I wonder if thecaptain might be correct.
Interesting polling on stay in EU -v- no deal today.
Igm - what are the numbers then?
I think certain people will be in hiding on the glorious day of freedom.
More likely they'll be at their second or third homes in Tuscany or Ardeche
Nothing will happen on the day and it'll be spun that "look everything is fine". Things will likely change fairly quickly after that and we'll be totally unprepared.
Sanity will prevail and it will get cancelled. Though the EU may extract a heavy price for that.
I completely disagree. I think we will be out as a strange third country paying huge amounts to be part of the medical, safety and security services that used to be club benefits. FOM will go. Customs will transition to a weird fee paying system and everything will be more expensive
Agree. The EU wouldn’t let it happen just to teach us a lesson. It may be the time when a lot of people realise the EU are not as bad as they thought when they stop the country from harming itself. Most probably won’t notice it and just keep asking when the dirty foreigners are being kicked out of the country..
Then we have a stab in the back myth and a far right political insurgency.
Great.
What happens on the morning of a No Deal?
run on the banks, release of ration cards, no flights, ports collapse, shelves start to empty because of panic buying, soldiers on the streets, looting, curfews, lay offs, power cuts. I can also see MPs being given armed guards to prevent retributions.
It has the potential to get very messy very very quickly. I think that the direction of travel will be clear early next year and it might be worth looking at booking a holiday for the end of March next year, just in case.
What worries me is that will still be about a year away from getting permanent residence for my wife, hopefully we both won't lose our jobs. But if we do, I'll be moving to Makati and never coming back.
I think it's ****ing mental that we could potentially face more food insecurity than in the Philippines.
It’s the will of the people innit.
god knows what will happen but it won’t be pretty and a lot of people are going to suffer.
if it all works out fine then I will happily hold my hands up and say “fair play I got that wrong”
If it is the disaster I fear it will be then the likes of Farrage JRM Boris Banks etc should be brought to account
I think it’s **** mental that we could potentially face less food insecurity than in the Philippines.
I think we've always potentially faced less food security than in the Philippines. Whatever food security is.
At least we'll have about 20k to 30k saved by then - will be enough to survive a couple of years in the Philippines even if we didn't have work - but the financial sector there is flourishing, so the wife will be okay. That or we will go to Singapore or she may get to transfer to the Swiss headquarters.
It would just be really nice to have the stability of both of us having the same passport, it's taken us almost 8 years of hard work since we met at uni to get to this point.
I don't really want to live in a country where we need an armed driver and an armoured car, as much as I love that insane country.
Graham - 55-45 for remain, continuing the steady (if bumpy) decline in support for leaving that we have seen since the high point of 64% leave back in 2012
20% less support for leave than 6 years ago. Even with all the Brexy press disinformation, dodgy campaigning and (alleged) Russian support.
Stunning.
I don't subscribe to the idea that polls of 'leave' sentiment in 2012 are that relevant to the likely outcome of a second referendum. 55-45 could easily be one of the polls in the run-up to the 2016 referendum itself, so is no real guide to things changing as the reality of brexit dawns on folk.
If a second referendum was called, Leave would be able to again campaign hard on the idea of 'betrayal' by politicians, arguably even more powerful than their messages in 2016. Remain would be campaigning again on the status quo. A current margin like that does not indicate an easy win for remain.
Sadly, I think it will take direct experience of 'a few bumps' as no-deal Brexit was described by some idiot on the radio this morning to bring about wholesale change in attitude. The past couple of years, if anything, will have hardened anti-EU and anti-politician sentiment.
Remain would be campaigning again on the status quo.
Leave would say Remain would be campaigning on the premise that the country could not make it alone any more and that anyone who now votes remain is giving up on Britain and we would be a puppet state.
it is too late to back down now without some kind of massive changes to our political system
Remain would have an almost impossible task, although I guess they could just bullshit like the Leave campaign did and make wild promises about all the things we could negotiate with the EU if we promised to remain.
Would the EU be prepared to make some sort of token concession as a 'thanks for not leaving'? Would set a precedent though, any country that wanted a sweetener could just hold a massively divisive, expensive referendum, then spend two years arguing with each other before abandoning the idea if the EU let them make a few of their own laws or give them a slightly bigger patch of the Atlantic to fish in or something...
You can never please the brexiteers anyway. They live in a fantasy-land. Have you listened to the drivel they spout? They’re all insane!
Anything less than having two thirds of the globe back under colonial rule by next summer will be considered a sell out and betrayal, and it’s all everybody else’s fault! Especially the EU!!!
Look at the trend.
Remain would be campaigning again on the status quo.
Remain would have to campaign on the ticket of having been to the edge of the cliff, looked over, and decided it isn't so appealing after all, but at the same time realising that we should be more aware of taking control of specific parts of our sovereignty that we always had but never exercised in the past. I hesitate to say blue passports, as that's a trifle compared to some but it is an example. We could stay in EUR and have blue passports, have a tighter immigration policy, etc. if we want to.
Not status quo - things have to change. But you don't have to cut your head off to cure a toothache.
But who'd trust them to deliver on those changes, given politicians of all colours have shown themselves to be have conniving, backstabbing gits of the least trustworthy sort? And in the end I suspect that gammony faced people shouting WILL OF THE PEOPLE and ENEMIES OF DEMOCRACY!! would still have the better soundbites.
Nope. We're ****ed, it's just whether it's going to be a nicely lubricated gentle ****ing, or Nige and Boris holding us down while JRM goes in dry.
That poll / graph doesn't take into account the BS that the public would be bombarded with.
Look at the trend.
As with all trends, you have to choose what period to cover. My personal view is that including the period around 2012 is not terribly useful when it comes to predicting future voting intentions in a year or even two year's time. If you started mapping your trend in early 2015, it would be equally misleading in favour of Leave. Perhaps someone should have explained this to David Cameron when he was pondering a referendum around that time.
I do wish you were right, obviously, but all I can see there is 'Too Close to Call' from the second half of 2015 onwards, with no reliable lead for Remain emerging..yet.
Remain would have to campaign on the ticket of having been to the edge of the cliff, looked over, and decided it isn’t so appealing after all, but at the same time realising that we should be more aware of taking control of specific parts of our sovereignty that we always had but never exercised in the past.
Well yes, but try writing that on a bus and see how it looks. Complexity of Reality vs Simplicity of Fantasy.
Yep - like I said; they'd still have the best soundbites, whether true or not.
So, the lying blohard hasn’t resigned.. was that a lie too or did someone make the whole story up?
As is, he is quoted as saying “we can still save Brexit” which is language for, the deals done and I’m still whining on like an old MAWCB because I simply can’t shut my cakehole and face facts.
I’d still like to see him and foaming farage (yuk, I feel dirty typing his name) in the stocks outside Westminster for all to see and sneer at as a point of reference to those who lie as public servants and cheat the public into believing misstruths to promote their own political careers.
Yep – like I said; they’d still have the best soundbites, whether true or not
And the snazziest uniforms. You can't deny the fascists were always impeccably turned out.
In other news, Cliff Richard won £210k in damages for the privacy breach at his home against the BBC.
Cliff's privates were breached?
So, the lying blohard hasn’t resigned
This was his resignation speech for his resignation as minister last week. Sadly not him resigning as an MP to go and dive under a bulldozer shouting "freeedddooooommmmm".
I think we got the speech because after all his careful letter writing and posing looking seriously there were more important things on that day so he mostly got ignored.
Cliff’s privates were breached?
Yes, and this was broadcast live from the NEWSCOPTER!
So, the lying blohard hasn’t resigned.. was that a lie too or did someone make the whole story up?
No, he did resign, as ForSec.
It's Parliamentary 'convention' that an outgoing minister can if he chooses make a resignation speech to the house, and it's also convention that he is listened to rather than heckled. Thus, it gave him a chance to get the knives out if he wished, whereas if he'd had to do that either in post, or as part of a normal brexit debate he'd have been there to be shot at.
It also apparently meant another part of parliamentary process / shenanigans. Because people aren't 'allowed' to interrupt the way to show disapproval is to sit near him and silently shake heads, pull faces, etc. and because the eyes / cameras are on him they see the disapproval of the people near him. Except that didn't happen because his gammony mates all got there first, took up a load of spaces on the back benches, and then he arrived after and sat in the middle of them. So when you see it on the news later, all you'll see is him speaking and everyone around him nodding along.
Just seen an excellent and I think original turn of phrase to describe that arsehole Johnson.
A shit leaving a sinking rat.
Now that I like!
Well somebody needs to start publishing lists of the costs on the side of busses. The cost of control in a nice monthly income tax figure.
Cost of a border?
Cost of the eu bits to be replaced
Cost of jobs lost so far?
#ProjectReality vs #ProjectFantasy
Remain would have an almost impossible task,
It always seems impossible, until it is done.
I'm not prepared to see the ERG, "sell us to the US in a heartbeat" Liam Fox, Farage and Co win again.
Luckily we have a template ready to go.
Elections and referendums these days (someday it’ll get back to something approaching normality) are won on emotion - not cold hard logical & reasonable examination of facts.
And this is where I’d be sceptical of any kind of hope for remaining. Leave have all the emotion - freedom, control, the concept of being free of the shackles of rule from abroad. Don’t think they wouldn’t use it all again and even more strongly.
In a 2nd vote they’d be able to spin out loads of negative emotions to run alongside the “positive” emotions from 2016. “Betrayal,” “The establishment don’t trust you...” etc etc. It’s a heady mix and I can’t see what Remain would have with which to counter that.
I’d be all for countering Leavers with the dirty tricks they played but I can’t see where the emotional buy-in would come from and that’s what they’d need.
Presently, everyone in he country knows that the Leave campaign broke the LAW - not just rules, but the LAW. The ****ing LAW ffs. And nobody (that can actually do anything about it) seems to give enough of a flying ****. Corbyn and his coterie of headbangers - Milne, Mason and the other brocialists aren’t saying anything about it at all. So, yeah, the “democracy” we have now, as flawed and fragile as it is, apparently means nothing if you have enough cash to throw at it. We’re all ****ed.
This johnston resignation thing is a fudge btw to make brexit look palatable to the masses.
Oh look the hard brixteers are upset, Mays brexit plans must be the reasonable way forward.
Expect johnston to be back in a job once his task is over and everyones forgot about this.
those technical notices might do some good, the gammon won't care. But many more normal people when faced with the realities might swing away from brexit.
But many more normal people when faced with the realities might swing away from brexit.
The big question is how much irreversible damage will that take? In my opinion, with the likes of the retail sector, the impact of 2008 hasn't yet fully played out.
the UK regulatory agency used to be famous for recognising the grey in all drug trials which is why the UK was a popular research location.
if companies go to all the trouble of duplicating all the facilities and approvals in an EU location and then the UK manages to retain some access to the regulatory market they have an extra facility/headcount/cost so one will not be needed any more.
which one gets “streamlined”?
"We don't care, it's a price worth paying."
As a light hearted aside, does anyone else wonder why you never see Theresa May and Noel Gallagher in the same room?
they could just bullshit like the Leave campaign did and make wild promises about all the things we could negotiate with the EU if we promised to remain.
That is exactly what a remain campaign should do. Just state it like facts "we will negotiate with EU to stop freedom of movement", "Immigration will be at 10,000 per year by 2020". Maybe put it on the side of a bus
Brexit has shown up some fascinating contradictions:
- Being "in" the EU means the Commission will negotiate trade deals on our behalf (1)- we are stronger as part of a bigger trade bloc and better placed to get trade deals - but Switzerland (outside) has negotiated 25% more trade deals despite being tiny
- Being "in" the EU means the Commission will negotiate trade deals on our behalf (2) - but the latest trade deal with Canada didn't negotiate on all Services despite the fact that the UK is critically very different to other EU member states in the role services plays as a contributor to GDP
- Being "in" the EU requires UK companies to comply with standards - but many of the standards are set in Germany, flouted by other countries and in many cases shown to be completely fake (Nox in cars, boiler efficiency etc etc.) In these cases no action is taken by the Commission or the ECJ
- The Commission requires states to liberalise services and enact European treaties - but invariably takes no action when france and germany fail to do this
- David Cameron tried to negotiate controls on freedom of movement and the role of the EECJ and was laughed out of town and patronised for his efforts - since when Merkel et al have repeatedly interfered in UK politics stating free trade requires freedom of movement and ongoing supervision by the ECJ - but the EU has just signed a free trade deal with Japan that does not include freedom of movement or supervision by the ECJ
- The Commission requires the Uk to continue to observe rules in a transitional period - whilst blatantly breaking its own rules e.g. freezing the UK out of satellite constortia, medicines control etc before a deal is even concluded
- The Commission says that brexit will undermine security in Europe and creates concern for continual EU citizens living in the UK - but when the UK unilaterally makes pledges on security (intell) and right to remain the rest of the EU member states fail to reciprocate and the commission has nothing to say on the matter
- The Commission is legally required to negotiate in good faith and avoid cliff edge trade disputes as part of its bi-lateral agreements with the WTO - but is demonstrably doing the very opposite of this in the sequencing of the brexit negotiations
- The Commission says that in the brexit negotiations we must agree to coupling free trade, freedom of movement, common standards and the ECJ, but signs a free trade deal on behalf of member states with Japan that has none of these
- Unelected Commission officials says they don't wish to interfere in domestic politics - but solicit negotiations with the leader of the opposition party to our elected government and continually resort to highly personal attacks and leaks that are clearly designed to undermine our own elected representatives
- the British public is obsessed by the potential for chlorinated chicken imported from the States, but is happy that c70% of the chicken we can buy has salmonella, and blissfully unaware that most vegetables and salad served in restaurants since the 1990s has been chlorinated to improve food safety - most people haven't grown two heads or a tail in this period.
My reading of the above is that:
1) the public are mad
2) the conduct of the Commission on behalf of the EU member states shows it is highly political, mainly interested in preserving itself, and that the direction of travel if we remain in the EU is quite concerning from both a trade and sovereign state perspective.
You are confusing a trade deal with being in the single market … the EU have said we can have either … the costs and benefits of each have been clear for years. Pick one. Don't pretend you can have the greater benefits of one, with the lower costs/responsibilities of the other.
There are errors/misrepresentations in every point you make… but I think they've all been covered in the many pages in this thread… so I doubt anyone will go through them all again now…