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2016 explainer…
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-gas-supplies-crisis-mps-warn-a7362286.html
The BBC doing a great job this morning of not mentioning this. Britain has to pay more than the rest of Europe because we haven’t replaced the deal that protected us from market rates in this kind of situation.
I can still get Cadburys chocolate in my nearest Carrefour 🙂
Cos they turned the Bristol factory into a housing estate and set up shop in Poland 🙁
Best thing of cycling to work on the Bath 2 Bristol cycle track was the glorious smell of that place wafting over.
Cadburys is now inedible since they were sold and changed the recipe - horrible greasy stuff. Yuck
Originally it was one of the kings of englands thumb
Handy if you are that king. Less so for anyone else.
Reminds me of the USAF project to come up with the perfect cockpit after having a bunch of accidents related to ergonomic issues. They went and measured a bunch of pilots and came up with the perfect average person size. However one of their researchers went back through all those pilots to see how many were close to that perfect size and found zero. Even relaxing the rules bit by bit didnt work until they had thrown away most of the measurements.
That was when they started coming up with adjustable cockpits instead.
Another dose of Brexit reality from Newsnight last night
https://twitter.com/RepBrendanBoyle/status/1440527117482020869?s=20
A USA trade deal can deliver the UK very little. Much of what we might be able to "export" more of to them faces legislation and checks at the state level, not just the federal level. And... it's a long way away (yes, that still REALLY matters).
Brexit impact was predicted:
https://www.vivideconomics.com/casestudy/the-impact-of-brexit-on-the-uk-energy-sector/
Project fear though, obviously:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35887477
Gas storage, why should we have kept that:
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201012/cmselect/cmenergy/1065/106508.htm
A USA trade deal can deliver the UK very little. Much of what we might be able to “export” more of to them faces legislation and checks at the state level, not just the federal level. And… it’s a long way away (yes, that still REALLY matters).
My belief has always been that a US/UK trade deal will be negative for the UK as we've a surplus of trade with the US and no US President would agree to a deal where they weren't the 'winner'.
Not having a deal is really a win economically for the UK and a win politically for anyone anti-Brexit/Tory/Johnson/etc.
At last a brexit benefit! Fireworks Night Cancelled?
Probably because they don't want people taking a leaf out of Fawkes' book and piling them up under the Houses of Parliament.
… it’s a long way away (yes, that still REALLY matters).
Yep the convience of being able to order an extra box of widgets for tommorrow shipped from France or Germany was surprisingly useful.
I picked a new caravan up from Germany with my m8,who was amazed at how quick and easy it was to get over there and bring stuff back. He then used to threaten his German suppliers with "I'll pop over and pick it up" when they were being slow in dispatching.
Now they just don't want the business.
Been a busy one today
Just checking to see how brexit is going
Oh I see petrol rationing 😳
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58645712
They actually mentioned Brexit in there… avoided it in every Radio4 news or current affairs piece on both petrol shortages (we took back control and told the drivers to eff off) and gas supply (IEM just isn’t British enough) stories today.
The BBC is actually getting to the Fawlty Towers ‘don’t mention the war’ point when it comes to the ‘B’ word
Fireworks night cancelled ?
Great - except that upturned cars burn goooooood.
deleted - wrong thread
Be interesting to see if they can carry on gaslighting us when we have no gas, and no lighting.
Brexit may not be the sole, or root cause of many of these problems, but it contributes enough to them to make them bite. Is there anything that has been made easier and cheaper as a result of Brexit?
There was some prime gaslighting going on on Radio 4 this morning.
Grant Shapps made the statement that Brexit wasn't the problem, but instead it was 'providing the solution'
This statement went completely unchallenged
Grant Shapps made the statement that Brexit wasn’t the problem, but instead it was ‘providing the solution’
Well, at least he won't get fired from his ministerial position.
This statement went completely unchallenged
Get out of my head!
https://twitter.com/spittingcat/status/1441292912214429696?s=20
Well, at least he won’t get fired from his ministerial position.
Admitting the Blessed Brexit is anything other than marvellous is the only thing you can get fired for nowadays.
Putting all the other stuff to one side, they are running out of candidates stupid or cynical enough to take a cabinet job now.
What a crock of shit.
Normal 3D from the governemnt
1. Deny there's a problem
2, Distraction. it isn't Brexit it's COVID
3. Delay Don't do anything until it's too late.
SOP for these shysters
Grant Shapps gets to deliver his “Brexit is the final solution” nonsense on @BBCr4today as his final line, unchallenged. Job done. Thank you very much BBC.
No surprise there.
Here, have a unicorn with a rainbow coming out its arse.
the haulage industry might beg to differ with the Shapps appraisal
As the issue isn't so much lack of drivers but utilisation of drivers, ie cabotage, how much of a fix is visas anyway.
Also the issue of where these drivers are coming from, Poland, Afghanistan, etc. How equivalent are licences??
The drivers won’t be coming on zero rights visas. They’ve got the message. We’ve been shouting it at them for 5 years now.
As the issue isn’t so much lack of drivers but utilisation of drivers, ie cabotage, how much of a fix is visas anyway.
Are you sure about that? I keep seeing 100 000+ drivers short ( seems a huge number to me)
25 000 EU nationals who driove HGVs left
EU drivers do not want to cross the channel any more
the government are in a bind, if they give the nod to HGV their immigration policy is in tatters all the other industries will want their waivers.
the government are in a bind, if they give the nod to HGV their immigration policy is in tatters all the other industries will want their waivers.
Twas ever thus. The ridiculous contradictions at the heart of Brexit were 'baked in' from the start.
A small part of me is going to enjoy a certain amount of schadenfreude that this is going unravel, but mostly I am pissed off that 52% voted for this nonsense. 🤷♂️
Are you sure about that? I keep seeing 100 000+ drivers short ( seems a huge number to me)
25 000 EU nationals who driove HGVs left
EU drivers do not want to cross the channel any more
It's complicated, some drivers left, but you also had drivers who came over for a few days/weeks and were doing backloads. So we've lost drivers based in the UK, and drivers based in the EU who worked in the UK.
^^ He should be the Labour leader.
If you don’t eat Turkey for xmas (or any other time) pick anything else we farm, and listen to one of these:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006qj8q/episodes/player
ONS reports that 1 in 6 have difficulty finding essentials but hey ho never mind watch the royal broodmare play some tennis.
The government have folded and are going to allow temporary visas for EU lorry drivers.
Will they come I wonder and which sectors ask for similar next?
If you do eat turkey at christmas ...
Brazilian turkeys for Christmas, anyone?
https://www.theguardian.com/food/2021/sep/24/boris-johnson-asked-for-emergency-food-deal-says-jair-bolsonaro-brazilian-presidentBetween bolsanaro and johnson, I would believe the brazilian.
Why would they come, apparently there are driver shortages across Europe anyway so why would they come back?
They will be using the army soon
Just wrote this on the Petrol thread but it suits over here too:
The issue with that is that it’s not guaranteed that the EU drivers want to come over here. Why would they when the IR35 loophole is closing, they get treated like crap and the drop in the value of the £ makes it less attractive compared to staying at home. Don’t forget the EU has a shortage of drivers too.
As for what sector is next? It'll open the floodgates for lots of lobbying from the restaurants and food factories that lived on this 'cheap' labour. It's the beginning of the unpicking of the Brexit idea and can't come quickly enough.
No point in using the army - most military HGV drivers are reservists and even if not its barely 1/10th of what is needed
No chance EU drivers are going to come here in significant numbers
wonder if they'll reintroduce some form of covid related travel restrictions and start warming to work from home again.
wonder if they’ll reintroduce some form of covid related travel restrictions and start warming to work from home again.
The best move by the government would be to ban the sale of fuel cans and require checks at the pump that people are only refuelling plus charge a minimum of twenty quid a time. That way once the morons have filled their cars up things will calm down till christmas when their once a week drive has emptied the tank that they panicked fuelled to protect.
There was no real problem outside of the rarer fuel types and the possibility a single garage in an area might be empty so best you dont wait until the warning light is on to refuel but sadly the mouth breathers have managed to turn it into a serious problem at least for a couple of days until they find something else to fixate on.
No chance EU drivers are going to come here in significant numbers
Agreed. Or many other key workers. Not this winter anyway.
The Brexit Winter is when even the true believers will begin to realise that Boris Johnson Broke Britain. How many will just shrug and let him double down on a second term of bumbling, promising, and failing? That’s the big question.
More or less covered the driver shortage a few weeks ago.
TL; DR in 2015 the road haulage association were reporting a 50k shortage of drivers. In 2016 60k shortage. I'm not sure if anyone remembers what happened that year but subsequently we're looking at a reduction in EU drivers of ~ 25k or so, and then because covid you lost another 25k newly qualified drivers (no lessons, no tests). Result according to the RHA is 100k deficit.
Why can’t they use trains and vans? Not too keen in hgv’s since one wrote off my car a few weeks ago because I was in his “blind spot”.
Don’t worry Caher, the new fast tracking for HGV drivers (no longer having to work your way up the classes, gaining experience on the way) paired with a relaxation of driving hours rules (getting drivers working longer hours to make up for a lack of drivers) will make the roads safer for all of us… or the opposite. Another Brexit bonus.
Why can’t they use trains and vans? Not too keen in hgv’s since one wrote off my car a few weeks ago because I was in his “blind spot”.
Making greater use of trains would be great both for the environment and probably the road network. However it would need a shedload of investment and design to get it capable and would be sod all use for the specialist lorry drivers.
As for vans I am not overly convinced having several badly driven vans is much better than one badly driven hgv.
Why can’t they use trains and vans?
You still have to get the goods from the train depots to the customers and a rigid truck can do 3x the work of a van per day, especially when it comes to palletised and caged loads. A Mercedes Sprinter will take 2 pallets per trip where a rigid truck can take 12-20 depending on it's spec. The work I've done for the last month (delivering specialist paper to printers so not an essential service but still big business) would be impossible in vans. Driving 10 tonnes over 15-20 pallets takes one truck but would be 5 or more vans and drivers. Economies of scale favour larger vehicles almost every time.
How’s the supply chain for Brussel Sprouts looking?
I wouldn’t mind a beans on toast Xmas myself, it’s not everyone’s cup of tea though.
The Brexit Winter is when even the true believers will begin to realise that Boris Johnson Broke Britain. How many will just shrug and let him double down on a second term of bumbling, promising, and failing? That’s the big question.
It's a sub-question to the biggest one of all (and the only one that really matters). How many shortages, price hikes and reductions in living standards will people put up with before enough of the dunces who voted for this are forced to admit their error.
I'm enjoying all the 'definitely not Brexit' cack-handed 'reasoning' these chumps go through to avoid facing the reality their racism/xenophobia has created.
🤷♂️
I definitely don't want everyone panic buying art - NicksArtStuff.com
Okay, limited to 15 paintings each as long as you say you are from STW and either did, didn't or abstained from voting for or against Brexit
Why can’t they use trains and vans? Not too keen in hgv’s since one wrote off my car a few weeks ago because I was in his “blind spot”.
Next time, stay out of his blindspot.
Before you have a pop at me, I spent 30 years on motorbikes and one of the key ways to 'survive' is to ensure you're seen - therefore you stay out of 'blindspots'.
You can't use trains as , remember, you don't like them-.. the network is old and you all moan about HS2
I'm always intrigued by this notion of short term visas... as I recall the agriculture ones aren't free , and I'm not sure there will be a queue of people to pay £244 quid for the right to work in an unfriendly country for a couple of hundred quid a week
The visa issue is a bit if a red herring. We all know that very few EU drivers will want to come over towork here for a few months, the government knows it too. What they've done now is do something so that when the issues continue they can say that they tried to tackle the problem but it's for industry to now make work. The fact that they helped created the problem and have made it very hard to fix will be lost in all the spin and guff that is to come.
We all know that very few EU drivers will want to come over towork here for a few months
Depends on the coin.
And where you get em from, they could recruit further afield 🙂
tjagain
Full MemberAre you sure about that? I keep seeing 100 000+ drivers short ( seems a huge number to me)
I think this throws people a lot, it's the same reason we keep hearing "the EU has a driver shortage". We've had a massive driver shortage for years, and growing by 10000 a year give or take, and it was always going to be a problem- it just hadn't reached crisis levels before. So we wouldn't need to fill the entire shortfall to get things back to pre-crisis operation and just-about-managing. (kind of like GPs, nurses etc- just being short isn't a disaster, there's a level of shortage that you can manage for quite a long time, and so inevitably a certain sort of government or management does exactly that- kick it down the road. But it makes the eventual crash worse, because you have years of burn-out, loss of goodwill, and years of showing people why not to enter the profession)
Except for brexit obviously, which hasn't just taken drivers out of the system, it's also delivered a huge knock to the entire supply network. But now we need more drivers than we needed pre-brexit, as well as the fact that brexit reduced the number of drivers. So even if we could magic the driver numbers back to 2016, that wouldn't necessarily be enough.
But of course the government can't admit that anything about brexit is bad or difficult, so any time there's a bad or difficult thing that absolutely needs to be handled, they will always ignore it and dodge it. And god forbid it's a problem that isn't just brexit, but that they've been being warned about every year for the best part of a decade, that's the most ignored and dodged of all.
Not that this one really had a fix. Well, it did, it's just that they had to start in about 2012.
Very well put
5,500 Poultry workers also now allowed a short term visa till 24th December.
Boris saves Christmas!
Or will he?...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58694004
British Chamber of Commerce president Baroness McGregor-Smith said the changes were the "equivalent of throwing a thimble of water on a bonfire", as it would "not be enough to address the scale of the problem".
Maybe if the government declared there definitely wasn't a book supply crisis people might panic buy books, read more, learn to think and stop buying into all the Tory/media bollocks
Maybe if the government declared there definitely wasn’t a book supply crisis people might panic buy books, read more, learn to think and stop buying into all the Tory/media bollocks
I'm stealing that.
Interesting he sneaked the poultry workers through as well as the drivers. I'm thinking care workers next?
I’m thinking care workers next?
A care workers not just for Christmas.
It’s just a panicked attempt to try and stop the flood of ‘winter of discontent’ stories in the news.(He probably really fears these more than anything as a lot of his blue rinse base remember those times)
Empty shelves at Christmas and not having the bins collected with sky high gas/lecccy bills cannot happen.
His reign is built on fantasy and as seen by the non-shortages of petrol is very susceptible to quickly falling apart if he loses the narrative.
How many will just shrug and let him double down on a second term of bumbling, promising, and failing? That’s the big question.
My family members ( not close) who are brexiteers when challenged blame it all on covid / the EU - however they have stopped posting pro brexit stuff so I think in their heads they know its a huge eff up but are too invested in it to say so publicly
they will continue to vote tory no matter what
Quite amusing watching the Andrew Marr show this morning with Marr interviewing the EU Commissionaire with the derelict West Pier as a backdrop.
Premier Icon
kelvin
Full MemberHow’s the supply chain for Brussel Sprouts looking?“
They’re not called that any more - they’re known as ‘freedom fruit’ now.
(Rotting in a field near you soon…)
blame it all on covid / the EU
Imagine if the EU offered to let is stay in the single market and customs union, as non-members, for up to an additional two years, so that we could all deal with Covid without also simultaneously having to rearrange our supply chains and adjust to all the additional bureaucratic overheads at speed.
My family members ( not close) who are brexiteers when challenged blame it all on covid / the EU – however they have stopped posting pro brexit stuff so I think in their heads they know its a huge eff up but are too invested in it to say so publicly
they will continue to vote tory no matter what
My Brexity parents have finally grasped the damage that the vote, and the piss poor planning to deal with the result have done. They've always known Boris was an arse but "anyone but Corbyn".
My dad has admitted that he wants an alternative to vote for, but he isn't convinced Starmer/Labour are it.
Let's stop beating around the bush. Do we reckon this is still valid?
Let’s stop beating around the bush. Do we reckon this is still valid?
Yes, but the UK needs to be fixed first.
I think the french would veto the UK coming back into the EU and others might. I think many folk underestimate how angry many EU leaders are with the UK for years of mucking them about
Seems unlikely. Business is business.
I think the French would welcome the UK back in once it has broken up, or become a federal group of nations, but not with the scale and power the UK government in Westminster had in the EU as a single centrally controlled unit before Brexit.