM, Sir you have the brains of a rocking horse, oh & also what colour is the sky on your planet.
you failed to add how many people realised that the EUs modus operandi is not to negotiate. I mentioned it, quoting Varoufakis in passing and this was pooh poohed by those whose agenda was to scupper the process. And we wonder then why its been an omnishanbles. Bizarre. We were warned and chose to ignore it. Stupid in the referendum and stupid in dealing with the aftermath (exceot for those who have taken responsibility to prepare properly).
Yep THM is right, what annoys me is that we’ve been a member of it for years and know exactly how they work and then waste 2 years internally fighting.
Oh the urgency of enshrining the leave date in law when you should probably been drawing up plans to manufacture or encourage the manufacture of insulin here.
Varoufakis described the ‘run-around’ scenario that strangely enough May is currently playing on her holidays visiting eu members.
What you have to remember is that it’s all about the law,the realities of how it impacts aren’t the primary importance to these people they are just dotting their i’s and crossing their t’s.
I hate the language of Brexit but must admit Brextremist is a very good one
OWG you are too kind. Good question about the sky which is a good metaphor for Brexit (often seen as being blue). So we have sunlight (our future/truth) which passes though the atmosphere (the Brexit debate). Most of iit is absorbed (getting on with it) leaving the remaining wavelengths (project fear) to be reflected and seen by some as being blue. Of course, there is also the more scary scenario that we wake up and the sky merely reflects the red part of the debate. But we know what shepherds say about that.
It is amazing that the government have fallen into the exact same traps varoufakis fell into & repeatedly warned us about. Even worse, when the government tried to go around Barnier they managed to mistranslate the documents to the EU heads, so not only was it futile, it just made us look extra stupid.
Also worth pointing out that the EU haven't even had to give us the runaround the way they did with Greece. It's been our own governments internal struggles (+ the most ill-advised early election call in history!) That have pushed this to the wire.
Barnier's team expressed surprise when Davis conceded to the schedule on day 1, theyd expected to have to offer concessions, but happy enough to see us cede some of the only leverage we had straight away!
Btw I never singled out the tories, and well aware that Labour failed to deliver their message before the ref. But the negotiations are being carried out by the Tories & they own every single mistake along the way. It's their own infighting that has handicapped May as much as her own poor judgement.
EU have been clear from day1 - we have a range of options , realistically we can get some extras on top of each deal, though our shambolic negotiating strategy has weakened out hand.
The govt quite literally Does. Not. Care about falling into traps or the outcome of the talks. It cares about holding the Tories together as long as possible and staying in power as long as possible. The end. Nothing else counts, and the govt's behaviour only makes any sort of sense when viewed in this context.
How long before France and the Benelux see "economic migrants" arriving in small boats on the North Sea coast seeking a better life?
It is amazing that the government have fallen into the exact same traps varoufakis fell into & repeatedly warned us about.
Not amazing at all - Varoufakis is a nasty lefty maverick. The fact that he was comprehensively proved correct is neither here nor there.
Indeed why listen to people with relevant.expertise. Once again the tables turned on their heads.
But always fun when the left turn on each other. Much more entertaining than the right’s tame version
Really ? I think Goves betrayal of Johnson + Mogg, Johnson etc all undermining May at every opportunity, Davis & Johnsons resignations.... Have been excellent theatre
Internal labour problems just seem to revolve around serial PR disasters & inability to fend off monstering by the press.
Ultimately both parties still split between pro & anti Europeans & moderates Vs hard right/left
The country is split the parties are split. To me its amazing the Lib Dems are not making more progress. They could be smashing in open goals every night. MSM not interested, libs can't see past the msm.
MSM not interested, libs can’t see past the msm.
Libs don’t have anything to sell papers. No rampant islamaphobia, Jew conspiracy etc
The lib dems have never really made progress and never been real contenders. Seems odd to me to as if most voters completed a questionnaire to point them to a party I would guess over 50% would probably end up with the liberal party with tories and labour split across the other 50%. People don't do that though they just stick to what they ave always known or go by what others/media makes up.
Haven’t heard from Vince ‘Kissy Face’ Cable how the ‘war against Murdoch’ is going, lately...
So in summary
Vote Leave received some very dodgy funding
Broke Funding rules
When May stood up and started talking about her red lines she knew they could not be achived
The government knew that it had no negotiating power and cards on the table
Despite knowing what the best we can hope for they still won't admit it.
That about it?
So the only course of action is to mumble will of the people are carry on.
Mike, it really is very simple. We voted to leave. That's all there is to it.
It’s one thing to decide to leave a room. It’s quite another to decide where to go next.
I’m all for hanging around the doorway until we can go back in (it’s raining outside and there are no taxis).
It must be and a serious majority of people must agree on that obviously as nobody wants to ask that question again...
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/06/23/eu-referendum-two-years/
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/07/04/whos-blame-brexit-going-badly/
That about it?
You forgot that nothing serious can be done about the dodgy funding since it was only an advisory referendum. Whereas if it was a binding one it would be more troublesome for the brexit elites.
ordewingate: "Mr THM, Sir you have the brains of a rocking horse, oh & also what colour is the sky on your planet."
Is the above comment ^^^ targeting the topic of discussion or targeting the person? Could someone clarify please.
To me its amazing the Lib Dems are not making more progress.
Lib Dems are on the right path when they talked about business rate but they do not have the guts to change the status quo. What they have done is merely suggesting replacing the rate payers to the landloard etc, which is just going back to the square one. i.e. Heading in the right direction but no will to change. People can see that clearly.
Libs don’t have anything to sell papers. No rampant islamaphobia, Jew conspiracy etc
This is because they have run out of topics as the two main parties are already ahead of them, even if they were to carve out a niche they do not have the guts to do things differently. Just like the talk of business rate above.
Vote Leave received some very dodgy funding
Broke Funding rules
Personally, I doubt that will have an impact on swaying how people think. An example is Msia recent election where the opposition (before they won the election) were "ban" from certain campaigns and have limited funds, whereas the ex-administration has bottomless pit of funds (legal and illegal) yet they loss the election. In this example people know exactly what they want as they are fed up with the previous administration.
To me funding problems good or bad happen all the time in all election campaigns all over the world.
Personally, I doubt that will have an impact on swaying how people think.
Well people are already leaving the leave side, just check those various samples of people opinions...
You've let your act slip there chewkw, your post above was actually intelligible. Keep an eye on that.
Well people are already leaving the leave side, just check those various samples of people opinions…
The people mumbled slightly a few years back so now it is all in the hands of 650 people all with a eye on an election in a few years and post ministerial jobs...
The uk population has grown by 8 million people since 2001.
Since I was born, the UK population has increased by roughly 30%. The world population has increased by 180%. What is your point caller?
Well people are already leaving the leave side, just check those various samples of people opinions…
Social research is an interesting topic depending on how the research is done or framed especially those related to opinions. In reality people react very differently when their true opinion is concerned as only those who want their views to be known are or can be engaged.
Take for example, the circle of people I know who would express their views very strongly on both sides but when I asked who they voted in the end, many just refused to answer for whatever reasons. In this regards, although mine was eliciting a yes or no or this or that answers, I simply cannot get their true answers regardless. Similarly, with most social research into opinions it is rather difficult to reflect the true nature of how people feel as it is not something that you can measure accurately. Opinions may also change depending on how the questions are asked so my view of social research is a good read but reality is rather difficult to measure if they are related to opinions.
If research into opinions are accurate then why have the "experts" got it so wrong?
In terms of research done into EU membership this has been done to exhaustion with most if not all the journals arguing about the benefits of the membership. Can you name me journals or show me journal articles that talk negatively about the EU membership that have been published? i.e. journals publication that write negatively about EU membership? Any? I don't know about you but most people I know who are very intelligent told me that they "wrote" in certain ways to ensure their research get funded, whether this is true or not I don't know.
As far as the circle of people I know they have remain the same. i.e. no change on both sides. Perhaps some may interpret this as the core supporters from both sides which is true. But the fact is that we only know the people who want to be known. Yes, some people may have changed their minds but the same can be said on both sides, it is just that we do not know who they are exactly and if they want to be known.
Social research and especially those related to the concept of "Social Construct" is not as clear cut as they ought to be unlike science.
If the so called research has strong validity then they should publish in proper peer reviewed journals for scrutiny and that also depends on if the opposing views are even welcome, considering most if not all research are "EU" funded.
You’ve let your act slip there chewkw, your post above was actually intelligible. Keep an eye on that.
I have to type slowly as I don't want people to interpret my "humour" wrongly or accuse me of something else.
Take for example, the circle of people I know who would express their views very strongly on both sides but when I asked who they voted in the end, many just refused to answer for whatever reasons.
I know exactly why they didn't answer you.
.if the opposing views are even welcome, considering most if not all research are “EU” funded.
Yeah this really does illustrate how much you are talking out of your arse
As far as the circle of people I know they have remain the same. i.e. no change on both sides. Perhaps some may interpret this as the core supporters from both sides which is true. But the fact is that we only know the people who want to be known. Yes, some people may have changed their minds but the same can be said on both sides, it is just that we do not know who they are exactly and if they want to be known.
Well apart from just wanting to make sure you know your text came out of the translator unscrambled - You have a circle of friends not views on the entire country. People do change their minds and the evidence that has been collected is that people are moving against Brexit.
If research into opinions are accurate then why have the “experts” got it so wrong?
If you understand stats the outcomes usually get explained especially when you have the data. The 2 most recent examples people love to use are Trump and Brexit
Trump is well explained and the summing up had him as a 1 in 4 or 5 chance of winning. Given how tight the result was that seems fair.
As for Brexit it transpired that lots of people voted leave for all sorts of reasons.
If the so called research has strong validity then they should publish in proper peer reviewed journals for scrutiny and that also depends on if the opposing views are even welcome, considering most if not all research are “EU” funded.
It's a well documented and understood thing used all over the world to great effect. The failing is normally people taking a single headline from a poll rather than understanding what is going on.
If you are really interested I'd suggest picking up some of Nate Silvers analysis
I know exactly why they didn’t answer you.
I did ask them individually Not in front of an audience but most refused to tell me. They are from both sides as far as I know.
p/s: Why they did not answer?
Yeah this really does illustrate how much you are talking out of your arse
If that is true then please show me published research that implicate negatively about EU membership.
Well apart from just wanting to make sure you know your text came out of the translator unscrambled – You have a circle of friends not views on the entire country. People do change their minds and the evidence that has been collected is that people are moving against Brexit.
Show me the published journals that have been published recently regarding this matter that have been (with) peer reviewed.
Why they did not answer?
They didn't want to engage with someone who confuses "things I've decided in my head" with "facts".
Show me the published journals that have been published recently regarding this matter that have been (with) peer reviewed.
Opinion polling is a fluid thing, you don't peer review each poll.
But I'm sure if the answers agreed with you....
