Really this boils down to propaganda for the next few years..
Nissan "announcement" of the battery plant with 6500 jobs has cost the UK £80,000 per job bribe, bung, investment. All that cash to a French company.no tax will ever be recovered from that business (other than PAYE which will take 15 years or more yo break even)
Give me £800k and i will create 10 high paid long term jobs, but we all know that wont happen.
I dont know what economic miracle the likes of Rishi is hoping for but its not one i can imagine?
I have said it before on here the tools of the past (oil, gold, deregulation, council housing,) have all gone (except NHS data) and we have insufficient trades, skills and now people which is creating significant short term problems and an economy that has insufficient tax payers V tax takers (benefits pensions)
All the above is a massive structural problem that in some ways presents a bigger challenge than post WW2 Britain.
The question is how long can the Tories keep the smoke and mirrors going? They have nonother tools other than borrowing to prop thecountry and bribe investors. This will come crumbling down driven by inflation, risng interest rates, an ageing population and significant cost increases in food, power, general stuff.
The party is over and many Tories know this.
My revised guestimate for this going wrong is spring 2023 maybe a bit later say Autumn 2023 as this depends on the abilty (brassneck) of the Tories to spend borrowed cash right up to the next election.
I have spent a fair bit of time during covid looking at this and watching what business and more importantly investors are actually doing with their cash and its pretty much all going into "things" that will be needed in a recession (private sector health, NHS support services, Financial Services (pensions insurance) its not going into housing social or otherwise, retail, commercial property, hospitality. The people investing have far more brains and knowledge than me but i known who to watch.
I dont think Covid has actually had a great impact on the above it has however brought lots of the above into focus and demonstrated to the investors that they need to shift their focus.
I am no economic guru but its all in plain sight exposed by covid and Brexit and the Tories desperate lack of initiative.
My gut reaction is that when it happens it will be huge with massive negative equity on private, commercial property and land. Pensions and investments (shares) will suffer equally.
The government buying jobs at £80k each will not stop this it will actually make it worse by driving consumption and inflation.
The government buying jobs at £80k each will not stop this it will actually make it worse by driving consumption and inflation
That’s only the initial down payment, they’ll be back for more 🙂
the penny might begin to drop as to why the whole European thing began with an idea that common trade arrangements may be a way of dicouraging peoples from going to war with each other
The genius of Johnson (or whoever gave him the line to deliver) was to push the “Project Fear say we’ll have World War Three if you vote to Leave, what nonsense” line. Neutralised one of the most important arguments for the EU. Big, slow but with fundamental advantages well beyond (most of us) having the same colour passport.
Anyway, surprisingly, polls are still showing the UK split 50/50… not just on whether Brexit was/is a good idea, but also, against my expectations, whether we should rejoin. Heavily weighted towards the younger generations, of course. So many see straight through Johnson and his “say anything to become King” politics… perhaps quietly accepting the lies he tell about our place in Europe isn’t the way to neutralise his hold on the electorate.
Regarding the severe shortage of haulage drivers?
Employers now reaping the rewards of their short-term approach to the labour supply. If you're not training you're not going to grow. Yes for some employees it will be wasted money but if you pay or treat people poorly you can expect your newly-trained workers to go where they are valued. It's not rocket surgery
All that cash to a French company.no tax will ever be recovered from that business (other than PAYE which will take 15 years or more yo break even)
Well not exactly, a lot of the wage money paid to employees will be spent here and many of the auxilliary businesses that supply the factory will also be British and then also pay people who live here. In fact, if they sell batteries (or cars) to other countries that will probably be sucking money into the UK.
But if you pay or treat people poorly you can expect your newly-trained workers to go where they are valued.
That assumes there's anywhere better to go and / or you've not got people willing to move to you.
Tory answer, pay the drivers more (you need them first before you can pay them more…), we’ll also try and train new ones up faster.
Ok.
Project fear of course.
From me looking for HGV work the pay isn't that bad per hour, where its crap is the hours they expect you to do. There are obviously some really crap jobs available - I see one constantly advertised that's collecting and delivering linen to hotels, £9.80/hr with an average shift if 11 hours staring at 3am with a 6 on, 1 off, 5 on, 2 off shift pattern. Basically the legal maximum they can make you do for the minimum they can pay - but the majority are around the 12/hr mark which is reasonably good. There is a massive backlog on HGV tests though, add in the high cost (minimum is £1800 to go from a car license to
class 2 with a full DCPC card) and it's a big barrier to getting new drivers through.
Employers now reaping the rewards of their short-term approach to the labour supply. If you’re not training you’re not going to grow. Yes for some employees it will be wasted money but if you pay or treat people poorly you can expect your newly-trained workers to go where they are valued. It’s not rocket surgery
This is a massive issue. So many companies are used to drivers funding the training themselves then looking for work, add in the constant supply of Eastern European drivers and they have fully got used to not having to train people up. A lot are also insisting on drivers new to them having at least a year of driving unde their belt too but that is quickly changing as they get more desperate. I've had two companies phone me back this last week who originally rejected my application due to only just passing my test, no solid offers yet but they are softening on the issue.
where its crap is the hours they expect you to do
You ain’t seen nothing yet.
Current restrictions on working hours for drivers have no chance of surviving Brexit.
molgrips
Full MemberWell not exactly, a lot of the wage money paid to employees will be spent here and many of the auxilliary businesses that supply the factory will also be British and then also pay people who live here. In fact, if they sell batteries (or cars) to other countries that will probably be sucking money into the UK.
Sure, but it's 2021, we've spent decades setting things up so that money flows to the top and the actual value-adding part of the company- the factory and the people making stuff- is getting as little as possible. So yeah the taxes paid by the few people who can't dodge paying any tax is a cash flow but it's nothing to get excited about. If we- the country- aren't getting a slice of the actual profits then we're losing out. In fact everyone's losing out, because the more we fight over these scraps and declare them to be some sort of big win, the easier it is for the companies to reduce the amount they actually fork out.
Current restrictions on working hours for drivers have no chance of surviving Brexit.
They can't touch anything to do with tachograph limits, which are more strict than WTD (which almost every company makes you waive anyway), If they do then no driver from the UK will be able to drive on the continent as you have to be able to prove compliance with the EU rules for the last 28 days (a tacho card holds 30 days of data). That means pretty much zero deliveries leaving our shores as the ferry and Eurotunnel are not set up for anything than the traction unit and trailer going as one unit.
Current restrictions on working hours for drivers have no chance of surviving Brexit.
They're on about 'relaxing' them now. Coming soon to a motorway near you - 40 tonner ploughs through Central reservation and crushes a family in a hatchback. Whilst the lorry driver catches some z's.
no driver from the UK will be able to drive on the continent
Not none, but far fewer. This is what divergence is all about. UK drivers will in the main be working UK routes only, and driving longer hours. This was pointed out five years ago, and the people put in power to deliver Brexit are itching to put it in place.
There will be a massive push-back if they do. Lots of drivers are fed up of the long hours as it is and any push to make them do longer will result in either strikes (unless they've banned them!) or lots of drivers leaving the industry. There's already a looming crisis with lots due to retire in the next decade and not enough young blood coming through, that was brewing before Brexit.
@kelvin You somewhat misquoted @reluctantjumper there, his full sentence (with my emboldening) was:
They can’t touch anything to do with tachograph limits, which are more strict than WTD (which almost every company makes you waive anyway), If they do then no driver from the UK will be able to drive on the continent as you have to be able to prove compliance with the EU rules for the last 28 days
There's a significant number of unaccompanied freight that crosses the channel, i.e. just the trailer, it's what those funny tractor units with the small cab that looks as if it should be on a fork lift truck are for. Eurotunnel I think have to be tractor and trailer as a unit because of how they embark/disembark.
British companies have been trying to shortcut training for decades - I worked in the construction industry in the 1980s and they were looking at employing EU brickies, etc. rather than put someone through an apprenticeship because "they might not stay with us so we won't waste the money".
There will be a massive push-back if they do.
The haulage industry will be, to put it politely, “completely overhauled”, by the people put in power to deliver Brexit. They don’t give even the tiniest shit about anyone who works in it, and have consistently ignored all warnings and advice given to them by those who speak for haulage firms and drivers. Why do you think that they will start listening now?
. Why do you think that they will start listening now?
I'd like to think that once a couple of over worked lorry drivers have crushed a couple of families in motorway pile ups, people might take notice.
Sadly it will take tragedy to make anything happen
I might have missed it but I don’t think I’ve seen Boris The Trucker yet.
Stand by for an attack on "needless red tape" and "nonsense restrictions that made drivers' jobs harder" and of course some good old British Common Sense.
I don't know if this is at all representative but I only know a couple of drivers who have tacho restrictions and they both like to rant about how stupid the rules are and how they create problems like an easy 1 day job getting a rest break stuck in it or how they got delayed while waiting to load up and now they can't make the drop because they'll time out... Seems like for them at least there's just the right sort of frustration for a scumbag politician to worm into.
Both my dad and his brother were drivers who were working when tachos became more widely adopted. Lots of moaning about them for the first year or so, but it soon became the norm, and they protect drivers just as much as the public.
Drivers will be made to work longer hours post Brexit, no matter how many good reasons you give for that not being beneficial. Britannia Unchained.
Perhaps we'll see a return to the good old days of drivers running 2 tacho cards to get the hours in.
That was possible in the paper days but the vehicle records the info too now and they download it whenever a vehicle is stopped as well as the card. Transport managers have to do an upload of the data at minimum every 28 days too with the records being compared to the driver's uploads. They've also added that if you're inspected by the DVSA, either on the road or via your uploads, then anything amiss in the 28 days before can be an endorsable or finable offence. It used to be only if you're caught while on the roadand that day's data only too.
Drivers will be made to work longer hours post Brexit, no matter how many good reasons you give for that not being beneficial.
Drivers can always walk away and get a different job. There is also just stopping working too. Do it en masse in a targeted way (like the French) and you will have empty shelves and a very upset population. Don't forget that pretty much everything in your house - including what it's built from - will have been driven by truck at some point in it's journey to you. Stop the trucks stop the country.
You could almost say it's taking back control.
That will just speed up the “complete overhaul” of the industry. Stop the trucks, bring on the deregulation. Jobs in the HGV industry will look more like driving for Amazon or Uber even sooner. Brexit will remove power as well as protections from workers in all sectors. There’s no sign at all that haulage will avoid the Britannia Unchanged future coming down the tracks thanks to Brexit. Drivers haven’t “taken back control”, the politicians who hold them in total distain have.
Deregulation to improve profits was always the aim
I’d like to think that once a couple of over worked lorry drivers have crushed a couple of families in motorway pile ups, people might take notice.
Nah.
Deregulation to improve profits was always the aim
Yep.
I’d like to think that once a couple of over worked lorry drivers have crushed a couple of families in motorway pile ups, people might take notice.
Like they did when the mishandling of covid cost x k amount of lives 🙁
Jobs in the HGV industry will look more like driving for Amazon or Uber even sooner.
Except they won't. Because if you are crossing the border into the EU (as HGVs are wont to do) - then you need to observe their regulations.
I hate Brexit as much as the next guy, but the Brexit 'deregulate everything unilaterally' fantasies are coming apart on contact with reality - they just can't do it. It is why Brexit doesn't work and will be a forever drag on our economy. Even if our government doesn't want to acknowledge it.
but the Brexit ‘deregulate everything unilaterally’ fantasies are coming apart on contact with reality – they just can’t do it.
Pretty much, even their "Taking back control" rings hollow when the French can shut the border...
Except they won’t. Because if you are crossing the border into the EU (as HGVs are wont to do) – then you need to observe their regulations.
Fewer and fewer HGV cabs will be crossing the border in future, especially for multiple destination drop offs. More containers, more trailer only crossings, more centralised distribution/fulfilment centres run by huge companies and used by small and medium sized ones. More transportation within the UK using smaller vehicles with less well paid drivers doing longer hours with no job security at all. Come back in five years and explain then how I was wrong, and that the HGV driving profession is going from strength to strength with all protections maintained… if that’s the case I’ll be both pleased and surprised.
Anecdotal evidence is that supply chain issues are now evident in west London. Will be interesting to see how the "Project Fear" fans will respond.
supply chain issues obvious in any supermarket around here.
Fresh produce is less abundant, shorter use by dates and gaps on the shelves
I'll call it now, the HGV profession will be going from strength to strength in the next 5 years.
Fewer HGV cabs are already crossing the border, and yet:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-57656327
I'll even go for HGV drivers being added to the skilled visa list in the next 12-18 months as the cover of Covid starts to fall away.
Or we'll all be queued up in our Transit vans outside a Freeport waiting to pick up our freight allotment in exchange for the thin gruel of beans and cabbage that we are now paid. We can only gaze through the window of the fully stocked supermarkets we supply.
That assumes there’s anywhere better to go
If employers want the staff they will have "to pay the going rate" with the conditions to match. (It's the boardroom excuse that's going to "trickle down" and not in the way the Neo-libs expected).
A big logistics company will fail in the near future as a result of poor management as their staff abandon them. Train or die is coming.
Train or die is coming.
Working with little or no training is on the rise. Deregulation is required to enable this in heavily regulated roles. It will come because we have put people in power who have told us time and time again that is their fundamental reason for being in politics. Those expecting a huge investment in a trained workforce because of Brexit are still hoping for a “different Brexit” that isn’t coming. Of course businesses will fail along the way. Assuming workers will benefit from that, because those that “properly support” and train their staff will be the ones that grow… is, well, hopeful.
Assuming workers will benefit from that, because those that “properly support” and train their staff will be the ones that grow… is, well, hopeful.
Training costs money and upfront investment before the employer sees a return. These are anathema to the Britannia Unchained mob. Their credo is to make a quick buck, get the cash out of reach of anyone else then let someone else deal with the consequences.
Tonights Panorama is looking at the real impact of Brexit on various businesses, including the large number who've just quietly closed their UK concerns and moved to the EU to remain in the single market
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1411947720923824128?s=20
That video... making a lazy idle Brit work harder by making selling throughout Europe harder... a Britannia Unchained wet dream.
British workers are "among the worst idlers in the world", a group of Conservative MPs has claimed.
The UK "rewards laziness", does not encourage risk-taking and must strive to emulate the work ethic and low-tax culture in parts of Asia, the five MPs argue in a book due out next month.
The authors include Elizabeth Truss and Dominic Raab, both tipped to be promoted in a future reshuffle.
"Too many people in Britain prefer a lie-in to hard work," they argue.
I’d like to think that once a couple of over worked lorry drivers have crushed a couple of families in motorway pile ups, people might take notice.
Like they did with smart motorways?
I can sympathise with some tacho issues, we have drivers that get a minute added every time they stop, if you get bad traffic that can really mess with your hours. Deregulation would be the managers dream, not so much the drivers.
Tories be torying again....
If you live in a shitty old tower block with dangerous cladding you must have made some bad life choices, therefore this is your fault. (Goes the Tory logic).
Wonder how much Jenrick has pocketed as a result of this. Good old 'Honest Bob' strikes again.
More playing up to the xenophobic 'New Nasty' support base:
Working with little or no training is on the rise. Deregulation is required to enable this in heavily regulated roles.
We have already seen this in healthcare where jobs that should be done by trained regulated professionals are instead being done by untrained and unregulated folk
We have already seen this in healthcare where jobs that should be done by trained regulated professionals are instead being done by untrained and unregulated folk
Yep.
There are job and procedures being done by, for example, nurses* that would have caused an outcry 40 years ago if they had been given to anyone other than a doctor*.
And the resulting payouts that are made on the quiet to settle the tribunals that result are hushed up. Or the under-qualified employee is hung out to dry. But being paid off on the quiet is more likely.
Meanwhile - having junior staff doing roles where they are easily influenced by senior management and being audited by audit juniors whilst the seniors go out for lunch with the 'client' leads to this kind of thing:
https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/leicester-news/former-top-leicester-nhs-bosses-4958990
And they're not exactly shouting that from the rooftops. Sometimes (most of the time, in fact) 'red tape' is actually checks and balances that have evolved over time to combat specific frauds/crimes. People who don't like following the 'red tape' are (very often) lazy and incompetent. Sometimes actually criminal.
*Just choosing the most 'obvious' grades.
The Nurses doing what was doctors jobs is rarely an issue. Its the nurses jobs being done by non nurses that is more of an issue.
The Nurses doing what was doctors jobs is rarely an issue. Its the nurses jobs being done by non nurses that is more of an issue.
Yeah - I just (lazily) picked the 'standard' two job titles.
Even WRVS volunteers can end up doing stuff that becomes intrinsic to the running of a hospital department. Admin etc.
Just watched that Panorama programme, it wasn't the most in-depth look was it? I did notice it heavily leant on a positive ending too, going completely against what the rest of the programme had been hinting at. If I didn't know any better I'd say that the new Director General had been 'encouraged' to paint a positive picture, but then things like that don't happen at the impartial BBC.
Please let that last bit still be true!
We have already seen this in healthcare where jobs that should be done by trained regulated professionals are instead being done by untrained and unregulated folk
I've heard that a lot over the last few years from my friends who work in the NHS and other healthcare providers. Everything from non-trained staff administering medicine (injections, pills and the cross-effects) to overhearing staff arguing with management about being told to do something for which they are not trained to do. I've also been led to believe that there is a massive culture of not reporting these issues too, with 'whistleblowers' suffering with being shut out of 'bank' work and getting poor shift patterns etc. I know the Healthcare sector is huge so hopefully those stories are few and far between but if that's the kind of culture everywhere can 'look forward to' in t he next few years then it's a scary thought.
The Nurses doing what was doctors jobs is rarely an issue. Its the nurses jobs being done by non nurses that is more of an issue.
In honesty I think I'd trust a nurse over a doctor in a hospital most of the time. My repeated experience in local hospitals is that the doctors swan about like they're the second coming and the nurses actually give a shit.
