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Had a play with ChatGPT for some financial thinking today, actually very useful, helps break stuff down and explains rationale after some prompting. Not really used it before and found it helpful/good for thinking things through. Also happy as it says I could retire!
^^ how does it compare to the free pension modelling sites ?
Just ask it 🙂
I did, but gave up, the modelling sites are easier to play with variables.
An interesting view dudeofdoom. I chose two houses, one that appealed to me on location (the smaller one) and a flash one that I too view as too big which is near Fisterra rather than the village I like. Our house is a two-bedroom but I've built an outhouse with an independant studio for visitors (and us when it's very hot or cold as it's very close to passiv haus so no heating or A/C). Heating the main house is a couple of m2 of free wood through a wood burner which has been used once in the last week as solar gain is already the main source of heat.
I'm happier when it's too cold rather than too hot, I was glad to head north from Sitges/Barcelona when the Summer arrived but SW France is OK year round. Galicia is lovely in Summer and quite a lot warmer than the UK in Winter. It's strikes me that it's going to resist climatic change better than most places. A lot of Spain will soon be like Morocco.
I like the Alps in Winter and in Summer but the Autumn and Spring can be a bit grim, especially the western fringes. The southern Alps around Embrun get a lot of sunshine and the Tarentaise is quite a lot drier than you'd expect for high mountains.
As financial considerations are the main thrust of this thread I reckon our house in Pau costs about 3000e a year in taxes, bills and maintainance. A well insulated one-bedroom flat with a lift in BSM is nearer 4000e. Going on my mothers UK house and comments on this thread France isn't much cheaper in property terms than the UK. However, it's sunny out and the roadie club rides out in an hour so I'll leave you all to your calculations.
Sister has seen the light. Taking the cash, investing as much in her pension as she can and will manage on the left over. Looking at taking pension from 55 or 60.
^^ how does it compare to the free pension modelling sites ?
But with AI, you can ask further questions and introduce variables like potential inheritances, downsizing a home, increase in healthcare costs or whatever. And it doesn't just give you figures, it gives suggestions, prompts you to ask other questions etc – it's almost human-like (as you'd expect). You should try it.
Can't recall (getting old !) if I posted before, but last week I let my boss know the towel will be thrown in come this time next year. Maybe earlier. I'll be 57 or 58 depending when exactly I jump.
The Mrs's current contract ends early next year, unlikely to be renewed, so a perfect time me thinks. Dog walks. Euro camping travel, bike rides. Dog walks. Swimming. Sort the jungle garden. Walk the dog some more. Learn to cook curries myself. Play the guitar. Oh and did I mention dog walks ? Lots of them !
I really like the others I work with in my Co, without exception), I like my customers too. But I'm tired and absolutely at the end of my tether having to deal with unhelpful obstructive barrier-makers in a UK-Government-owned disorganisation that interfere with and block what we're doing, rather than going sorting their own shit out (and they have *plenty* of their own shit to sort).
Any zero hours stuff after a good break will only be working with nice people who want my support- usually meaning projects in Europe 🇪🇺
One of the guys I work closely with at a customer is still working, 45 years in the industry, 10 years older than me. It's a 'way of life' for him, not just a job. Inc regular bus man's holidays to far flung parts of the world. No financial reason to continue, other than it is a large part of 'who he is'.
Anyone revising their retiremnt plans this morning? Are the buy and hold protagonists still so certain that strategy is the best? As stated I lightened up on shares last year on the basis I'd be able to buy back in cheaper at some point and wanted to reduce risk. So I'm not feeling too stressed this morning but not keen to buy in yet, the brick is falling so fast trying to catch it might take my hand off.
Contratulations to all those who saw value in and bought annuities or bonds recently. Quite pleased with my main decision of last year, a property for junior to live in.
@edukator in the long term an index-based approach is likely to gain.
In any short term period they go up and down. Wars, pandemics, economic policies, and more make that short term volatility unnerving.
About a year ago I put a chunk of pension money in a passive global equity fund. Heavily USA weighted if I remember correctly. It’s staying there as both a bellwether and part of my portfolio.
I put a chunk in a cash ‘pot’ at the same time as I was thinking of buying an annuity.
The equity grew modestly. The cash, as expected, stayed stable.
Personal reasons made me change those annuity plans recently and I put a large chunk of that cash in equities. I’m sure it’ll work out OK over the 20+ coming years.
I figured I'm maybe 4-7 years out from retiring, about to turn 57. And that we were / are due a global reset and recovery that'll take 2-3 years to work through, and I wouldn't want that happening at the point I was going to start taking money out, particularly my 25% lump sum.
So while I'd rather we weren't lobbing munitions at each other and killing innocent schoolkids in the name of 'Peace' I'm not overly disappointed if this creates that reset situation.
(please do not interpret as 'glad we're having a war as it suits my retirement plan' - absolutely not what I'm saying)
The equity grew modestly. The cash, as expected, stayed stable.
Equity gains over the last year have not been modest. Are people thinking that 20% market growth is sustainable and normal?
Interest rates are hovering around 4%, so your cash should have grown, not remained stable.
The surprise for me was the muted response of global markets and the price of oil last week. My equity accounts rather fortuitously found themselves at 10% cash ten days ago but I don’t feel in a hurry to reinvest because I don’t think investors have hit the panic button just yet.
I have ‘adjusted’ my holdings recently. I was very heavy in US stocks ( over 80%!) which has served me well over the years but for various reasons ($ exchange rate swallowing up US gains/is a crash looming/Trumps a C..T! Retirement getting closer etc) decided to reduce this exposure down with an uplift in European/uk stocks and some bonds/cash. Time will tell if this was right or wrong, going by the last week’s performance it has cost me a few % so may be wrong.
When I do reinvest I am unlikely to be increasing my US exposure as I think the pressures on Big Tech shares will continue to build thanks to massive capex and associated dubious tweaks to their accounting policies.
Trumps a C..T!
A very rational investment consideration. I can't imagine anybody would put their money into a savings bank owned by Trump, even if it was offering above market rates. So why would you put your pension investment into a market being openly manipulated by this criminal and his cronies.
Anyone revising their retiremnt plans this morning? Are the buy and hold protagonists still so certain that strategy is the best? As stated I lightened up on shares last year on the basis I'd be able to buy back in cheaper at some point and wanted to reduce risk. So I'm not feeling too stressed this morning but not keen to buy in yet, the brick is falling so fast trying to catch it might take my hand off.
Contratulations to all those who saw value in and bought annuities or bonds recently. Quite pleased with my main decision of last year, a property for junior to live in.
Over the long term, time in the market always beats timing the market.
Having stepped away from the full time rat race 7 months ago, and having turned 60 last month, I’m fortunate to not need to drawdown on my pension for around another 12-18 months. Hopefully things will have improved by then..
So I’m off shortly for my regular Monday morning outdoor pool swim and trying not to think too much about it all !
I'd be somewhat poorer if I hadn't sold everything against advice in Spring 2000 and then bought in the lows that followed. I'll be very surprised if being light over the last year costs me anything.
It's almost as though you see this as a competition @Edukator and you're enjoying current changes 😉
I'm taking a sort of 'half pension' at the moment, until my Teachers DB kicks in. I bought a year's worth in some short term money market (whatever that is), four months ago. It's unaffected by the last few weeks. No growth above inflation really, but may allow me to 'bunnyhop the shitpile'.
I'm as pissed off as anyone with Putin, Trump, the state of Israel, Blair, the Iranian leadership... because very few benefit from wars and economic chaos and I don't believe I'm one of them. From a human point of view there's absolutely no good in what's happening. All we can do is vote in the urn and vote with what little econmic power we have.
Competition or debate?
The absolutists on this thread with simplist mantras such as "time in the markets" I'm debating with because I don't follow simplist rules when it's a complicated system.
I'm interested in this stuff, geology and economics at uni, 45 years of observing the markets and participating in a small way.
This thread is about managing ones personal finances to enter retirement ASAP and still hopefully be financially reasonably secure.
Today is a reminder that head-in-the-sand time in the markets might not always be the best strategy and that diversification with property, annuities, bonds and sometimes even cash might better serve our objectives.
I don't have a crystal ball so I don't know where it's going. I've given two examples of where I've market timed, there have been others, sometimes small scale sometimes major decisions. I like to understand things and apply that understanding, if I don't understand I don't get involved, cypto for example. Sure I'll miss some oportunities but the first objectives are a roof over my head and money to pay the bills.
Today is a reminder that head-in-the-sand time in the markets might not always be the best strategy and that diversification with property, annuities, bonds and sometimes even cash might better serve our objectives.
I don't have a crystal ball so I don't know where it's going. I've given two examples of where I've market timed, there have been others, sometimes small scale sometimes major decisions. I like to understand things and apply that understanding, if I don't understand I don't get involved, cypto for example. Sure I'll miss some oportunities but the first objectives are a roof over my head and money to pay the bills.
Diversification is importany for any kind of long term investing, time in the market or timing the market, diversification is important.
So we agree on that. Do you then change your alocation depending on the potential risks and rewards you see at any point in time? I've ditched equities in favour of property, sold property when the hassle and cost of keeping it weren't sufficiently rewards, favoured bonds when I've felt equities carried unreasonable risk for the potential reward. Actively managing rather than "time in the markets" which is applied to equities.
All of the the funds I've invested in allow free "arbitrage", changing the investments in a fund, once a year, more often I have to pay. It's a case of kicking out the dogs and speculating on what might do better, swapping into bonds/cash or going deeper on equities.
Do you do any of that or really just sit on your share/ETF portfolio for time in the markets as your posts have been implying?
I get all that and the temptation to move it all to cash or gold or whatever now (or a week ago, obvs) and then buy back in again in another year or two's time when it all looks more positive is tempting.
But if it's really just that, why when I suggested to retain an investment advisor did so many suggest and point at the data that against a simple market tracker most (not all, but by far the average) active investor portfolio didn't perform as well
Are you really good, or just really lucky?
Can only speak for myself, the splits (percentages) of what I am invested in change over time naturally as some things grow faster than others and the portfolio becomes unbalanced, so then changes are made to better balance things to my preferred risk/reward approach , but these are not knee jerk reactions to sell stuff in reaction to market events like have occurred in the last few days, or the wholesale selling of one type of investment(eg equities) because I anticipate that it's about to drop in value.
any changes made happen slowly over extended timeframes, and rarely result in ditching one type of investment entirely, or buying one type of investment.
Drip feed the buying and selling of investments over very extended time frames in line with your appetite for risk and what you need your money to do- unless of course you suddenly need a load of money to do something specific, then you have no choice.
I'm perfectly happy with my own buy and hold strategy. February was a strong month so the latest dip just reverses those gains and takes us back to where we were in late January 2026, which I wasn't concerned by then, and am not concerned by now either. It's barely more than ordinary market noise so far. If it develops further into a proper correction or a crash then I might consider moving some more money in. But I'll probably just carry on investing monthly as normal.
Proponents of random buying and selling can cherry pick the times they've done well and pretend that means they've beaten the market if they want. Unless they're willing to provide all the details then we can't verify it either way. Ultimately even with recent falls the FTSE all world is still up about 20% over 1 year, 50% over 5 years and 150% over 10 years etc and no other mainstream asset class can match that other than leveraged property, so buy and hold has been a successful strategy.
Are you really good, or just really lucky?
My expectation is that he's neither. He's just being selective with his reporting.
So Educator got a Big One right in 2000. And there have been a handful of foreseeable Big Ones since (avoiding banks in 2007, buying equities in Covid, and selling bonds in 2021). But really everything else is just noise, ripples of over-optimism and over-pessimism, and the studies have repeatedly shown that much of the good work done with big events is frittered away by over-anticipating things that never quite happen. In other words, when it comes to equities the average investor really is best served by time in the market rather than timing the market.
As for not missing out by lightening up a year ago.....I was a bit lazy about making Trump tariff related adjustments to my portfolio before, during and after April 2025 but i see my portfolio is up c25% since with few trades in between; time in rather than timing has won out again. In terms of asset mix, I have never owned property beyond my own house and I think the golden era for bonds is behind us although I own some short dated gilts as a tax efficient alternative to cash deposits.
Anyone revising their retiremnt plans this morning? Are the buy and hold protagonists still so certain that strategy is the best? As stated I lightened up on shares last year on the basis I'd be able to buy back in cheaper at some point and wanted to reduce risk. So I'm not feeling too stressed this morning but not keen to buy in yet, the brick is falling so fast trying to catch it might take my hand off.
Contratulations to all those who saw value in and bought annuities or bonds recently. Quite pleased with my main decision of last year, a property for junior to live in.
Over the long term, time in the market always beats timing the market.
Yep, but sometimes you have to cash out and it may not be the best time.
As for not missing out by lightening up a year ago.........but i see my portfolio is up c25% since with few trades in between; time in rather than timing has won out again.
Apologies for being argumentative.... I'm bored at work.
Not convinced that 25% is evidence of time in beating timing. My effort at timing
https://singletrackworld.com/forum/off-topic/worth-a-punt-on-gold/
Returned about 65% gains over the same period.
Which is nearly twice the increase on the stuff I just left alone.
Yep, but sometimes you have to cash out and it may not be the best time.
Amen. Buying at the right time is the easy bit. Selling at the right time has proven much more tricky for me.
I think they have restructured the team whilst she's been off (only 3 months off) and the lot are redundant/have to find new positions. She's a workaholic, but we will try. She wouldn't listen to anyone in the family about her diagnosis, she thought it was a death sentence. She's been lucky to get to 54 with nothing than doctors appointments. Never had surgery or major accidents (unlike me) .
I've said sit down and work out what you need. We are talking a serious amount of money from redundancy and also her life pay out. None of us can understand why she wants to carry on working - and her siblings are an accountant, solicitor and dentist. She's an insurance underwriter - very stressful job as has been dealing with trade insurance and Russian impacts etc. Unfortunately, she's very money driven, but never spends it. She has no-one to leave it all to ?
I've seen this - trying to deal with it rationally might not be the best way. Her brain is probably hearing - you had cancer, you've survived it but you are too old/useless for us (nobody likes to be made redundant anyway). You telling her it makes good financial sense might not be what she needs to hear. Her "worth" in society has been measured by having a very well paid and stressful job. Telling her she isn't needed hurts the worth, perhaps more than the cancer because it feels like a personal judgement not random luck. Perhaps she needs to ask what she would do if she had no choice - plenty of volunteering roles, ad hoc jobs like yoga instructor, or professional bodies that would love someone 1 day a week who wasn't worried about cash! If she believes she can still be valued and have purpose the idea of going to work to deal with someone else's over-dramatic trivia will suddenly look different!
Thanks for elaborating, Julians, it's now clear that you are diversified and have risk limitation built into your strategy. It's easier to live with a time in the markets strategy when it's only a part of your capital that's at risk. We aren't so very different most of the time but sometimes I've been so unhappy with one market or another I've thought it better to just spectate for a while - market timing.
When I first met Madame Edukator she had a house/mortgage in the UK which was more investment than anything as we were both spending more time in Europe. I suggested the housing market looked unstable and she sold which didn't go down well with her family. That was 1989 and we could have bought back in significantly cheaper any time in the next five years, but didn't because we'd started a business in France. In France we played the stock market through the 90s boom along with picking up property in a slack market. In 2000 I sold all the shares to buy a house - the bank manager tried to persuade me to keep the share portfolio and take a mortgage - no. I then bought dips until last year. With Madame coming up to retirement and Trump already making all the wrong noises we decided to limit exposure to the markets so we'd have guaranteed annuities till death, a good cushion of bonds and only limited market exposure, but we have some exposure even with Trump's craziness, but on money we hope never to need or only need for care which we hope is a long way off. Time in the markets ! Which isn't always the best strategy as I've been arguing but there you go. 😉
I think what might save the markets in the current mess is the lack of attractive alternatives. In 1989 - 1994 when the housing market fell (not surprising given interest rates) then stagnated we were getting around 9% and more on zero risk money market placements in France - way above inflation in the property market or returns on many shares. In 2000 property prices were still attractive and the stock market bubble ready to burst. At present I can't see value in alternatives so even if P/E ratios aren't great and management fees dissuasive there's not much incentive to pull out for something better. Then there's sentiment of course - I hope that the majority of investors are as upbeat as those on this thread, if so my money is safe. 🙂
Thankfully I changed my default retirement age to a much lower number in my current workplace DC pension (like 0.5 higher than my current age) a few months ago. So the impact of all this current mess hasn't had a huge impact (down about 3% over the past fortnight). Plus that's not my main pension, as I have a DB from 30 years at a different Co. But I am the main earner in the house and pension provider by a factor of 4 or 5.
On a different point, as a sanity check, what are folks spending on 'shopping' a month -(the Morrisons / Aldi sort of shopping, not bikes, cars, brides etc). Just as a sanity check for what I'm assuming in some sums. £150 a week / £600 for a month ? 2 of us, kid has flown the nest. As this is probably the biggest line-item a month for us but the one I have least records / figures for.
Thankfully I changed my default retirement age to a lower number in my current workplace DC pension (like 0.5 higher than my current age) a few months ago. So the impact of all this current mess hasn't had a huge impact as they reduce the risk in the last few years (down about 3% over the past fortnight). Plus that's not my main pension, as I have a DB from 30 years at a different Co. But I am the main earner in the house and pension provider by a factor of 4 or 5.
On a different point, as a sanity check, what are folks spending on 'shopping' a month -(the Morrisons / Aldi sort of shopping, not bikes, cars, brides etc). Just as a sanity check for what I'm assuming in some sums. £150 a week / £600 for a month ? 2 of us, kid has flown the nest. As this is probably the biggest line-item a month for us but the one I have least records / figures for.
On a different point, as a sanity check, what are folks spending on 'shopping' a month
Yeah, something of that order - £100 to £120 weekly Big Shop at (usually) Sains, plus a random few bits and bobs either at nearest Coop or wherever else we're passing. That's also for 2 of us, usually eat at home most lunchtimes and nights. That figure includes household consumables like bogroll, bleach, cleaning products etc.
Thankfully I changed my default retirement age to a lower number in my current workplace DC pension (like 0.5 higher than my current age) a few months ago. So the impact of all this current mess hasn't had a huge impact as they reduce the risk in the last few years (down about 3% over the past fortnight).
[I know this advice has been given before but like the market the discussion cycles too - so I'll post again rather than 'you need to read the last 800 posts in case there's a relevant nugget in there 😉 ]
This is widely touted as good practice and at the current time hard to argue that it isn't working in your favour. But that was more advice when the default was for you to protect your sum close to retirement so then when you converted to an annuity, your sum didn't suddenly lose a load. Equally, in the event of a sudden upturn it wouldn't benefit but as decisions are made on the basis of 'Have I got enough' ensuring 'enough' was protected was uppermost in the mind.
Nowadays, with more people going for drawdown, you have to consider that your investment has another 20-30 years to go and so you shouldn't be so worried about a downturn because as per all the recent discussions, over time it always increases. So instead you need enough right now in safe / cash that you can call on to tide you over a downturn so you aren't selling shares when market is low, but the rest you can let play out. And if / when your cash is used up, hopefully market is recovered and you can move a bit more, etc.
And that (drawdown) is 'current' way of thinking but the annuity firms have realised they aren't getting as much business because they were underpriced and so that has recently become more competitive again, so much like the market itself the market for vehicles for cashing out cycles.
£150 a week / £600 for a month ?
That's about what we spend but in euros, two shops a week, one around 100e and the other about 50e including washing liquids toothpaste etc. even soap. 😉 I reckon we might spend a bit more in the UK where good fresh fruit and veg costs more than here. We could easily spend less by subtituting staples for exotics but just buying healthy stuff that we like that's what it comes to. It includes the carrots and apples to persuade to the horse to do what we want it to. :/
Restless must have been reading this thread, theotherjonv. 😉
Thankfully I changed my default retirement age to a lower number in my current workplace DC pension (like 0.5 higher than my current age) a few months ago. So the impact of all this current mess hasn't had a huge impact as they reduce the risk in the last few years (down about 3% over the past fortnight).
[I know this advice has been given before but like the market the discussion cycles too - so I'll post again rather than 'you need to read the last 800 posts in case there's a relevant nugget in there 😉 ]
This is widely touted as good practice and at the current time hard to argue that it isn't working in your favour. But that was more advice when the default was for you to protect your sum close to retirement so then when you converted to an annuity, your sum didn't suddenly lose a load. Equally, in the event of a sudden upturn it wouldn't benefit but as decisions are made on the basis of 'Have I got enough' ensuring 'enough' was protected was uppermost in the mind.
Nowadays, with more people going for drawdown, you have to consider that your investment has another 20-30 years to go and so you shouldn't be so worried about a downturn because as per all the recent discussions, over time it always increases. So instead you need enough right now in safe / cash that you can call on to tide you over a downturn so you aren't selling shares when market is low, but the rest you can let play out. And if / when your cash is used up, hopefully market is recovered and you can move a bit more, etc.
And that (drawdown) is 'current' way of thinking but the annuity firms have realised they aren't getting as much business because they were underpriced and so that has recently become more competitive again, so much like the market itself the market for vehicles for cashing out cycles.
Cheers. I didnt say that my thinking is this DC pot is going to be used as draw-down, to fill the 'gap' between bailing out of work, and the state pension kicking it (at 67 for me). Ie about 9-10 years depending on when exactly I jump. Not the 30+ years that many have to factor in. But it is logged / invested with the pension Co as for draw-down not annuity. My DB annuity is index linked to CPI, and will form about 60-70% of my pension til I'm dead. If the DC pot is empty after ive reached 67, no problem. I'm happy enough to have a low risk low return on that - as you say its a case of 'that's enough' providing it doesn't plummet to zero half way through (1 bird in the hand, and all that).
Just as a sanity check for what I'm assuming in some sums. £150 a week / £600 for a month ? 2 of us, kid has flown the nest
Yep, for the two of us it was £540 a month last year. And that includes quite a lot from the posh health food shop etc, buying organic where possible.
My coke habit always puts up our shop bill(them genuine cans ain't cheap in Spain)
Oddly cheapest coke is from the english(Iceland or whaterever they are calling themselves now)
On a different point, as a sanity check, what are folks spending on 'shopping' a month -(the Morrisons / Aldi sort of shopping, not bikes, cars, brides etc). Just as a sanity check for what I'm assuming in some sums. £150 a week / £600 for a month ? 2 of us, kid has flown the nest. As this is probably the biggest line-item a month for us but the one I have least records / figures for.
Does that include drink? Two of us, average of £242 per month last year, both non drinkers.
Does that include drink? Two of us, average of £242 per month last year, both non drinkers.
Seems very low, even without booze. Under £4 a day per person, for 3x meals, snacks, toiletries, bog roll, washing up liquid and all the rest of it?
I reckon our booze* spend is about £50 a month, ie one bottle of wine and a beer or two per week between us.
*includes alcohol-free beer!
Seems very low, even without booze. Under £4 a day per person, for 3x meals, snacks, toiletries, bog roll, washing up liquid and all the rest of it?
We have a spreadsheet for all our spend. I could give you a breakdown of where it's spent! Shopping is mostly Aldi, with some at Tesco and Sainsburys. £242 is the average monthly spend in 2026. I guess we don't eat much, or what we do eat isn't expensive.
Excludes petrol, which was an average of £168 per month for two cars (2025)