If you think about the people he appeals too, it's not hard to understand the charisma he has and the fact they think like he does.
It'll be a tough one.
I might just stick my neck out and say he gets in.
[quote=moonsaballoon ]He got 33% of the vote in a republican primary so what would that mean in votes an actual General election ? Would be interesting if the republican race was only 2 candidates like the democrats , where would trump be ie 77% of people didn't vote for him
VIew i like Corbyn being massively popular with labour voters and able to win their leadership but much less popular with the General electorate
Like Corbyn [ though even more so] a large swathe of the party detest him and he wont even win all the Republican party votes
He may be popular within the party he is not with the electorate
He has very little chance of winning the actual race to the white house as he appeal to a narrow band of the party rather than the electorate as a whole
American politics strikes me as being massively partisan amongst the electorate but much less so when it comes to the horse trading inside congress. (That's just an impression - I'm sure the reality is more nuanced.)
As I understand it, there are lots of reasonable republicans, for whom Teump would be an embarrassment. Is there any polling on how these republicans would vote if it was Trump v A.N. Other (Dem)?
Would they vote a monkey from the GOP rather than a democrat? Would they just stay at home? Would some of them actually vote Dem to keep Trump out?
Many members of the GOP detest him so it seems reasonable to suggest that many of their core voters will abstain
He is many things but he wont be winning over the middle ground moderate and surely anyone, whatever their actual politics, can see that this man would be a ****ing disaster in any important role requiring compromise, diplomacy and a modicum of not being an utter utter ****
In a country of bizarre political races...I thought Palin was pushing the boundaries of credibility... 😯
I also sense a large part of the republican vote would abstain. Then again, they've had (or will have had) eight years without one of their own at the White House...you never know.
Indeed
However its a bit like we only had one right wing party and they vote frage- plenty of right leaning ofok would not be supporting him even in a two horse race - well they might if Corbyn was the alternative but you get the point
I think we just have to remember that the party members are considerably more right wing than the electorate as Palin and Trump show
I pray that Bush was the extent of the US dalliances with a moron but time will tell.
If he gets into the whitehouse, it will put american politics back by 10 years!
You might not agree with OH-bamas policies, but at least he has his own brain and you think, can understand how to tread the middle ground. Trump is a rich idiot, and the US is bad enough already when it comes to being insular and self obsessed.
Clinton attracts almost as much hatred from sections of the GOP vote as does Trump from the Democrats. There will be many GOP voters who don't particularly want Trump but most definitely will not abstain and let in Clinton. It's a two horse race, he really could win it all 😯
@bikebouy, I misread the situation, totally really. Trumps popularity/familiarity from his 10+ years on the TV plus his "no nonsense / not politically correct" messages have been very powerful
Download your own coloring (sic) book [url=
😆
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Loved this:
Brilliant. Let's just hope enough people are listening in 'Merica.
Struggling to see why jambalaya and LHS wouldn't be fans of Trump.
Never heard of John Oliver before but enjoyed that. Drumpf he will be for me for evermore (especially with the Chrome extension 😀 ).
Holy thread resurrection Batman.
It looks like he may win.
My take on it is this: He is going to make N. America self sufficient and his foreign policy is "We don't care"
He appeals to the working class, even donning a baseball cap which is so cliched I'm amazed he gets away with it. He's republican now (was supportive of the Clintons) and they are not usually sympathetic to the actual needs of the working class but he may appeal to their aspirations.
He has tapped into a deep well of discontent which has been festering in the USA for sometime. He makes it look like there's a simple answer to all of this - remove any outside interference.
Personally, I think Bernie Sanders has the best attitude but he's too old!.
Its sort of interesting how this will play out. Trump gets in, advisers around him says "No, you can't do that because of x,y,z" Sacks anyone who doesn't do things his way. Try's to deliver on his promises and then it all falls apart globally.
Whay am I concerned? Its USA's business but they have an influence.
closetroadie - MemberPersonally, I think Bernie Sanders has the best attitude but he's too old!
He's only a couple of years older than Reagan was when he took office.
The sad irony... Repeated polling says Sanders is best placed to win- he outperforms all other presidential candidates. But he won't get a chance to run, because his party is going to select Clinton, who is considerably less likely to win.
Obviously, polling is only polling, but these results are being returned pretty consistently now. Pretty bizarre tbh- polling of democrats has often suggested that they see electability as a key reason to vote Clinton over Sanders, even though the exact opposite seems to be the case.
@closet - this thread seems to be the main one these days [url= http://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/us-election ]Linky[/url]
Yes sadly it looks like he will win the nomination and may well win the election come November
@Northwind Bernie would not stand a snowballs chance of winning the Presidency. Zero. If the Republicans could get him to win the nomination they'd make it happen - think Corbyn here. In any case he's so far behind Hillary he cannot catch up.
Best description of Hilary was from a comedian commentator on Fox who said she was 'clunky' She doesn't seem to have anything to say and is relying on her experience of being in high office.
Ronald Reagan didn't act old.
Trump may be the better republican candidate, some of the others are scary god fearing types.
jambalaya - Member@Northwind Bernie would not stand a snowballs chance of winning the Presidency.
Yes, that's the propaganda. It just doesn't seem to be true, is all. So it goes, with propaganda.
He won't have the opportunity, sadly, but that's a different matter.
I was just wondering how long Jama would take to make a Sanders = Corbyn comparison.
The situation does seem daft. Trump deeply unpopular with everyone, except his supporters. Sanders with most popular with democrats and least unliked bu the republicans, but no chance of getting the nomination. Even if he wins the popular vote the super delegates would swing it in favour of Clinton, who divides opinion all across the board too.
bit of a shake up with Saunders doing better in the polling
not sure if the boost for Kasich is a last ditch effort or a pat on the back for the one who can't win.
His declaration that he won't abide by the promise not to run anyway seems a threat to the convention, Trump vs Cruz/Kasich Vs Clinton/Saunders would be a blood bath for the Republicans.
A lot of Americans I talk to have a quite visceral loathing for Hilary. If it comes down to Trump v. Hilary, I wouldn't bet against him.
EDIT: although those same people also agree that Trump is an idiot. But that's not the same as saying he's unelectable.
His comments on McCain. What a c***.
Even if Trump fails this time, it's clear someone like him gets a lot of support. A slightly less extreme version will almost certainly be president with 10 years.
The situation does seem daft. Trump deeply unpopular with everyone, except his supporters.
Sounds like most politicians to me.
The Trump has revealed how he gets his motivation from old Elvis songs. 😯
[url=
If he gets nomination doubt he'll get presidency because of his unfavourable rating currently 63% (highest of all candidates) Hillary is at 54% not matter how much people hate Hillary they hate him more Bernie is 42%.
Would be interesting to see if his nomination splits the party there are plenty of republicans stating they'd vote for democrat candidate or stay home.
I was just wondering how long Jama would take to make a Sanders = Corbyn comparison.
Its an obvious one though, populist (relative) left wing candidate good for headlines but with no chancs of being elected. In US political terms Bernie is a communist. IMO Hillary and the Democrats are far to the right of Cameron and the Conservatives. As I've said befire I am for Hillary
The recent furore over Trump's abortion comments are very illuminative - the press desperate to create a controversy. If you listen to what he actually said in responce to the question; (my summary)
[i]Interviewer: If abortion is illegal shouod there be a punishment / consequences ?
Trump: Yes probably
Interviewer: but you always have a firm poistion/view
Trump: I do normally buts its complicated [/i]
We here are in danger of living in oir own bubblemofmoress reporting without appreciating that Trump is a lot more popular than we want to admit
without appreciating that Trump is a lot more popular than we want to admit
The BBC really are bad for this; they still seem to be in denial about his popularity.
The BBC's coverage of US politics hasn't had any balance for years, it is appalling and a major failing.
The BBC's coverage of politics hasn't had any balance for years, it is appalling and a major failing.
Ftfy
Hillary and the Democrats are far to the right of Cameron and the Conservatives
Where the F does that put Trump & GOP??
You want to stop whatever it is your smoking because there is no way the Dems & HC are "far to right of the Cameron & the Conservatives"......
Edit: the sane Americans I know all think that Trump will get his ass handed to him on a plate should he & HC be in the same room together i.e. a debate.
If you're interested in US politics listen to the Rachel Maddow podcasts, fascinating stuff at the moment!
If you listen to what he actually said in responce to the question; (my summary)Interviewer: If abortion is illegal shouod there be a punishment / consequences ?
Trump: Yes probably
Interviewer: but you always have a firm poistion/view
Trump: I do normally buts its complicated
And if you read [url=
POLITIFACT.COM further context beyond that[/url] still seems bad.
He also says repeatedly that he is "pro-life" or "pro-life with some exceptions".
Which seems a bit different to 1999 when he was asked "Would President Trump ban partial birth abortion?" and he said [i]"I'm Very Pro Choice.. I hate abortion.. but I believe in choice..."[/i]
😯
Edit: the sane Americans I know all think that Trump will get his ass handed to him on a plate should he & HC be in the same room together i.e. a debate.
That's a self-selecting group though isn't it?
Hillary has a really toxic brand, at least fifty percent of which is deserved.
konabunny - MemberHillary has a really toxic brand, at least fifty percent of which is deserved.
Yup- a really important stat is "would never vote for" and Hilary is just barely behind Trump in that. And Clinton and Trump have similiar disapproval ratings- Trump 59% negative, 38% positive, but Clinton 53/44. These are both completely shit numbers to be taking into a presidential campaign. (as opposed to Sanders 60% positive, 33% negative) Cruz also has a negative rating. I don't think the message of how disliked she is gets across (Bill otoh still gets a positive rating, it's not a "boo Clinton" thing). I suppose the bottom line is, she's the experienced candidate, her entire selling point should be "I'm already doing the job" but every time she says it, a decent chunk of voters say "Aye, and you're shite at it"
Another, among Sanders supporters, 33% say they'll never vote for Clinton compared to 32% who say they'll never vote for Trump! There's a strength and weakness here, Sanders is far more likely to pick up opposition votes than Clinton- but his supporters are also far more likely to go to the other side.
OTOH I saw in Utah, 16% of previous voters said they'll refuse to vote if the choice is Trump or Clinton, which is downright tragic especially given groundswells of nontraditional voters, but a natural side effect of turning the election into an unpopularity contest.
Again, all just polls- but a hell of a lot of polls, coming up with similiar and parallel results. I'm not overly trusting of polls but it's better than just declaring everything to be how you think it is, or swallowing whole perceived wisdoms.
(I must admit, I'm completely astonished about the Bernie thing, I think like a lot of people I'd fallen for the idea that just saying "socialist!" rules people out. I think a lot of us have underestimated normal Americans tbh. But it's the clown car you see the most. I don't think he has a play that can beat his party but the take-away lessons for both parties are simply this- the rules aren't what they thought they are.)
good for headlines but with no chancs of being elected.
It is an obvious comparison, but it's the line above I take issue with. It's a line repeated so often as if it's a fact when I think both would have a very real chance of being elected, if their parties let them get on with it.
What I find amazing is ([url=
to the HuffPo[/url] who admittedly are rabidly anti-Trump) the abortion question just doesn't matter to some. They quote one woman at the meeting as saying:
"I don’t vote based on abortions. I think there's more important things," said Deboard, who described herself as pro-choice. "Look, if ISIS comes over and kills us, I'm not real concerned with abortions. There's more important things to deal with here. We're way beyond abortions here. If you want abortion, you can go get one. I guess I'm pro-choice, but I'm not strong. Like I said, I have more important issues I'm concerned about."
So there's someone who is so caught up in the fear that the terrorists are coming and only Trump can stop them that she is willing to ignore things that actually have much more of an impact on her community.
You want to stop whatever it is your smoking because there is no way the Dems & HC are "far to right of the Cameron & the Conservatives"......
@mrlebowski ... Hilary/Democrats support tax rates way lower than we have in the UK with numerous deductions particularly beneficial to the wealthy, they support unemployment welfare ending after 2 years, they support a degree of universal healthcare but its a tiny fraction of the nhs, they support the right to bear arms and despite numerous mass shootings have done little to reform the law or restrict access to automatic weapons, they support military spending and intervention far in excess of the UK
Your point about the Republicans is well made, they are right out there.
So there's someone who is so caught up in the fear that the terrorists are coming and only Trump can stop them that she is willing to ignore things that actually have much more of an impact on her community.
That part is a little bonkers, bus as. I read around the subject at this point the only way to ban abortion is via the supreme court as they have already ruled it's legal (possibly via the Constitution) and here is the bigger problem, the president cut do a lot without party support (or a lot anyway) but can **** things up.
As for BBC bias and not taking Trump seriously nobody was, even in deepest darkest Conservative American back in October he was nothing but a joke. People are still waiting for the punchline.
Clintons biggest weakness, and Trumps greatest strength:
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Trump is clearly telling a positive line about the economy - it may be pie in the sky, but at least he's got a bloody plan!
Thats doubly telling when you tackle 'change vs more of the same' as Clinton is very much 'established order'
and as for healthcare... well, regardless of the absolute need for something, Obamacare remains toxic to all too many - Trumps line of "“I would end Obamacare and replace it with something terrific, for far less money for the country and for the people,” is obviously bollocks, but at least its 'change vs more of the same'.
“I would end Obamacare and replace it with something terrific, for far less money for the country and for the people,” is obviously bollocks, but at least its 'change vs more of the same'.
I suspect the only option there would be a full blown NHS style system. The money saved on bureaucracy alone would be huge
just can't help himself can he 🙂
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🙂
Is he for real or a carefully scripted construct?