[Closed] Cameron kicks EU in the nuts - right decision?

cant beat the hubris of politicians THM.

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recommended reading.

[i]So you would have merrily* signed up to the deal on offer ?[/i]

there was nothing to sign, how long do you think the legals would take on a reworking of the EU treaty ? bit longer than 10 hours.

THM - how do you think the end game will play out ?

you know your PM is a buffoon when Boris is cheering him on.

So you'd agree to unelected EU commissioners vetting (and potentially rejecting) UK budgets/legislation ahead of our own elected parliament ?

It is quite extraordinary that so many able people can continue to misunderstand and misdiagnose the current crisis.

Yup, but they assure us that they now have a complete understanding of what went wrong and what is required to rectify the situation.

.

dannyh - Member

Then hey, we are, in real terms only marginally less crap than we used to be, but in relative terms we are better off.

😀 I like that. For some reason it reminded me of this letter in the Guardian last week :

[i][b] I note that the chancellor says that every household will "save £144 on petrol costs this year". This is good news indeed, but surely he has missed a trick. Since this "saving" is a result of announcing and then cancelling a 3p per litre price rise on petrol, why didn't he announce a £1 per litre rise, say, and cancel it? Then every household could "save" £4,800 this year. [/b][/i]
Karl Sabbagh

allthepies - Member
THM - how do you think the end game will play out ?

I have no idea, but its nice to speculate. I guess three scenarios:

1. Euro crisis before end 1Q12 (25% chance): including sov defaults (Greece, Italy...?), banking failures/nationalisation, deep social unrest, deep and extended recession
2. Europe muddles thru (65% chance), sustained period of very low/negative growth, social unrest, democratic pressure for orderly restructuring of € zone, introduction of different currency blocs (2 or none at all) - within this 70% chance this is disorderly, 30% orderly
3. Europe recovers and prospers in current form (10% chance)

The big unknown is the social impact in all this. There is an almost irreconcilable gulf between the politics and the economics of the € zone with the politicians lacking the insight/foresight and ability to credibly get ahead of the financial markets and the rapidly deteriorating economies (look what is happening this week in Greece and Italy). The losers are the public and the big question is at what point do they crack and demand change. The potential for revolt among the European middle classes will be a key factor. Tensions will continue to grow between national and pooled sovereignty (with the latter being the ultimate loser)

There will be an over-reaction to the excesses of the past 10-15 years - the main losers in the Uk will be the public sector and financial services being the main losers - aggressive cuts (deficit reduction) and over-regulation and state interference (banker bashing). The financial system will continue to malfunction weighed down by over-regulation, the toxic legacy of asset quality, and inability to grow out of the crisis. Credit starvation will condemn the real economy to a sustained period of low growth. Government participation in economic life will increase in the misguided view that this was simply a failure of capitalism (while emerging economies will continue to adopt capitalism and accelerate further ahead leaving Eur in their wake). The Austrian School (Hayek and friends) will make a come back in the field of economics after lag. Hopefully this will not be accompanied with excess nationalism (but economic nationalism will be inevitable - tariffs, protectionism etc)

Enough for now!!! Look forward to others (much better) ideas!!

p.s. watch what happens to Commerzbank over next 48 hours for more clues. A possible nationalisation of Germany's second biggest bank?

he was always onto a looser, im glad he vetoed it , we wait now to see if its the correct thing to do all they politicians will do is argue at pm question time , and we will not be any further forward anyways, oh and i suppose now we will never , ever win the eurovision song contest. 🙂

while emerging economies will continue to adopt capitalism and accelerate further ahead leaving Eur in their wake

What do you mean "adopt" ? And the emerging economies couldn't be more varied.

In fact I don't how many of them subscribe to your vision of capitalism.

Although it's debatable what you class as an "emerging economy" it should be included in the list below. A fair few of those aren't neoliberal free-market economies of the same mould as the UK and the EU.

Some in fact, including the one with the fastest growth in the world after China, are positively "tax and spend" economies.

Argentina
Bahrain
Bangladesh
Brazil
Bulgaria
Chile
China
Colombia
Czech Republic
Egypt
Estonia
Hong Kong
Hungary
India
Indonesia
Iran
Jordan
Kuwait
Latvia
Lithuania
Malaysia
Mauritius
Mexico
Morocco
Nigeria
Oman
****stan
Peru
Philippines
Poland
Qatar .
Romania
Russia
Saudi Arabia
Singapore
Slovakia
South Africa
Sri Lanka
South Korea
Taiwan
Thailand
Turkey
UAE
Vietnam

interesting post THM (as ever. bro-cuddle? 😉 )

toxic legacy of asset quality

Domestically I think this is key. No bank wants to lift any heavy weights for fear of shittin' their pants.

Ive seen some ugly loan books that are a long way from being marked to market.

Id love to see some leaks of the terms of a transaction tax that was being proposed and then the analysis on how far it would reach and to which trades. And of course, how quickly trades could be navigated outside of it's purview.

It is quite extraordinary that so many able people can continue to misunderstand and misdiagnose the current crisis.

You're referring to the euro politicians? I suspect quite a few (if not all) of them understand it a lot better than you'd think from the "solutions" they're coming out with. It's all a game of brinksmanship though - who will blink first, as exemplified by all the commentary that the UK doesn't want the Euro to fail so should do our bit (ignoring that others have far more to lose, so won't let it fail whatever we do). That and a bit of putting off the dirty work in the hope that it will either magically solve itself or become somebody else's problem. I do wonder how (and for how long) Angela thinks Germany will get away without doing what they're going to have to do eventually.

What strange times we live in when I agree with everything ernie is saying (apologies if that conflicts with some of my earlier statements or what you might think my position is - in my defence binners started it).

Ernie. Very good point and sloppy (quick) writing on my part. There is no such thing as emerging economies and indeed the whole terminology is out of date. I threw that point in slightly haphazardly merely to spike some debate 😉

EM is similar to capitalism - prone to misuse!!

aracer. I really hope that you are correct and I am wrong! My concern is simply to look at the misunderstanding or outright lying about fiscal positions as one example. This is the fourth or fifth summit to save Europe and yet again the real issues are not being addressed.

Prior to today we had a euro crisis. Now we still have a euro crisis AND a political crisis in the EU. Very depressing.

I like the game of chicken idea. Is this an example of neither driver jumping?!?

There is no such thing as emerging economies and indeed the whole terminology is out of date.

Not according to the FTSE.

Apparently there are not only "emerging" economies but "Advanced Emerging", "Secondary Emerging" and "Frontier" economies.

All very complicated for a simple soul like me.

Ernie. Sorry it's not you being simple, it's me being sloppy. Of course the terminology exists but it is wrong to think of EM as a homogenous group. Plus as the founder of the BRICs concept point out it is extremely patronising to call many of the as emerging. Rather they should be called (high) growth economies.

Does look a bit like a game of Chicken, but "neither driver" suggests only 2 cars. Maybe a bit more accurate Chicken would be our Dave standing in the way of a roller coaster at Alton Towers with 26 cars heading his way.

it is wrong to think of EM as a homogenous group.

Ah, right, fair do's.

I [i]am[/i] a simple soul though - honest. Just a simple member of the toiling classes who asks for nothing more than the opportunity to earn an honest crust.

Simple, poor, but happy 8)

In the interests of Euro solidarity - bon nuit, schlaffen sie gut (if that is correct?)

I go to bed with the FT headlining "Near-term risk to peripheral states remains - new treaty is probably not enough to get through to Christmas". Perhaps 25% was too optimistic?? Let's hope not.

Newnight tonight - the line of the day. Stephanie Flanders hoping to talk about big bazookas!!

My concern is simply to look at the misunderstanding or outright lying about fiscal positions as one example.

Joke (or is it?): How do you know when a politician is lying?

Prior to today we had a euro crisis. Now we still have a euro crisis AND a political crisis in the EU.

Arguably an engineered political crisis to divert attention from the economic one. Not that I was cynical enough to come up with that idea myself, but I've seen it suggested a few times.

Chicken would be our Dave standing in the way of a roller coaster at Alton Towers with 26 cars heading his way.

Kind of - more like dodgems with 26 cars headed his way from all different directions, and he's already jumped...

Joke (or is it?): How do you know when a politician is lying?

Joke (or is it?) 😉

Kind of - more like dodgems with 26 cars headed his way from all different directions, and he's already jumped...

Euro ...

Never!

Kind of - more like dodgems with 26 cars headed his way from all different directions, and he's already jumped...

It's like dodgems, but where all the punters have borrowed the 50p off the guy in the middle, and no-one has paid the electricity bill. It's dark and the candy floss tastes good, and the music is loud, but everyone knows that sooner or later everything will grind to a halt.

And now they've been playing it so long that they don't know any other game, and the smaller children are desperate for the toilet but their parents won't let them get off for fear they will get run over by the other drivers, so they carry on driving round, with small damp patches, but in the darkness no-one can tell.

And a couple of the parents are really mouthy now and a bit drunk, and really quite annoying, and to be honest going round in circles is starting to get quite tiresome, and it would be great to get off but who wants to be first to do that, and have to go home alone?

There are so many other other people at the fair, just wandering about having a good time, eating hot dogs, going on the merry-go-round; out there; beyond the edge of the dodgems.

And there's the smell of hot sweet mulled wine and somewhere, the faint pungent odour of a kebab van.

It was amusing to see Cameron getting completely ignored by everyone, 'i'll just sit back down again and get my phone out so people think i'm doing something terribly important, this isn't awkward at all, yes i'll send a text' ... 2 my tory masterz. Dun wot u told me 2. The french hobbit hates us even more now. LOL. Dave x

"Schlaf gut et bonne nuit".

We've been treated to repeated clips of Cameron pushing past Sarkozy and stomping around the table as Sarkozy goes around cheerily shaking delegates hands. No comment, just the clip.

There's been no hatred on French media, only disappointment..

DC's body language said it all...

and france and germany have played a cracker, and are simply pointing the blame elsewhere - 'oh those horrible islanders for not joining in and doing what we tell them', whilst really they are the ones that:

-pushed the hardest for the euro
-benefited the most from the good times
-didn't short out the massive difficulties of the varying southern/northern economies
-then didn't police it properly

so now we'll have - lomg time low rates, low spending (investment), meaning long debt repayment and increased inflation because thats what banks really want for debt repayment

Nasty reflexes are at work...We have been there before.

[i]The Daily Mailograph[/i] really is the gift that keeps on giving.

This is well worth a read:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/bagehot/2011/12/britain-and-eu-1?fsrc=rss

Yeah, result Dave...........fragmentation with greater and greater chances of each country seeking its own national 'solution'- growth of trade barriers - growth of ultra-nationalism - growth of trade wars - ramping up the jingoist rhetoric - taking sides..........all part of the lining up for WW3. We've been here before when the last big capitalist crisis propelled us to this. Last time it took 2 WWs and how many million dead? Next time?

And I have to say, much though I detest Sarko for what he does to French workers and immigrants, he was right in this - deregulation WAS one of the primary causes (or at least, triggers) for this recession, which ain't over yet, and has suddenly got a whole lot more problematic worldwide with Cameron's antics.

Little englanders, don't you love em?

CaptJon - Member
This is well worth a read:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/bagehot/2011/12/britain-and-eu-1?fsrc=rss

Lines up quite nicely with this one...

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/pm-really-asked-brussels-212157671.html

... and puts a different spin on the whole thing.

Lines up quite nicely with this one...

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/pm-really-asked-brussels-212157671.html

From that link :

So although the Prime Minister told Adam Boulton earlier that the decision would have involved an erosion of UK sovereignty , the reality is that the erosion happened (in legal terms at least) some time ago.

Sounds as if David Cameron himself, didn't know what he was opposing in Brussels. Either that, or he was deliberately misleading the British people. Whichever it was, it doesn't look good.

There was no need for Cameron to veto at all. He had many other options. We are diminished by this with virtually no influence left in Europe. Stupid, shortsighted and damaging. All because he is beholden to the eurosceptics

Clegg appears belatedly to have found some spine - I suspect because senior lib dems have given him a kicking. Too little too late. However If Milliband can play a blinder he might / should be able to force a vote that will split the coalition.

sources close to Clegg made clear that the deputy prime minister believed the PM had been guilty of serious negotiating failures that risked damaging the national interest, British jobs and economic growth.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/dec/10/nick-clegg-david-cameron-europe-veto

Even the business leaders appear to realise how stupid this is

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/dec/10/business-reaction-cameron-eu-veto?intcmp=239

However If Milliband can play a blinder

😆

Thanks you've been a great audience, I'm here all week! Try the fish etc etc

I was surprised or not ! that Clegg did not go together with Cameron
Just shows there is the Shoe and the Shoehorn
Think now it"l be the end for the coalition soon and the end for knob head Clegg.

However If Milliband can play a blinder he might / should be able to force a vote that will split the coalition.

I know how desperate you are to see the "coalition" unravel TJ, but that is very unlikely to happen.

The last thing the Tories want right now is a general election, and for the LibDems it's the nightmare scenario - they're hanging on for dear life because falling off would represent a disaster of historic magnitude.

Putting to one side the very occasional blips which show Labour and Tories neck and neck, the BBC poll of polls still shows Labour consistently ahead of the Tories :

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8280050.stm

If they was a general election now Labour would very likely be the party with the most seats, and the Tories would undoubtedly do worse than they did on May 2010. So not a good idea for them.

In the case of the LibDems they would without a doubt get slaughtered, so they are definitely not going to want the break-up of the "coalition". Their best hope is to abandon any remaining principles which they might still have left and hope that by some bizarre miracle the economy improves dramatically, vindicating their betrayal to their voters.

Which of course isn't going to happen, so they might as well enjoy their ministerial cars and enhanced salaries for the next few years.

The so-called coalition is almost certainly here for the duration - so get used to it. In the meantime if you're not happy with it then agitated against it, and force the coalition to add to the growing list of U-turns it has been obliged to carry out.

The last thing the Tories want right now is a general election, and for the LibDems it's the nightmare scenario

Apart from that, don't we know have fixed term parliaments anyway - or did they leave in some mechanism to call a general election if nobody is able to get a anything through the house due to deadlock (in which case the fixed term legislation would appear to be worthless)?

In the case of the LibDems they would without a doubt get slaughtered, so they are definitely not going to want the break-up of the "coalition". Their best hope is to abandon any remaining principles which they might still have left and hope that by some bizarre miracle the economy improves dramatically, vindicating their betrayal to their voters.

Even if the miracle doesn't happen, they're unlikely to do worse if they wait, and might well do a little better if they manage to pull off some small victories in their negotiations with the Tories (actually that's even less likely than the economy improving!)

I do hope you are wrong Ernie but I fear yo may be right. There is such a divergent and irreconcilable set of differences on Europe in the coalition that a good political operator should be able to split them - but does labour have anyone good enough?

IMO the lib dems best hope of avoiding electoral disaster is to ditch Clegg, collapse the coalition and fight on an anti tory platform - " we tried our best to make it work for the good of the UK but can no longer"

The PM is clearly being run by the Eurosceptics

From Ashdown

In order to "protect the City" we have made it more vulnerable. At a time of economic crisis, we have made it more attractive for investors to go to northern Europe. We have tipped 38 years of British foreign policy down the drain in one night. We have handed the referendum agenda over to the Eurosceptics. We have strengthened the arguments of those who would break the union. We have isolated ourselves from Europe and diminished ourselves in Washington.

How can that be reconciled with the triumphalism from the eurosceptics?

The Mayor of London said: "David Cameron has done the only thing that it was really open to him to do. He has played a blinder. "

Tory MP Robert Halfon hailed him for showing his "bulldog spirit".

Bill Cash, the chairman of the Commons European Scrutiny Committee, said Mr Cameron had put the UK on to a "path towards renegotiating in a fundamental way the whole of our treaty relationship with the EU".

Alternatively, you could question how you reconcile the pessimism of a Europhile with the sensible comments being made by others...

Doesn't really matter which side you are on - I just don't see how the positions can be reconciled. The eurosceptics are bonkers as well - they would force Cameron out if they thought he had betrayed them - thats why he is running scared of them

Do we have fixed term legislation? I think if a vote of no confidence goes thru the government falls and if no one else can attract a majority then new elections are needed

TJ - I think you are right about positions that cannot be reconciled but wrong on the implications. We are talking about politicians after all -what do they crave above all else? Power. Everything else is sacrificed to that altar. The Lib Dems have something that they could not under normal circumstances imagine possible - influence in government and positions of responsibility. This is the Christmas period, but they are not Turkeys!!

That Economist article is interesting and as the news trickles out about what REALLY happened behind closed doors it will be fascinating to watch the skullduggery and blatant machiavellian behaviour of most of the players involved. How apt that Von Rumpey Pumpy went for the cop out option.

But as I said earlier the sad thing in all of this, given the gravity of the situation, is the fact that these officials are still focusing all their resources on the symptoms of the crisis not the causes. Hence my persuasion remains that we are being sidelined, yes, but sidelined to watch the forthcoming train crash which could well be very ugly indeed. The proposals on addressing fiscal deficits is a fudge and the bazooka remains unarmed. Maybe my 25% needs to go up to 30% - for the full scale crisis before end 1Q12??? Of course, we will be affected badly by this but collateral damage will be less than full scale impact (except for our banks - RBS don't you just love them?)

It is rich of anyone to blame GB for putting self interests first. What they hell have Merkel and Sarkozy been doing all along. Germany has hoodwinked the rest of Europe with a massive one-way ticket all along. Now they have to pay the bill for this but want to keep their hands firmly in their pockets!!

Teamhurtmore - the point is that Cameron did did not put UK interests first - he simply appeased the Eurosceptics. there was no need to veto at all. Nothing in the plans would have affected the UK adversly - and plenty of other tactics were available anyway.

Germany has hoodwinked no one - everyone else has gone along with the plans willingly.

TJ - no point swapping views on this. Lets just agree to disagree. At the moment, none of us reallt know what happened behind closed doors and I have no doubt that Slippery Sarkozy had GB well in his sights from the off.

I am taking a long term perspective on Germany (not this weekend). They created an amazing system that worked for them at the cost of most of the rest of Europe. Created immediate competitiveness for German corporates at the expense of their European competitors and then exported inappropriate IR policies that created the bubbles throughout the rest of the peripherary. And now, ignoring their own fiscal performance, Merkel is insisting that this is only a crisis of fiscal deficits. With this diagnosis she is commiting the peripherary to the likely forthcoming train crash. No one is a real winner in this though.

No one is a real winner in this though.

Gordon Brown and Bill Cash (insert any Tory Eurosceptic of choice) - a marriage made in.....?????