mdavids its makes no sense for renault EU to do that tho. Thats the problem. They would rather have the barcelona plant open as closing that will cost a lot. Same for the unions. There is literally no upside for them to transfer production to the UK
There is literally no upside for them to transfer production to the UK
There literally is, cold hard cash.
Also the UK plant is an order of magnitude bigger than Barcelona, capable of pumping out half a million vehicles a year, and are already building the Nissan equivalent of the Renault models so very little investment would be needed.
Whatever happens with Barcelona is a decision for Nissan Japan, not Renault.
Bored now, I'm not making this up, the stories are out there, just google it. They might not to be true, I'm just giving you an insight and suggesting a few reasons why they could be true, and if they are true why this is a likely indicator of a no-deal.
I think point most miss when talking about cars is that the majority of buyers will just suck up the 10%. Doubt you'll even see it as the various promotions will become less generous to cover the cost.
If I wanted a 20k Ford Focus and it suddlenly jumped up 2k that wouldn't make me buy a 20k Renault that I didn't want in the first place, even less so if talking about 12/15k Fiesta/Micra. If every 60k BMW/Merc/Audi bumped up 6k what are the buyers going to turn to? My bet is they'll just not spec the 3k ICE or the like.
The car manufacturers are past masters at hiding price rises or convincing people they're getting a great deal so I really can't see much changing. The fact the economy is going to be borked will be the problem.
@mdavids you’re going to have to explain your numbers here.
I’ll try and explain it as simply as I can.
Using some very basic simplified figures, post brexit, if there’s no-deal, A Renault built in the EU and sold in the UK that currently costs £20000 will cost £22000. If they build it in the UK it will only cost £20000. Thats a huge amount of extra profit. 100’000 vehicles at an extra £2000 = £200’000’000
Are you saying the car will be 10% more expensive no matter where it is made, but that the manufacturer can hoover up an extra 10% profit per car?
If you are saying they’ll sell the UK made car at the original price then there’s no extra money in it for them and export tariffs may well make it less profitable, not more.
The Nissan renault group make about 3.5 times as many cars in Sunderland as they sell in the UK. Most of them go to Europe.
Modern car factory's can't just swap between models easily, it costs hundreds of millions to tool them up for each specific model. They can't just make the whole Nissan and Renault range at Sunderland for right hand drive markets, it's a cloud cuckoo land fantasy.
No deal means WTO rules on cars, meaning cars imported into the UK will have a 10% tariff added, and cars exported from the UK to the EU will have 10% added. Either the manufacturer absorbs this and accepts £2k (approx figure) less profit per car. Or increases the cost to the customer by £2k.
Rather than Renault importing into the UK they'd build cars here for the UK and continue to build in their own plants for the EU domestic market. Not all models, just Kadjar and Captur, which share a chassis with the current Nissan Qashqai and Juke and already share parts, so there's very little extra tooling required.
Although the Nissan UK volume would reduce from its current levels, it remains viable by having Renault's UK volume added.
I thought Juke sales were catastrophic and the Captur has embarrassing environmental credentials. They are old platforms which will need replacing with the investments that implies. The commitment to Sunderland seems low according to those stated objectives - no mention fo the Leaf which is the most promising Sunderland product.
Within the Renault-Nissan group Sunderland isn't a source of cheap cars compared with Roumania which saves 200e per Clio compared with France or Spain IIRC. 10% WTO is on complete cars, components are at 4.5% which means parts from Turkey and other low cost factories can still be attractive.
I thought Juke sales were catastrophic and the Captur has embarrassing environmental credentials. They are old platforms which will need replacing with the investments that implies
Both are now on the latest platform with new engines. Corona has stuck a large stick in the spokes so its hard to say if sales of the new Juke were going well.
The commitment to Sunderland seems low according to those stated objectives – no mention fo the Leaf which is the most promising Sunderland product.
They've been all about the crossover models for many years now. Leaf is a bit of a brand ambassador with token volumes. Electrification of existing models negate the need for it.
Within the Renault-Nissan group Sunderland isn’t a source of cheap cars compared with Roumania which saves 200e per Clio compared with France or Spain IIR
There's just no profit building that segment of car in higher cost countries, crossovers don't cost that much more to build but command much higher selling prices and therefore profits
Three good replies, mdavids.
The problem I see with the Juke is that it's not a hybrid and I think there will be more and more incentives in more and more countries to at least go hybrid. The Quashquai suffers the same problem though there was a report of Europe 1 recently about that platform going hybrid under pressure from the government.
Renault-Nissan made the choice of either 100% electrics or diesels and the demand is going to be bent towards hybrids. The both need to react quickly.
The problem I see with the Juke is that it’s not a hybrid and I think there will be more and more incentives in more and more countries to at least go hybrid. The Quashquai suffers the same problem though there was a report of Europe 1 recently about that platform going hybrid under pressure from the government.
There are hybrid versions of various flavours on the way. Nissan now own a controlling stake in Mitsubishi and will be using their Plug-in hybrid tech as well as tech of their own and Renaults.
Manufacturers now have no choice but to electrify their line up in order to meet increasingly stringent corporate average fuel consumption rules
If I was a car maker I’d offer ‘good news’ for the government whilst cashing their cheques and awaiting further and future considerations 🙂
I’m sure the Nissan producing cars here has been circulating for months and they refuse To acknowledge it, they’ll have loads of scenarios thou as that’s what companies do, plan and prepare.
And as usual, once the 'yay Sunderland is staying and cutting shifts, told you Brexit would be a success' noise has settled down, we get to the bottom line:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-52900528
Let's also revisit the 'Brexit will allow us to take more tech tax because the EU rules stop us from reforming' tale of yore. Looks like America has other ideas *sad trombone sound*
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1267950605068369920
I get a feeling this isn't going to go as well as has been claimed lads. Just a feeling though.
As has always been clear.. Nissan Sunderland is not viable under no deal.
We're so ****ed
No tweeting about this from Andrew Neil who has been loudly trumpeting any positive noises from Nissan about UK factories?
No tweeting about this from Andrew Neil
Apparently it's fine because reasons (the replies on this are something).
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1268207305369300992
Nissan leaving is the least of our worries. Construction is ****ed, I'd say at least 50% of planned projects won't even start this year and ongoing sites (those that have restarted) are working on a massively reduced workforce
I was relatively confident that I'd be back to work but now I'm leaning towards getting made redundant the minute employer furlough contributions kick in
Everyone I know in construction is busier than ever, and future projects not on hold. Where in the UK are you?
London. All our big projects (tower/multi blocks of flats) are running at either 50% or less workforce or not at all
Construction was in recession way before Corona was even heard of and you can add to that a shortage of bricks and plaster
Everyone I know in construction is busier than ever, and future projects not on hold. Where in the UK are you?
Erm, you do know that social distancing limits site operative #’s to a fraction of pre covid one way systems in operation and that welfare facilities need to be massively increased (plus one trade at time). That, and the PPE, will significantly increase the cost of construction. Are the supply chains back up?
Plus local authority budgets are you know, and I’ll use a technical term, completely ****ed...
Plus, contract law if there’s a second spike? Who will pay for it, client or contractor?
It will have a significant effect... and none of it positive
The morality-free Brexit loons, led by Dom and Dommer actually see Covid as an opportunity to shift the blame for the economic devastation of a no deal Brexit.
They’re absolutely unhinged!
My Irony-meter almost broke today reading an exchange between people I know on Facebook. The initial message was a moan about the Welsh lock down rules..
"This isn't a dig against anybody in particular except the government.
I can go and see family within 5"ish" miles and I interact with people at work etc applying the social distancing rules where possible. England can pretty much travel everywhere except into Wales yet I can't go over to visit my daughter in the Midlands.
Very frustrated"
Fair enough. But in wades a lad who is the biggest fan of Brexit out of anyone I know with
"I feel your pain. This is what you get with a devolved parliament. Rather than fight this united together, you have devolved parliaments doing their own thing to prove they are worthwhile."
You couldn't make it up.
Erm, you do know that social distancing limits site operative #’s to a fraction of pre covid one way systems in operation and that welfare facilities need to be massively increased (plus one trade at time). That, and the PPE, will significantly increase the cost of construction. Are the supply chains back up?
Correct, The site I was on pre lockdown has a canteen that could hold 120+ people, its now 24 as its one person to a table with no microwaves or fridges, middle toilets/urinals blocked off etc etc
Contracts are also being renegotiated due to completion times/over hire penalties
As I said before there was a shortage of bricks pre lockdown its even worse now
@mehr: exactly, I know that contracts are being delayed as who will bear the additional costs (and the ‘failure’ to meet the programme dates). The prelims costs alone must have at least doubled (if not trebled) as a result of Covid mitigation measures.
I’ll have some of whatever Kelvins mates are tooting (most main contractors are still heavily furloughed here, Scotland). 😷🤪😁
Fair enough. But in wades a lad who is the biggest fan of Brexit out of anyone I know with
“I feel your pain. This is what you get with a devolved parliament. Rather than fight this united together, you have devolved parliaments doing their own thing to prove they are worthwhile.”
You couldn’t make it up.
'Big fan' of Brexit in 'shit for brains shocker'?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/06/03/britain-ready-allow-import-chlorinated-chicken-us/
Hormone-fed beef, chlorinated chicken and other foods that use techniques banned in Britain will be allowed across the Atlantic, but ministers want to use tariffs to make it uneconomical for US producers to export them to the UK.
That's simply impossible Kelvin
Lots of brexiteers promised it would never happen
https://amp.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/nick-ferrari/chlorinated-chicken-not-sold-in-uk-michael-gove
Wrong again, or lying again?
metalheart - I have a network of construction contacts across the UK covering T1 contractors, subbies and suppliers; everyone I talk with confirms your view.
kelvin is in a minority of 1 with his view.
Infrastructure construction is largely unchanged; most of the rest of construction is on it's arse.
Parts of the resi sector have re-opened but all they're doing is building properties for a market which is disappearing in front of their eyes.
The construction sector is trying, unsuccessfully, to talk up the market.
Very odd. As I said, everyone I know is busy right now, and saying that near term projects still going ahead, and lots to catch up with. Shares prices in the industry suggest that’s not just a Yorkshire thing either. Not sure about residential demand being truly damaged either. Prices may be lower for a short while for houses hitting the market right now, but few people expect that not to pick up for builds to be released later this year once restrictions are further relaxed and the public return to planning the moves they have had on hold.
None of that relates to Brexit though.
Next year could be a whole world of pain.
Anyway… we need the farmers in this thread right now… step one of the Brexitiers screwing them has occurred precisely as predicted…
It will be a long time before I consider buying shares in any UK construction company.
Share prices generally have now lost contact with reality; we've been here before.
As furlough support unwinds we'll see a significant spike in unemployment; that will have a direct and immediate impact on the housing sector.
The simplistic measure of commercial construction activity is how many tower cranes are still operating.
There will be an over-supply of office accommodation as WFH becomes more established and redundancies happen; planned new developments will either be deferred or canned; partially built developments will either be completed or moth-balled - if completed, where are the clients?
Commercial rents will be forced down.
We're just in the early days; much pain to come.
https://twitter.com/RMcGreevy1301/status/1268657169911746564?s=20
I'm betting that by this time next year they won't have the option to quit, or they'll have their benefits stopped. And there's going to be an awful lot more people on benefits. We'll all be picking fruit and living in a caravan in Norfolk
Looks like that while everyone is distracted, Cummings is continuing to go through the motions of 'negotiations' while really just counting down the days to the deadline for extending the withdrawal agreement to pass, and then its a No Deal Brexit to look forward too for us all, with the economic carnage that will entail, on top of the Covid destruction.
Brexit was always madness, a No-Deal ridiculously damaging, but to plough on with it on top of the chaos in the economy brought by Covid is just out and out insanity!
Christ only knows what state this country is going to be in this time next year with these lunatics in charge
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1268863366501720064?s=20
The only trade deal they are interested in is a USA one… this has always been the case.
I agree Binners, it is utter madness and the lying bellends we have running the country will continue to blame the EU for a no-deal Brexit (even though that is what they have been foaming at the mouth for from the start).
It's OK, the grown-ups will be here in a moment to sort this out.
Who'd have thought a no-deal Brexit wouldn't be the shit sandwich, but just the cherry on top?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52934128
Oh, the easiest deal in history is a) really difficult and b) compounded by the fact that we're led by total lying idiots.
Still, I look forward to my chlorinated chicken and then paying a fortune to go to hospital thanks to the newly privatised / insured American style healthcare system.
So this transition/implementation period that ends in less than seven months… hands up if know you what your company is transitioning to and the changes it needs to be implementing…?
Great, another milestone to celebrate.
hands up if know you what your company is transitioning to and the changes it needs to be implementing…?
We ploughed an enormous amount of time and effort into expensive, messy workarounds and unsatisfactory bodges so we could continue servicing customers as best as we could in the even of no deal last year. So that again, but with a bit more time to iron out the worst of the grey areas. It'll work, but it'll be messy, expensive and unsatisfactory, with no upsides at all to the current arrangements with freedom of services.
We did a huge amount of work for the original date and it was briefed to us but it was so long ago I have forgotten most of it!
We expanded an office in Dublin from 100 to 1000 people and sent £166 billion of capital...
