It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that Wakeford won’t be the last Red Wall Tory to defect.
I'm not sure I agree on MPs defecting. I mean, from the point of view of sticking the knife into Johnson, yeah great but it's a bit of a kick to the electorate. In fact, I think it's incredibly disingenuous - he's defecting because he can see that as a Tory, he'll probably be voted out at the next election which seems a bit of self-serving move. However, people voted for him as a Tory, they wanted a Tory candidate to represent them in parliament.
And now, having voted Tory, and got a Tory, they've been switcheroo'd to Labour.
It's like going into a restaurant, ordering steak and then, half way through your steak dinner, it's whipped away and replaced with a pizza.
the Tories know it’s also enough time to get a new face in now, ride out the good vibes from the end of the Pandemic as and when it arrives
As Molls has pointed out, if you look at the foreseeable future, good vibes and LOLs are going to be in very, very short supply both financially and politically.
Factor in that the candidates touted to take over from the fly-tipped sofa have all the combined 'charm' of a rabid Rottweiler, mixed with the intellectual dynamism of a cup-a-soup, you can see the reason why Johnson is still in place.
it’s a bit of a kick to the electorate
You’ve seen the current polling/projections in his constituency, yes? Arguably he’s listened to his electorate, if they have changed their minds and told him so, rather than kick them and tell them he’s not for budging from what they wanted a few years ago.
it’s a bit of a kick to the electorate
You have to remember that Bury South was something of an oddity at the last election. There was a very specific issue that led to the result at the last GM. Or, more accurately, a specific person...
It's normally safe as houses for Labour, but it's not referred to as Manchester's kosher moat for nothing. It has an enormous Jewish population (one of the largest in Europe) and I know the usual suspects will now set about me for pointing this uncomfortable fact out but... and this may shock you... they weren't massively enamoured with Jeremy Corbyn. Who knows why?
I think the polling just published today is more reflective of the constituency than the result of the last election and you're probably best looking at as more a judgement on local opinions to the labour party, pre and post Magic Grandad
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1483774295956496389?s=20
A new PM bounce tends to last a year or so - so with the election more than 2 years away the feelgood of a new pm will be gone by election time
Paul Waugh here reporting that "Labour are taking other Tory MPs thinking of defecting".
A new PM bounce tends to last a year or so – so with the election more than 2 years away the feelgood of a new pm will be gone by election time
Which means it’s new leader this summer, and then an election within 12 months of that, or give Johnson another year and replace him with a year to go, or… probably the best result for the opposition parties, let him hang on all the way to the next election to try and prove he can win twice. And I suspect he’ll go for that last option if his MPs let him.
and then an election within 12 months of that,
Can they still do that with the fixed term parliament thing?
I'm sure this'll get lost in a million other posts but how does that guy who just defected square with the guy he ousted? If I was the original MP I'd be mighty peeved he'd stolen my job twice. Which one of them goes forward for Labour at the next election?
Have they run out of dead cats yet?
I’m sure this’ll get lost in a million other posts but how does that guy who just defected square with the guy he ousted?
He didnt oust anyone as such. The previous MP resigned from Labour (either due to his disgust about the antisemitism or due to him being suspended for sexual harassment) and stood as an independent but did actually suggest people vote for Wakeford.
It could be awkward though with the candidate from last time round especially if she was selected by the local party.
Can they still do that with the fixed term parliament thing?
Fixed parliament terms has always been a load of nonsense.
It had two official ways of calling an early election namely a successful vote of no confidence or a 2/3 majority options to trigger a early election
However the 2/3 approach was pointless since you could go for plan b and pass a act for a general election which would only need the standard majority. As happened in 2019.
I think there is a risk of overanalysing Wakeford's flip to Labour.
He won his seat with a tiny margin of 402 votes. He will lose the next election if he remains Tory. He is in a £80k or so per annum job, he is simply protecting his income. Nothing more noble than that.
Can they still do that with the fixed term parliament thing?
The Fixed Term Parliament Act simply requires a two-thirds majority vote in the HoC to ignore the time limit and hold an election anyway.
Should really be called the Fixed Term Parliament Unless the Government Fancies an Election Act.
I’m not sure I agree on MPs defecting. I mean, from the point of view of sticking the knife into Johnson, yeah great but it’s a bit of a kick to the electorate. In fact, I think it’s incredibly disingenuous – he’s defecting because he can see that as a Tory, he’ll probably be voted out at the next election which seems a bit of self-serving move. However, people voted for him as a Tory, they wanted a Tory candidate to represent them in parliament.
And now, having voted Tory, and got a Tory, they’ve been switcheroo’d to Labour.
Be aware that calling for a by-election, which many are currently doing online will lead to one when MP's 'lose' the Whip - and this will mean that they are 100% under the control of their Party. So even less likely to disagree with the party line, no matter how crackers.
So even less likely to disagree with the party line, no matter how crackers.
It depends on how it was set up eg if you chose to switch parties then auto byelection but if have the whip withdrawn than allow the constituency to do run a recall vote.
Given the probability people voted for the party and not the MP I do think it is right to give them a choice if the person decides the party is no longer the one for them.
He's going to survive, therefor proving that acting with impunity is OK as a long as a couple of lines of coke gets you through PMQ's.
Not a chance he will survive to the end of his term. More revelations to come yet and he has lied in parliament and the proof is there
Not a chance he will survive to the end of his term.
In the literal sense. I thought he was having a stroke half-way through PMQs this afternoon.
I thought this was an interesting little twist given today's games.
https://www.burytimes.co.uk/news/18079325.ivan-lewis-urges-people-vote-conservative-beat-corbyn/
Not a chance he will survive to the end of his term. More revelations to come yet and he has lied in parliament and the proof is there
Unlikely that he'll last to the end of his term but as Kryton says above, he'll be there for a while yet. He's got through this round battered but still standing - helped enormously by a very onside Speaker. I can't help but think that if John Bercow was still in the Speaker's Chair, Boris would be significantly worse off!
The lies in parliament have all been very carefully caveated and worded. "implicitly" was used a lot. He's also not apologised - if he did then it would be an admission of guilt but all the non-apologies have been very carefully crafted too. Maybe there's an element of giving him enough rope and he'll hang himself...?
Can they still do that with the fixed term parliament thing?
The Fixed Term Parliament Act simply requires a two-thirds majority vote in the HoC to ignore the time limit and hold an election anyway.
Should really be called the Fixed Term Parliament Unless the Government Fancies an Election Act.
doesnt there have to be cross party support for this , even with the massive tory majority. I calculate that even with DUP support, the tories don't have two thirds
It was only the hubris of Swinson and Corbyn effectively being bounced into it that led to the 2019 general election.
Labour can't get too cocky even now as their support is mainly down to tory voters deserting the party with BJ in charge
I thought he was having a stroke half-way through PMQs this afternoon.
Just heard Radio4 PM’s clipping of this… managed to select the only answer where he sounded like he was on top of things. Very interesting when you’ve heard the whole exchange, where he mostly sounded lost and vacuous.
I calculate that even with DUP support, the tories don’t have two thirds
No because you dont need it.
2019 happened with a separate act which only needed the standard majority.
He’s going to survive
This week at least. Gray report likely middle of next week I think to build up the public anger again. If he survives that then he's good till after may elections I guess
On the subject of the 2019 tory intake - my MP, Mark Jenkinson, is still very much on-board with Johnson. His twitter feed is entertaining to say the least! Photo ops with Priti etc. Worth a look for the responses!
My suspicion is the whips definitely have something on him 😂😂😂
Jenky is also ex-ukip so he was very excited to get on GB News with the other nut-jobs.
I agree he will be there for a while yet - probably till after may - but he has lost both the right and the left of his party for different reasons and the polls look really bad. But because he will not resign he will limp on dead man walking causing more and more damage until his party kick him out
doesnt there have to be cross party support for this , even with the massive tory majority. I calculate that even with DUP support, the tories don’t have two thirds
Yes but to vote against it is a tricky calculation.
To be up in parliament saying "the Tories are terrible, Labour would do a much better job", and then, given the opportunity to have a general election, turn round and say "actually no you're alright, why not stay in power for another 2 years" isn't the best look...
doesnt there have to be cross party support for this , even with the massive tory majority. I calculate that even with DUP support, the tories don’t have two thirds
It was only the hubris of Swinson and Corbyn effectively being bounced into it that led to the 2019 general election.
No party of opposition will turn down the chance for an election, you are either saying 'but I'll lose', or offering the government an endorsement to carry on doing a good job.
It's why the FTP act is a waste of time, as it still allows the government to choose the timing of a snap election.
The only person controlling BJ's fate is Cummings.
His revenge has been sweet indeed.
He'll play this out until he's inflicted the maximum torment and utterly humiliated him.
Fun, isn't it? 🙂
All the sinners have cast their first stone now. They are all out in the open.
Problem is that Boris Johnson is still the best there is at the moment as a PM.
Non of those from the oppositions have PM quality no matter what qualification they have coz they look like a damn squid.
For those Tories that stick a knife into the back of the PM, hopefully the people will stick one into them.
Labour govt will be a massive disaster if come into power within these two generations, coz most of the lame ducks are still in the party. You need new blood! The current lot are losers. (there are losers in Tories too but Labour has more).
Boris Johnson should stay and have thick skin no matter what until the next election.
The oppositions are biting down like a mad dog to a bone now because they know if Boris is still the party leader they will have No chance whatsoever to win the next GE.
However, those Tories fools think that by voicing their displeasure towards Boris they have a leg to stand on, they better think again ...
Bloody hell has UK got dumb and dumber parties? I mean the one in charge is dumb but those in the oppositions are dumber.
You/we lot are doom unless you/we are rich middle class elite lefty/communists or middle class righty/aristocrats ...
All the politicians, regardless, are Zombie Maggots.
Problem is that Boris Johnson is still the best there is at the moment as a PM.
Imagine believing that without wanting to top yourself.
The oppositions are biting down like a mad dog to a bone now because they know if Boris is still the party leader they will have No chance whatsoever to win the next GE.
Neither the polls or the Tories agree with you there.
Imagine believing that without wanting to top yourself.
Show me a leader that is better than him at the moment.
I rather have a leader like him than a leader that will tell me how to live my life.
Neither the polls or the Tories agree with you there.
You believe in polls? You might as well believe in my crystal ball.
The only person controlling BJ’s fate is Cummings.
His revenge has been sweet indeed.
And served at just above absolute zero too!
I think Nadine Dorries has just spent the entire PMQ’s on her phone!
She's being told to shut up by the man in the back-room!
The only person controlling BJ’s fate is Cummings.
His revenge has been sweet indeed.
Cummings is a fool if he thinks revenge is sweet.
People vote for Boris because he takes risks or get the job done unlike the "normal" politicians, not perfect but he is also not really tightening the noose on the people.
The defector MP for Bishop Auckland he just let the people down in that constituency. People wanted change but he just changed it back for them ... back to square one. How dumb can he be?
I know I really shouldn't poke the bear, but...
For those Tories that stick a knife into the back of the PM, hopefully the people will stick one into them.
You really ought to consider your turn of phase @chewkw, given that 2 MP's have been murdered in recent years. 👎
People vote for Boris because he takes risks or get the job done
What jobs has he 'got done'?
Aside making his mates richer, making the people poorer or helping us to one of the worst Covid fatality rate?
You really ought to consider your turn of phase @chewkw, given that 2 MP’s have been murdered in recent years. 👎
OOpps ... I see. Completely forgotten about that.
Rephrase should be "... to show no confident in them and to vote them out".
What jobs has he ‘got done’?
Aside making his mates richer, making the people poorer or helping us to one of the worst Covid fatality rate?
Sorry but most politicians make their mates richer so try not to hang to that moral high ground coz that point does not work with me.
You blame Covid fatality rate on PM? Why not look at the place of origin for Covid?
I see all politicians equally as Zombie Maggots regardless. The only different is that some do less damage than others.
You have to remember that Bury South was something of an oddity at the last election. There was a very specific issue that led to the result at the last GM. Or, more accurately, a specific person…
Correct. Ivan Lewis was the disgraced incumbent, and having been suspended from Labour, ran as an independent and split the vote.
Sorry but most politicians make their mates richer so try not to hang to that moral high ground coz that point does not work with me.
You blame Covid fatality rate on PM? Why not look at the place of origin for Covid?
I see all politicians equally as Zombie Maggots regardless. The only different is that some do less damage than others.
Yes I do blame Boris.
Being the 'leader' at the time.
Yes I do blame Boris.
Being the ‘leader’ at the time.
Unless the person is a "Billy no mates".
The term is mates. That's what mates do for each other. If a person doesn't help his/her mates who does s/he help?
Politicians who are a "Billy no mates" has No chance or potential whatsoever to be elected.
When was the last time you see a "Billy no mates" become a leader?
I see all politicians equally as Zombie Maggots regardless. The only different is that some do less damage than others.
That suites the Tories fine. It's a subtle but effective voter suppression, "they are all the same, why bother".
Anyway, this government has totally blown that idea out of the window.
I don't think there has been anything remotely like this shower in living memory. Tory, Lib or Labour.
