Any observations?
Autumn
Election before the full impact of the housing crisis
Election before the cutbacks arising from unfunded pay rises (schools sacking LSAs etc)
Parties don't like to leave it to the last minute in case of any nasty surprises
Election before they're all smeared by phone or Moane
Mini giveaway budget
Spring
Deliver a few tax cuts in the budget
Replace Sunak and give the new face a few months to improve matters
Thoughts?
It would make no sense for the government to go for a general election over a year early when they are so far from their stated economic goals and with such a huge lead for the Opposition.
It is not feasible to believe that the Opposition lead could get any bigger if the government waited until next year to call a general election. Depending on how things pan out there is always a vague possibility that Labour lead will reduce.
More likely autumn next year I would have thought, unless something miraculous happens before that for the Tories and the Labour lead falls significantly.
yeah no chance unless they're way ahead in the polls
I doubt they'll get rid of Sunak. There doesn't seem to be any credible replacement, (not that they every worried about this for the last few years!)
They'll want to keep their snouts in the trough for as long as possible, so unless anything happens so catastrophic that the whole shitshow collapses, they won't go voluntarily. Vote of no confidence isn't likely because they still have a decent majority, albeit one that's shrunk, and is likely to continue to do so due to byelections.
edit - can a VNC even trigger an election? I'm not sure it can.
I believe that a vote of no confidence should trigger the dissolution of the current government. Under the circumstances, if someone else is in a position to form a government that wouldn't also face a vote of no confidence, then a general election isn't necessarily required.
I wouldn't necessarily rule out an election this year. If Sunak loses a lot of the upcoming by-elections, he may end up with no choice but to call an election if he loses even more of his authority.
I got my first election literature to deliver this week. Labour are gearing up for an early election
Apparently, if the rumours doing the rounds in Westminster are to be believed, Rishi has seen the absolutely apocalyptic economic forecasts for next year and he’s getting itchy to go early to try and save an absolute wipeout.
Early next year is the assumption, rather than hang on as everything goes to shit even more than it has done already, but Autumn is a possibility
I don't think there is any possibility that the Tories will change their leader yet again in this parliament, it would look like an act of desperation.
They are of course desperate but they need to at least pretend that they have a plan and that they know what they are doing.
and save an absolute wipeout
Well currently all the polls are forecasting an absolute wipeout.
All the polls are overwhelmly showing the Tories on less than 30% of the vote. The Tories have never in 200 years received less than 30% of the vote in a general election (that's with unionist parties I believe)
Their support simply can't fall any lower than it is now. The 25-28% they are polling now represents the hardcore dyed-in-the-wool Tory voter who will vote Tory no matter what.
Their support simply can’t fall any lower than it is now
Given the catastrophic economic forecasts and the fact that the cost of living crisis is now hitting their core voters as well as the plebs, I wouldn’t bet on that.
I imagine anyone who’s fixed term mortgage deal is coming to an end or who’s rent is getting whacked up will be looking to vote for anyone but the Tories, and as the Bank of England helpfully pointed out this week, that is millions and millions of people
Our external consultants are predicting spring next year, there's legislation going through that could destroy our industry, they've already lost a judicial review, missed a great opportunity to put some proper regulation in place that would actually benefit consumers and instead went for cheap headlines. We're hoping for an election sooner rather than later because we reckon Labour will have bigger issues to fix.
As Binners points out mortgage misery still hasn't peaked and we could have a proper cold winter this year which will really put the squeeze on energy bills.
The Tories comfortably won a general election after overseeing the worse levels of home repossession and negative equity in history.
I don't believe for a moment that Labour won't win the next general election, whenever it is called, but I wouldn't underestimate the resilience of the Tory core vote.
Even with mass unemployment the Tory vote can hold up.
There is nothing I would like more than to see the Tory vote collapse below that of the LibDems, but the reality is even if Rishi Sunak started walking around with his underpants on his head support for the Tories isn't going to go significantly lower than it is currently.
If things move at all it will only be up imo.
Once the Tories were proposing giving people a year's grace before being evicted, it seemed they would want to pass the parcel to the LP within a year. It's going to be dire but sadly My No Hope Party seems to be able to come up with nothing better than converting to interest-only mortgages and extending repayment periods. Nothing about rent controls or social housing. When the election comes, I see little change but Starmer may well have a challenge managing the crisis with Reeve's Tory agenda.
I've been out for a couple of hours delivering Labour election leaflets and I returned home to find this through my door...
Note: no mention of the Tory Party and no logo's. Just a picture of the mekon-headed cockwomble pretending he supports the local football team
So, our local Tory MP (majority 100 votes) having not been seen anywhere near his constituency since he was elected in 2019 has just decided, completely out of the blue, that he was going to go for a walkabout and a bit of door knocking? Yeah... right.
I'm surprised I didn't bump into him and I'm gutted I wasn't in when he called. That would have been an interesting conversation, starting with the question ‘why have you blocked me from all your social media, when all I did was, perfectly politely, ask you a question about Boris Johnson and his parties!”
But if this doesn't scream 'Autumn Election' then I don't know what does?
I returned home to find this through my door…
They are watching your house.
Down here in the 'Blue Wall' we Lib Dems are also already geared up we're expecting a Spring Election but TBH we're ready to go any time.
Got a few real Tory big beasts round here that we'd love to 'do a Portillo' on.
Bring it
They are watching your house
I bloody knew it Ernesto!
It’s quite telling that the Labour leaflet is a 4 page A4 with policy proposals and manifesto pledges and the Tory’s is an A5 card which says absolutely **** all! They can’t even come up with any reasons why anyone should vote for them
Ben Wallace has said he will be leaving Government in the autumn after four years as Defence Secretary.
His Wyre and Preston North constituency will disappear at the next election after boundary changes and he said he would not seek a new seat.
He joins more than 40 other Tory MPs to step down at the next election.
Mr Wallace told The Times: “I’m not standing next time.”
He confirmed he will not leave “prematurely” and force a by-election.
Does this mean the tories will call a GE this year, or is he doing a Nadine Dorries 'I'm totally resigning, but not really"?
source: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ben-wallace-quit-boris-johnson-nato-b2375973.html
I think it means that he will resign as Secretary of State for Defence at the next cabinet reshuffle.
He hasn't said that he will resign as MP, just that he won't stand as a candidate in the next general election.
he is leaving the department roll not mp.
It's so he can get a job in the defense industry when they lose the next GE
Minister rolls have to be left for 2 years before you can work in the same industry so he will sit it out on the back benches.
Also puts him in the running to do a guilt free stabbing in the back of his glorious leader when the time comes
Fiver on autumn this year because they know things will be terrible through winter.
And summer comes with a feel good boost.
Sunak is out of his depth and is ready to shed his political load.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 40px; text-align: left;">But but - I can see arguments for next year too. The assumption things will be better by leaving it longer of course.
This autumn. Tories won't want a winter again. I think there ready to dump their mess.</p>
It’s quite telling that the Labour leaflet is a 4 page A4 with policy proposals
Some should let Starmer know about that then because he's busy doing **** all of substance and borrowing Tory economics.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1680286105357230080?t=hzvMmfGp5138Gh7KUaVJuQ&s=19
We can get growth from reform, apparently. Either way right-wing solutions to right-wing problems.
It's going to be a painful G.E with so much damage and so little hope. Can't say I'm looking forward to it.
The G.E after that will be the interesting one. Sigh.
he is leaving the department roll not mp.
Just semantics, I guess, the indy didn't quote him per-se but..
Ben Wallace has said he will be leaving Government in the autumn
Surely that means he'll be standing down as an MP, as all MP's are part of the government?
But he's going to do a Nadine Dorries, though, of course.
Fiver on autumn this year
Would be nice to see, but I'm not sure the conservatives are capable of even doing that, such is the chaos.
Reckon they'll kick the can down the road for as long as they can. Money to be made from NHS contracts, pumping shit, soulless asylum centres and needless transport projects before the electorate bend them over. Why hasten the loss of income? Its's all about small boats dont'cha know? Not to mention, offshoring obscene wealth, while reminding your client media to push the Johnny Foreigner narrative, just not, ever, about about EU tax rules, Sunlit Uplands of Brexit is where it's at...
Yeah I think so, the conservatives have already crashed the car into a tree, it's written off, but, they will keep revving the engine until its run out of petrol, or the police pull them out of it.
I would go for autumn 2024 for same reason as Autumn this year (post summer, before winter) but a year later to give them another year in power so Sunak can continue to meet his pledges, conveniently forgetting they were for this year.
Surely that means he’ll be standing down as an MP, as all MP’s are part of the government?
Indeed, but the term is also used to mean the administration or executive branch of government in uk politics, that is the dominant usage in news media etc.
Kinda makes sense I guess, but it's pretty freacking wrong from a moral/ethic point of view.
It wouldn't make much sense to describe opposition MPs as being part of the government.
The terms Tory government, Labour government, coalition government, etc, refers to those in ministerial roles.
+ secretarial roles too.
When do they run out of (semi-) competent MPs to be ministers?
Some really don’t want to do it and some make Nadine look like a borderline genius.
When do they run out of (semi-) competent MPs to be ministers?
Very early on, hence Peter Mandelson making it back into government after resigning twice.
One thing that has made the current lot particularly awful was that Johnson purged pretty much all the talent from his government so that they wouldn’t be a threat to him.
When do they run out of (semi-) competent MPs to be ministers?
That ship has long since set sail
We’ve Boris to blame for that.
Insecure as he was, he only appointed those he deemed to be less intelligent than him and thus unthreatening. The rest he purged from the party
Unfortunately for the country ‘less intelligent than Boris’ is an extremely low bar
How on earth else would you end up in a situation where two of ‘The Great Offices of State’ are occupied by a pair of Morons like Suella Braverman and James Cleverly and you’ve got ministers of the caliber of Helen Whateley, a woman who looks like she struggles to put her shoes on the right feet?
One thing that has made the current lot particularly awful was that Johnson purged pretty much all the talent from his government...
The current lot was chosen by Rishi Sunak.
… once the party had been purged by Johnson
It’s slim pickings
But it’s a fair point. Even Johnson never elevated 30p Lee to a senior role
The rest he purged from the party
I am not aware of Johnson ever purging anyone from the Tory Party. Did he even withdraw the Tory whip from anyone other than for appropriate nonpolitical reasons?
The current lot was chosen by Rishi Sunak.
From those who remained after Johnson forced out loads of competent remainers.
… once the party had been purged by Johnson
Are you confusing him with Keir Starmer?
From those who remained after Johnson forced out loads of competent remainers.
No Rishi Sunak had a choice from all of the Conservative MPs in parliament.
I am not aware of Johnson ever purging anyone from the Tory Party. Did he even withdraw the Tory whip from anyone other than for appropriate nonpolitical reasons
3rd September 2019.
I don't know what you are suggesting - that Johnson kicked out a load of Tory MPs from parliament on 3rd of September 2019?
And you don't seem to be aware that Rishi Sunak was/is as committed to brexit as Johnson was/is.
Anyway it's sunny and I'm going on a bike ride now.
The whole country will be riding the crest of a resurgent economy due to the new CTTP deal where it’s like losing £4 and finding 8p 🥴
October 2024 I reckon. Possibly November because it disadvantages Labour's feet on the ground campaigning approach
If they go this Autumn they will be wiped out - hanging on for another year plus at least gives them hope that things will stabilize.
TBH they are going to be hammered anyway so long term tactics would be to hand the barrel of steaming shit over to Labour now so they have to take the pain of sorting out.
But Sunak isn't going to want to be remembered as the PM who went early tactically and then suffered the biggest defeat by a sitting Govt of all time
I think they are geari g up, between Binners getting a visit from his MP and Jake the snake Berry suddenly holding a meet and greet in our tiny little village community centre something's afoot.
Whenever the election comes, I feel the Labour landslide is not a given. I wouldn't underestimate the power of populist politics in what is, unfortunately , a somewhat divided nation where the economic woes, more and more will be feeling, will be pinned on "small boats"etc.
The Tories will fight dirty, because, well, it worked before.