It's going to be a [s]competitor[/s] customer.
Basically, are we prepared to risk hobbling an entire generation for a random punt in the dark hoping that things don't get worse than they are now?
Apparently we are.
Only if you lie down and take it. I'm planning on fighting and resisting every step of the way. Whatever the outcome at least I can feel I followed my morals and acted in what I believe is best for my country. Taking back control if you will 😉
I suppose Teresa May could be the fall guy (what's the female equivalent of a 'guy'?) and when she becomes PM she just says 'nope' to Brexit. She'd be unpopular with the right wing of tory party and the Farages of this world, and she'd be called undemocratic (as if that's the worst insult that can be levelled at an individual) but she'd be doing the right thing for the country. Here's hoping.
I realise this is fantastically unlikely given her previous statements on Brexit. Eurgh.
are we prepared to risk hobbling an entire generation for a random punt in the dark
... based on a variety of emotional responses, in most cases...
I'm planning on fighting and resisting every step of the way
If you've got any ideas, beyond writing to my MP, I'm in.
.. based on a variety of emotional responses, in most cases...
You shouldn't talk about remainers like that, they are grieving.
I think that Theresa May has a good chance of becoming an immensely popular PM.
"I suppose Teresa May could be the fall guy (what's the female equivalent of a 'guy'?) and when she becomes PM she just says 'nope' to Brexit. She'd be unpopular with the right wing of tory party and the Farages of this world, and she'd be called undemocratic (as if that's the worst insult that can be levelled at an individual) but she'd be doing the right thing for the country. Here's hoping."
This. Civil servants are going to be explaining to her the detailed consequences of 'leaving the EU' (whatever that means exactly) and the consequences of not doing as the referendum requested.
She's going to pick the lesser, and least politically damaging of those two evils.
If "leaving the EU" is likely to wreck the economy, she just won't do it. She'd never get re-elected, ignoring the referendum would be far less damaging.
Its interesting that the Brexiters seem to be lining up their reasons why we won't actually leave, see last Friday's FT and even some of the more rabid FB groups when they can string a sentence together i.e. the gov't who campaigned to remain hadn't negotiated the exit prior to the referendum just in case.
She might win over just enough leavers by explaining how much of a balls up it would be and how unprepared we are to retain support and maintain her career.
Its interesting that the Brexiters seem to be lining up their reasons why we won't actually leave
It's possible options, nothing certain about it...
Well I guess all these years we've been banging on in Europe for reform away from the ever closer union model and more towards a union based solely on trade without any success. I guess this is the ultimate ultimatum and might just trigger something a bit more drastic even if it doesn't end up with full Brexit. Is there actually such a thing as full on Brexit? We've become so intertwined with Europe over the past 40 years and work so closely with them on so many fundamental fronts it is an impossible task to unpick all that in just the 2 years of the A50 rules - especially at the glacial pace the EU usually works at. It's like trying to separate Siamese twins that share the same vital organs. For me as long as we get the freedom to go out into the big wide world and negotiate our own trade deals with the rest of the world and openly trade with the rest of the world and still retain access to the EU free market - even if we give up the immigration thing (no issues with that anyway) then we'll be in a much better place.
Brexit means Brexit
May 11 July 2016
5thElefant - Member
It's going to be a [s]competitor[/s] customer.
Maybe so, but still a competitor, and there's plenty good reasons not to help a competitor.
I guess this is the ultimate ultimatum and might just trigger something a bit more drastic even if it doesn't end up with full Brexit.
Well one drinking buddy told me that he wanted to remain in the EU but thought it needed a bit of a shake up so he voted leave so we could give them a fright.
It would be a farcical position if it wasn't apparent that Boris was thinking exactly the same thing.
May 11 July 2016
We might need to rethink the system for dating quotes while we are at it. 😀
Well one drinking buddy told me that he wanted to remain in the EU but thought it needed a bit of a shake up so he voted leave so we could give them a fright.
Seems quite a common reason for voting to exit. Perhaps these people will think more carefully next time they vote.
Oh he doesn't regret it. He's pretty convinced it's all going to plan and they'll ask us to stay.
Personally I reckon it is more likely they'll shake up a bit after we leave and we'll be outside in the snow with our nose against the window.
Is this the new general Brexit discussion thread?
For those natural Labour supporters (or any other Labour voters, or those who would never ever vote Tory) on here who voted Remain, a question. Would you prefer to stay in the EU and have a Tory government elected in 2020, or leave the EU and have a Labour government in 2020?
Because I was thinking about all the electoral permutations for May and came up with some whacky ideas...
Tory and remain in the EU, elections come every five years - EU membership doesn't.
meanwhile, ukip go ghostly quiet as the 2 main parties drift from shambles to shambles...
Probably planning their own "March on Rome".
I think that Theresa May has a good chance of becoming an immensely popular PM.
Yeah, so long as you're straight, of sound health and don't give a damn about anyone else I guess she could be.
For those natural Labour supporters (or any other Labour voters, or those who would never ever vote Tory) on here who voted Remain, a question. Would you prefer to stay in the EU and have a Tory government elected in 2020, or leave the EU and have a Labour government in 2020?
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[/img]I was trying to find an example with pictures but here goes...
Would you like to have a [b]Permanent[/b] or [b]Temporary[/b] tattoo of a cock and balls on your forehead?
Nothing is permanent in this wicked world not even our TROUBLES.
"Whenever Gordon Brown chooses to call a general election, we will be ready for him.[b]"He has no democratic mandate. He has a reputation tainted by his failures after a decade in office.[/b] And he has no new ideas.
"An early election? Bring it on."
Theresa May October 2007 😆
Fwiw I don't think an election is a good idea until the opposition has got itself sorted and I really don't think the markets need any more uncertainty, my jobs precarious enough, thanks
I think that Theresa May has a good chance of becoming an immensely popular PM.
Competent though she may be, she has an impossible task ahead of her.
Article 50 is stacked completely against the party invoking it; the minute you kick off you start a fixed 2 year count down at the end of which you have zero active trade deals unless you can get all 27 countries to agree to an extension (which you won't know till it's too late).
No country can re-negotiate 42 trade deals in 2 years, no matter how competent. It's taken the might of the EU negotiators (far more competent and experienced than anyone in the UK civil service) the best part of 40 years to sort them all out. Just look at TTIP, it's taking years to go through the EU (as there are so many contentious issues to be resolved).
Then, on top of your entire foreign trading terms being renegotiated, you have:
1. The issues of EU citizens in the UK
2. UK citizens in the EU
3. Scotland wanted independence
4. NI peace process potentially in jeopardy
5. A looming recession
6. A ballooning budget deficit
7. A domestic agenda
It's a truly impossible workload for any Government, no matter what party.
Also, she'll be going into a General Election with a shrinking economy, which is never a good thing...
So, you either fail spectacularly or have to delay (for years) whole chunks of it.
The two years only covers things like:
- disentangling finances (how much we pay in and for how long / how much we have to repay of grants made that extend beyond the end of the two year period)
- EU nationals here / UK citizens in the EU
- WTO status and quota shares (the EU as a whole has a distinct legal membership of the World Trade Organisation and certain agreements on tariff rates and import quotas, for us to assume an individual state position again we will need to negotiate what we take with us in terms of quotas and tariff rates and farming - in particular - subsidies.
To be honest it's this last that really worries me. Can we possibly work this out in two years? After that we get to start negotiating trade deals....
That and part of her party still include the delusional bonkers euro skeptics who would be happy to see the whole thing burn, just to watch it burn...
and a tiny majority in the House of Commons...
After that we get to start negotiating trade deals....
Nope, we need to start that now as once the 2 years is up we will no longer be covered by EU deals so just fall back to WTO tariffs (which would be a serious disadvantage and deepen the recession even further). No multi-national would invest in a country with WTO tariffs when they can just invest inside the EU....
Footflaps, not sure if we can do anything more than the basic phone calls till we are out, anyway as the timelines are about 10years it won't make much difference plus side is time to retrain as a trade delegation.
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Jamba will be along shortly to tell us that it is all going to be fine a little short term pain but then gravy for the rest of our lives and our children's lives etc etc
He hasn't got a clue how to do this though nor do the people who led the out campaign.
Theresa's plan -
New cabinet and a commitment to the people it's Brexit - invokes article 50
Summer 2017 - calls election and wins
Summer 2019 - exit complete and EU trade deal signed that allows free movement
Summer 2020 - massive welfare cuts to balance books and allow investment in infrastructure and education
Summer 2021 - general election Tories narrow win, UKIP 30 seats Labour 150 seats
Summer 2022 - more poor more youth unemployment the city is richer and the middle class is slightly better off - same shit different year
Its illegal to start negotiating trade deals while we are still a member of the EU so that won't start till post the 2 years.
what other plan do you think may work? It's clear non of the Brexiters had one. Cameron didn't, Corban sure as hell doesn't.
footflaps - Member
After that we get to start negotiating trade deals....
Nope, we need to start that now as once the 2 years is up we will no longer be covered by EU deals so just fall back to WTO tariffs (which would be a serious disadvantage and deepen the recession even further). No multi-national would invest in a country with WTO tariffs when they can just invest inside the EU....
You might want to but we can't until we are out. But you are quite right it is a serious disadvantage, it would put us at financial risk and it will discourage investment. #takebackcontrol
[quote=ferrals ]Its illegal to start negotiating trade deals while we are still a member of the EU so that won't start till post the 2 years.
Source please
Kenneth Clark on radio 4 jut said he expects Theresa may to activate Article 50 'within a week or two' 😯
Reality Check: Does Britain have to leave the EU before it makes a trade deal? - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36684876
http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A12008E207
The reading is we certainly can't sign one and we really shouldn't be in formal negotiations on any. No eu members are able to negotiate trade deals on their own and we would still be a member until the end of article 50 negotiations. Practically as our massive team of skilled negotiators and lawyers will have article 50 to deal with the chance of making more appear to do trade are slim.
You could argue it either way. TBH though, if Article 50 is triggered, or about to be triggered, I imagine the UK government would be less bothered about the consequences of starting negotiations with other states. My reading of it is that it might be illegal to conclude a trade deal while we're still members, but as most of them will take years to work through anyhow, it would be madness not to start work on them ASAP.
Kenneth Clark on radio 4 jut said he expects Theresa may to activate Article 50 'within a week or two'
I'm starting to come round to the painful conclusion that there's no rowing back from this one. Our political relationship with other EU states is fatally wounded, the EU itself is fundamentally weakened by our exit, and the paralysis caused by prevaricating over Article 50 just compounds the damage.
Probably can't sign a deal until exit, the problem is Europe will not start a trade deal negotiation until brexit is complete- people are confusing the Brexit negotiations with Trade deal negotiations. This is the fundamental problem with this whole situation the vast majority of exit voters had no grasp of the finer detail and associated timelines, we are going to end up backed into a corner with the Rest of the World holding all the cards.
, it would be madness not to start work on them ASAP.
Best get some new light bulbs and espresso machines in Whitehall then, and some of that midnight oil...
@Junkyard, seems other people have provided sources.
@Martinhutch, I wondered that as well, its illegal in EU law, but if we are about to leave maybe we just push on.
I'm now of the semi-pragmatic feeling that we just need to get on with it and make the best of a bad situation. I think increasing uncertainty of sitting on the fence for years would be a disaster for investment in the country and if we ended up sliding back into the EU by default our cards would be marked and we'd have less influence in that sphere as well. We need clarity asap
martinhutch - MemberI'm starting to come round to the painful conclusion that there's no rowing back from this one. Our political relationship with other EU states is fatally wounded, the EU itself is fundamentally weakened by our exit, and the paralysis caused by prevaricating over Article 50 just compounds the damage.
sneaky edit while i was typing (or i didnt read the end of your post 😆 ) - my feelings exactly
It is at this point we see whether the desire for revenge and 'example-making' among member states outweighs the need for their businesses to trade relatively freely with us.
The big point of the Leave campaign was that they need us as much as we need them, but I'm not sure that the needs of European businesses will play all that well in the rule-fixated heart of Brussels. Perhaps EU states see opportunities of their own, to suck the heart of our financial industry into Frankfurt by denying us access to passporting.
@martinhutch it's at this point that people need to get that looking out for yourself isn't petty or vindictive etc. It's about doing what's best for the EU. Promoting the benefits of being inside (such as passporting) is something they should be doing with the benefits of members being shared by the members.
I agree totally. Trade outside the EU does offer significant benefits to its members, though. The problem is that their politician class is no better than ours when it comes to settling scores, even at the expense of jobs within the EU.