And what do we gain from our deal with the SADC, which includes South africa and Mozambique?
Quick google gives these figures; "Trade continuity agreements signed cover countries accounting for £89 billion of the UK’s trade. When the SACU+M agreement is signed and takes effect, this will go up to £99 billion."
So £10 billion?
When the total looks like this;
"In 2019, the UK's exports of goods and services totalled £700 billion and imports totalled £724 billion"
I propose when all is said and done the UK economy looks more or less the same with a shift in trade to a more R.O.W focus, and yes I will admit that may lead to more instability.
What I dont see is the closing down sale that many on here would have us believe Bojo and his chums are planning.
Quick google gives these figures; “Trade continuity agreements signed cover countries accounting for £89 billion of the UK’s trade. When the SACU+M agreement is signed and takes effect, this will go up to £99 billion.”
So £10 billion?
That's not an increase of £10bn in trade
What it means is that an extra 10bn is stil covered by the FTA we had with the EU
All this has done is ensured we don't lose out on some of the trade benefits the EU had got for us .
It still leaves us with huge costs to cover, way in excess of membership fee
yes I will admit that may lead to more instability.
When you say instability, you mean closures & job losses
more instability.
When you say instability, you mean me having to spend a few hundred quid (and a couple of days) sorting out Estonian e-residence so I can move my business over there and pay €20k of tax in Estonia rather than the UK next year.
Slow hand clap for doogie, well done. That's "taking back control" for you.
This is handy
Bloomy estimate of what we gain/lose with FTAs & assuming we get an FTA with EU
What's funny is Truss has asked her department to come up with a different USA FTA figure because she says 0.16% doesn't 'feel' right
yes I will admit that may lead to more instability.
Including the end of the UK with a united ireland and an independent scotland? the loos of all the oil revenues to the exchequer, the loss of much of londons financial services to Germany, France and iScotland?
Whats even funnier Kimbers is there will be no FTA with the EU as is becoming more obvious by the day thus the financial hit will be even greater and of course those no EU FTA have not been made yet in most cases.
When you say instability, you mean me having to spend a few hundred quid (and a couple of days) sorting out Estonian e-residence so I can move my business over there and pay €20k of tax in Estonia rather than the UK next year.
Slow hand clap for doogie, well done. That’s “taking back control” for you.
As is your want captain, things like factories and banking networks cannot be moved so easily.
Including the end of the UK with a united ireland and an independent scotland? the loos of all the oil revenues to the exchequer, the loss of much of londons financial services to Germany, France and iScotland?
Hold on I got called out for speculation
Kimbers, your graph suggest to me a GDP shortfall of 0.6%
Thats a hit I dont think I have suggested there wont be a hit from realigning our economy.
Whilst the breakup of the UK is speculation at the moment under the GFA there is a right to have a border poll and in Scotland the SNP are heading for a landslide with a large pro independence majority and polling in both places shows a significant majority for independence.
As for financial services - a lot has already gone and much more will follow after the no deal crash out. iScotland will be in a uniquely advantageous place to attract them as its clear iScotland will just smoothly go back into the EU
Someone reposted the governments leave Brexit contract with the British people that they used during the referendum.
Number 1, EU Trade : Exact same benefits.
The rest are equally balls but somehow the people are getting what they voted for?
so you think a 10 year + recession is a price worth paying? You realise how much Brexit has already cost the UK?
As is your want captain, things like factories and banking networks cannot be moved so easily.
You know all those industries like motorbikes and cycles and ship building and cars and, and, well, Christ, the list is now almost endless.
You know how they all ****** off abroad?
You really are, on biblical scale, deluded. Stunning.
What? Triumph and BMW to where? China?
So it happens to German companies too?
You are saying thats a direct result of Brexit, or Globalisation and and increase in China's high tech manufacturing industry?
so you think a 10 year + recession is a price worth paying? You realise how much Brexit has already cost the UK?
But think of the long-term? Gig-economy and less red-tape for employers could herald unlimited earning potential if prepared to work hard for it. We could be like the USA in what, 15 years? Who would you rather bet your home/money/first-born on? One of this bunch of backwards-looking remainers who still cling to the EU:
Or would you prefer to be yachting around the 51st State of Biglygood?
Triumph already do much of their manufacturing in Thailand.
Financial services are moving - some already done so and many with plans to do so
The UK BMW operation will be run down as will Nisan - because they lose their ability to export into the EU. Nissan have already made it clear
Are you telling me the language used in finance is going to change to French/ German?
It isn't a question of want, doogie, it's a last resort if I want to keep my business running as it does currently. I haven't done the final move as it will cost more money and can be done in days when finally required. But I had to put the framework in place.
so you think a 10 year + recession is a price worth paying? You realise how much Brexit has already cost the UK?
Not so bad? Estimates (2022, IIRC?) say Brexit will have soon recouped the UK more than all its payments to the EU over the past 47 years put together.
*Edit
Sorry. That should have been
Brexit will cost the UK more than all its payments to the EU over the past 47 years put together.
https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-will-cost-uk-more-than-total-payments-to-eu-2020-1?r=US&IR=T
I was momentarily affected by Brevidence to the contrary. Felt good though. I can see the attraction if I just bang head repeatedly at this door-frame some more.
Are you telling me the language used in finance is going to change to French/ German?
People in Paris and Frankfurt can still speak/write in English.
Its the reason the city in the UK is so successful.
Its the reason the city in the UK is so successful.
Oh my god. Funny.
Ok one of
its clear iScotland will just smoothly go back into the EU
It's far from clear. That might be the wish of a lot of people but there are an awful lot of things that have to be put in place before that can happen.
Ok one of
Fairy snuff.
It’s far from clear.
True. A Norway type arrangement might be more likely. Either way, it's going to be a tough 20 years ahead for the Union, given the carrot of increased cooperation with 30+ countries and the stick of being told to stay in your place by one country.
Why do you think it not clear Del?
iScotland would be completely compliant with EU law, it would be a net contributor, it has most of the EUs oil and fishing and the EU would love to do it to stick two fingers up at the rUK - and there has been some back channel discussions which give a good indication that this is how it would go.
I think all eyes are on Northern Ireland... they have a legal right to self determination, no mater what the UK government wants, and that isn't as clear cut for Scotland... and they have the easiest possible route back into the EU via unification. If they take that path, they'll be no stopping Scotland breaking away as well. Sadly (for us south of the border).
More on the success of the City
Alot of its success is based on location, time zone and language. Brexit does not change those things. It creates 1/4 of UK GDP.
It creates 1/4 of UK GDP.
Probably wise to have kept that in mind before voting for Brexit, but hey ho.
Are you telling me the language used in finance is going to change to French/ German?
No
What is going to happen and is already happening is trade in euros of various sorts can only be done under EU regulation and thus the institutions have to move into the EU. They tried just setting up shells in the EU and this was not enough - they have to move the entirety of the euro trading operations because the EU legally require this trade to be under EU law
This is from a year ago. The situation now is much more damaging
City financial firms have so far committed to move at least 7,000 jobs and £1 trillion of assets out of the UK to prepare for Brexit, with the true cost likely to be higher, research has found.
Brexit has also cost firms £4bn as they have moved staff, taken out legal advice and implemented contingency plans, accounting and consultancy firm EY found.
The sum includes £2.6bn to build up a presence in other financial centres such as Frankfurt, Dublin and Paris to ensure smooth operation of services after Brexit.
EY said that the true impact was likely to be greater because just 13 of the 222 firms it monitors have put a figure on the direct financial impact of Brexit.
Many companies in Britain’s lucrative financial services sector appear reluctant to make the final decision to move “until they absolutely have to”, EY said.
iScotland would be completely compliant with EU law, it would be a net contributor, it has most of the EUs oil and fishing and the EU would love to do it to stick two fingers up at the rUK – and there has been some back channel discussions which give a good indication that this is how it would go
It would have to achieve independence first, for a start, and that is within the gift of Westminster. I'm afraid the other points you raise are worthy of debate but everything hinges on gaining independence first. If Scotland is so viable as a nation state the UK would be hatstand to let it out of its clutches. It would simply be worth too much to let go.
Reunification of Ireland I can see. The Irish sea border all but does it.
Del - thats a point that has not been tested in court - and under UN law self determination of a people? Eritrea used that route to gain its independence as did Kosovo IIRC
If as I expect that the pro independence parties get a significant majority in Holyrood on a platform of "independence now"the case becomes unanswerable so if westminster refuses permission and the courts back that then UDI becomes an option.
We dont want Brexit but we will happily see the UK split up.
If SNP get a landslide in May then Johnson would find it very hard not to allow a vote
Sturgeon is keeping her powder dry on that one
A no deal Brexit would be the best gift she could get in that regard
-Part of the reason Johnson will fold at the last minute & throw the fishing industry u Der the bus, of course sturgeon could use that too, & it would be game over for the Tories there, especially the coastal ones!
Yup - 'cos an independent scotland in the EU would have far more power than it has now and would retain all the advantages of being in the EU
Also the EU is a force for good. The UK does nothing but hold scotland back
We dont want Brexit but we will happily see the UK split up.
We don't want to be dragged into the Brexit shitshow you tossers started, so we will happily get out of something for the good of our population (who didn't vote for it).
FTFY.
Wonder if I could get dual nationality then? Would certainly make some things easier.
We dont want Brexit but we will happily see the UK split up.
I'm not happy about it but I see it as an inevitable consequence of brexit
The Tories specifically said that a No to indy was a vote to remain in the EU & that they would not get another chance unless something fundamental changes in the UK
They can't keep lying to people & expect it to be consequence free!
Similar to NI, Johnson explicitly promised no customs checks in Irish Sea
dishonesty has consequences
^^^
I should add that I have the misfortune (and I really do mean it in this regard) to be a born and bred Englishman.
akira - its not completely clear how nationality would work but IIRC its the people who live here plus those with a close connection to scotland. Would dual nationality be allowed? ~Some countries do some do not but if I had to bet Scotland would allow it but England would not.
My mum's from Glasgow so it's the best hope of getting EU citizenship back for me & my kids, at the moment
Which is a sone consolation.
Would dual nationality be allowed?
What if you're an Englishman, living in Scotland with dual Indian nationality through birth?🤔
Asking for a friend. 🤪
