I see Putin Bot farmers are back
Still – gives Vance a chance to answer a range of questions of controversial Trump related topics by saying he didn’t see anything and doesn’t know anything about it.
On the trump one, when Rogan asked him if he'd lost, he (Rogan ) prefaced it by saying JD Vance had a brilliant response when he was asked as apparently he said "Can you prove that there weren't things that were done to influence the result?"
A slew of highly rated pollsters breaking for Trump today
Its certainly looking better for him
At this point I think dems only hope is that women break heavily fir Harris, but there's plenty of GOP/MAGA women out there
Putin & Musk will be immensely pleased
There's been a lot more "be wary of predictions" chat lately, the shifts in early voting are causing a lot of reaction but nobody's actually sure what they mean, and there's a good chance they mean nothing at all- republicans always have lower early voting and Trump amplified that and has now backpedalled on it, and while republican share has grown numbers overall have fallen, and seem to be reverting to more traditional early voters ie older, whiter. There's also a lot of stories about burning of mailboxes etc which are bound to drive some people away from mail-ins. So it's entirely possible that it's no more than a shift of voting method with no shift in voting intention, with a chunk of reversion to the mean built in, and none of the wider data collection seems to be at all conclusive on that. But few public pollster/talking heads want to be loudly saying "we don't know" right now, the nature of the beast in america is it's better to be strong and wrong than indecisive but smart. I'm pretty much just putting it under "who really knows", it's much like us in recent years, there's not as good a basis for polling as there once was, trumpism and the pandemic and increasing radicalisation and motivation have screwed with so many of the pillars.
In the absence of big swings, large undecided blocs, "quakes" and "october surprises" etc and a lot of other perennial headline favourites, it's also one of the few talking points that remains and also easy to understand and write headlines about, regardless of how flimsy it might prove to be. And of course it was made much more "interesting" with Trump's cult pretending it had fraud issues etc.
MSP
Full MemberBut is that appealing to new voters? From what I can tell his whole campaign is preaching to the converted, given the numbers of public anti Trump republicans, I just don’t see how he is attracting new voters.
There just aren't many real floating voters/undecideds left at this point and it's getting very hard to target them, because they're all either very disengaged from mainstream politics or total bloody idiots (and not just that, but bloody idiots who aren't as influenced by all the normal stuff targeting total bloody idiots).
But for sure after a few efforts at broadening his interest Trump is all-in on preaching to the crowd now and it's really hard to think it's not going to be damaging, that new york rally thing felt like either they've decided they can't lose and were doing a victory lap, or they've decided they're going to lose and are positioning for that. the puerto rico stuff just doesn't make any sense in a real ongoing campaign, it can't possibly win him votes at this point and there's no doubt at all it can lose them.
Unless there's something smarter and subtler behind the scenes and it turns out that in one of the swing states there's a democrat wedge that hates puerto ricans. But that seems pretty unlikely.
A slew of highly rated pollsters breaking for Trump today
Its certainly looking better for him
Not really. The polls are basically saying that it's too close to predict. The problem with any poll is that it is a sample of the population, but it's difficult to get a sample that is representative of the people who will turn out to vote. The pollsters have to try to predict the rates at which different groups will vote (e.g. college educated women, black males, etc.) and then adjust the poll data to reflect the predicted turnout. That's an impossible task, so a lead of 1% or 2% in a poll just doesn't mean anything as a prediction. For example, there are a lot of Puerto Ricans living in Pennsylvania and other swing states. It's possible that Trump's racist nonsense has antagonized them and they will turn out in large numbers to vote for Harris, but we just don't know. Harris might win in a landslide, even though the polls say it's a coin toss, or Trump might cruise to an easy win. We just don't know and a tiny swing in the polls just doesn't mean anything.
The problem with any poll is that it is a sample of the population, but it’s difficult to get a sample that is representative of the people who will turn out to vote. The pollsters have to try to predict the rates at which different groups will vote (e.g. college educated women, black males, etc.) and then adjust the poll data to reflect the predicted turnout.
Yeah, but everyone on my social media feeds say they're voting Trump so it must be right!
For example, there are a lot of Puerto Ricans living in Pennsylvania and other swing states. It’s possible that Trump’s racist nonsense has antagonized them and they will turn out in large numbers to vote for Harris, but we just don’t know.
I asked my American mate about this. His response was:
That's the problem. No one here speaks Spanish except people who we all assumed were Mexican. So we have no way of knowing any of this.
... he's a rare example of an American with an acute sense of irony.
Watched Panorama last night and it's terrifying! These people walk amongst us (them).
The American dream seems to have turned into an every man for himself nightmare.
My guess is his campaign are pretty confident and therefore I expect a Trump victory.
His campaign team spent the last 48hrs putting out the fires caused by the Puerto Rico **** up. I don't think they're confident at all.
I don’t think they’re confident at all.
This.
I was just reminded of that time trump took the piss out of that disabled guy. Why it did not end there is utterly sickening.
This
Watched Panorama last night and it’s terrifying!
I challenge anyone to watch this after watching BBC The Rise of the Nazis and not find it so.......small incremental steps and circumstances ending in horrific normalisation of attitudes and behaviours
Small incremental steps and circumstances ending in horrific normalisation of attitudes and behaviours
Classic salami slicing
The American dream seems to have turned into an every man for himself nightmare.
It's fueled by hatred primarily with a smattering of nationalism, other people (insert demographic according to your personal hatred profile) being why you haven't got a slice of the American dream.
on account of the whole travelling around the country campaigning in an election thing
She was in Texas though, that is where her no sing Beyonce rally was.
At the time of Rogan's interview with Trump, not at the time that he would have done an interview with her.
The problem with any poll is that it is a sample of the population, but it’s difficult to get a sample that is representative of the people who will turn out to vote. The pollsters have to try to predict the rates at which different groups will vote (e.g. college educated women, black males, etc.) and then adjust the poll data to reflect the predicted turnout.
What's also a factor now is quite a lot of people have already voted - if polls show a shift in opinion what does that actually effect if its now to late for some of those voters you're trying to extrapolate for have actually already voted
Looking back at our own election and the drubbing the Tories got - one of the biggest blows to their campaign was Sunak's D-Day cockup. It was incredibly wounding for the party, popularity wise and the last straw for a lot of tory voters......but the damage it did was mitigated by the fact lot of them had already voted by post.
I like to think I've been paying attention to news, comments, podcasts and I'm fairly convinced that Harris will win. I was going to put £100 on it but not pulled the trigger yet (I'm not a regular gambler). Pretty good odds (at Paddy Power) considering its a 2 horse race which is obviously concerning in itself
What’s also a factor now is quite a lot of people have already voted
Its the surge in early republcan registered voters that are giving concern , Republicans have smartly been advising their voters to turn out early, what Trump is now focusing on with Rogan and the Garbage stunt is those low propensity voters who arent that politically engaged & dont usually bother (young men) but could turn out for him, they are also a group thats hard to poll, those early votes in Nevada still looking good for republicans,, gulp!
At the time of Rogan’s interview with Trump, not at the time that he would have done an interview with her.
This is what he said the other day
You could look at this and you can say, ‘Oh, you’re being a diva,’ but she had an opportunity to come here when she was in Texas, and I literally gave them an open invitation. I said anytime. I said if she’s done at 10, we'll come back here at 10. I go, I’ll do it at nine in the morning, I’ll do it at 10 p.m. I’ll do it at midnight if she’s up, if she wants to, you know, drink a Red Bull.
This is what he said the other day
In the same way that Trump isn't going to make an appearance on Call Her Daddy, Harris probably won't go on Rogan. They've reduced the election to primary school girls and boys eyeing each other suspiciously across the hall at a school disco.
remember there were going to be 3 debates, but Trump did so badly on the first one he pulled out
That seems very wise now
Not sure Harris would have done well up against someone as partisan as Rogan, but she surprised everyone in the 1st debate!
Maybe they could have sent Bernie for a Rogan interview, he is the one likely to have got a more favourable interview, and more likely to break through to the Rogan demographics consciousness, and from what I have seen Waltz might have done well also.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/01/republicans-donald-trump-polls-us-election-lawsuits
The last couple of weeks i have been reading a few reports of biased polling trying to skew the narrative, this is the first time ive seen it in the Grauniard. It's just ghastly stuff
I was going to put £100 on it but not pulled the trigger yet (I’m not a regular gambler)
I put a cheeky twenty on kamala just before she was officially made a candidate... I'm still quietly hopeful.. I stand to get a 55 quid return... But I don't care about the win I just hope Trump loses!
Not sure Harris would have done well up against someone as partisan as Rogan
She held her own on Fox News and I don't think you get much more partisan than that.
Rogan interview would be a dangerous move for Harris. I could easily see a clash in personalities and Rogan picking her apart, and I think that's what worries them. It could also go very well but I'm not sure anyone knows until they sit down and talk.
I'm half way through the JD Vance episode, which made perfect listening for Halloween. I was struggling to get through it purely for the fact it's frightening these people are at the top of government. He comes across worse than Trump. Strongly held opinions and beliefs with seemingly little evidence. It's also interesting though, and dare I say it, somewhat refreshing, how relaxed they are about sitting down and talking openly about their beliefs, no matter how controversial. I can see how it might appeal to people, especially if you hold similar beliefs. The only reason I fear Harris would be picked apart is because she'd almost certainly go in guarded, and with a set script she'd be reluctant to deviate from, and Rogan wouldn't settle for that.
J.D.Vance on the Joe Rogan podcast got a good review in The Telegraph today - this is my third post and its politics again 🙂
I've not watched the Rogan stuff... I just think he's a bad actor and a bad person from some of the previous suff I've seen of him.
Him 'interviewing' trump and Vance I'm sure will just have been a 'circle jerk' as they might say in the US...
But I have absolutely no intention to find out... I already know all I need to know about Trump and Vance from the things they have already said on air, live.
And a cosy curated sit-down with a mysoginist like Rogan is not going to change that.
this is my third post and its politics again
Great news! You’re clearly enjoying it here with such intense levels of engagement but plenty more to talk about.
Kurtan
Full Member
J.D.Vance on the Joe Rogan podcast got a good review in The Telegraph today – this is my third post and its politics again ?
I've no problem with you paying to amuse us. 🙂
I wont be replying to you again after this though, if others wish to, that's up to them.lol
I thought Trump came across well on the Joe Rogan podcast, sense of humour, something missing from any interviews I’ve seen with Harris or Walz.
I have never listened to Rogan before. Trump comes across as being very laid back and talks at ease (I've got about halfway through). The issue is that Rogan gives him an easy ride, is conversational and just lets Trump talk. He is never challenging, rather just accepting of anything Trump states, he's just another sycophant offering a platform and validation (the gleeful giggle from Rogan when Trump states he is a fan of his it's particularly sickening).
If you listen to a few more of Rogan's podcasts you'll see that is his style, letting the interviewee talk. It brings out some entertaining insights into the guest, the one with Elon Musk is good and the one with Mike Tyson and his thoughts on Cus D'Amato.
If she does, I can hear his winey voice now, "nobody can believe she can get more than me, our ballots were amazing, our polling was amazing, they are nasty people, far left fascists who have stolen the USA again" then it all kicks off again.
Hopefully this time it'll be stopped quickly and more permanently as there is previous to support a stronger approach.
That is assuming he doesn't win...I'm going to be regretting posting that if he does and he does go all out on revenge! If he does win then he will be using a line about having previous to justify the madness he'll inflict.
DickBarton
Full Member
Hopefully this time it’ll be stopped quickly and more permanently as there is previous to support a stronger approach.That is assuming he doesn’t win…I’m going to be regretting posting that if he does and he does go all out on revenge!
My heart says Harris will win but my head says Trump will.
At the moment i think it seems pretty inevitable.
Some interesting stats that show the enthusiasm that this election has generated:
Voter enthusiasm is high, with Democrats more enthusiastic than Republicans. More than half of U.S. votes are likely to be cast before election day (and a pile of other stats in a Gallup article) https://news.gallup.com/poll/652853/half-votes-likely-cast-election-day.aspx
One interesting stat is that new voters turning out early include large numbers of Democratic women in Pennsylvania and Republican men in Arizona. Popular vote % have been closer in swing states than in other states, however, Penn is a swing state with 19 electoral college votes (ECV), the largest number amongst swing states, while Arizona has only 11 ECV.
Arizona is traditionally Rep, but Dems took it in 2020. Penn has always been close-run; Trump won it in 2016 and was elected, Biden took it in 2020 and was elected
My money is on Kamala Harris to win and win easily.
That is my gut feeling as well, I even think they might flip a republican state or two. I think if Harris wins it will be a comfortable victory, but the worry that Trump could win is still a very real nightmare.
I have a confession...
I absolutely want Harris to win for obvious reasons.
There is also a deep, dark part of me that wants her to win putely as I have a morbid fascination with what will happen when millions of EXTREMELY angry MAGA types, many with guns, are told by Trump and what is now a well oiled machine behind him, that the election was stolen. Again.
Come on, you are all wondering too. 😉
I'm with you apart from the well oiled machine part. It mainly seems to be idiots judging from the mob that stormed the capital last time. The same type of 'survivalist type' who cried because they couldn't have their mullet trimmed in lockdown. I genuinely think Trump will win and that puts us another step closer to Idiocracy becoming a reality.
Question for those people who have put money the election result at the bookies...
How will the bookies determine who won? (As any failure to "win" by Trump will obviously be contested)
The difference this time of course is that trump is not in the white house, Biden is. Much as trump will squeal if he's defeated at the ballot box, it's difficult to see where any kind of Jan 6th repeat goes, other than to prison. The security services are going to all over it like a rash.
The uncomfortable part is if, and it's a big if, the election gets contested and makes it to the Supreme Court. Ill be honest, I have no idea if that is even possible in US law, but it does make you pause for a moment when you consider where that's been going and why. But it's a long road of state by state challenges, and frankly many days of head in hands despair at the utter bullshit of it all simply because trump is incapable of saying, yep, fair play. I concede. You got more votes.
He's a cheat, so I imagine he thinks the other side must be cheating too. Otherwise how else could he have lost?
