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The ones I feel sorry for are the UK farmers
The turkeys who voted for Christmas.
The fishing lobby is not going to be happy either.
I don’t think our Brexit is going to be anything like as hard as has been previously threatened.
This. It'll be BRINO, followed by business as usual for a few years. The ERG will be ignored, they'll be powerless for a while, but will start to complain and the whole brexit debate will start again in the run up to the next election in the form of no deal vs soft deal. Labour could recover very quickly on a pro-soft brexit stance and an overtly pro-regions programme of investment and devolution of power away from London. They could make an instant start to that by proposing Parliament be moved north.
"The ones I feel sorry for are the UK farmers."
Just like the UK Fishermen and the 'working class northerners' - **** them. They voted for this shit show, they shat all over their bed, now they can live with the consequences of their actions. They can refer to it as their Brexit Dividend.
Universal credit is going to seem like utopia by 2029.
Another prediction? Both EU & USA trade deals will occur quicker than many people will expect… on terms more acceptable to them than us
We cannot do comprehensive quick trade deals with both of them, because they will have opposing demands. US will want us to reduce standards to accept their stuff in return for buying ours, whereas EU will need us to maintain standards to sell to them.
I wonder about the following:
Will Boris be running in 2024? His party have got a large majority, but has he? There will already be Tory MPs plotting his downfall or at least their own bid for PM.
He'll get his (May's) withdraw through early next year, but will the ERG buoyed by the GE want him to scrap that now for a 'clean break'? Even if that doesn't happen - once the civil cold war of Brexit eases and politics becomes boring again, will he be able to function as 'just the PM'.
Once again - not everyone in the North voted for this shitshow... Did no one in the South return a conservative MP? Oh yes, so they did.
Once again – not everyone in the North voted for this shitshow… Did no one in the South return a conservative MP? Oh yes, so they did.
I wouldn't take it personally, some people are still at the Anger and Barging stage of grief.
BBC to become full on Tory/Boris/Cummings propaganda vehicle (More so than whatever you think of it now), if it wants to continue to exist in anything like its current form.
Look like sensible ideas to me. Boundary review for example. Last done before 2006 in England. Earlier in Scotland. Long overdue. Usually done every 8 - 12 years.
The good thing about the proposals being in the manifesto is that the House of Lords can't block them.
Why do some of you think it will be a soft brexit?
Johnsons paymasters want a no deal brexit
"I wouldn’t take it personally, some people are still at the Anger and Barging stage of grief."
If that's pointed at me, then I am at the resigned / accepting stage.
Despite a lifetime of being left of center and voting for whichever party would be best placed to create the better society, I now feel absolutely exasperated. The conservatives have been pretty clear around the society they wish to create and those who will be worst hit are the very same as those who voted for them.
I acknowledged this risk before the brexit vote result and put things in place to try to ensure that I & my family will be minimally affected. At the end of the day, I am white, middle aged, middle class, educated and established in my career. There will be many far worse off than I. Christ, I'll probably be given a tax cut.
However those that will be worse off under this government and their policies are those that voted for this shower. I've seen comments on social media along the lines of "I voted tory because with my minimum paid job plus universal credit, I can't afford rent" and "I voted Tory because of the way PIP benefits was handled and I want better benefits" Those folk can lie in their soiled bed after their dirty protest.
They voted with their eyes open to create a worse life for themselves.
Who exactly are BoJos backers? Trump, or Putin, or both? And at home - the disaster capitalists people keep talking about?
Disaster capitalism works best with a full on disaster, not with a "bit of a bad day" so if the plan is to make them rich(er) then it's got to be "disaster set to 11".
Why do some of you think it will be a soft brexit?
Johnsons paymasters want a no deal brexit
Johnson only cares about face, not about ideology because ideology requires principles. He's set a deadline that he'll try to meet, and the only way to meet it will be to agree to the EU's demands and not argue too much. So a quick deal requires a soft Brexit.
Who exactly are BoJos backers?
Billionaire financiers, Crispin Odey, Aaron Banks types.
Look like sensible ideas to me. Boundary review for example. Last done before 2006 in England. Earlier in Scotland. Long overdue. Usually done every 8 – 12 years.
The good thing about the proposals being in the manifesto is that the House of Lords can’t block them.
Only reason they’ll do that is to further cement their position in power in future elections. You think that there being no checks on government policy is a good thing?
I reckon that Boris and Cummings ( among others ) will manage to stay in position just as long as it suits the shadowy puppet masters in the background, and as soon as that changes there will be some sort of scandal all over the broadsheets that’s will “ force “ them to resign.
How long ?
A year to 18 months ... 2 years max
as soon as that changes there will be some sort of scandal all over the broadsheets that’s will “ force “ them to resign.
Given all he’s got away with so far, that’s going to be a short list of things that are bad enough for him to resign over, yet not criminal.
Rather predictably this potentially seems to be happening already.
It is going too be a pretty shitty 5 years. Similar to Thatchers years I imagine which I remember all too well.
When he finds out you actually have to work at this job. When he realises he can’t just waffle through the odd speech now and then and Chuck a bit of Latin about, that there is hard graft afoot, he’ll be off like a shot.
I doubt he's planning to do any work, simply goof about and blame everyone else.
It's worked so far ...
I doubt he’s planning to do any work
I think e should ask Cummings first. He already looks like he's aged 5 years over the weekend. He's knackered and all he's done so far is about face on worker protections and threaten to end the Beeb. Guess he didn't think they were sufficiently uncritical.
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tomhowardSubscriber
as soon as that changes there will be some sort of scandal all over the broadsheets that’s will “ force “ them to resign.Given all he’s got away with so far, that’s going to be a short list of things that are bad enough for him to resign over, yet not criminal.
Yes, but so far those broadsheets haven’t wanted to get rid so they haven’t
Once it suits they’ll decide even a relatively trivial thing becomes a resignation issue
He already looks like he’s aged 5 years over the weekend.
A weekend on the coke will do that ....
Molgrips - or a no deal. Any deal the EU offers will not be to his paymasters satisfaction. the only thing that will satisfy them is no deal
Barclay brothers are also his paymasters as are GoldenTree Asset Management who paid him a pure bribe of almost £100 000 ( for a speech) Plus numerous others who have bribed him. He is as corrupt as they come, cares nothing for ideology only about power and riches and he will do the bidding of those who bribed him which is No deal brexit
This is Johnsons declared extra income
1. Employment and earnings
Payments from Hodder and Stoughton UK, Carmelite House, 50 Victoria
Embankment, London EC4Y 0DZ, via United Agents, 12-26 Lexington St, London
W1F 0LE:
29 September 2017, received £15,372.17 for royalties on book already
written. Hours: no additional hours. (Registered 20 December 2017) This is
a late entry which was the subject of a Report, published on 6 December
2018, by the Select Committee on Standards.
229
17 October 2017, received £1,167.40 for Bulgarian and Hungarian
subrights and royalties on book already written. Hours: no additional
hours. (Registered 20 December 2017) This is a late entry which was the
subject of a Report, published on 6 December 2018, by the Select Committee
on Standards.
8 February 2018, received £499.49 for Czech subrights on book already
written. Hours: no additional hours. (Registered 12 March 2018) This is a
late entry which was the subject of a Report, published on 6 December
2018, by the Select Committee on Standards.
30 March 2018, received £6,013.27 for royalties on book already written.
Hours: no additional hours. (Registered 17 April 2018)
17 April 2018, received £560.13 for Czech subrights on book already written.
Hours: no additional hours. (Registered 09 May 2018)
10 July 2018, received £11,290.17 for French and US royalties on books
already written. Hours: no additional hours. (Registered 22 August 2018)
This is a late entry which was the subject of a Report, published on 6
December 2018, by the Select Committee on Standards.
28 September 2018, received £8,968.27 via United Agents, 12-26 Lexington
St, London W1F 0LE, for royalties on book already written. Hours: no
additional hours. (Registered 02 November 2018)
12 December 2018, received £525.12 for Hungarian subrights on book
already written. Hours: no additional hours. (Registered 17 December 2018)
16 January 2019, received £909.78 for US subrights on book already written.
Hours: no additional hours. (Registered 04 February 2019)
Payments from HarperCollins UK, 1 London Bridge Street, London, SE1 9GF via
United Agents, 12-26 Lexington St, London W1F 0LE:
26 September 2017, received £1,382.58 for advance on book already written.
Hours: no additional hours. (Registered 20 December 2017) This is a late
entry which was the subject of a Report, published on 6 December 2018, by
the Select Committee on Standards.
11 January 2018, received £5,970.76 for US and Dutch royalties on book
already written. Hours: no additional hours. (Registered 05 February 2018)
5 July 2018, received £37.82 for French royalties on book already written.
Hours: no additional hours. (Registered 22 August 2018) This is a late
entry which was the subject of a Report, published on 6 December 2018, by
the Select Committee on Standards.
23 October 2018, received £491.75 via Rogers, Coleridge and White Ltd, 20
Powis Mews, London W11 1JN, for royalties on books already written.
Hours: no additional hours. (Registered 02 November 2018)
Payments from HarperCollins UK, 1 London Bridge St, London SE1 9GF, via
Rogers, Coleridge and White Ltd, 20 Powis Mews, London W11 1JN:
30 September 2017, received £42.79 for royalties on books already written.
Hours: no additional hours. (Registered 20 December 2017) This is a late
entry which was the subject of a Report, published on 6 December 2018, by
the Select Committee on Standards.
230
30 April 2018, received £244.91 for royalties on books already written.
Hours: no additional hours. (Registered 09 May 2018)
19 December 2018, received £435.72 for Ukrainian subrights on book already
written. Hours: no additional hours. (Registered 15 January 2019)
5 September 2017, received £63.72 from Penguin Books Ltd, 80 Strand, London
WC2R 0RL, via United Agents, 12-26 Lexington St, London W1F 0LE, for
royalties on book already written. Hours: no additional hours. (Registered 20
December 2017) This is a late entry which was the subject of a Report, published
on 6 December 2018, by the Select Committee on Standards.
From 11 July 2018 until 10 July 2019, articles for the Telegraph Media Group
Ltd, 111 Buckingham Palace Road, London SW1W 0DT, for which I expect to
receive £22,916.66 a month. Hours: 10 hrs a month. First payment received on
13 August 2018. I consulted ACoBA about this appointment. (Registered 17
September 2018) This is a late entry which was the subject of a Report, published
on 6 December 2018, by the Select Committee on Standards.
Payments from The Spectator (1828) Ltd, 22 Old Queen Street, London SW1H
9HP, for articles:
28 September 2018, received £800. Hours: 2 hrs. (Registered 15 October
2018)
21 December 2018, received £350. Hours: 2 hrs. (Registered 15 January
2019)
9 October 2018, received £2,000 from Associated Newspapers Ltd, Northcliffe
House, 2 Derry Street, London W8 5TT, for an article. Hours: 2 hrs. (Registered 02
November 2018)
2 November 2018, received £94,507.85 from GoldenTree Asset Management, 300
Park Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10022 via Chartwell Speakers, 14 Gray’s
Inn Road, London WC1X 8HN, for a speaking engagement on 8 November 2018.
Travel and accommodation also provided. Hours: 2 hrs. (Registered 09 November
2018)
Payments received through via Jeremy Lee Associates, 14 Berners Street, London,
W1T 3LJ, for speaking engagements. I consulted ACoBA about this arrangement.
(Registered 16 January 2019)
21 December 2018, received £28,900 from KNect365, KNect House, 30-32
Mortimer Street, London W1W 7RE, for a speaking engagement on 4
December 2018. Hours: 2 hrs. Transport and accommodation also provided.
(Registered 16 January 2019)
25 January 2019, received £51,250 from Pendulum Events & Training, 13
Upper Baggot Street, Dublin 4, D04 W7K5, Ireland, for a speaking
engagement on 10 January 2019. Hours: 2 hrs. Transport also provided.
(Registered 04 February 2019)
2. (b) Any other support not included in Category 2(a)
Name of donor: Jon Wood
Address of donor: private
Amount of donation, or nature and value if donation in kind: £50,000 for office and
staffing costs
Date received: 1 October 2018
231
Date accepted: 1 October 2018
Donor status: individual
(Registered 17 October 2018)
Name of donor: CTF Partners Limited
Address of donor: 4th Floor, 6 Chesterfield Gardens, London W1J 5BQ
Amount of donation: Interest free loan of £20,000 for office and staffing costs,
repaid on 18 January 2019.
Date received: 20 December 2018
Date accepted: 20 December 2018
Donor status: company, registration 07196537
(Registered 04 January 2019, updated 18 January 2019)
Name of donor: CTF Partners Limited
Address of donor: 4th Floor, 6 Chesterfield Gardens, London W1J 5BQ
Amount of donation: £3,000 for office and staffing costs.
Date received: 21 December 2018
Date accepted: 21 December 2018
Donor status: company, registration 07196537
(Registered 04 January 2019)
Name of donor: J C Bamford Excavators Ltd
Address of donor: Lakeside Works, Rocester, Uttoxeter ST14 5JP
Amount of donation, or nature and value if donation in kind: £10,000
Date received: 15 January 2019
Date accepted: 15 January 2019
Donor status: company, registration 00561597
(Registered 18 January 2019)
3. Gifts, benefits and hospitality from UK sources
Name of donor: Surrey County Cricket Club
Address of donor: The Kia Oval, Kennington, London SE11 5SS
Amount of donation, or nature and value if donation in kind: Two tickets with
hospitality to Test Match at the Oval, value £1,800
Date received: 8 September 2018
Date accepted: 8 September 2018
Donor status: company, registration IP27896R
(Registered 01 October 2018)
Name of donor: Democratic Unionist Party
Address of donor: 91 Dundela Avenue, Belfast BT4 3BU
Amount of donation, or nature and value if donation in kind: Hospitality and travel
to Belfast for myself and a member of staff, estimated value £355.94
Date received: 24 November 2018
Date accepted: 24 November 2018
Donor status: registered political party
(Registered 20 December 2018)
4. Visits outside the UK
Name of donor: American Enterprise Institute (AEI)
Address of donor: 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036
Estimate of the probable value (or amount of any donation): For myself, flights
£6,666.09, hotel accommodation £1,459.52 and other costs of £1,059.56; for my
staff member, flights £6,666.09, hotel £994.82; total £16,846.09
232
Destination of visit: Washington DC, USA
Dates of visit: 13-15 September 2018
Purpose of visit: To receive Irving Kristol Award at AEI Annual Dinner.
(Registered 15 October 2018)
Name of donor: Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Address of donor: PO Box 55937, Riyadh 11544
Estimate of the probable value (or amount of any donation): Travel, food and
accommodation, estimated value of £14,000
Destination of visit: Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
Dates of visit: 19 – 21 September 2018
Purpose of visit: Meeting with regional figures to promote education for women
and girls.
(Registered 17 October 2018)
6. Land and property portfolio: (i) value over £100,000 and/or (ii) giving rental income
of over £10,000 a year
From 1 November 2016, house in London, owned jointly with my wife: (i) and,
from 1 March 2017, (ii). (Registered 20 March 2017)
From 4 October 2018, a 20% share of a residential property in Somerset: (i) and
(ii). (Registered 17 January 2019)
And yet they’ll still vote for him. The conservative banners will be draped over the farmers fence/wall/hedge at the next election up and down the country.
It's funny that people are always pointing the finger at shadowy figures who apparently are making money from Brexit/Johnson/Tories, yet all the people I know personally from this sort of world (a couple of hedge fund managers, former CEO of a major bank, etc) are all pro-Brexit, anti-Johnson, anti-Trump. They're also anti-Corbyn, but that's a different story.
JP
are all pro-Brexit, anti-Johnson,
If they are pro brexit who are they pro if not Johnson, Farage? Rees Mogg?
Apparently the appropriate response to the EU being concerned that a deal can't be done in a year and them suggesting they might ask for an extension is to pass a law prevented an extension being granted. So a nearly hard brexit looks like it is back on the table. Seems like ERG aren't nearly as sidelined as people thought.
No deal is what Johnsons backers want
A no deal Brexit isn't just about short-term financial gains for BoJo's backers, it's also about the continuation of disaster capitalism which started post financial crash when austerity was enacted, allowing the Tories to slash government funding without much rebellion as people sucked it up as a necessary evil. The chaos that will ensue from a no deal Brexit will allow this continue but more likely focused on fundamental changes to legislation to more radically shape the country to the Tory ideology than would otherwise be possible
"we need to boost the economy and research shows the best way to do this is by cutting corporation tax." Can't remember which Tory MP I heard claim this on a Radio 4 interview on increasing revenue through taxes. I guess the extra taxes will come from the plebs, since we have so much money already.
Also, "we [the Tories] believe everyone should be subscribing to a mandatory healthcare insurance scheme". Different minister, different interview. The day after votes were counted.
People vote for all sorts of complex reasons. In USA one of the most powerful factors in voting habit is whether abortion should be legal. Democracy rulez OK.
Apparently the appropriate response to the EU being concerned that a deal can’t be done in a year and them suggesting they might ask for an extension is to pass a law prevented an extension being granted. So a nearly hard brexit looks like it is back on the table. Seems like ERG aren’t nearly as sidelined as people thought.
Cummings is a fan of game theory.
Expect brinkmanship to feature front and centre in his strategies for everything possible.
My Nan witnessed the soldiers being sent in by Churchill during the Tonypandy riots so I grew up/indoctrinated anti Tory. I didn't think anything could get worse after seeing the decline of the Valleys post 1980s but now who knows?
I'm beyond any disdain for them- they're only playing to type. I feel more aggrieved that Labour couldn't make a decent opposition.
I'm in the same demography as scruff so although I'll hopefully be ok, there will plenty that aren't.
Cummings is a fan of game theory.
I wonder if he has read the chapter about the fly the buzzes around the humans face vs the one that doesn't. One gets squashed. There is a difference between brinkmanship and needling the people you need goodwill from.
Complex problem - clearly the fault of the French...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-50823925
I suspect we'll see a lot more of this too.
No deal is what Johnsons backers want
Probably, but this is Boris we're talking about here, a man that will lie at the drop of a hat to get what he wants. In this case a 5 year premiership with a v healthy majority, most of whom owe their newly found MP-ships to Boris, not his shadowy cabal of backers. So who exactly is he in thrall to now? They may well have spent money getting him there, but given the shape of the govt he now commands...You can probably add them to the pile of yesterday's men; the ERG and the DUP...
You don’t think Boris will just charge his backers more for his services, now he has a loyal set of MPs who owe their jobs to him, so will be able to push any agenda through without risk of parliament getting in the way?
are all pro-Brexit, anti-Johnson,
If they are pro brexit who are they pro if not Johnson, Farage? Rees Mogg?
That should have read 'pro remain' doh!
JP
^^ that makes more sense!
Employee rights out the window. The screws to be turned on the EU nationals living here. Also, anyone watched the purge lately?
We'll end up with an independent Scotland connected to a united ireland via a bridge between the mull of kintyre and Ballycastle.
There'll be a series of smaller road bridges spanning the sea lochs between Tarbert and Helensburgh.
There'll also be a rail track extending along glen Croe down into the mull of kintyre.
That should keep the surfers happy;)
Boris hair gets even messier.
Dominic Cummings turns slightly green and appears in public on a hoverboard.
Already they're backtracking on promises made about raising the minimum wage (can't do it if the economy falters, which it will with brexit) and social care for the elderly (push it back to LAs to deal with who themselves have been cut to shreds). Aussie politics as I remember it was all about populism, insults, aggression, name-calling and where did Lynton Crosby come from? Oddly, whilst the BBC went out of its way to rubbish Labour, the Tories are now talking of decriminalising not paying your license fee but they are proposing to criminalise local authorities supporting BDS.
My worry is that working people around here (some of whom have sfa, maybe a car and a phone) who voted Tory are unable to articulate why and will end a discussion with 'they're all the same'. Government policy for years has not been evidence based but ideological and this has filtered down into people's thinking. The cohorts that voted Tory in significant numbers were non-graduates and the elderly, both of whom would rely heavily on the mass media and the Tories would love to see a larger role played by Fox News. I am amazed at the disparity between people's preferences and their lived experience, maybe they want someone to 'look up to' (JRM?) or a 'natural born leader' (BJ, just like Churchill?) and maybe they think they deserve to be poor, 'know your place'. How depressing. Progress for the next 5 years will only be made outside of parliament.
This thread should be renamed ‘sore losers’
Good article here about why people vote for liars
https://theconversation.com/why-people-vote-for-politicians-they-know-are-liars-128953?