[Closed] Double dip recession

There's a Nobel prize-winning economist

Grum: This professor said:

He said: "It is important to avoid this 'sovereign risk'. But in my view Britain is a long way from such a threat, and the chancellor has exaggerated the sovereign risks that are threatening the country."

BBC: "Fitch Ratings warned on Wednesday that it could downgrade the UK in the next few years if the government does not contain the level of public debt."

That professor should shut up really. Muppet.

This is beacuse a weak labour are scared of the propagnada machine the tories own - they hare afraid to / have not been able to make the case against the cuts so have capitulated

Perhaps that is because there isn't a strong enough case to make?

Like I said I'm definitely no Tory, but I'm no fan of Miliband/Balls either and I don't see them coming up with any clear alternatives.

So basically you all think we should fix the problems we have by making small changes to the system that doesn't work and caused this situation in the first place.

The problems we face are due to an inability to determine what is important and what is not and then to prioritise.

So here's a question for all of you, what is more important quality of life or having money to buy useless shit?

I think kaesae has a point here. We're stuck with a system that doesn't work, and a society that's embraced the wrong values. It's chicken and egg - were we seduced by the excess and luxury the selfish free market-driven capitalist society offered us, or did we actually help to make it that way because we wanted endless stuff, to emulate celebrities, to keep up with the Joneses, and our governments just responded to what we wanted? Either way, certainly in affluent Western societies, we bought into it lock stock and barrel. Now the bubble's burst, and the one thing we don't want to look at is that it might be time to change our social values instead of our economic policies. All we seem to want is for someone to wave a magic wand and go "hey, it's alright again now, here's another credit card, off you go to Currys and buy a new HD TV".

It's not going to happen.

Littlemisspanda

The way I see it the conventional wisdom is elections are won and lost on the swing voters in marginal seats. Labour believe these people ( mainly middle class / suburbia) have been persuaded by the tory propaganda machine that the cuts are needed so are scared of opposing cuts incase they loose this vote.

They are too timid to make the case because of the desire to chase these few but crucial votes - we are talking about a couple of hundred thousand people.

TJ
Labour putting up such a weak effort as opposition is one of the few problems in this country that can not be blamed on the government.
At some point they, and their supporters, need to take some responsibility for their own problems and sort them out. This should be a very good time to be in opposition, yet they are b@llsing it up.

I also think this government has the least effective "propaganda machine" for a long time. I think they've fallen out with and lost the support of News International, and therefore the Sun readers too. Its true that the BBC always pander to the ruling party, but they don't have the blanket of total media support that some others have benefitted from.

BBC: "Fitch Ratings warned on Wednesday that it could downgrade the UK in the next few years if the government does not contain the level of public debt."

That professor should shut up really. Muppet.

You mean the public debt which would have been much lower if the economy had grown, rather than sliding back into recession (probably largely caused by excessive austerity measures)? They are also only talking about taking away Britain's AAA rating making it marginally more expensive to borrow - not financial meltdown.

You really do think you know better than a Nobel prize-winning economist don't you. He predicted that the government's policy would make things worse - it has, and now you are still claiming he was wrong. Amazing.

Loum - as binners said earlier - the efforts of labour are pathetic.

As for the propaganda machine - while the NI press are not supporting Cameron as much they are still pushing the neocon agenda which distorts the discussion. 1/2 of the press continually push a line the BBC has to incorporate that line in the interests of "Balance"

We have had a relentless tory press for decades. Not just NI but also the barclay brothers and others

its only recently that the murdoch has started turning on cameron, if the guardian & tom watson hadnt pushed and pushed on the the hacking story the met would never have been implicated, levenson would never have happened and murdoch would never have felt betrayed

So, even the labour party - reknowned party of social justice, recognise the fact, but TJ stands Canute (careful now) like, telling the tide to turn back, that we can keep on spending more than we take in taxes.

The big question is of course that unless we want to continue to spend less and less we first need to find a way to generate more tax income.
We were promised that the private sector were waiting to pounce and back-fill any public sector incomes lost, someone lied
Were now left with a loss of income tax to the exchequer plus a bill for benefits for a lot of the losses

So how is the tax revenue going to increase?

think kaesae has a point here. We're stuck with a system that doesn't work, and a society that's embraced the wrong values. It's chicken and egg - were we seduced by the excess and luxury the selfish free market-driven capitalist society offered us, or did we actually help to make it that way because we wanted endless stuff, to emulate celebrities, to keep up with the Joneses, and our governments just responded to what we wanted? Either way, certainly in affluent Western societies, we bought into it lock stock and barrel. Now the bubble's burst, and the one thing we don't want to look at is that it might be time to change our social values instead of our economic policies. All we seem to want is for someone to wave a magic wand and go "hey, it's alright again now, here's another credit card, off you go to Currys and buy a new HD TV".

It's not going to happen.

Yes I agree with most of this - however, seeing as it's not going to happen, I think we'd be better off with the party that doesn't nakedly support the interests of rich, selfish arseholes [i]quite as much[/i].

TJ - this present crop of Tories have managed something no-one earlier has managed. With the last budget, they've lost the support of the Torygraph, the Mail and the Express. That's some achievement.

Its because, under Thatcher and Major, there was at least the pretense that they were championing the aspirational middle classes. Not this lot. The 'omni-shambles' of the last few weeks, culminating in the budget showed that they shamelessly represent the interests of the top 1% only, to the complete exclusion of everyone else. We're just the mugs who are going to finance tax cuts for those at the very top

Even the Mail has now clocked this. And its not happy!

, I think we'd be better off with the party that doesn't nakedly support the interests of rich, selfish arseholes quite as much.

Interesting that when interviewed yesterday, Milliband refused to commit to reinstating the 50% tax band if he were elected PM at the next GE. After all his huffing and puffing about the cut to 45% why is such a commitment so difficult for him ?

I think we'd be better off with the party that doesn't nakedly support the interests of rich, selfish arseholes quite as much.

+1

Interesting that when interviewed yesterday, Milliband refused to commit to reinstating the 50% tax band if he were elected PM at the next GE. After all his huffing and puffing about the cut to 45% why is such a commitment so difficult for him ?

I thought he did say he would reinstate the 50% tax band? Could have sworn he did.

I think he said if there an election tomorrow it would come back. But "not prepared to write the next election manifesto now", which is fair enough.

TJ - I think we're politically of the same leaning, but I think they WOULD argue against cuts if there was a compelling enough case. The problem is, I'm not sure we can spend our way out this time.
Austerity and spending are unfortunately two sides of the same boom and bust coin that we've had around for too long.

Which is a shame because he has some reasonable ideas

I'm just posting to let Kaesae know I'm blanking his posts.

LMP - I disagree but hey ho

I thin they are too scared to do so because of the shitstorm the press would kick up

almost

Not wanting to contribute to the political / economic debate. I would like to say I've lost all faith in politics. No matter who you or I vote for it makes no difference. Politicians today are all the same, power crazed and bent.

Somewhat selfishly I'm gonna concentrate of what's best for my family, me and the people I employ. This is where I / we can make a difference.

200!

Arrrgghhhhhhhhh 🙁

I think we'd be better off with the party that doesn't nakedly support the interests of rich, selfish arseholes quite as much.

I am intrigued by the Tory cuts that have caused the current recession - can anyone help me?

Are we talking about the cuts in normal areas of government current expenditure (ie, pensions, health, education, defence, welfare)?

In the first two years of this government how big have these cuts been in money and real terms?

How much are these cuts expected to be this year?

How much of the announced cuts have actually been implemented?

[And for historic context, how much did (that awful) Mrs Thatcher cut government spending (money or real terms) over the course of her leadership?]

Thatcher actually raised public spending, despite all the rhetoric. This lot haven't reduced it much either. Yet.

But.... there's a big change of focus on where the money goes. More - a LOT more - will be funeled into the pockets of the likes of a4E, Capita and G4S, as they skim off fees for providing their shite service. Private Healthcare firms are presently licking their lips

Less money will go into actually delivering frontline services. A LOT less.

Theres little change in expenditure. A massive change of emphasis though

THM,
Thought you were the expert on the Tories?
How about you tell us what they've done to prevent this recession, and why we should trust them with the economy?

I already understand the "PANIC BUY PIES AND PETROL!" policy , but any others you could enlighten us on would be great.

mcboo - Member
I think he said if there an election tomorrow it would come back. But "not prepared to write the next election manifesto now", which is fair enough.

It was the line Cameron and Osborne spouting for almost all of their time in opposition.

But.... there's a big change of focus on where the money goes. More - a LOT more - will be funeled into the pockets of the likes of a4E, Capita and G4S, as they skim off fees for providing their shite service. Private Healthcare firms are presently licking their lips

This is why I will never in my life vote Tory. Blind faith in the private sector and a complete refusal to accept that profit driven companies cannot deliver frontline services that benefit the service users rather than the shareholders. I've seen it first hand - worked in contracted public sector service delivery, and it is absolutely rife with the taking of shortcuts, at the expense of both staff and frontline customers, to maximise profit for the shareholders, as well as fudging and outright LYING that goes on to make out they're meeting targets. Oh and lets not forget the ridiculous targets and financial benchmarks that price charities and nonprofits out of bidding for a lot of these contracts because they can't afford to funnel money into it upfront.

Ioum - not at all, that is why I am trying to understand. Amazing that Mrs T didn't cut spending then, I wonder why that was? And the current lot haven't cut spending either but as binners says, they have shifted the focus. So why all this talk of Tory cuts causing recession? Which bit am I missing?

I may have mis-read it but I thought the first real cuts in government spending were not forecast until 2013. Still very happy to be corrected.

How could the Tories have prevented the recession - they couldn't have. Ask "them" why you should trust them. Hopefully GO would be able to explain how his current policy mix is going to work. As I said above, even though Gavin Davies thinks it will eventually, I am less confident.

Nothing to do with the unsustainable growth of the public sector.

The focus of all parties on the financial and service sector at the expense of manufacturing.

Old Gordon selling UK gold at the lowest price gold reached in a lifetime. oH and Ed was his deputy at the time. Great CV that.

De regualtion by Maggie of the banking sector.

The "what's in it for me" or free hand out mentality that permiates through ths society.

How ironic these Liberals actaully have to make hard decisions. Decisions are so easy when you don't have to make them.

The bottom line is we are in a mess and looking to who to blame is a pointless exercise.

It's a recession not armageddon. Get over it and make the best of it otherwise you'll find life has passed you by as a bitter and twisted life which leaves no trace after you've gone.

FWIW our grandparents had it much, much harder, they survived and thrived. No NHS, World war, rationing, no soical support system.........

On the other hand lets blame a political party as I'm thick and can't see the wood for the trees. That way it's easy and I can sound off with a small dick syndrome.

armageddon.

So why all this talk of Tory cuts causing recession? Which bit am I missing?

[list]
- About 490,000 public sector jobs likely to be lost
- Average 19% four-year cut in departmental budgets
- 28% four-year cut in local government budgets [more if you're a Labour council in the north of England, not so much if you're in a Tory heartland]
- £7bn in additional welfare budget cuts
- Police funding cut by 4% a year[/list]

You're telling me these announcements have no impact on the economy and the all-important 'confidence' to purchase/invest/build etc? Ok then, you're the expert.

So that was lunch.
😀

TJ.
France, Germany. Ha !, sorry, I've had lunch.
😀

Your turn.
Tell us about Cuba.
You know, that lefty mecca where even the barbers were owned by the Gov there.
Hhmmm. That all worked out really well didn't it.

TSY.
I'm amazed you think you're qualified to post.
Obviously you're not and you amuse me greatly to see you thinking you can.
😆

I know !.

Lets all work for the Gov.
The Gov can pay all of us.....
From our own taxes...
Errr, oh. Hang on, is there a problem with that ?.

😆 😆 😆

^^^^^^

Oh Noooooooooo !!!.

Grum has the numbers out.

TJ Luuurrrrves numbers.
😉

Smiley tax? That could raise a fortune.
With my more recent experience of public servants (oxymoron?), there's still plenty of deadwood to be got rid of. Hardly a bastion of efficiency or money well spent.

Great argument Solo - nearly as good as wrecker's 'oooh loook he's got a silly name'.

Hardly a bastion of efficiency or money well spent.

Just like almost every large company I've ever dealt with then.

Great argument Solo - nearly as good as wrecker's 'oooh loook he's got a silly name'.

Thanks Grum - yes, they will have an effect. But if I read you correctly, these are future cuts ie one's that may do future harm, not current ones. So that may explain why spending may be cut in 2013. But that still leaves the question about how cuts have caused the current recession. Perhaps it something else altogether?

Just like almost every large company I've ever dealt with then.

[img] [/img]

Thanks Grum - yes, they will have an effect. But if I read you correctly, these are future cuts ie one's that may do future harm, not current ones.

Even just the announcements themselves have surely had a massive impact on confidence (like I said). Plenty of local and regional government departments are already tightening their belts now in anticipation, people are nervous to take on more staff, there are less contracts going out to private companies from government departments, people are spending less due to pay freezes and fear of upcoming redundancies etc etc

People see that the picture is bad now even before the cuts really bite, and fear the worst, so they don't buy/invest/build etc etc

Do I really have to spell this out to you?

Thanks Grum - yes, they will have an effect. But if I read you correctly, these are future cuts ie one's that may do future harm, not current ones. So that may explain why spending may be cut in 2013. But that still leaves the question about how cuts have caused the current recession. Perhaps it something else altogether?

is this a serious question? Christ!

Thanks Grum - yes, they will have an effect. But if I read you correctly, these are future cuts ie one's that may do future harm, not current ones. So that may explain why spending may be cut in 2013. But that still leaves the question about how cuts have caused the current recession. Perhaps it something else altogether?

1. Reduction in credit - banks are not giving out mortgages and loans to anyone with a heart beat. They can't because they have massive "investments" that aren't actually worth what they lent against.
2. Most economies going down the drain due to (too much overspending and reliance on cheap credit as per point 1).
3. Increase in productivity in all we do
4. Globalisation
5. Property markets re-levelleing due to point 1, 2
6. Public sector wastage. Oh noes.

What is the solution? There are many, but they will all be painful 🙂

Ok so its the impact of the threat of the cuts, I get it.

So in £s how big is the difference between the Tory cuts and the Labour ones (or as a % of GDP)? Would it be better if Labour were in power and by how much?

"is this a serious question? Christ!"

Don't bring him into it... we're having enough problems with that on that other thread over there. 🙂

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-17840447

cuts what cuts?