If Johnson is reinstalled no one (Tory) will dare to attempt to remove him from office.
If he wins, he needs the support of MPs to stay in the post. Support that their constituents will see. After so many of them called from him to step down only this year. His working majority could soon be reduced to very little, and there will be some hard votes to get though this winter. All with a backdrop of the public wanting him out. A short highly negative second period of office awaits him. Day in day out they'll be the noise of people on his own side, and the public at large, asking... "why is he still here?!"
Still think Sunak will win though... but then the "betrayal" and "globalist elite stitch up" narrative will start to swell, damaging the Tories from within and bringing with it a rise of Farrage like outsiders looking to take the Conservative support and vote. All avoidable if Johnson had just stayed out of the picture. Thanks Alex.
Whatever happens this week, it's going to become very difficult for the Tories.
an ernie kelvin truce?
I'll give it 24 hours
(posted 17 hours ago)
(posted 17 hours ago)
I tried the shutting up thing... they just carried on with more posts making the same points and throwing in their ever so unsubtle digs. Is that how it should work?
Is he just angling for PM so he can make the Priv Committee stuff go away? Can't see it working, any vote to do this would effectively be a confidence vote and I'm pretty sure enough MPs would wash their hands of the party at that point.
Day in day out they’ll be the noise of people on his own side, and the public at large, asking… “why is he still here?!”
The main problem will be the standards committee if it lives up to what is being rumoured.
All the old dirt being dusted off and lots of new stuff.
Plus with the investigation on him, which sounds like he will get suspended and can then result in a recall and him being booted out.
If the mp's vote to can the investigation the screams will be deafening and i can't see a bunch of the tories voting for that confiding the blowback after the paterson stupidity
If Johnson is reinstalled no one (Tory) will dare to attempt to remove him from office.
I completely agree with that, but if the standards committee investigation concludes as predicted then he's done.
He'll do his upmost to stop the investigation (as he did while still PM), but I doubt he'll get away with it
With this country at the moment, to predict the future just ask yourself 'what is the most farcical, ludicrous thing that could happen next?" then stick some money on that
He'll get back in again then be booted out again, this time by the standards committee (after trying every trick in the book to stop it). Expect loads of other nonsensical variables to be lobbed into the mix too just for shits and giggles
We are now a banana republic
All of which dramatically decreases his chances of winning against Sunak. I can't see him doing it. I'm not convinced that he will even get the 100 nominations required, despite having some big names behind him.
What is it currently, about 200 Tory MPs declared? So there are potentially 150 undeclared votes floating about. He seems to have 54 official backers (assuming everyone votes the way they say they will 🙂 ) , so he doesn't need a huge swathe of the 150 to get over the line. At which point you have to think there is a fair chance the membership will endorse him.
I reckon if he can get the number of 'officials' up past 70, then the prospect of him winning and handing out ministerial jobs will drag out the remainder he needs.
Still can't fathom why he wants the job, though, unless it's simply to spite Rishi Sunak.
Is there much to be gained ‘arguing’ over which of these dreadful bunch are the better or worse? It’s like deciding which of the four horsemen you’d prefer. None of us have any say in who it will be anyway.
I have a say. My dad is a Conservative member and he's given up on choosing so has let me and my sister decide between us and he'll vote for them if it gets to a Member's Vote.
Still can’t fathom why he wants the job, though, unless it’s simply to spite Rishi Sunak.
It's an interesting question. He is a very thin-skinned and vindictive man though and also in possession of an absolutely ludicrous sense of entitlement. He can't help himself. He's also desperately insecure and needs constant affirmation of his own wonderfulness
If you believe what you read then the unhinged old racists that constitute the constituency associations are leaning on their MPs to nominate Boris, with the threat of deselection if they don't
So there are potentially 150 undeclared votes floating about.
I think his return is inevitable just to put the icing on the cake that is the rolling car crash of Brexit Britain. Johnson is the living embodiment of the the UK's flight from reality into pure 'cakist' fantasy, post 2016.
Still can’t fathom why he wants the job, though, unless it’s simply to spite Rishi Sunak.
Yeah it would make more sense to wait until the Tories are in opposition if he really wants a second crack at the job.
I don't think that he can overrule his ego.
My dad is a Conservative member and he’s given up on choosing so has let me and my sister decide between us
This is promising. If I had voted Conservative at the last election, I would come to the conclusion that I was so dreadfully wrong, that I would never vote again - leave it to the people who know better.
I think Sunak will get it (was there not something about a clear winner and it not making a members vote) If I was a tory MP I would be thinking if I vote for him (clown) he could end up out in weeks and at that point I think the tories would really struggle to fend off a GE (as it is half of the tory MPs will be out of a job come next GE) so really the safe bet is Rishi who is the most likely to see them to a GE in 2 years and will probably reduce the points gap between the 2 parties.
You see, theres your problem right there. You're evaluating this using logic and reasoning. We don't do that in this country any more, particularly not in the Tory party. Haven't done for 6 years or so.
You just have to BELIEVE and vote with your heart, not your head, and everything will be just wonderful
I don’t think that he can overrule his ego.
This. He's just cosplaying Churchill, after all.
was there not something about a clear winner and it not making a members vote
No, if he gets 100 or more he goes into the online ballot vs Sunak, following an 'indicative vote' by MPs. Even though this will show that far more MPs support Sunak, there is still a good chance the members will ignore this, as they did with Truss.
There is some polling (probably dubious), which suggests how the Tories would perform at a GE immediately with the various candidates at the helm. It's still fairly awful for them with Johnson, but not as bad as with the other two. It's possible that some Tory MPs are already pricing in a GE before Christmas, and are looking at the leader who may help them keep their jobs.
So Johnson comes in, kicks the privilege ctte can down the road by a couple of months using his normal Russia Report type tricks, then calls an election after a month of boosterism?
It's hard to game out any scenario which makes sense, but perhaps it does to some of the MPs?
You just have to BELIEVE and vote with your heart, not your head, and everything will be just wonderful
But lets be honest the tories are kidding on they are looking after the country, then they say they are looking after the party (they aren't) so realistically they are down to looking after themselves and the best way to keep their nose in the trough for longest is Rishi, I don't doubt how stupid some MPs are but surely the writing is on the wall.
I don't think he can delay the investigation, it doesn't answer to him, it answers to parliament.
Plus if he does try to interfere what are the chances the whole lot of evidence gets leaked
Heres an interesting list of the Tory MPs who resigned to bring him down and what they said about him at the time, and then the statements they're making now, assuring him of their nominations and their support
Black is white. Up is down. Night is day...
https://twitter.com/ConorGogarty/status/1584080730342428672?s=20&t=iq63S6VM89uTgtHloWazFA
Johnson (please, please all stop calling the **** 'Boris' like he's some sort of lovable rogue that's everybody's best mate - that's what got us into this situation) is a **** - cut him in half (it would take quite the knife) and it would say that all the way through. Thing is - he is what he is - a shit bag of the highest order. He always was a ****, way before he was a public figure, and he'll remain a **** to the day he dies. No, the truly horrific part of this whole current narrative is not Johnston but the slimey arsewipes that want him back. Not for the good of the country, not because they see his acumen and incredible intellect as the the only way to save the nation from financial disaster but because they represent a constituency of morons that might just vote for him (clearly that's not how the system works...but it's how the system works) to keep them in a job.
If he gets back in......there are 60 ministers and parliamentary private secretaries that resigned their positions in order to ease him out - when that was the thing to do to keep their job and maybe, just maybe, a whiff of moral consciousness overcame them for a brief moment. Every single one of them that accepts a role in a new Johnson government deserve everything coming their way. Personal and profession hounding turned up to 11. They have so many opportunities between now and then to not cross that line that if they do I see no reason why they should not be targets of extreme vilification.
edit - timely list from Binner's to identify those worthy of vilification.
In other news - assuming you want a non tory government next time we get a say - who is best PM to get us there without completely ****ing us all over in the meantime? I thought Truss could have been that person, but clearly that was a step too far into the abyss.
then calls an election after a month of boosterism?
That might be a good strategy under different circumstances but currently the Labour lead in the polls are simply to great to be overcome in a month.
The last 10 opinion polls have given Labour more than half of the total vote. The latest YouGov poll gives Labour a 37% lead and puts the Tories on 19%
The Tories are certain to lose any general election any time soon whoever the Tory leader. And imo they will almost certainly lose in 2 years time. Things can only get worse.
That might be a good strategy under different circumstances but currently the Labour lead in the polls are simply to great to be overcome in a month.
Who said anything about overcoming them? This is about minimising the losses. Maybe Boris could get the incoming Labour majority down to two figures.
Who knows? Trying to second-guess these ****ers is almost impossible. It's equally possible the party is doing this because it is just addicted to all the late night meetings and febrile plotting and backstabbing.
I don’t think he can delay the investigation, it doesn’t answer to him, it answers to parliament.
Not the investigation, but Parliamentary votes can control the timing of any debate/sanction. Those with long memories may remember that the ****er managed to get Parliament pro-rogued when it suited him. He just fends it off for a few weeks and then dissolves Parliament for a GE.
He’s also desperately insecure and needs constant affirmation of his own wonderfulness
Doesn't bode well for assembling a government of all the talents. By it's very nature the best cabinet to see us out of this (admittedly it's thin pickings) would by it's very nature be the worst for Johnson's ego.
Atleast Putin will be happy the UK is in convulsions again.
https://twitter.com/RussellScott1/status/1583723671784259585?t=Wjz4frxhIqVKJjwIOT3d6A&s=19
Interesting read...
If Boris becomes PM again the energy crisis will probably continue for a while because of his support for sanctions. He will probably be very vocal again on this front to deflect his bad decision. I doubt Sunak or Mordaunt will have the guts to deal with the sanctions but simply to sweep it under the carpet or let it go quietly ...
Therefore, whoever become the PM in the next GE will need to find ways to deal with the energy crisis, assuming the sanctions are still in place. The rest of the issues are secondary.
None of the Tory contenders will do a thing about the energy needs of this country. They haven’t for the last 12 years so they’re not about to start now
The Tory membership hate renewables so that won’t be happening and fracking and the North Sea licences are a pointless distraction rather than any realistic attempt to actually do something serious about it
Any price caps will be the same as Trusses, simply underwriting the profiteering of energy companies with taxpayers money
None of the Tory contenders will do a thing about the energy needs of this country. They haven’t for the last 12 years so they’re not about to start now
The energy crisis is at the top of list now and unavoidable.
I don't see any immediate solution other than "buying" time by paying off (subsidies the users) energy firms that are still able to supply them, while finding a solution.
Even if heavy investment is poured into creating self sufficient energy supply immediately that will take a while. (how long does it take to build nuclear plant?) While the rest of renewable energy is not here nor there other than putting pressure onto the masses, which of course will backfire as well.
Probably a subject for a different thread
One things for sure… Boris Johnson isn’t trying to get back into number ten so that he can solve the energy crisis and the NIMBYism of the Tory faithful won’t allow for any realistic solutions
Who said anything about overcoming them? This is about minimising the losses. Maybe Boris could get the incoming Labour majority down to two figures.
It would be damn sporting of Boris if he were to selflessly sacrifice himself for the good of the party, might say a Tory loyalist.
However I doubt whether Johnson's ego would allow him to contemplate considering losing a general election not too badly as a proud achievement.
I don’t think he can delay the investigation, it doesn’t answer to him, it answers to parliament.
I believe he can, by asking the Commons to vote on a motion "unrefering" himself to the committee. He'd have to 3 line whip his MPs to win and even then there's still some who might have some principles and risk losing the whip....
Does anyone still believe that he'll have 100 backers by tomorrow? There's no reason to hold back for anyone thinking of supporting him, unless they're hedging their bets and think they've a chance of securing a cabinet job in whichever regime wins. Johnson knows that momentum builds, so if he's not been able to persuade people to publicly back him by now, they're not going to declare for him tomorrow morning- if they supported him they'd be public by now. Ergo, he won't make 100, and will skulk off without having ever publicly asserted he was intending to contest.
Which only goes to show it's just about the ego, not the party or the country. ****ing loser.
If he wins and becomes pm again there will be a huge amount of the party mp's that didn't back him and would have nothing to lose other than getting shot of him properly by refusing to support any motion like that.
Plus it would be unbelievably unpopular and the headlines will push the tories even further behind as that would be seen as being worse than the paterson thing.
I think we will have an election either way
I'm suspecting everyone has pulled out and is now letting him a free run at it.
At least, that's what the end of days style thunder and lightning outside feels like.......
It would be damn sporting of Boris if he were to selflessly sacrifice himself for the good of the party, might say a Tory loyalist.
However I doubt whether Johnson’s ego would allow him to contemplate considering losing a general election not too badly as a proud achievement.
You're right, trying to work out why the hell he is doing this leads to madness. It defies all logic.
At the moment no-one has a clue whether he genuinely wants the job, is trying to knife Rishi, or just getting his ego stroked and currently preparing to pull the rug out in a comedy fashion under the dozens of mug MPs who've lined up to endorse him.
Loved this on twitter::
He's incapable of pulling out, hence his 7 kids (or whatever it is)
At the moment no-one has a clue whether he genuinely wants the job, is trying to knife Rishi, or just getting his ego stroked and currently preparing to pull the rug out in a comedy fashion under the dozens of mug MPs who’ve lined up to endorse him.
It keeps people talking about him, if he had ruled himself out we wouldn't still be talking about him.
Even if he has already decided to throw his hat in the ring tomorrow morning keeping everyone guessing until the last minute, will he won't he, is all part of the Boris drama.
It inflates his importance, ever the showman he needs to be in the limelight, centre stage. It is a strategy that has served him well through life.
Having said that it is at least a persona which he himself created, going back to his Eton College days apparently.
His rival however has had to use his considerable wealth to purchased his image and persona, tailored for his own personal needs, from a professional image-maker:
https://www.tatler.com/article/who-is-cass-horowitz-rishi-sunak-special-advisor-social-media-guru
Meet Cass Horowitz: The man behind Rishi Sunak ‘the brand’
One thing’s for certain, he’s doing a slick job marketing Rishi. The latest YouGov poll shows by 59 per cent to 11 per cent that people think Mr Sunak is doing a good job, apparently the best rating for a chancellor since Gordon Brown
Johnson is out.
Sunak is our next PM
Any reference for that?
And...he's pulled out!
****ing hilarious, show me the looks on his supporters' faces, particularly JRM!
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1584273884920287233
Yes, he deffo got 102 supporters...
Where do you get that from?
#keepborisout \o/
Unless, he's a grievance to Sunak and he convinces people to get behind Mourdant. There's 17hrs to go yet. But yes that looks likely.
Looks like I'm not moving to Scotland..... Happy, and sad....
My mrs got a notification on her phone saying he was out, dunno where it was from
