Brexit 2020+

How do you measure the productivity of a teacher? We’re a service led economy; so much harder to measure productivity compared to manufacturing focused economies.

Yup. And at the other end of the scale, the 5250 Amazon employees in Luxembourg officially make 8.4m euros a year each in income, because sales across europe including the UK are funnelled through there to avoid tax. All those sales and warehouse staff and drivers and factories in the UK? Not very productive. Those accountants and executives in Luxembourg? Hilariously productive.

(and yet weirdly they declare a loss in Luxembourg)

By most metrics, low paid workers’ wages have fallen drastically over the years. And yet inflation still happened.

You misunderstand, I'm not saying that falling wages prevents inflation, but raising them might. Inflation had happened in recent years but it's best historically very low - borderline too low in fact.

Loads of things affect inflation, however raising wages of the lowest paid *without other measures* is likely to raise prices for everything (because the low paid workers work to produce or provide the things) which is inflation, but the money will be siphoned off to the pockets of the already well off.

I just love "lefties" arguing against raising low paid workers wages

Everyones wages have not been dropping - only the low and middle earners. rich folk are taking far more share of the nations wealth

Worried about the inflationary effect of raising low paid wages? TAx the rich more!

The rich will just finds ways around it as they are not in the PAYE system like most of us.

One of the things that may have helped is to have heavily governed the housing market as rent/mortgage is too big a ratio of a persons income and spending money on rent/mortgage is not really helping the overall economy.

I would have put a max increase on a house sale price of 2% a year meaning that a £50K house purchased 20 years ago could only be sold for max of £75K today rather than the £150-200K it is probably selling for.

I just love “lefties” arguing against raising low paid workers wages

Who has?

Loads of things affect inflation, however raising wages of the lowest paid *without other measures* is likely to raise prices for everything (because the low paid workers work to produce or provide the things) which is inflation, but the money will be siphoned off to the pockets of the already well off.

I'll agree with this, not sure what the best "other measures" would be though

I just love “lefties” arguing against raising low paid workers wages

I hope you're not aiming that me because that's very specifically not what I'm arguing for.

I’ve just pointed out the real world economics of running a hospitality business, so it’s not me either

Molgrips - thats exactly what you said

colp - if the economics of running a business do not allow them to pay wages to attract staff the wages are too low and if that means prices are too low yo have to raise prices. You cannot have any business without staff

Raising low paid wages does not drive inflation much anyway.

wages to attract staff

Which staff? You can’t just pay more and magic up the right staff. These sectors should pay more. And they should be mandated to by the government (so that any competitive advantage from paying less is removed). That won’t result in the right people being magicked up from no where. How much would you want to spend the next few months in Herefordshire on the fruit farms? Could you step in to be chef at a 50 covers pub in Nethy Bridge?

We seem to have a mental block about paying more for goods and services in order to pay a decent wage. Maybe some businesses wouldn't survive, that's market saturation maybe.

I'll pay more for decent products and services if it means the staff get a fair wage, especially if its local to me as well. They will spend their money locally as well, and pay more tax into the system.

It's a leap of faith and culture change that really needs to happen.

I’ll pay more for decent products and services if it means the staff get a fair wage,

I do my best to do this. I don't buy from tax cheats, I don't buy from anti union companies, I do buy from local small buisnesses where I can

Could you step in to be chef at a 50 covers pub in Nethy Bridge?

Pub grub maybe. fine dining no way jose!

I’ll pay more for decent products and services if it means the staff get a fair wage, especially if its local to me as well. They will spend their money locally as well, and pay more tax into the system.

That is dependant on how much spare money you have though, if you are one of the workers on minimum wage you don't have the luxury of paying more and will take the cheapest option you can.
So bit of a vicious circle in that the low waged are buying the cheapest stuff (out of necessity) so will never remove the low wage/low cost that they are impacted by.

"The cheapest stuff" tends to be grown or made abroad though, so is less effected by wage rates amongst the low paid here (and I repeat the minimum wage should be higher here) so inflation for goods bought by the lowest paid is more impacted by the value of the pound, the cost and hassle of importing, and low wage rates in other countries.

Could you step in to be chef at a 50 covers pub in Nethy Bridge?

Pretty irrelevant as there's no accommodation/housing for staff anyway.

Accommodation included/provided. Ready to start? I wouldn't make it past the first meal...

As well as paying more (and that should be happening), you still need to recruit from a wide geographical area. That there are unemployed people in the area doesn't magically fill gaps in the workforce, whether you are short of chefs, fruit pickers... or nurses. Telling EU workers they aren't welcome isn't going to suddenly provide local workers who want to, and are ready to, and are able to, fill roles.

if the economics of running a business do not allow them to pay wages to attract staff the wages are too low

That's a rather one dimensional way of looking at it, what about other factors such as:

Seasonal so low security or short term.

Cost of child care

Cost of public transport

Lack of public transport

Established family roots (partner already has a job for example)

You are completely ignoring these factors and probably a load more. They may not apply in central Edinburgh but they certainly do in rural areas (and even not so rural areas like Largs). If you were to pay enough to overcome these issues then nobody would pay the prices you charge except the genuinely well off who probably aren't interested in holidaying in a has been seaside town with ropey weather when they could go abroad for the same money.

they could go abroad for [s]the same[/s] a lot less money.

FTFY

Pub grub maybe.

I genuinely doubt it TBH. Given that you have no qualifications, no experience,  no idea of stock ordering, rotation, prep, or owt like that.

they could go abroad for the same a lot less money.

FTFY

Yep especially if your after a beer and beach holiday.

I genuinely doubt it TBH. Given that you have no qualifications, no experience, no idea of stock ordering, rotation, prep, or owt like that.

Low pay doesn’t always equate to low skill 🙂

Some quick mental maths based on my old business (cafe in Cheshire).
To set staff wages to somewhere between £15 to £20 per hour would put for instance a cappuccino around £4. I’d have needed to add over 30% to most of my prices.

Dunno when you were last in Cheshire Col, but cappuccinos are generally about 4 quid here.
🙂

Its all very well us arguing on the hypothetical effect of inflation on raising wages, but this is a thread about Brexit, apparently

So, given that we have a Brexiteer Tory government in power, do we think that they are looking at this problem and thinking:

a) This is an ideal opportunity to raise the wages of those lower paid, and also to train up our workforce to fill the positions vacated by Eastern Europeans

or

b) This is an ideal opportunity to slash working conditions, now we're free of EU regulation, as we've just temporarily (yeah, right) done with lorry drivers, and also why are we paying people unemployment benefit when theres fruit that needs picking?

I've just got no idea which option they'll take.

Have you?

Does option “b” include freezing the pay of everyone in the public sector, especially the lower paid, and reducing Universal Credit to make low paid jobs seem more reasonable than the alternative (trying to survive on punitively low levels of benefits)? If so, I guess that’s the path they’ll take…

Dunno when you were last in Cheshire Col, but cappuccinos are generally about 4 quid here.

Damn! Now you tell me!

If so, I guess that’s the path they’ll take…

Which kind of renders the last few pages of bickering somewhat pointless

We all know what they’ll do

Ironically for a Tory government, they certainly won’t be leaving it to ‘the market’ as that would most likely result in wage increases, but then this isn’t really a Tory government at all, is it?

Am I the only one who wants to see a Hell's Kitchen with TJ and Gordon?

I think there’s a good documentary to be had with Uncle TJ opening a 100 covers restaurant in Windermere where he pays his recently unemployed staff from Workington 20 quid an hour

Jezza’s Rezza

I’ll get Alan to pitch it….

😃

The latest is that problems with the ‘oven-ready’ EU deal, negotiated, signed and hailed as a glorious victory by Lord Frost and Boris Johnson are all apparently Theresa Mays fault

You couldn’t make it up

https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1413630989751013379?s=21

A sobering assessment of this utter shambles from the FT

https://twitter.com/ellyuno/status/1413673114895110147?s=21

This is an ideal opportunity to raise the wages of those lower paid, and also to train up our workforce to fill the positions vacated by Eastern Europeans

Which is why I said earlier they'd f**** up because if their plan was to reduce wages then you don't do that by creating a massive labour shortage.

Ironically for a Tory government, they certainly won’t be leaving it to ‘the market’ as that would most likely result in wage increases, but then this isn’t really a Tory government at all, is it?

Can you explain how a government holds down wages when there's near full employment and a massive labour shortage? It's a simple supply and demand problem, and no amount of government intervention can create a supply of labour without immigration.

Well the whole fantasy of Brexit has been based on ridiculous ‘cakism’

This is no different

I’m sure they’ll fully expect to end immigration while holding down wages.

How?

Well what they’ve done with HGV drivers would seem to point the way. Change the regulations to enable employers to force their employees to work longer hours

I expect we’ll be seeing an awful lot more of that type of thing in their ‘bonfire of red tape’

That’s the whole point of Brexit, no matter what nationalist bullshit they sold to the flag-waving hard-of-thinking

Can you explain how a government holds down wages

By lowering wages (in real terms) in the public sector, and reducing the value of benefits (in real terms), and by making people in the private sector seek (elusive) safety, security and good working conditions rather than demand higher wages… which you do by eroding workers rights and forcing a “rebalancing of the economy” at speed through the deliberate creation of chaos and upheaval in many sectors at once.

Wel they have created an under resourced, inflation driven, isolated economy.

It will not prosper despite the smoke and mirrors.

I’ll give it a year, tops, before we get IDS or one of his ilk saying that people can’t expect to be ‘dependent on benefits’ while their are vacant jobs that need filling

Put your house on it

Don’t fancy pulling pints of Fosters in Wetherspoons?

Tough! Get your arse behind that bar or you can forget about your benefits.

What Binners just said.

I worked in the UK hospitality industry for 20 years, till I moved back to France in 2017. Wages are only one part of the problem for British people. Unsociable hours are a bigger issue. Very few British people want to work on a Saturday night when their mates are going out.
And to be fair to the debate, finding good chefs in France this year is very difficult. With Covid a lot of experienced hospitality staff have changed career and don't want to go back. It is not just a UK problem, but Brexit certainly is not helping.

Molgrips – thats exactly what you said

Mate, please slow down and read better. I said that simply raising minimum wage *without any other controls* would probably drive inflation.

For the avoidance of any doubt, I am in favour of higher wages AND AT THE SAME TIME other controls. Becaue I don't want anyone to be poor. Perhaps print this out and file it so you can bring it out next time you think I sound a bit Tory.

Can you explain how a government holds down wages

By setting a minimum wage on which people base wages and then build a business case on. And before you know it businesses aren't viable if they pay any more.

MOlgrips - that last statement is arse backwards. Its precisely the opposite of that.

Explain?

Without a minimum wage many business are unviable without paying lower and lower wages… because that’s what their competitors will be doing. Of course, your are right molgrips, that in many sectors paying much above the minimum wage can also be unviable, because competitors are not. Accepting that there will always be people on the minimum wage (or even lower if we didn’t have a minimum) is the first stop to acknowledging that the minimum wage needs to be a real living wage. It currently is not, especially for young workers. It’s either that, or… have a universal basic income [thread well and truly off the rails now… sorry].

acknowledging that the minimum wage needs to be a real living wage

Of course, that's the point. But if you just raise minimum wage on its own elastic costs like housing will just be increased by landlords as much as they can to the point that people minimum wage jobs will still be just about manage to pay them with a lot of compromises and struggles that are ultimately unfair. That's why rent controls are needed; or a huge increase in supply.

Rent is the biggy.

Rent is the biggy.

Social housing (council owned not housing association) while an anathema to my dad in the early 70's helped keep private rents under control. Without a large social housing provision the working poor don't have a prayer. The Tory government of the late 70's started the process of screwing the poor over and this bunch of half-wits are continuing the process.

Let's take back control from the socialist empire, and create a free capital economy where China can invest in key infrastructures..no wait.

My son, his partner and baby are renting their first place as a new family.

Rent and child care costs are killing them.

Both working full time but without my financial help every month they simply don't earn enough to "live".

The place they rent is nearly a £1000 a month and is owned by a guy with over 30 properties in his portfolio. The place is shocking. Its had the absolute minimum money spent on it he can get away with for decades.

And there’s the entire problem

We have an economy where the pay for Labour has been stagnant or falling for a decade, whereas the rewards for capital have gone through the roof.

So if you possess capital assets then the value of those assets will have gone up exponentially, but if you rely on your Labour to pay your bills then it’s stagnated, at best

But guess which one you get taxed on? Capital or Labour?

They’re taking the ****ing piss!

I’m sure, post Brexit, that will all change for the better though

Without a minimum wage many business are unviable without paying lower and lower wages… because that’s what their competitors will be doing.

Race to the bottom.

The place they rent is nearly a £1000 a month and is owned by a guy with over 30 properties in his portfolio. The place is shocking. Its had the absolute minimum money spent on it he can get away with for decades.

Unless you've already got the capital.

Which is exactly what Tiny Tories are all about. Use wealth to enforce the status quo. If you're already rich you deserve it and you deserve more.

Tuppeny ha'penny oneupmanship.

Yay us.

I’m sure, post Brexit, that will all change for the better though

Brexit was always a heist, first and foremost. The holders of capital recognised (rightly) that the UK is living far beyond its means in terms of standard of living vs productivity.

Brexit was about a last chance smash and grab at the last of the postwar consensus before it is diluted away by global economic pressures. The Brexit voting working class have dug their own graves, but because the whole thing was wrapped in a union jack they'll still headbutt you for suggesting they made a balls up.

Fossil fuels are nearly gone. What natural material do you mine next?

Answer = stupidity. In limitless supply and a sound investment.

They’re taking the ****ing piss!

Binners man you need to make your mind up. I completely agree with all of that last post, but earlier you were complaining that the landlords who've bought up all the property in the Lake District can't recruit cheap foreign labour on minimum wage. Presumably if we had wealth taxes as you suggest then all these businesses which can't survive because they can't recruit minimum wage european workers would instead go bust because they can't afford the tax on their properties? You can't have it both ways.

the landlords who’ve bought up all the property in the Lake District can’t recruit

Are we pretending that many businesses/employers aren’t also paying rent?

cheap foreign labour

At some point you’ll work out that it isn’t just about wage levels.

Some do, some don't. Ultimately it's the same problem whether it's the landlord running a business or renting the property to someone else. The tourism industry encourages people to buy up property and then turn it into hotels/pubs/cafes/restaurants/holdiay rentals etc which forces out all the locals which then requires cheap labour from abroad. If the property owners were taxed (as they absolutely should be) on their assets they would pass the price on to renting businesses or customers which would have the same effect as paying staff more. The end result would still be failing businesses who's margins can't absorb the exta costs.

At some point you’ll work out that it isn’t just about wage levels.

He knows. It just doesn't tally with the 'agenda'.

which forces out all the locals which then requiers cheap labour from abroad

The locals who choose to leave, were they all looking to stay and pick raspberries or be a chef? Or be a nurse? People move to make their way in life. “Locals” will not fill all the roles.

People move to make their way in life. “Locals” will not fill all the roles.

Bloody hell how naive. Working class kids don't leave places like the Lake DIstrict because they're seeking their fortune in the land of milk and honey (used to be London, now it's any big city), they do it because they have no choice, and end up in shitholes like Workington and Whiitehaven etc which are nothing more than than white trash ghettoes. Some locals leave, but many will stay if they can afford a roof over their heads, and they are the people who will work in the pubs, cafes and hotels.

They do both. Obviously. Doesn’t mean that those that don’t travel far are ready, able, willing to be a chef. Or pick raspberries.

Salt of the earth white working class heroes can do anything. They just need valuing, man...

A neat little summary on Pitchfork about the state of play for touring musicians and their crews and venues…

https://pitchfork.com/news/the-brexit-touring-crisis-whats-happened-and-whats-next-for-uk-musicians/

@dazh why were EU workers able to do these jobs on minimum wage but UK workers can't?

Answer that if you can.

"@dazh why were EU workers able to do these jobs on minimum wage but UK workers can’t?"

Because they were living 6 to a portacabin?

More answers to follow I'm sure....

Many of the jobs are above minimum wage. But when they are only seasonal they can be far less appealing to “locals” than a “proper job”. Where as seasonal work is exactly what some people are looking for if either only wanting to be away form home for a short time, or wanting to get their first experiences in another country or region they might like to move to later if it clicks for them.

Yeah but everyone in Britain loves work don't thee lad, except the lazy glass backs. Don't know their bloody born.

Single mothers int it. Dole scroungers getting paid more thant the workers like "I know a family downt rode who get 100 quid per kid. They've all got ipones, drive mercs, go on holiday to Magaluf every month and their house is made of flat screen tellies. int prisons they get paid more thant us grafters, play video games all day while smoking bongs and drug dealing on their iphones.

Bloody vegans want everything for free and don't no what reel work is, starring at their ****ing fones all day.

Pounds and ounces I tell thee. The metric martyrs were right, infinitely divisible, none of this French rubbish.

Bring back the birch. Let's get the tanks on streets.

why were EU workers able to do these jobs on minimum wage but UK workers can’t?

UK workers (as in as a full time job) never did a lot of those jobs. A lot (fruit picking) were done by students to get some extra income but not sure what students are doing these days to get extra income but not fruit picking and making beds I guess.

UK students are just getting into more massive debt instead, why fruit pick and knock 3 month's off your 30+ year debt?

Making the cost of studying so high means minimal return jobs have even less value.

Huh, was just googling around from a tangent this thread created.

This is actually pretty smart looking  https://www.agrobot.com/e-series

Robot Strawberry Overlords!

*no I’m not saying all U.K. farmers will solve there problems by buying a not yet even available product. Was just wondering how the technology is progressing. Farms have been reducing labour needs for far longer than I’ve been alive, seems a logical next step.

Lolz @ chestercopperpot

lol @ the most vocal haters of JC's Lab party moaning about high rents and a predatory financial system.

UK workers (as in as a full time job) never did a lot of those jobs. A lot (fruit picking) were done by students to get some extra income but not sure what students are doing these days to get extra income but not fruit picking and making beds I guess.

It's an interesting one - I was brought up in the Fens in the 80s and as teenager/student you spent the summer fruit picking or at the Salvesen processing plant - even a couple of our teachers did it.

Was working out that way a couple of years ago and got chatting to a local guy who was a bit younger than me. He reckoned the it changed in the mid/late 90s - more people expecting to go to uni and make a better life for themselves, just didn't want to come back home in the summer and do those hard physical jobs to get a little money.

His theory was that when grants went and student loans came in (timings may be out to support this) the students just didn't seem to want to do those kind of seasonal jobs, and that's when more Europeans started coming over to do them.

His theory may be very wrong, of course.

I was brought up in the Fens in the 80s

Please tell me you had at least one non-functional car in the front garden a Nissen Hut, and a CB Radio mast?

But when they are only seasonal they can be far less appealing to “locals” than a “proper job”.

Business owners (including agricultural) in their 50s around where I'm from appear to feel entitled to a supply of hard-grafting young-ish people, who already have the know-how/skills to do the job, who will come in on an as-needed basis (even within the season) on short notice while being totally available and reliable, for minimum wage. They wouldn't want their own kids doing that though. The ideal candidate sounds like a dedicated skilled-ish person with low self-worth and no ambition but a strong sense of loyalty, who lives with parents and has no regular expenses, just working for some pocket money.

Business owners (including agricultural) in their 50s around where I’m from appear to feel entitled to a supply of hard-grafting young-ish people, who already have the know-how/skills to do the job, who will come in on an as-needed basis (even within the season) on short notice while being totally available and reliable, for minimum wage. They wouldn’t want their own kids doing that though. The ideal candidate sounds like a dedicated skilled-ish person with low self-worth and no ambition but a strong sense of loyalty, who lives with parents and has no regular expenses, just working for some pocket money.

That sounds like the stories I hear about the tattie howkin' back in the day. Turn up in the morning, you, you, you, you etc. rest bugger off. Work your arse off and get a pittance in return.

Don't get me wrong, I've done the seasonal thing (albeit not as hard graft) as a student and got more than just the money out of it, it just depends what you're doing and where I guess.

totally available and reliable, for minimum wage

Available (seasonally) and reliable (can do the job and don’t head home after the first week)… pretty obvious requirements.

I was brought up in the Fens in the 80s

Please tell me you had at least one non-functional car in the front garden a Nissen Hut, and a CB Radio mast?

Strangely enough, not me (wasn't born there) but my cousins who were.....🤔

Can you hear banjos?

This part of the thread is skirting around the basic point.

Your average Brexiteer wants to benefit from the standard of living derived from cheap(er) foreign labour whilst not being willing to do those jobs themselves or respect the rights of the people doing them. Essentially they regard themselves as exceptional and expect the rest of the world to wait on them hand and foot.

A mate of mine owned a very successful ham processing business. His workforce was largely Eastern European (Polish and Hungarian), pretty happy and lively on the shop floor. They had also organised their own bus from Birmingham to work there (30 miles away). My mate is a fairly 'patriotic' type and every couple of years he would have a pang of guilt about not employing many local folk and recruit some. Almost invariably they turned up late for a few days, then went on the sick, then never reappeared. The deputy manager was a very local bloke who also said "there's no point employing anyone from round here, they all expect money for nothing".

Employers won't pay more for British workers. So we'll end up with deteriorating customer service, standards, quality, productivity etc with rising costs.

If businesses are forced to pay more (on average) for less (on average) They will shy away from investing in plant and machinery. So the erosion of quality will happen via a different means.

If you employ 100 people and you have to raise the hourly rate by £5...

Thats about a million quid per annum (from net unless you hile prices) and probably breaks that business.

I am not defending minimum wage but there are a lot of business models built on minimum wage.

It's not really about minimum wage. It is about 'unit' of work done per £.

If your business becomes 10-20% less efficient overnight you are likely to raise prices, cut back on capex or, perhaps, sell up and cash out.