I was listening to a podcast the other day (Remainiacs) and they made an interesting comment about the plan to train up 50,000 NEW border customs staff ready for the result of this absolute shit-show.
Someone pointed out the rather staggering number of 50,000 staff just to sort the borders/customs etc out for the UK compared to the fact that the entire European Commission employs 'only' 32000 people. All this talk of red tape, fat cats, bureaucracy etc. but how much red tape will all this generate & what does the wage bill of 50,000 new customs staff look like? Assuming £30k per person for a salary, you are looking at £1.5bn before you even get to pensions etc.
Assuming £30k per person for a salary, you are looking at £1.5bn before you even get to pensions etc.
And the NHS will be getting £350m a week too!
I'm sure there's a fully costed plan.
**** Brexit.
but how much red tape will all this generate & what does the wage bill of 50,000 new customs staff look like?
All EU IT systems which we presently enjoy full access too will all have to be duplicated, at absolutely vast expense.
What do you reckon the chances of those systems, plus all the rest of the infrastructure needed, being in place before the end of the year?
Interesting from that, that the UK is trying to downgrade data protection legislation.
Now who still thinks the the NHS tracking app data would be safe with doms Cambridge analytica pals?
Did anyone see Gove being worried that the EU were not doing enough to protect Brits abroad?
As a Dane living in the UK I wanted to punch the screen when I read that.
What do you reckon the chances of those systems, plus all the rest of the infrastructure needed, being in place before the end of the year?
They are straining every sinew to ramp up capacity. Herculean effort. Following the science.
https://twitter.com/AnnaJerzewska/status/1262343541440774144
To be fair, after out complete shit show handling of the Corona virus pandemic, the rest of Europe is probably glad to see the back of us.
Mikkel
Did anyone see Gove being worried that the EU were not doing enough to protect Brits abroad?
As a Dane living in the UK I wanted to punch the screen when I read that.
As a brit living in Germany, the brexiters rhetoric always worries me, usually later to be soothed be the pragmatism of the German authorities. But once again Gove has raised my fears (and blood pressure) that we will be used as pawns and cast aside for these retards ambitions and that they will **** it up. It isn't nice living with that kind of fear hanging over your life, I am not wealthy enough and too old to start my life from scratch again.
I think it will be delayed by another 6 months to a year. Otherwise it might be too much of a shock to businesses.
Nobody will blame them either for delaying it.
It will not. They want no deal and the chaos
Hmmm, maybe a new career as a customs official is calling me!
To be fair, after out complete shit show
handling of the Corona virus pandemicof everything the Government have done in the last three years, the rest of Europe is probably glad to see the back of us.
FTFY.
Keep an eye on the news at the end of the month regarding Nissan. There's a story floating around on various news sites that they're planning to build a couple of Renault models in their Sunderland plant.
If this proves to be true, which we should know by the end of the month, I think it's very good indicator that a no-deal is pretty much nailed on.
if its no deal Nissan will not be building any new cars in the UK as they will not be able to sell them into the EU without a financial disadvantage
if its no deal Nissan will not be building any new cars in the UK as they will not be able to sell them into the EU without a financial disadvantage
Thats why they'll be bringing Renaults here, they'll then only build RH drive Nissans and Renaults for the UK market and any other market where there is an existing trade deal
If this proves to be true, which we should know by the end of the month, I think it’s very good indicator that a no-deal is pretty much nailed on.
Its been glaringly obvious for quite some time that No Deal is the only outcome they've ever wanted. They need the ensuring financial chaos to restructure our society into the Ayn Rand style, deregulated, tax haven Fantasy Island.
Incredibly, they're so unhinged that instead of viewing what's happening at the moment as a reason to maybe pause and take stock of the new economic reality, they're determined to do the opposite. They see this whole crisis as an opportunity, no matter what the final death toll is
mdavids - the UK market is not big enough to sustain them and we will have NO trade deals if its no deal. The trade deals we have now are as part of the EU. Leave the EU with no deal none of them apply
Intellectual colossus and Mr Self-awareness, David Davis, is presently on Radio 4 mansplaining the philosophy/myth that as we get to 11th hour the EU will cave and give us the best trade deal ever! With full access to EU markets but we won't have to pay anything in, as well as having separate trade deals with other countries, unconstrained by EU standards or rules
Cakism is alive and well and still guiding the UK policy to this whole thing.
We really are truly ****ed!
They are straining every sinew to ramp up capacity. Herculean effort. Following the science.
The article quoted doesn’t relate to the Customs staff but Agents who prepare the customs entry and then submit it to Customs, so in reality it’s a double shambles- no private industry to make declarations no HMRC to deal with entries. Blue passports though.
Which right hand drive markets were you thinking of @mdavids ? I can see models for the entire group being produced here (for a short time at least) for UK market… but I can’t see exports being a major part of that plan.
You’re rich enough to sort your non-UK passport, but haven’t yet? What are you waiting for…? Pay to keep your rights… it’s only the plebs that we’re stripping of theirs…
https://twitter.com/edwardjdavey/status/1218079546236440576?s=21
the UK market is not big enough to sustain
Based on recent available figures you're wrong. Right hand drive sales alone for Nissan and Renault would be enough to keep the plant viable, its probably about 200'000. Plus any car built in the UK would be instantly 10% cheaper than anything imported giving them a large price advantage over their competitors.
Rest of World non-EU volumes are only a small percentage of their build and are a nice-to-have rather than essential so if trade deals with those countries couldn't be carried over straight away this wouldn't make the plant non-viable.
In the event of a no-deal, the current situation for Nissan is that their entire Europe operation becomes non-viable, not just UK. So they either shut up shop completely in Europe or adapt and at least keep some sales.
Renault really don't want the UK to build their models, unless they really had to. Being able to build and sell them 10% cheaper than importing them is a rather large incentive. If the stories turn out to be true, for me that indicates the industry is betting on a no deal and preparing accordingly.
I guess we'll find out at the end of the month.
Intellectual colossus and Mr Self-awareness, David Davis, is presently on Radio 4 mansplaining the philosophy/myth that as we get to 11th hour the EU will cave and give us the best trade deal ever! With full access to EU markets but we won’t have to pay anything in, as well as having separate trade deals with other countries, unconstrained by EU standards or rules
Cakism is alive and well and still guiding the UK policy to this whole thing.
We really are truly ****ed!
The main thing I took away from his 'interview' was that he sounded like he was pissed.
I always just assumed, from the way he sounded, that David Davis was permanently pissed.
Then I thought that maybe he wasn't and he just sounds like it because he's a simpleton.
Now I just think it's both
Blue passports though.
My passport expired so needed to renew, the new British passport arrived and looks black unless it catches some light just right
Mdavids
Why will cars be cheaper built here? They will be paying tariffs on the parts imported
European Nissan plants will be almost unaffected
There will be no export market for Nissan uk
Why will cars be cheaper built here? They will be paying tariffs on the parts imported
Did you not listen to David Davis this morning TJ? There aren't going to be any tariffs. The EU are going to cave in at the last minute, in the face of plucky English negotiating skill and give us the best tariff-free trade deal ever, because... erm... BMW's and Prosseco, or something
While we clap for carers, and Prince Charles backs the “PICK FOR BRITAIN’ campaign, we are supposed to be thanking the government for punishing those who come here to work in the care system and work on our farms. Depressing stuff.
Mdavids
Why will cars be cheaper built here? They will be paying tariffs on the parts importedEuropean Nissan plants will be almost unaffected
There will be no export market for Nissan uk
Reverting to WTO rules will add 10% to the sale cost of all cars coming in and going out of the country. A Renault or Nissan thats built and then sold here will not face that tariff therefore 10% cheaper than an imported one, and 10% cheaper than their competitors.
Imported automotive parts are different and can be left tariff free if the government desires, see below link:
Link
There are also a lot of UK parts suppliers and a big drive to bring in more, also many parts coming from China, Japan etc.
Nissan Barcelona is barely viable as it is and the reports are suggesting this will be closed with their models going into Renault plants, allowing Renault models to then shift to UK.
You're right, there won't be an EU export market, thats the point I'm making, but it won't be needed as the majority of vehicles will be sold in the UK with a small percentage going to non-EU markets
.
And there is zero chance of eu manufacturers allowing parts to flow into the UK
Nissan has said the plant is not viable after brexit
And there is zero chance of eu manufacturers allowing parts to flow into the UK
EH?? If a supplier wants to sell parts to the UK why wouldn't they? It's extra business, and it's up to the UK whether to add import tariffs to those parts, and according to that link there won't be tariffs on these goods
Nissan has said the plant is not viable after brexit
In it's current form yes. The addition of Renault volume makes it viable.
If it's a choice as you say of parts into UK or the eu plant remaining viable?
Are Renault not still partly state Owned?
Also from your link eu can put export tariffs in place
I think you are hopelessly optimistic
If it’s a choice as you say of parts into UK or the eu plant remaining viable?
With or without Brexit, Barcelona has problems.
Are Renault not still partly state Owned?
Yes. And heavily unionised and very protective. Which is why if the reports are true and they allow models to come to the UK it suggests a no-deal is inevitable - they can sell Renaults in the UK cheaper than their competitors.
Also from your link eu can put export tariffs in place
Export tariffs on what? The point I'm making is the vast majority vehicles would be for the UK market, they wouldn't be exported to the EU. Renault plants in the EU would build the same models but just for the EU.
I think you are hopelessly optimistic
I'm passing on what various papers have reported, and suggesting if this is true it's a good indication that Renault and Nissan know a no-deal is inevitable and are taking measures to get a jump on their competitors.
If manufacturers pass on the 10% to the customer, as most will, buying a UK built car will save you a lot of money.
Renault and Nissan know a no-deal is inevitable and are taking measures to get a jump on their competitors
Every company should be acting is no-deal is happening, whatever they “know”… waiting for the outcome of negotiations if an extension is ruled out is not any option… the timeline just doesn’t work if you have plants and production to plan for.
Every company should be acting is no-deal is happening
I agree, but knowing about it and actually being able to do something that mitigates the damage are 2 different things.
As Nissan have publicly stated, no-deal will destroy their Europe operation completely. However building cars in the UK for the UK might be viable providing the volume is there.
The majority of EU manufacturers will just stick 10% on to the cost of car for UK customers as there just isn't the profit margin not to.
Eu can put export tariffs on the parts that Nissan import from the eu
Most of the value of the cars is it not?
might be viable providing the volume is there
Let's hope nothing happens that craters our economy even harder than Brexit and pulls the rug out from under the car lease market. Fingers crossed.
Eu can put export tariffs on the parts that Nissan import from the eu
I'll be honest I don't know if they could, my understanding is tariffs are generally levied at the point of import by the country doing the importing.
I'd suggest it would be completely ridiculous for them to do so, they'd be deliberately making their own companies un-competitive, there are many other automotive suppliers all over the world who would happily take that business off them.
Most of the value of the cars is it not?
Surprisingly not
It doesn't matter if the car built here is cheaper, if your unemployed and bankrupt, you still won't be able to afford one 😁
I thought to mark our triumphant escape from our continental oppressor we were going to relaunch the glory days of the British car industry?
Why would renault france partly state owned and heavily unionised allow a plant in the UK to get a competative advantage? ~The answer is they will not and given how easy it is to fire staff here compared to the EU its far better for them to shut the UK plant
The pcps will just have longer terms, people like their German Kubelwagens.
Don’t forget they were promised all sorts of sweeteners in the May days, wring some more money out of a desperate government and walk away later if it’s not enough.
The Covid money tree can carry on shaking if required.
Why would renault france partly state owned and heavily unionised allow a plant in the UK to get a competative advantage? ~The answer is they will not and given how easy it is to fire staff here compared to the EU its far better for them to shut the UK plant
I'll try and explain it as simply as I can.
Using some very basic simplified figures, post brexit, if there's no-deal, A Renault built in the EU and sold in the UK that currently costs £20000 will cost £22000. If they build it in the UK it will only cost £20000. Thats a huge amount of extra profit. 100'000 vehicles at an extra £2000 = £200'000'000
They aren't losing volume because they are still building for non-UK markets and Nissan would shift volume from their closed Barcelona plant to Renault, plus if they just kept importing to the UK they'd likey see a massive drop in RH drive sales as customers would be unwilling to pay the extra 10%, plus if they are cheaper than their competitors they would likely see an increase in sales.
It would make sense for both companies, especially when neither company is doing particularly well at the moment
I just googled "export tariffs" and the first response tells me that they are levied to encourage domestic consumption of domestically produced goods (and therefore discourage the export). It also tells me they are less rare than import tariffs...
