As detailed in the story here:
Covid: Cash refusal 'creeping into UK economy'
What's people's thoughts? I know it's been discussed on here before but the whole thing has definitely accelerated throughout 2020. Lots of places have removed limits for card/contactless payments over the last year and a few places have trialled experimenting with cash-free tills, usually bars and restaurants in bog towns and cities, so wondering what everyone else's experience is with it all. My old job was delivering the stuff so I have a slightly distorted view of it all but I was doing it long enough to see the decline from everywhere swimming in the stuff back in 2009 with ATM's everywhere, lots of bank branches around and even lots of the country still paying in cash for their weekly shop down to the last few years where that has mostly gone.
Have you or family/friends embraced or resisted the switch to digital payments?
I genuinely can’t remember the last time I had cash on me! Slightly distorted by the fact I’ve hardly been anywhere recently tho!
the only thing I ever need cash for these days is parking. (although I have about 15 different parking apps on my phone, there is always one that doesn't)
and the chinese takeaway.
i have noticed a lot of the smaller businesses down here (South Devon) are only taking cash , usually saying there is a problem with the card reader. Make of that what you will.
I don't think its going away in a hurry
People still use cash?
Most of the time i use a card (or phone) mainly due to ease. I've had the same £30 in my wallet since March '20. I only really go into a bank 3 or 4 times a year, but i'd hate my local branch to close.
When I used to work on site all day i'd always stop and buy a paper for lunch time. Since my job has changed and i've been 50:50 on site with no set hours and WFH I've also stopped buying a paper too (which i miss)
Only time i have had cash in my hand for the last year has been when selling stuff through facebook and someone turned up to collect.
That and my barber was cash only but i have been once since start of lockdown.
I think its essentail for older people and for private sales of goods but in 20 years I see it gone almost completely.
I always preferred using cash for small purchases as I knew how much I had left that way. Over the last 10 months I've probably used cash twice. Partly because of everywhere going card only, partly because the places I used to use cash (coffee shops, street food vans) haven't been open.
the few places i used cash pre-covid now accept card :0)
positive and negatives, i feel sorry for those on lower income who use cash to budget.
but as a PAYE tax payer, bring it on, those who scotch and dont report income will soon have to.
brexit / covid and this change, will mean higher prices for all :0(
I have £10 in my wallet. It has been there since Dec 2019. I have not honestly used cash for over a year now, happy to see it disappear but would want to see a 'public' bank for everyone.
My mum and dad... still get out cash every week from the ATM to spend in the supermarket (where the ATM is).
Cash is just annoying. The sooner it goes, the better. Parking is my biggest gripe, who carries £6.50 on them?
My local chippy has recently got a card machine and started free delivery. I feel like I'm living in the future! 🙂
Yip same here, £30 in my wallet for months and months. We were discussing last night where is all the cash that usually floats around the economy? The ATM's wont be getting filled as regular as they usually do and majority of cash economies pubs, takeaways will have been shut or gone online.
Last time I spent cash was in November to get a haircut (rapidly approaching overgrown hedge currently) and a parking spot in North Yorks back in December.
It's a terrible end for a formerly great tennis player.
As a small business I still take cash. And I still pay for things in cash on a regular basis.
Occasionally I'll get paid (for small jobs) in cash but I think I've had a total of £30 in cash in my wallet over the last six months, about a quid in small change there ATM (sic). The last time I had to use cash was for the "pop and shop" parking bay in town, 20p for quarter of an hour or whatever. So it's really just very small value transactions like that.
In previous discussions the things that I can see staying cash based (legally) are events like fell races - a lot are turn up on the night, pay a couple of quid and grab your number. Your average race organiser isn't going to have a card reader of any sort (no idea if they are rentable or how much they cost anyway) and some of these races are 50 people max in a good year. They could go on-line pre-booked but being so low key it takes away the ad-hoc nature of them. But increasingly things like this are the exception rather than the rule.
Cashless is, probably, fine for the likes of us, it's the less advantaged that are likely to struggle.
Saw an article last year about Sweden being all but cashless so it will come.
Pre covid I'd only keep a fiver or tenner in the back of my phone for the pub round after the night ride, and I'd use it for a haircut if I went to the local barber rather than using the family hairdresser when I took the kids.
It's a shame that just as they got sensible and did waterproof polymer notes I don't have reason to carry them any more.
Card for everything else, even tradesmen tend to either do email invoice I can pay by card straight away or have one of the little Square or similar readers.
Have even managed to go to the shops a few times now without my wallet at all and decided to trust Apple Pay - no issues so far, no practical limit to how much you can do (unlike contactless cards) and avoids touching a keypad.
I'll be glad if/when it goes completely.
My gripes:-
Parking machines that don't take chip and pin or ringgo type services.
I can have it on my phone but they do allow Apple Pay.
Pre covid I’d only keep a fiver or tenner in the back of my phone for the pub round after the night ride,
Fiver or Tenner for a round of drinks!? Was this back in 1982!? 🙂
People unwilling to handle, well anything during a pandemic is hardly a shocker, but cash has always been something a lot of people think is 'dirty' because it passes through so many hands.
As for the gradual decline in cash, it's just one of those slow-changes that is only going one way, some people associate cards with debt, some people like to use cash as a way of managing their spending and yes, some people like to use it as a way to keep their financial affairs private, which for some means private from the Tax Man.
I think cash will still exist for at least another generation (30 years or so) but it will be less and less useful. I suspect within a decade cash might only be issued and accepted by banks and between private individuals.
Cards are more convenient for 99% of people, 99% of the time. I believe you can't even withdraw your state pension in cash anymore, and if you can use an ATM you can use an EPOS machine.
Only use cash for parking - could use a mobile app, but it is a work phone - and when want to send one of the kids to a corner shop rather than go myself. Could get rid of both of those if needed.
Cannot remember when I last used or needed cash tbh. Maybe a year or so ago. Everything is google pay on my phone and hopefully Garmin pay soon on my watch type thingy.
If a business only takes cash, I don't use them.
Nowadays tax avoidance is the most likely reason to only take cash.
Actually I keep a tenner in my Evoc waist pack for when Peel cafe can't get WiFi lol.
People will get all concerned about cash going as card/electronic payment isnt 'real', but really, cash isn't actually something physical, its just a representation of 'money' and has no more value than the electronic bank balance.
Less and less people don't have bank accounts now, and wage payments, purchases going electronic help prevent fraud/spot money laundering/tax evasion etc etc.
I wont loose much sleep when cash goes....
People still use cash?
Local butcher and chippy is cash only, and they're both the best around, so it's a necessary evil. I still forget every time though!.
Could get rid of both of those if needed.
Bit harsh on the kids ...
Cash dying out certainly won't stop fraud or tax evasion! There are far cleverer ways for that now - just ask Jeff Bezos!
Some interesting comments on here
I only really go into a bank 3 or 4 times a year, but i’d hate my local branch to close.
Why? I think branches are a relic and the only time I go in to one is when the bank hasn’t brought in decent tech to avoid the need to do so (RBS still don’t allow you to scan that cheque that you elderly aunt sends to the kids at Christmas). Didn’t bother me in the slightest if branch closes
I think its essentail for older people and for private sales of goods
Why do you think that? So many alternatives to cash available. My parents are mid 70’s and never use cash. How old to you have to be to qualify for cash being essential? I sell lots of stuff on Facebook, always ask for PP or transfer payments, no issue.
I regard cash as a pain and happy to see the back of it.
It'll die a slow death like cheques. Back when I started at Midland Bank all the clearing banks had their own cheque processing systems. As the volume dropped they moved to a single shared service with multiple sites. Now they're down to one site.
Sweden used to have the most ATMs per capita in Europe in the 90s. Now they're way down the list as cash is almost dead. No cash = cash van robberies, reduced tax avoidance etc.
Why my dumb as **** credit card provider (Tesco, I’m looking at you) don’t allow Google Pay so you can have it on my phone but they do allow Apple Pay.
Because Apple are hard as nails and use both carrot and stick to get people to do what they want. See the fight that the Australian banks put up to not support Apple Pay before giving in.
It's useful to pay for parking especially in Anglesey where the pay to park app doesn't work as there is no mobile or any type of G signal. Grrr Anglesey council
We have a 6 year old who is losing her teeth.
Trying to find a coin to put under her pillow is becoming more difficult as we haven’t had any cash for almost a year.
Does Bezos own the chippy?
100% against it - every time you don't use cash your paying for it.
This is a HUGE issue for me and has been a big worry over the last year.
I run very small village shop, we have banking facilities on site (post office). Pre 2020 80% of our transactions were cash. Now we are lucky if it's 10%. What's the issue? The card machine costs and charges have increased with the card use (predictable) - so I'm now paying upto 2.5% per transaction to the card machine / banks. It's costing me around £1500 extra. We are a tiny buisness, multiply it across every shop, cafe, etc across the country and it's a HUGE issue.
On top of that cash withdrawal is massively down, I make a commission when ever someone take cash out, I have to pay every time someone uses the machine.
The banks are taking it in, they ultimately want you to use your card - it keeps cash in the bank rather than your pocket and every time you use your contactless or pin they make a small amount of money.
Regards banking, the postoffice has 12,000 branches where you can bank cash, cheques etc.
Virtually dead here in Sweden. Everything is with card, mobile phone or an app called Swish, in which you can send a fiver (actually slightly more here :)) to a mate for the beer he or she brought, or buy stuff secondhand for example. It's instant and you can 'see' it transfer on your phone.
The only people who want cash are old people or technophobes. But ever they have mobile phones and bank cards.
Totally for it, makes pocket money for kids a little bit tougher though
It’s useful to pay for parking especially in Anglesey where the pay to park app doesn’t work as there is no mobile or any type of G signal. Grrr Anglesey council
i have similar in some of the beaches I surf at in cornwall. now (well, not right now) just pay for parking before I leave the house.
I'm sure that for middle-class people sat on furlough ordering their online shopping from Waitrose, they can't remember the last time they used cash.
But we're about to enter the biggest recession this country has ever seen
let's see how those predictions of our move to a cashless society are looking in twelve months time once the real economy has re-opened, there's mass unemployment and everyone is skint
Cash is about to make a bigger comeback than vinyl
And a lack of open bank branches won't be an issue because none of it will be going anywhere near a paying-in counter at the Natwest
ninety something percent cash (by number of transactions)
card only used if i really have to and would genuinely consider the requirement
i haven't had to touch googlepay etc.
ive no issue with electronic money not being 'real' i pay a mortgage, council tax, phone/BB, insurance, mot, bills etc. my income is taxed/NI'd and placed in a bank account. i dont need my personal pattern of life to extend beyond that.
as per monkeyboyjc above, most of the smaller, local retailers appreciate cash
I suppsoe it's a bit of sentimentaility and bit of keeping it open for everyone (the old and technophobes).
I suppose i see it as aprt and parcel of the demise of the high street. For a variety of reasons the high street in teh town i live in is pretty much a ghost town.
Monkeyboyjc, that is interesting view from the other side.
Not questioning your version, just genuinely curious. Do you not have costs associated with cash handling as well? Time spent counting, travel to bank, fraud etc. Not suggesting these offset the card charges completely but they must count for something?
FWIW I wouldn't notice a 2.5% increase in price on anything, appreciate this isn't the same for everyone but I would happily pay that for convivence of not having to use cash.
I've used Monzo as a cash replacement for the last 5ish years, I send it some money and I can easily monitor how much I have spent or used on a weekly basis. It also does roundup, so it's like the change pot I had before building up some savings with no effort.
Cash is less useful than it once was but I doubt it will go completely in our lifetime. Lots of Cambridge based restaurants on the Mill Road (one of our most popular roads to find food on) for example are cash only, whether they still exist later this year remains to be seen. I haven't noticed any dealers with a SumUp machine, but maybe that's just because I don't have a dealer.
As for people sending me cheques, what the hell, I'm miles from a place that opens in office hours only where I can pay it in, for the amounts involved is it rude to just shred them?
How do you 100% cashless people transfer your shopping from supermarket to car boot?
As for people sending me cheques, what the hell, I’m miles from a place that opens in office hours only where I can pay it in, for the amounts involved is it rude to just shred them?
barclays app lets you just take a photo of a cheque to pay in now. I assume others are similar.
How do you 100% cashless people transfer your shopping from supermarket to car boot?
go to a supermarket that doesn't expect you to steal the trolley...
How do you 100% cashless people transfer your shopping from supermarket to car boot?
Generally in reuseable bags by hand
I suppose i see it as aprt and parcel of the demise of the high street
I don't get that. I'm far more likely to make an impulse purchase on my high street if I can just tap my watch to pay for it.
How do you 100% cashless people transfer your shopping from supermarket to car boot?
Servants.
I haven’t noticed any dealers with a SumUp machine, but maybe that’s just because I don’t have a dealer.
Joking aside, this is a rather large part of the black economy and whilst I suspect recreational drug use is down at the moment I suspect it'll rocket again post-Covid. Be interesting to see how such deals are done if we do approach cash-less.
100% for it – every time you use cash your paying for it.
Cash handling is a pain for many businesses and also attracts charges from the banks to deposit. Bank's gonna get you either way.
How do you 100% cashless people transfer your shopping from supermarket to car boot?
The man carries it from the van to my door. Sometimes, if we have an extra large order of wine, he uses a sack barrow to wheel it down the driveway.
Not questioning your version, just genuinely curious. Do you not have costs associated with cash handling as well? Time spent counting, travel to bank, fraud etc. Not suggesting these offset the card charges completely but they must count for something?
FWIW I wouldn’t notice a 2.5% increase in price on anything, appreciate this isn’t the same for everyone but I would happily pay that for convivence of not having to use cash.
Essentially we have the bank on site as we have a PO, I also make a very small commission each time I bank the days takings. Time spent banking is around 30secs and I get paid for it.
Regards fraud ive had one fake note in 6years trading. So £20, I've not had any charge backs on the card machine, but it's actually easier to reverse a card transaction than make a fake note. We have insurance for this also, which we have to pay for. So regards fraud - cards are more expensive.
Thing is regards the 2.5% it comes off my margins, and when as a grocery store you make around a 20% margin on lots of goods reducing that to 17.5% with a card transaction over cash adds up to quite a significant amount.
That £1500 pa in the past would have been spent on improving the buisness, so new / additional stock, better fridges etc. Now it's just going in the pocket of the bank to invest somewhere off shore I expect.
There is a big drive for 'shop local' or 'shop British' but there should also be a pay with cash drive....
Cash handling is a pain for many businesses and also attracts charges from the banks to deposit. Bank’s gonna get you either way.
Cash heavy buisness need to look for a bank AC that don't charge for high volumes of deposits. My bank charges are way way less than my epos machine.
I’m far more likely to make an impulse purchase on my high street if I can just tap my watch to pay for it.
Agree 100%, maybe i'm linking two things that aren't necessarily linked.
But we’re about to enter the biggest recession this country has ever seen
let’s see how those predictions of our move to a cashless society are looking in twelve months time once the real economy has re-opened, there’s mass unemployment and everyone is skint
Cash is about to make a bigger comeback than vinyl
KPMG and PWC both forecasting a 5%-7% rise in GDP in 2021 taking us back to pre-covid economic levels by the end of the year, DESPITE Brexit, 2022 expected to see a smaller, but still sustained growth as the Political and ideological BS of Brexit eases and the more pragmatic business of trade takes over.
The biggest recession in 300 years happened this year, unless like most recessions before, we actually borrowed/spent through it and continue to do so. It's not perfect, far from, would a Labour government do a better job for the 'average man or women' probably, but this recovery won't be like the 70s / 80s, it won't even be like the 2010s.
This year is going to be a rough ride for a lot of people, mostly because of changing markets and tastes as much as economic doom but "biggest recession this country has ever seen" it won't be.
I’m far more likely to make an impulse purchase on my high street if I can just tap my watch to pay for it.
I'd wager if you're the type of person to spend £400 on a watch that will be obsolete in 24 months, you're the type of person who enjoys an impulse purchase and is lucky enough to have the disposable income to go with it 😉
I was of the generation where, on your way out of a evening (Remember when you could go out....) you would stop at the cash machine on your way into town, withdraw what you needed/decided to spend/could afford to spend for that night, then went to the pub/clubs.
At some point in the night, you'd go for the next round of drinks, discover you had run out of money, and then think oh well, and stay until you had enough of being there.... and go.
Then you'd wake up in the morning, and find about £24 in coins in your pocket 😉
Then clubs started taking cards... that messed you over, as you'd then keep drinking past when you should/could really afford....
good times 🙂
whilst I suspect recreational drug use is down at the moment
thank you for the biggest lol of the thread so far
oh those covid conspirators, going on about vacines with microchips in.
Bill gates of all people :0)
my location, heart rate, spend, social media, tv watch, shopping habits is all tracked already.
by phones, health apps, banks, credit card companies and the 3A's amazon, android, apple
wouldnt surprise me if these companies started taking out the banks in the next decade to gain more and more Data > information > knowledge
KPMG and PWC both forecasting a 5%-7% rise in GDP in 2021 taking us back to pre-covid economic levels by the end of the year, DESPITE Brexit
They can predict whatever they like...
I doubt many people in the real world are basing life choices on predictions from KPMG
There's going to be mass unemployment when furlough ends - a lot of people are already unemployed, they just don't know it yet - and that's going to kiss goodbye to any 'cashless society' nonsense.
The post furlough economy is going to be one Sam Allardyce would (allegedly) easily recognise 😉
if we have an extra large order of wine, he uses a sack barrow to wheel it down the driveway.
A 5-7% raise in GDP from what... last year when half the country was shut for half the year?
wouldn't be hard....
To pre-covid levels that had been massively surpressed by the economic crash a decade a go, and then when starting to get back to normal, hit by the brexit depression....
Admittedly, Ive not gone and found the actual reading on it, but in that context.... not exactly on the edge of my seat for things to get suddenly better for the common man(person)
Reflected in increased costs for nearly everything due to importing even if its only raw materials being harder more costly....
There’s going to be mass unemployment when furlough ends – a lot of people are already unemployed, they just don’t know it yet – and that’s going to kiss goodbye to any ‘cashless society’ nonsense.
The post furlough economy is going to be one Sam Allardyce would (allegedly) easily recognise 😉
In my very small village community, of the three or four people I know who were made redundant in the first lock down, two are now self employed and predominantly paid in cash by local land owners. There is going to be alot more of this......
I wouldn't be at all surprised if there will be an economic boom, but who will be making the money? It won't be the thousands of little guys who were made redundant. Opportunities will be there (and are there now, if you know a Tory mp), but it'll be the ones financially unaffected by the pandemic that will benefit.
Ive noticed quite a few local takeaways / chip shops have gone to cash only now.
Yep - it's amazing how often our local Chinese takeaways card machine is 'out of order'! 🙂
t
whilst I suspect recreational drug use is down at the moment
thank you for the biggest lol of the thread so far
You reckon?
I'd be suprised if weed was down, but coke and pills?
I can only talk about my slightly extended work and friend group, but of those that dabble they only do wo when they're out, not likely to have a line at home.
Yep, as above, all 3 different local chip shops I’ve used since Covid have been cash only (I think one has ALWAYS been cash only but can’t 100% remember). Indian/Chinese etc you can pay online via Just Eat or whatever, wouldn’t surprise me if you turned up to order though they’d be cash only or card machine “broken”!
Just worked out that if I could convince people to use our PO cash withdrawal service to pay for goods rather than contactless, my shop would increase its GAT by 5%.
Regards chip shops the local one I use has only just got a card machine for the opposite reason, people weren't using them as they were cash only - worries of Covid and nearest cash machine a 100yrd walk away next to the competition (who already have a card machine)
I'm definitely spending it less- even in shops. But I'm getting it more, since I've been selling off a lot of stuff and that's still probably 95% cash. I think once "paying money to another person" becomes decashified that'll be the second last big hurdle, with "paying for stuff you don't want the government to know about" the last and biggest of all.
barclays app lets you just take a photo of a cheque to pay in now.
I hoped hsbc would do too, but not via their mobile app at least.
barclays app lets you just take a photo of a cheque to pay in now.
I hoped hsbc would do too, but not via their mobile app at least
Take the cheque and paying in slip to the post office, they will post it to the bank for free. Alternatively phone your bank and ask for the direct send envelopes for cheques and post it to them (you'll need a stamp though)
Cash is actually a pain for some retailers.
I just bought a van today for my lad, negotiated a "cash" deal and got over a grand off lol but then the guy wanted bank transfer as it costs him to deposit cash.
He pays his taxes so cash is a bloody pest as far as he is concerned.
the cost of card payments is small, and probably could be less for some people taking them on here. A quick google found
https://www.cardswitcher.co.uk/cheapest-merchant-services-for-small-businesses/
a max of 1.25% of the transaction cost for first data, card readers available for £20..
I remember about a decade ago a mine went to Japan on business whilst working for NCR (the cash machine people) and he noted that they didn't use cash for anything. They didn't even use cards much. Almost everything was paid for by phone.
That was the first time I started paying attention to the idea of "electronic wallets" etc.
Cash is definitely dying in the UK, but it will be a slow death.
(And slower in the US where they don't trust contactless cards, or even chip and pin!)
Interesting that in the UK, lower use of cash is seen as socially exclusive because not everybody has a bank account. In Sweden, the cashless society is actively promoted. It shows how far behind the UK is in terms of social equity.
@brads in this context (and most others unless you are actually buying off someone dodgy) “cash” just means “not credit/finance”. I think you just paid the regular price tbh, sorry 😀
the cost of card payments is small, and probably could be less for some people taking them on here. A quick google found
Any card machine will always cost my buisness more than cash. Like I said earlier when you deal with 20% margins, a 1.25% fee is a big hit.
Imagine if every transaction, large and small, in every shop, buy every vendor was by card with a 1.25% fee that's millions/billions a year going to the banks in fees....
Really interesting to read a lot of the replies, from all perspectives. There's definitely differing opinions depending on where you live etc. Keep them coming!
Personally I used to use cash as much as possible, helped with budgeting as well as doing my part to stay in a job! This last year though I've gone full Google Pay/contactless wherever I can, the advent of apps that track what you spend and where plus banking apps has made it so easy to track your spending. I know that cash circulation was down over 60% during the first lockdown, understandable as shop were mostly shut but even supermarkets, where most cash passes through, were noticing a big drop in how much was being used in certain areas. Deprived/poor areas had less of a drop but big towns and cities were having a marked decline almost overnight. From what my former colleagues say it hasn't picked back up much over the summer and it's now taking a hammering with this new set of restrictions. How it pans out over the next year or so is anyone's guess.
I’d be surprised if weed was down, but coke and pills?
I can only talk about my slightly extended work and friend group, but of those that dabble they only do wo when they’re out, not likely to have a line at home.
Local druggies are busy round me, especially whoever sells the silver canisters. Got a massive box of them to weigh in when I next go to the recyclers. They pay me direct onto my card BTW, cash for scrap is illegal now.
Joking aside, this is a rather large part of the black economy and whilst I suspect recreational drug use is down at the moment I suspect it’ll rocket again post-Covid. Be interesting to see how such deals are done if we do approach cash-less.
I've got a 'friend' who buys their weed with bitcoin and it arrives special delivery the next day.
The black market is far more adaptable than the legit.
They can predict whatever they like…
You'll forgive me if I trust the opinions of the big four Accounting Organisations over an anonymous bloke on the Internet who, the only thing I know about is, likes a Greggs. 😉
Indeed so.
Not quite so hamstrung by pesky regulation, in some senses.
I did hear that bitcoin was less anonymous than the more recent competition. Your friend might want to research, if he/she/it hasn't already done so.
He's quite partial to monty python too, I hear.
All banks and the newer "services" charge commission on each transaction. Just Eat is basically Paypal for takeaways. A lot of effort to set up a payment system and get it right so small takeaways might as well just sign up to someone that's done the work.
That reminds me - I paid for our last take-away curry with cash, maybe a month or six weeks ago. They are now on Just Eat, don't know about the Chinese take-away over the road as my wife doesn't like chinese so it's only when she's away that I get to use it!
Most tradesmen round here have their bank details on their cards so it's just a bank transfer to pay them. I get paid the same way by my customers - current job does pay by cheque though.
For me, moving to a (near) cashless lifestyle has just "happened". I haven't expressly sought it out but equally I haven't resisted it. Pre-Covid I'd take cash, £20 note or so, just in case I had a serious mechanical and needed a taxi home and they didn't take cards - I had debit card with me as well.
I may be being a little slow but how does being unemployed relate to the need for cash?
Cash in hand work and 'off the books' employment, yes it still goes on.
A 5-7% raise in GDP from what… last year when half the country was shut for half the year?
wouldn’t be hard….
To pre-covid levels that had been massively surpressed by the economic crash a decade a go, and then when starting to get back to normal, hit by the brexit depression….Admittedly, Ive not gone and found the actual reading on it, but in that context…. not exactly on the edge of my seat for things to get suddenly better for the common man(person)
Hey, Binners used "recession" I wasn't going to debate the difference between Recession and Economic Crisis.
GDP fell 11% through 2020, some of that will be 'deferred' because of COVID, some will be lost. Looking at the Motor industry, they were 30% down on Volume in 2020, some of that will be fleet purchases that will happen in 2021 now, some will be people holding off until they feel a little safer financially, some of those purchases won't happen now.
There's no 'rule book' on economic recovery when an economy have be purposely shut down, as it's never happened before, but the BOE et al, expects a faster rebound than you might expect from say, a Credit Crunch.
As for employment, there's do doubt it's been a shit time, but as the rules and value of the furlough scheme has changed the 'zombie jobs' (not a term I like, but it's the one I've read) are dying away. There's not point businesses paying even 20% of a salary to keep someone on who won't have work to do and there are jobs out there, I know 5-6 people who've taken a new job this year.
Of course, I could be wrong, I often am, the BOE could be wrong, KPMG could be wrong etc etc etc. I guess 12 months from now we can look back on this thread and decide who was most right, or least wrong.