[Closed] Conservative Government, 2019 to 29(ish). Predictions?

An End to the UK. United ireland and independent scotland now look highly likey

A united Ireland is possibly one of the small silver Linings to this **** storm.

Economic depression within 2 years.

Death Penalty

oh and

#freebinners

I wonder what'll happen to Wales when Ireland gets unified and Scotland becomes independent. I think people here have in the past looked to Scotland and NI as equal constituents of the UK but it's going to feel pretty shite if we're the only ones left stuck with England.

Fox hunting replaced by ne-er-do-well hunting.

2021 Ne-er-do-well Hunting biopic starring Matt Damon as BJ sweeps the boards at the Oscars.

I'm English and fed up of it at the moment, don't tar us all with the same brush please
I have a horrible feeling there'll be five more years of austerity, even wider inequalities and even more post-truth bulls###
I work in the public sector and find it staggering that half my office voted conservative today when they're worse off from the last nine years

Economic boom anyone?

^^
Short term, yes, possibly. Mainly as it's been in stasis for so long. Medium term onwards it gets (sadly) interesting.

I suspect that I will be hunted down by Tory secret police because I didn't vote for them. I'll then live out my days in an internment camp which will pretty much just be the north of England.

hopefully something like this

Johnson sells everything possible.
Johnson goes orange.
Johnson rebuilds hadrians wall.

No achievable trade deal with EU, crash out with no deal

Like single mums and the DUP, I think the ERG are going to be the next group of folk that are going to find out, you really really can't trust Johnson. There's no reason for Johnson to listen to them at all. I don't think our Brexit is going to be anything like as hard as has been previously threatened.

Like single mums and the DUP, I think the ERG are going to be the next group of folk that are going to find out, you really really can’t trust Johnson. There’s no reason for Johnson to listen to them at all. I don’t think our Brexit is going to be anything like as hard as has been previously threatened.

Depressingly, this is about the most optimistic thing out there at the moment.

Agree with nickc- Michael Heseltine was saying as much on the radio the other day. In some ways a Tory landslide is better than a slim majority as he doesn't need the hard liners.... that's assuming the moderate tories are still moderate.

We're still by and large ****ed though

Johnson will be gone soon, he will be replaced by a much more compliant operator to actually push through the changes. His job was merely to win the election, although I doubt he knows, the financiers don't want an incompetent buffoon around for too long, that would cause a backlash. They will leverage his per-election baggage, the Russian interference report and his fraudulent financing of his pole technology expert to move him on quickly.

I imagine a few autobiographies written by leading politicians attempting to cash in.

I predict they'll be sitting around a table discussing what to do about the troublesome Scots

@somafunk thankfully I have a stash of bottle caps for such an eventually. Anyone know the chemical composition of Jet?

I work in the public sector and find it staggering that half my office voted conservative today when they’re worse off from the last nine years

Maybe. but you have to respect the will of the majority - to be poorer, eat crap food, and step over homeless people on the way to their zero-hours job.

I don’t think our Brexit is going to be anything like as hard as has been previously threatened

I can see the headline:

Johnson goes flaccid after election high.

You don't have to predict anything. It's in the manifesto.

.

I don’t think our Brexit is going to be anything like as hard as has been previously threatened.

The ultimate irony. The only way to do Johnson's mythical quick deal is to stay aligned with the EU, so what exactly was the point of the whole project? This was always on the cards; we waste an enormous amount of time and money on Brexit to basically end up with the status quo, minus any influence within the EU.

@torsoinalake

It's just a manefesto, they never get delivered anyway and half the things on that list would either get batted down by the Lords or challenged in the supreme court

It's a dpressing read, but manefestos are fictional anyway

The boundary changes, this will be one of the first things to further solidify tory control - JRM and Cummings have been far too quiet

Fentanyl addiction to reach epidemic levels in small towns across the country

I agree with nickc too - we are in the proverbial but we could be in deeper. Johnson can afford to flick the ERG the V's now, and they know it. A small majority would be ghastly.
Expect a pivot in 5,4,3........oh he's a one nation tory now! I'm shocked, shocked I tell you. Just like his old chum CMD. And now the red lines are getting a bit pink, and oh, there you go, Brino.

Politics is about being in power, and the cost? The rebate and a veto.

Don't get me wrong, there is going to be some dreadful changes ahead. I can't see the break up of the Union being one of them though. Northern Ireland maybe, Scotland no. Leavers need to be consistently polling c60% to nail that one on.

"The ultimate irony. The only way to do Johnson’s mythical quick deal is to stay aligned with the EU, so what exactly was the point of the whole project? This was always on the cards; we waste an enormous amount of time and money on Brexit to basically end up with the status quo, minus any influence within the EU."

I suspect "The point of the whole project" was nothing like anything we think or could imagine it was.

Between 2008 and 2016 I lived in South Africa (for the second time after living there for 8 yrs as a kid) and I've seen a lot of similarities between what's been going on in the UK over the last 5 years and what was going on in South Africa during "the Guptagate" years. the Big Picture is nothing like and has nothing to do with the stuff they have everyone squabbling and arguing over.

As Fraser from Dad’s Army would say “we’re doomed”.

Johnson will be gone soon,

When he finds out you actually have to work at this job. When he realises he can't just waffle through the odd speech now and then and Chuck a bit of Latin about, that there is hard graft afoot, he'll be off like a shot.

I don’t think our Brexit is going to be anything like as hard as has been previously threatened.

Depends. Want it done by the end of 2020? Either give in to everything the EU wants or go out on WTO rules. Either way that's 4-6% off the GDP on top of what the looming slowdown does.

Want a 'real' free trade agreement? 5 years. Meanwhile, a shrinking economy, payments to the EU and no say whatsoever.

No extra nurses, no extra police, no new hospitals, plenty of lies and there’s **** all we can do about it

Actually can we impeach the PM for lying? (And for financial gain via Brexit)

Johnson will be going nowhere. He has to deliver for his paymasters

No deal brexit will happen as well. It's what those who pay him want

that there is hard graft afoot, he’ll be off like a shot

I know someone who worked directly for him at the FCO… he’ll be going nowhere, and is perfectly able to avoid the hard work, and sell himself as being the man suitable for his role precisely because he avoids that work.

Prediction? A lot of resigning ministers taking the blame for his government’s mistakes. A lot of civil servants retiring early, or moving posts, to try and avoid the sticky problems coming down from the top.

Johnson will be going nowhere. And he’s already won the next election; boundaries and laws will be changed to ensure it.

go out on WTO rules

That won’t mean anything by the end of next year. Some of the biggest global players are going to neuter the WTO so that they can do what they want with smaller players (like us). They probably wouldn’t have taken this route if it wasn’t for us decreasing the power and size of the EU. It’s a reminder that we made a decision that effects the whole world in 2016, not just Little Britain.

Another prediction? Both EU & USA trade deals will occur quicker than many people will expect… on terms more acceptable to them than us… we won’t have the WTO arbitration to fall back on, or be able to unilaterally stop ourselves falling out of the single market and customs union… we will sign anything.

at the FCO… he’ll be going nowhere, and is perfectly able to avoid the hard work

I was thinking about that when I wrote it. Much harder to hide behind underlings when you are PM than foreign office. It requires actual homework to even sound remotely in touch. I think the usual waffle won't hold up for long. Remember he has borrowed votes from people who don't normally vote Tory. They are not going to be patient.
He already looks like a man at the end of his rope. He's knackered and hasn't even started.

Both EU & USA trade deals will occur quicker than many people will expect

What are we going to sell them? Most of our exports are services (around 80% iirc). They are going to take us to the wall.

The most obvious partner, in terms of existing relationships, is Canada. They share our monarch, after all. Their banking system is highly regulated, so no chance there. There farmers are well protected, so that's out. Even the Americans couldn't crack those red ones and they are worth over 20 times the trade.

The ones I feel sorry for are the UK farmers. No EU subsidies, no market to sell to. They are in for hard times.

That won’t mean anything by the end of next year.

Maybe, but our deal is supposed to be done before that. So eye watering tariffs all around.

The ones I feel sorry for are the UK farmers.

I agree. They’ll be sacrificed.

I think BoJo is exactly who the puppet and pay masters want, they don't want someone with a clear political ideology themselves, they want someone that just wants to be PM and is happy to be told what to say and do.

I think the next 5 years is still largely going to be about Brexit and the next GE will be about whether the Tories can convince those in the Labour ex-strongholds that there continuing/worsening situation is the EU's fault rather than the Tories fault. If they can then the following 5 years is when we'll see the true Tory policies start to kick in.

I'd certainly be worried if I was in middle to senior management in the Civil Service, Cummings is about to gut it - it's his main prize for masterminding this whole shit show.

I predict lots of petty mini Gammon pleasing acts in the first year or so. Petty, trivial stuff that requires little effort to put in place, gets good coverage in the daily Mail but contributes nothing postive to the country.

See the current thing about decriminalision non payment of the BBC licesnse fee and criminalision of traveller camps. Expect more of that sort of thing. Some sort of anti cycling laws would also serve this aim, which worries me.

The ones I feel sorry for are the UK farmers

The ones with all the Brexit and Vote Conservative signs in their fields?

I think BoJo is exactly who the puppet and pay masters want, they don’t want someone with a clear political ideology themselves, they want someone that just wants to be PM and is happy to be told what to say and do.

Plenty of good reading here about that idea…

https://bylinetimes.com/byline-times-box-sets/box-set-boris-johnson/

More matching scarves?
https://news.sky.com/story/mps-return-to-westminster-for-a-week-of-re-shuffles-meetings-and-votes-11887895