It also feels sometimes a lot like riding motorbikes on the road- you know what the law is but you’re also aware that it was written almost entirely for cars and so there are parts where it’s counterproductive and you can break the law without causing any problems for anyone, and sometimes even be safer and safer for others.
2(b)
@Spin - I'm very jealous either way, I wish I could go to The Fannichs right now.
Can you share more on your Stac Pollaidh project? It's a great little mountain.
I'll can only look at my photos of Cul Mor from Sept and look forward to my next trip to the NW. I've wanted to walk up Ben Mor Coigach for some time now...it can wait
scotroutes
Full Member2(b)
Which really is the same as "spirit" because you can't know what the intention of a particular rule is.
OK perfect real world example. When the "5 mile rule" for exercise was introduced lots of people picked up the lack of clarity, it doesn't state whether that 5 miles was measured as the crow flies, or as travelled. Doesn't seem to matter that much til anally retentive people get into it and discover that if it's "as the crow flies" then they can drive 20 miles from Granton to Aberdour for exercise. Definitely within the letter, is it the intention? I'd say not.
But then an equally but oppositely anal person notices that 9 Mile Burn is within about 2 miles of the Edinburgh boundary, but that the shortest road route is 7 miles. So they decide that you can't drive to the quiet car parking out there to have a walk or ride on the quieter paths, and instead they go to Harlaw where it's far busier- or don't go out at all because the parking's full. Is that the intention? Nobody can really say.
Except in the simplest and clearest cases it always ends up with people making their own assumptions of what was "intended" with all the usual biases and wishful thinking etc. A person who lives in Carlops and is worried about hordes of plagueridden Edinburgh folk turning up might well feel differently to someone who lives in Fairmilehead
(I literally just got it confirmed today that it's "as the crow flies" which is also how i've been interpreting it, but I have no idea at all what they intended when they wrote it)
On riding motorbikes and "interpreting" the law. The road from ballachulish to Fort William is almost all double white lines but loads of places for a safe overtake on a motorbike. always frustrated me that one.
I’m very jealous either way, I wish I could go to The Fannichs right now.
Can you share more on your Stac Pollaidh project? It’s a great little mountain.
I’ll can only look at my photos of Cul Mor from Sept and look forward to my next trip to the NW. I’ve wanted to walk up Ben Mor Coigach for some time now…it can wait
I'm really aware that we're in a privileged position here in the Highlands. I've stopped putting photos on FB etc as I think the last thing pals in Glasgow etc need to see is me in the hills! I've also massively scaled back where I'm going and what I'm doing.
The project isn't just Stac Pollaidh, by a string of coincidences I've ended up writing a new SMC winter climbing guide to the north of Scotland. It's a pretty massive undertaking and the biggest thing is going to be getting photos of crags for topos. Stac Pollaidh isn't white very often so I was keen to try to get that but it just didn't seem right.
I’ve wanted to walk up Ben Mor Coigach for some time now…it can wait
I did that one about 3 years ago, it'll be worth the wait. A fantastic wee loop.
That sounds really interesting and like a lot of trips to get the photos you want. My summer climbing days are behind me now, via ferrate in Europe is the closest I get. I always wondered if there are reliable winter routes on the The Fiddler as it looks pretty amazing from the North
TJ give it a rest. These back and forths do nobody any good. I’ve bent the rules a bit just to make life a bit more bearable but this morning I feel sick. I just want to start getting back to normal. I want to see my son diving again, hopefully get the highers he needs, see my daughter doing her activities. I want to give my mum a hug. My MIL has literally gone demented this last year, trapped in her house. Stop being such an argumentative p(rick)edant.
Well said Steven TJ as usual playing the STW martyr.
I always wondered if there are reliable winter routes on the The Fiddler as it looks pretty amazing from the North
Yep, the summer HVS line is also a winter grade VII. Less reliable than the Torridon classics (say) but it's a sought after route when it's in condition.
I am not playing the martyr at all guys - gies a break
Read my other posts I amplified it further. the guidance is there in black and white and I did say I had sympathy for those who look more leniently at this than me
Because I am a risk to others its beholden on me to be very careful
I always wondered if there are reliable winter routes on the The Fiddler as it looks pretty amazing from the North
Not my photo but from a few weeks ago. The obvious ridge in the middle above the loch is The Fiddlers Nose which is VII,7 **** and one of the very best routes in the UK. HVS in summer.
*sulks*
No chance you'd get me up that way, I had jelly legs doing it from the other side 😆
Great photo!!
I'd love a crack at that in the summer.... obviously with bigger boys & girls to look after me 😎
@Spin - good luck with the photos/book
’d love a crack at that in the summer…. obviously with bigger boys & girls to look after me
It's an OK summer route, decent protection and good situations but a bit vegetated. Much better but obviously a much bigger undertaking in the winter.
good luck with the photos/book
Thank you.
@Spin - plenty of snow on An Teallach still (waves from the other side of the hill). Although it's been really tempting, we haven't done any winter routes this year - doesn't feel right to have to much gnar. Re posting pictures on Facebook - I was initially nervous zit doing so, but most of my social circle (spread throughout the UK) seem to appreciate them, as they get to keep some form of connection with the hills the love.
Case numbers not really dropping any more and remaining quite high? Any idea what that is about?
Case numbers not really dropping any more and remaining quite high? Any idea what that is about?
New variant Covid is more transmissible.
Case numbers not really dropping any more and remaining quite high? Any idea what that is about?
At lunchtime they said that 85% of new cases are the Kent variant and we know that it is 2 or 3 times as transmissible as the original one.
Society and the economy is not locked down as hard as the first lockdown last year.
People are still mixing in essential shops, in some workplaces and there is an element of rule breaking going on.
If the new variant had not come along we would have seen cases continuing to come down.
We have to hope that the vaccine knocks transmission on the head or we could be in a situation where cases rise, but numbers in hospital drop due to its impact on the severity of the disease.
Whilst the SG's approach out of lockdown frustrates me, I can see why they are doing it this way.
We have to hope that the vaccine knocks transmission on the head or we could be in a situation where cases rise, but numbers in hospital drop due to its impact on the severity of the disease.
Is that not a good thing. Why worry about a virus that doesn't put people in hospital? The justification for Lockdown Mk1 was to stop the NHS being overwhelmed.
True, but not if case numbers is one of the main variables that they use to work out what level should be in.
Also, if there are lots of cases in the community there is a higher chance of another nasty new variant arising.
and we know that it is 2 or 3 times as transmissible as the original one.
Where are you seeing that figure? That's not a figure I've seen.
I thought that is what they said about the R about the variant.
I could be wrong though.
Edit - I have just checked and I am wrong, but it is still more transmissible and that is the point that I was making.
From memory Kent variant is 70% more transmittable.
Used to be one person in household brought in, one other would catch it.
KV is one person in household pretty much everybody in household catches it...
borne out by anecdotal evidence I’ve heard from two people I know caught covid after Xmas...
they reckon covid is more transmittable in winter (variety of reasons, not least lack of vent in buildings due to it being cold, but similar reasons to flu. Was in a webinar that reckoned covid virus half-life is 7 times shorter in summer...).
irc
Free MemberIs that not a good thing. Why worry about a virus that doesn’t put people in hospital?
"Putting people into hospital" or for that matter killing people isn't the only impact a virus can have. Long covid and mutation risks are the 2 obvious reasons we should look beyond that.
(at this point we don't really know what impact the vaccine may have on long covid, it seems pretty reasonable to assume that like with transmission, reduced virus load reduces the risk but we don't really know, and there's certainly cases of people suffering serious long term impacts from relatively mild initial cases)
At lunchtime they said that 85% of new cases are the Kent variant and we know that it is 2 or 3 times as transmissible as the original one.
Daily infection growth rate in scotland is currently between -6 and -2% according to gov website. So if 85% of new cases are the Kent variant, the cases are certainly going in the right direction, regardless of increased transmissibility or any possible reduced vaccine effectiveness.
Will imagine that growth rate will only continue to decrease further with warmer weather going into spring and the ongoing vaccine rollout. Cases will likely plummet in the summer.
Then next winter, there'll likely be new variants and cases will shoot up, but hopefully there'll be modified vaccines for these variants as is already being discussed. And so on the cycle will go, just like the flu. Covid isn't going to go away anytime soon regardless of case numbers.
This might be breaking news to some, but you do know there's plenty of other diseases still out there that are deadlier than covid? Which can't get treated due to this lockdown.
In the last year, I personally know more people that have passed away due to other diseases/illnesses going untreated due to the lockdowns than people that have gotten covid.
So as far as I'm concerned, people and the government really need to stop being so wound up about covid and arbitrary rules now, and start to focus on the bigger picture.
120 000 dead of covid. thats an awful lot of extra deaths. goodness only knows how many hospitalisations. this is the bigger picture
So as far as I’m concerned, people and the government really need to stop being so wound up about covid and arbitrary rules now, and start to focus on the bigger picture.
I'm not sure what you expect the government to do there. If we didn't have the measures in place to reduce covid transmission then the NHS would be overrun and things would be even worse for people with other conditions.
It's a balancing act and we're still a good bit away from the point where we can stop focusing on covid.
Edit – I have just checked and I am wrong, but it is still more transmissible and that is the point that I was making.
Fair enough. We need to be careful with quoting these figures though, if it was 2-3 times more transmissible we might as well throw our hands up and let it rip because there's no way we'd be able to keep R<1.
Has anyone got a link to a website with the rules per each UK country clearly laid out in a table for comparison?
And the projected easing of restrictions?
This might be breaking news to some, but you do know there’s plenty of other diseases still out there that are deadlier than covid? Which can’t get treated due to this lockdown.
In the last year, I personally know more people that have passed away due to other diseases/illnesses going untreated due to the lockdowns than people that have gotten covid.
I think you are mistaken: lockdown isn't stopping life-saving treatment for any other disease. Medical services have been at pains throughout to say exactly that. Now there ARE problems with health service capacity which might mean that decisions have to be made on which services/treatments/operations are offered - but lockdown is the mitigation not the cause of those. I also know that for example oncology clinicians have had to make (or help their patients make) truely horrible decisions for terminal patients on whether to follow treatment plans that may prolong life but make you very vulnerable to covid (and probably dying in isolation) or do nothing and potentially let the cancer take you a few months earlier.
Your last sentence also doesn't make sense to me. Perhaps I am the anomaly but without thinking too hard I'm easily in double digits of people I know who have had confirmed covid. I'm in single digits of people who have needed hospital treatment for covid. I know two personally who have died (one of whom was not in a good way and wouldn't have been a surprise if flu, pneumonia or some other condition took them this year anyway). I don't think the number of people who have died of non-covid conditions that I know has been higher than normal - and from what I know of their care there were no lockdown factors that made it worse. There WILL be long term deaths from lockdown - because poverty and social exclusion are factors in health, because mental health is inevitably a factor, because people have had another excuse to avoid their doctor about the worrying lump, etc. BUT I do not believe that short term more people are dying from curable non-covid diseases than are catching covid which is what you are saying!
Has anyone got a link to a website with the rules per each UK country clearly laid out in a table for comparison?
And the projected easing of restrictions?
I doubt it - the details are complex to put it one table for one country with the timeline never mind to put all the countries in (e.g. the way schools are opening in Scotland is a little more every few weeks whilst england is in one big bang a bit later than we start; the number of people in groups in the 4 countries is different, and includes children differently, Scotland still has local variation (for the islands just now, but is expecting to go back to local authority levels) etc. - and then whilst all have said data not data, England has announced "no sooner than" dates all the way to something resembling normality, whilst the other nations have not gone as far with their crystal ball, and certainly Scotlands message is the opposite - its "we'll do each step sooner if we can".
And in most cases there is a headline but no detail - eg. "return to outdoor sport where possible" or "hospitality will reopen" (but no mention of restrictions on alcohol or times etc)
thanks @poly
I'm trying to mentally juggle and manage expectations living in Yorkshire, a June holiday on Uist with friends and also parents in N Wales that we've not seen for a long time. It's like herding kittens at times.
tjagain
120 000 dead of covid. thats an awful lot of extra deaths. goodness only knows how many hospitalisations. this is the bigger picture
But of those 120k many had other illnesses. For example anyone killed by cancer, heart attack etc who had tested positive for Covid was a Covid stat but would have died anyway.
Excess deaths 2020 85k.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55631693
Of those 85k a substantial number were caused by lockdown not Covid. Not trying to minimise Covid but quoting worst case numbers doesn't help either.
Of those 85k a substantial number were caused by lockdown not Covid. Not trying to minimise Covid but quoting worst case numbers doesn’t help either.
But if we didn't have a strict lockdown (albeit too little too late...) those numbers would be much, much greater, no?
Bollox
We had less deaths from other illnesses due to covid restictions! flu and other respiratory illness way way down.
!20000 people have died from covid - thats the facts.
Of those 85k a substantial number were caused by lockdown not Covid. Not trying to minimise Covid but quoting worst case numbers doesn’t help either
So even with “lockdown” Covid still caused more deaths, and without would have caused vastly more.
From what I can gather there's quite a contrast between Scotland and England in the approach to ease lockdown. E.g. Center Parcs (all in England) say they are open on 12th April. This appeared on Facebook today and I double checked it. What facilities will be open there, I don't know, but it's the date in England where shops and gyms can re-open.
Scotland won't reopen shops etc, until 26th April, but also everywhere will go into Level 3. If the levels remain the same as before, that means you have to remain with your local authority, apart from needing to leave for essential reasons.
This seems like quite a contrast. Down south people can go on holidays from the 12th April, but up here it doesn't look like that would be until sometime in May at the earliest (assuming 2 week reviews).
Have I got this right?
Of those 85k a substantial number were caused by lockdown not Covid. Not trying to minimise Covid but quoting worst case numbers doesn’t help either.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-lockdown-may-have-indirectly-caused-16-000-excess-deaths-study-12044923
/blockquote>Ok but I've actually bothered to read the article content not the headline - someone not going to A&E or failing to seek medical attention because of the pandemic is NOT a death caused by lockdown. If we took a no lockdown approach those people would have likely not sought help either because the hospitals would have been even more overrun and even more likely to be a place to catch covid. I notice you failed to highlight the estimated 2K lives saved just from healthier lifestyles from lockdown!
Have I got this right?
I think you need to compare "over promising" and "cautiously optimistic" as two approaches by our respective political overlords.
I was at the funeral of my 75 year old aunt yesterday, a Covid death.
Although it may well be a FACT! that Covid killed her, I see it more as Covid finishing off what MS and it's associated treatment has been steadily working on for the past 42 years. She was extremely frail.
The figures only tell a bit of the story.
I'm of the opinion that lockdown will be shown to be a much more destructive force in time.
Sweden got it right.
The notion that many of these people would have died anyway has been debunked many, many times and I've posted on here about it too. These people dies because of Covid and with Covid.
Look at Prince Philip as an example, at his age his life expectancy is 2 years. If he dies in the next 6 months with Covid he's dying early. Simple.
Hohum
Free Member
We have to hope that the vaccine knocks transmission on the head or we could be in a situation where cases rise, but numbers in hospital drop due to its impact on the severity of the disease.
tbh if there's still cases and no hospitalisations or even just low levels of hositalisations, happy days, open everything up. hospitalisations are the key, once they go there is no reason to stay locked up.
dmorts
Full Member
Scotland won’t
Have I got this right?
far as I can make out there's no hard and fast rules in scotland, we might well go quicker, might go slower. vague idea at the minute is a bit slower than england, probably by 2 weeks, but that'll potentially change as confidence ups.
Sweden got it right
Not by any reasonable measure, they have over 1,200 deaths per million, a figure that bears pretty poor comparison to their neighbours Denmark and Norway. A figure that bears absolutely no comparison to countries that locked down early and hard like Vietnam, South Korea or Australia. A figure that only looks good if you compare them to one of the worst performing countries in the world such as the UK.
They eventually locked down anyway.
