Whenever the election comes, I feel the Labour landslide is not a given. I wouldn’t underestimate the power of populist politics in what is, unfortunately , a somewhat divided nation where the economic woes, more and more will be feeling, will be pinned on “small boats”etc.
The Tories will fight dirty, because, well, it worked before.
Basically this.
It pays not to overestimate the electorate. Just ask Nigel Farage.
I think Sunak will delay until the last possible minute. He will be praying for some accidental good fortune he can point to, or most likely, some bad event he can try to convince bigots is down to some 'others'.
Its not just that, its that labour are not attactive to the voters with their pro prvitisation of the NHS being brexiteers and pro austerity. They are not giving people a reason to vote for them
Jake the snake Berry
And huge "reporting back" leaflets claiming 3 new schools and contradictory amounts of spending on local services depending on which page you read
Christ! I had no idea that they have until January 2025 to hold an election. Thought it was May 2024 at the latest.
Still, I can feel the Tories softly shifting into election mode, with various tax promises, and I'm not sure their forecasters will be seeing enough of an upturn in 2024 to offset how ugly it could get in winter 2023/4, with inflation still above 5%, energy costs remaining high etc.
It depends at what point they reach the obvious conclusion that there is zero prospect of a win or even a hung parliament, and the only aim should be damage limitation. They may be looking for data from the Selby and Uxbridge by-elections to see if there is any bit of their core vote that is still loyal.
Its not just that, its that labour are not attactive to the voters with their pro prvitisation of the NHS being brexiteers and pro austerity. They are not giving people a reason to vote for them
I'm struggling to think of a reason to vote Labour, apart from the fact that they are not officially Tories and anything round here is a truly wasted vote
Depends in part on whether Rishi gives AF or not about the party.
Half of me wants them to FRO right now. The other half of me says I want this scumbag self serving incompetent corrupt bunch of c@#ts in charge to go the distance and take responsibility (and hopefully annihilation) for the mess they chose to make in the last 13 years
Autumn 2024 is my guess too.
Already some rumours of attention-grabbing inheritance tax cuts to shore up their core voter base. Older folk are less likely to vote in winter too.
Then it might just give enough Rishi enough time to meet his pledges, albeit late. Given current polling the tories are going to be hammered if it was held this year, so if it's a harsh winter and the economy gets even worse, then they've lost nothing, whereas if things improve slightly they can hold onto that as a sign they're in control.
I reckon this autumn is quite likely as there are clear advantages for the tories going early in that the economic pain of higher mortgages and the coming recession won't have properly kicked in, and in the event of the almost inevitable labour victory, all the pain and anger coming next year will be transferred on to the shoulders of them rather than the tories. From now on it's all about damage limitation and laying the foundations for bouncing straight back after one term in opposition, and an early election would seem to support that. Also I think Sunak is probably pissed off and bored of the job and has no wish to carry on longer than is necessary.
First clue will be some random tax cut murmur - which interestingly since Truss - Sunak hasn't dared go there and that is the only thing Tories have over Labour.
I think that will come out in desperation - although a tax cut and interest rises are a bizarre combination but I suppose it sounds like Tory posturing. Basically the economy is a total shit-heap of failed metrics and real world problems.
Stagnation appears to be the current Labour and Tory battleground.
Given the way Labour have swung right and currently meeting with business 'leaders' - it wouldn't suprise me if they join this race too. It'd be natural territory for Reeves's current Benny Hill version of Tory economics.
And both establishment parties associate tax cuts with growth which is interesting when your central bank is trying to cull demand.
Labour have had the advantage of watching the Tories make a mess of everything too.
Thick ****s.
Given the way Labour have swung right and currently meeting with business ‘leaders’
Labour is probably doing more than just meeting business leaders, I would imagine that they are actively involved in advising Starmer. One Labour candidate for an upcoming by-election is currently a Bank of England official and another one is a former publicity advisor for the CBI.
The backgrounds of Labour and Tory MPs are starting to resemble each other more and more as both parties increasingly represent the interests of the same wealthy elite.
For the few, not the many.
First clue will be some random tax cut murmur
Like the rumours from ‘anonymous sources’ in the last few days that Sunak is planning to abolish inheritance tax?
Mmm - I've not been up on that one Daz. Will check it out.
I like how Labour keep kowtowing to trickle down - like they've not noticed it doesn't work.
Jake the snake Berry suddenly holding a meet and greet in our tiny little village community centre
He's found out where part of his constituency is, then? The ****.
He must have asked Robert Jenrick to point it out on a map
<p style="text-align: left;">One Labour candidate for an upcoming by-election is currently a Bank of England official and another one is a former publicity advisor for the CBI.</p>
The bleed of Labour into the finance sector has always been troubling for me. The whole deregulation and BoE 'independence' - simply contributing to worse situations for working people.
That was years ago - so Christ knows what Reeves has got up her Tory sleeves. People are simply rolling over and taking it that Labour can't do anything.
I am not aware of Johnson ever purging anyone from the Tory Party. Did he even withdraw the Tory whip from anyone other than for appropriate nonpolitical reasons
Picking back up on this one - Boris hand a hand in getting his own brother shuffled out of the commons.
My heart says Autumn 2023 - the head says Autumn 2024
My heart says Autumn 2023 – the head says Autumn 2024
They are about to start summer recess until September. Then a couple of weeks back until Conference season. Which would push any election this year until pretty late on which generally doesnt suit the tories.
I wouldnt be surprised if they go for summer next year to try and reset the calendar back to the normal May/June timing.
that Johnson kicked out a load of Tory MPs from parliament on 3rd of September 2019?
Are you trolling?
Clearly he couldnt kick them out of parliament however he did withdraw the whip from 21 MPs on that date.
Of which 10 got the whip restored in October.
Picking back up on this one – Boris hand a hand in getting his own brother shuffled out of the commons.
Sorry are you seriously suggesting that Rishi Sunak is limited by who he can have in his cabinet because Boris Johnson had a whole lot of Tory MPs purged from the House of Commons? What a weird conspiracy theory.
Boris Johnson decided to back Leave a few weeks before the referendum because he was driven by personal ambitions and the direction of the wind, I doubt that Rishi Sunak's steadfast commitment to brexit is quite that shallow.
Despite a slick presentation which appears to fool a few on here Rishi Sunak is on the right of the Tory Party, he is certainly more right-wing than Boris Johnson.
Indeed Sunak emphasized his disagreement with Johnson on economic issues in his resignation letter, and it certainly wasn't because spendy boris was too right-wing.
Sunak has all the right-wing nutters on the Tory right that he could possibly want in his Cabinet, Johnson hasn't deprived him of anyone that he might have wanted.
Are you trolling?
Clearly he couldnt kick them out of parliament however he did withdraw the whip from 21 MPs on that date.
Of which 10 got the whip restored in October.
Are you trolling?
They are obviously all there for Rishi Sunak to choose to make ministers if he so wishes.
The idea that Rishi Sunak is somehow handicapped because Boris Johnson purged the Tory Party is ridiculous nonsense.
Mmm – I’ve not been up on that one Daz. Will check it out.
Sunak has all the right-wing nutters on the Tory right that he could possibly want in his Cabinet, Johnson hasn’t deprived him of anyone that he might have wanted.
It's why it's worth focussing on the politics and not the personality.
No idea why Sunak was thought of as a grown-up.
No idea why Sunak was thought of as a grown-up.
Some people on here seem to think he is on the left of the Tory Party.
Sunak focuses very hard and spends a lot of money on his image:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rishi-sunak-focus-groups-rayner-b2084297.html
If he has managed to fool a few on here then I guess that perhaps he does stand a chance when he eventually calls a general election. I am told that the average voter isn't as clever as the average punter on here.
Autumn or Spring
Which Year? 🙂
I'd guess at Autumn 24'.
If they Call it for late 23' they'll get slaughtered, and not enough time will have passed by Spring 24' for people to forget their mounting Mortgage Debt or the amount they've just had to spend on Gas through winter.
Lil' Rishi's best hope is that Inflation drops off by next summer and that something positive turns up for him to lay claim to as good news...
Despite the narrative, most people don't care about 'the boats' the Cost of Living Crisis and having an out of touch Billionaire in No. 10 will do for the Tories...
Lil’ Rishi’s best hope is that Inflation drops off by next summer and that something positive turns up for him to lay claim to as good news…
Or Putin doing something really, really mental, causing the 'rally to the flag' effect that usually benefits the Tories
Or Putin doing something really, really mental, causing the ‘rally to the flag’ effect that usually benefits the Tories
Underpriced
I'm no fan of Sunak, and agree, he's not a centrist. However I do think he's somewhat more pragmatic than many in his party.
However the idea that he has completely free reign in who he chooses for his cabinet isn't credible. Whenever there's a reshuffle, even with a new prime minister, there are loads of political considerations, including who'll be expecting what sort of post, and what experience they bring to the table.
Yes, in theory he could choose whoever he wanted. In practice if he wasn't careful, he'd be getting a knock on the door from the men in grey suits almost before he'd even started.
Yeah but it won't be from a former MP/PM
They are obviously all there for Rishi Sunak to choose to make ministers if he so wishes.
Nope they arent. Of the 21 only 4 are still MPs after the 2019 election.
I guess in theory he could try raising them to the House of Lords but that takes time.
And why would he do that? As far as I know they were all committed Remainers and Rishi Sunak is committed to brexit. In fact Rishi Sunak has been committed to brexit far longer than even Liz Truss.
I don't believe any of the individuals who had the whip removed were kicked out of the Tory Party. The idea that Johnson had some sort of grip on the the vetting of Tories MPs in the way that Starmer now has with Labour candidates is bizarre, as is the claim that Johnson somehow influences the composition of Sunak's Cabinet.
I'll remind you that all of the current Great Offices of State, Chancellor of the Exchequer, Foreign Secretary, and Home Secretary, were chosen by Liz Truss, none of them by Boris Johnson.