Trump had some glorious, great, best ever expressions during the debate. The classic smile-not-smile, the wide-open eyes, trying-to-look-intelligent-but-really-not. But I really like this one - it shows what he thought of his own performance.
Very powerful stuff here from the parent of a child killed in a road accident, who is now being used for anti-immigrant political gain. He won’t get his apology though.
And Vance doubled down when asked about it - FFS how cruel and insensitive can you be.
it shows what he thought of his own performance.
Its reminiscent of this image
When you think of the real dramas a crises of his presidency - Covid and 1 million deaths and 40 million out of work, the race riots and so on - the only time he showed any sign that he'd expended real emotional effort was in having to face up the the press waiting for him after he returned to the Whitehouse after a bit of a poor turnout at a rally in Tulsa
“the silent majority is stronger than ever before” he declared to an arena full of empty seats, Silent and invisible.
It seems like Laura Loomer- Trumps current confidant and debate prep mastermind is having a very public smackdown with Marjorie Taylor Greene after MTG called her out for this racist tweet
https://twitter.com/7Veritas4/status/1834028279335960677
That is right wing philosophy in a nutshell, they can see the wheels falling of the bus instead of planning what is required to fix it, they are straight into backstabbing mode to position themselves to be the next driver without giving a **** that the bus is going to crash.
Trump has to do something dramatic to turn around the momentum, but it doesn't look like he and his etam are capable of not ****ing up anything they touch. From what I can see even the right wing media heads are starting to distance themselves from the outcome, as someone mentioned above it is part of their personality to attach to winners and distance themselves from losses.
It seems like Laura Loomer- Trumps current confidant and debate prep mastermind is having a very public smackdown with Marjorie Taylor Greene after MTG called her out for this racist tweet
We can laugh now - but inevitably not long from now thats what a page from Hansard will look like 🙂
Fox news are up in arms about the real time fact checking that put Trumps nonsense in the proper perspective.
This debate was a microcosm for the absurdity of the whole election.
Trump was petulant and impotent and clearly incapable of hitting the talking points he'd been coached about, because he's too thin-skinned to skirt the obvious bait questions. Then he got caught up parroting a stupid right-wing conspiracy theory about immigrants eating pets. It would be a brilliant absurdist parody if it wasn't disappointingly real. He later complained that Harris knew what questions she would be asked, implying that ABC news were somehow assisting her, apparently without realising that all the questions were standard fare and IT'S HER JOB - and his - to have answers to all this!
A complete display of incompetence on Trump's part. And yet almost half of the USA will vote for him irregardless*. "Leader of the free world" my arse. Putin and Xinping must be laughing - and why not?
Trump has to do something dramatic to turn around the momentum,
Is there any momentum at the moment? If anything Trump is the one making gains in the polls.
Harris is ahead but she needs to be ahead by more in order to overcome the Electoral College disadvantage.
The Dems obviously got a huge boost when Biden stepped down but since then things seem to have gotten very flat. Remains to be seen if the debate moves the needle in terms of polling. Harris got a slight bump after the debate on electionbettingodds.com but I would expect that to tail off over time.
I'm really not getting my hopes up for this.
Harris got a slight bump after the debate on electionbettingodds.com but I would expect that to tail off over time.
clips from the debate take a while to percolate through to those that didnt see it
That will help Harris as she got the better of him
you can hope that the Loomer/MTG scrap is indicative of the Trump campaign knowing they are blowing it, having been a shoe -in just a few months ago, and that this will precipitate more angry off message Trump
still going to be very close and its hard to be optimistic
Here's a forecast map made using fivethirtyeight.com polling averages.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
You can see the original forecast with undecided states shaded bronze here:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/consensus-2024-presidential-election-forecast
What I've done is simply made every undecided state where Harris is ahead by any amount a light blue and every undecided state where Trump is ahead by any amount light red. This shows that Harris is slightly ahead according to current polls, but it's very close. Harris pretty much has to win Pennsylvania, where she's polling 0.7% higher than Trump, but she can afford to lose Nevada and one other swing state. Trump really has to win Georgia and Arizona, plus two or three of the Harris leaning swing states. Basically, a nationwide 1 or 2% swing to Trump would make it very, very difficult for Harris to win.
latest poll has 3 point swing to Trump just giving him the lead in Michigan ( a place where his talk of tariffs on foreign cars goes down well)
That would give Harris the tiniest of leads and just 1 more state to flip for Trump and it'd be over
Its going to be a loooong 8+ weeks and Harris will have to work her arse off to keep in the race, nits absolutely hers to lose, the worry is she has peaked too early and doesnt have much higher to go.
Harris is ahead but she needs to be ahead by more in order to overcome the Electoral College disadvantage.
Well ths is the thing, the dems are almost certain to win the popular vote, but it's all about the strange electoral college system they have there.
One thing I have wondered for a while is how many women in republican families are going to secretly vote for Harris.
And also this... that's almost impossible to quantify, I guess the 'Taylor Swift' effect will also add to that, but who the hell knows.
I'm feeling quietly conifident on my £20 bet for Kamala, I stand to get about £55, where as the same bet today would only return about £36.
Twitter is mostly a cesspool these days but this did make me lol
https://twitter.com/FearghasKelly/status/1833826081754808363
https://x. https://twitter.com/FearghasKelly/status/1833826081754808363 https://twitter.com/FearghasKelly/status/1833826081754808363 com/FearghasKelly/status/1833826081754808363
https://twitter.com/FearghasKelly/status/1833826081754808363
https://twitter.com/FearghasKelly/status/1833826081754808363
Last few polls are showing Harris national poll lead gone, with Trump leading in several , she needs to to be +4 nationally to take the electoral college and is an uphill slog
^ Beggars belief
Last few polls are showing Harris national poll lead gone, with Trump leading in several , she needs to to be +4 nationally to take the electoral college and is an uphill slog
Links?
It looks close but Harris slightly ahead:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html
Sometimes I think that if the USA didn't speak English it wouldn't all seem so depressingly ghastly.
But they do, so it does
Watching the orange monkey blathering on another immigrants eating cats it’s difficult to argue with the Daily Stars appraisal of him from a few years back
I’m incredulous that nearly half of Americans think an absolute loon like him is even in with a look in at becoming president again. It’s absolutely insane!
The VP is on top of the trolling at Blue Sky
Someone has also done this
Last few polls are showing Harris national poll lead gone, with Trump leading in several , she needs to to be +4 nationally to take the electoral college and is an uphill slog
That's not what I'm seeing. 538 has her maintaining a steady 3% lead over the honey monster. There's a couple that are more favourable to him, a couple that give her 5%. Also, a lot of the polls are also deliberately correcting for the Trump denial factor, ie people not wanting to admit that they're gonna vote for him, on the basis that they badly underestimated this factor in 2016 & 2020, which meant he actually got more votes than predicted. Hopefully this anomaly has been dealt with.
Regardless the only polls that really count are the swing states. If she wins Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin she's basically there. They're all eminently winnable, particularly if the dems get the youngsters and ethnic minorities in the cities out to vote.
By all accounts the Dems have massive, professionally run operations in each of the swing states. The GOP was taken over by the Trump lot and unsurprisingly the feedback is they're badly prepared and essentially relying on local red hats to do the work for them (read amateurs who don't know what they're doing) in return for some shiny DT merch.
I'm hopeful
in return for some shiny DT merch.
Where do I sign Cletus?
Superficial
Free MemberHarris is ahead but she needs to be ahead by more in order to overcome the Electoral College disadvantage.
Mmm. With the polls where they are we're still in "nothing matters except the swing state" territory, neither candidate is gaining or collapsing enough to bring other states into play unless something hyperlocal happens. And tbf unless Harris has some sort of spectacular disaster I think there's zero chance of <any> previously safe blue state becoming a swing state, while the bluer swing states still feel bluer. But the low-voting youth vote remains a large random factor and potential growth, and Trump's got to be more likely at this point than Harris to switch voters off and lose them to nonvoting, so while few people are going to be switching most of the major turnout stuff looks to be in Harris's favour. Basically I reckon Trump is still close to maxxed out, which is scary and mad but also in its way reassuring, he can't go up much but he can go down. WHereas Harris has far more likelihood of going up.
So basically not <that> much point in listening to anything except post-debate swingstate polls of decent size, just keeping a wee eye on the 4%,5% states is enough, this is still a local general election. And it's definitely the case that the democrats have been attacking those while Trump is still almost entirely preaching to the choir. Course, some of that choir is in the swing states, maybe Michigan most of all.
But it's really noticable that frinstance all of this mad "eating your pets" stuff is targeting Ohio by name, and Ohio should be a pretty safe seat for Trump. In fact it's a right-lurching state which used to be a bellweather. (2020 was literally the first time Ohio went for the loser in 60 years) So considering that the actual conversation point is almost entirely made up, it's really weird to aim it there rather than picking up the most immigration-sensitive of the big 5 swings.
But right now I just don't think we've seen any useful numbers post-debate? Everything's really sticky and hard to move and I don't have any sense that any of them is an exception but I'd be surprised if we see a majority rightward slide.
PS, I just became sort of aware that I've posted a bit but I don't think I've ever actually said that Harris is doing so much better than I'd thought was likely, at best I'd given her faint praise and at worst I thought the party had pretty much discounted her as a future presidential candidate going by the last 5 years. I am very happy to be wrong, and now i'm feeling quietly, veeeery slightly confident and I hope I'm back to being right but what do I know 😛
538 has her maintaining a steady 3% lead over the honey monster.
I think I mentioned it before but Nate Silver now has nothing to do with 538. Here's his new site:
Just in case people are thinking that 538 is using the same methodology as it has in previous elections.
I know this may be a little confusing, but I continue to own the IP for all of the original FiveThirtyEight election models and forecasts. The remaining staff at 538 have created some cool new versions of their own, but I haven’t played a role in anything they’ve built since June 2023.
Then you have people who don't understand how things can be played. Especially if your opposition don't care about why they'll just shout louder their truth.
I dint really know much about her but let's hope she brings down the whole of the GOP with her
What a lovely person ?
It's true the right wing really does age people - just found out she is 31 yrs old! Figured she was at least 50 from the pics I've seen of her.
And when MTG is telling you you are racist you know you are really out there
Yeah this Loomer is a proper disciple proving to the other zealots (MTG et al.) that she deserves a seat at the top table by the only means the new right allows - more outrage and division than the last disciple. However none of them realise how easily discarded they are despite understanding the rules of the game.
Terrifying.
just found out she is 31 yrs old! Figured she was at least 50 from the pics I’ve seen of her.
I think bits of her are probably only a few weeks old. Theres a 31 year old in there somewhere I suppose. Before and after:
think bits of her are probably only a few weeks old. Theres a 31 year old in there somewhere I suppose.
My daughter was on about this the other day, all the youngsters who have Botox, lip fillers etc actually look older to us because they end up looking exactly like the older people who've had the same treatments.
Pretty interesting to watch this stuff, it'd be nice to think we've entered "we are going to lose, time to fight over the scraps" phase but Loomer and MTG and Graham have always hated each other. Loomer's a proper outright lunatic, has been since she spent her university career hatching out conspiracy theories and endlessly trying to entrap and "out" liberals with a series of crazy schemes that got her suspended. But you have to keep moving right just to stand still with these people so if you started out that bad you end up in really weird places...
Graham wants rid of MAGA so they can get back to being respectable right wing pieces of shit, he misses the old party and the good old days of being more subtle about your racism and lies while being slaves to big business, you know, proper republicans.
And MTG I think it's half that she's competition and half that she's jewish. Oh and half that MTG is possessed.
Graham wants rid of MAGA so they can get back to being respectable right wing pieces of shit, he misses the old party and the good old days of being more subtle about your racism and lies while being slaves to big business, you know, proper republicans.
He and plenty of others like him had the power to do exactly that. Twice. Two opportunities to impeach Trump handed to Graham and the rest of the old school republican senator - both of which would have prevented Trump from running for election again. Trump is the cuckoo in their nest, and they know he is but they keep feeding him.
If Trump wins (and latest polls in swing states, even a few post debate ones) show some good numbers for Trump
Then the GOP will be stuck with him until he finally has his Elvis moment on his gold plated crapper
Good writeup here on why in spite of everything that makes him the worst possible person for the job, he's got a very good chance
https://www.natesilver.net/p/this-was-trumps-election-to-lose
Interesting article about Ms Loomer on the Beeb - my imagination or is it a bit "nudge, nudge, wink, wink" about her connection to Trump
BBC News - Laura Loomer: Who is conspiracy theorist travelling with Trump?
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly8y27dwgpo
my imagination or is it a bit “nudge, nudge, wink, wink” about her connection to Trump
Speaking of which, what is Melania up to these days?
I can fix her.
Are you a divorce lawyer? I think she needs a divorce lawyer
My daughter was on about this the other day, all the youngsters who have Botox, lip fillers etc actually look older to us because they end up looking exactly like the older people who’ve had the same treatments.
Probably for another thread but....
She's right.... Saw a clip the other day off a doctor guessing the age of the girls who worked at a "beauty" salon. He guessed their age and then they revealed their real age and the number of Botox "procedures". The doc was generally way off with his guesses and each time way north of the true age.
I've at least two cousins who resemble that Loomer tart, but then I'm from Essex.
