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I have zero problem with eating more mackerel and shellfish - am I allowed to be happy that white fish will now cost more for the gammons speeding themselves to death on cod and chips?
Simon Jenkins ^^^ has been spouting bollocks for years but even he now seems to have grasped the reality of brexit - but too late.
That reality has been obvious since the referendum.
27 v 1 was only ever going to have one result.
The UK dealt itself a shit hand and proceeded to play it as badly as possible.
I posted on the previous page that the UK's refusal to reach an agreement on fishing appears to be the hill on which the negotiations will die.
Utter madness.
Fishing has some mythic symbolic status which appears to give it totally undeserved relevance.
Clearly johnson has no understanding of the UK-EU trade in fish; see post on page 1 and follow the link.
UK fisheries are the shrubbery demanded by the Knights of Nee.
Utterly perplexing to those on the other side of the table, and a complete irrelevance to reality.
Bonkers, utterly bonkers. Cornwall last summer, boat off loading a shed load of crabs (spider and brown) and lobster, asked if they’re going to the local fishmongers, answer; no mate most of this lot if off to France and Spain. WTAF!! Fantastic produce, bugger all food miles and we’re export it.
Eat a lot of lobster, do you?
This sort of narrative had been the root of the problem all along. We get an anecdote like this and the Daily Express gets the gammons into a frot with sensationalist headlines like "JOHNNY FOREIGNER IS TAKING OUR CRABS!" when the reality of the matter is, we don't want them. If we didn't export a large proportion of what we catch, it'd wind up in the bin. This is how trade works, we sell people things they want and buy things we want. Remember the "they need us" rhetoric? Pick one, you can't have it both ways.
There is about six people in the UK who actually, really, genuinely care about fishing rights aside from the few fishermen remaining who haven't yet sold theirs already. It was a non-story that the country gave precisely zero shits about until someone like Fartage realised it could be spun into a handy bit of propaganda.
Anyone still going "yes but fish" needs to get in the sea themselves.
Couldn’t the boats meet up in no mans land (sic) and just swap catches?
They could have a quick game of footy too.
R4 last night Is Britain Ready for Brexit?
I think that was "Brexit: Is It Oven Ready?"
I've never thought that Brexit was a good idea (to put it politely), but listening to that programme as it listed out the pros and cons, sector by sector, for an hour, or so, I just cannot comprehend why we would do this to ourselves, or why anyone could ever think it's a good idea.
Recommended for an analytical, but listenable summary
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000q0zs
I’m sure they would if it didn’t mean that they’re going to sell less Audi’s/mountain bikes/wood burners etc etc etc as the prices will all shoot up due to WTO tariff rules.
These items and many more will sell just as well as they do now regardless of any tariffs. Of course sales of all goods will be down over the next years due to the impact of brexshit on our economy.
Going back to cars... Will everyone be buying UK built Nissans instead? Don't think so.
Then there is the fable of not following EU standards, well if you want to sell Europe you do.. The company I work for sell 60% of their product into Europe. The company have just opened a manufacturing plant in Poland. Just in general conversation around the UK premises, I would say the vast majority of the work force voted to lose their jobs...
Recommended for an analytical, but listenable summary
I really can't listen to this kind of shit anymore. I only look at cuddly animals (oh and mountain bike videos) on youtube these days otherwise I would spontaneously combust out of anger.
"appease a tiny minority", I thought that's what most modern issues are about nowadays. God, (your favoured diety/personal belief) forbid anything else.🤔
sorry about the link but here's a fable and a half
Didn't Gove say last week to paraphrase "there's no reason we can't be like Norway" ? I can think of quite a few most of them red lines from your good selves
Brexit is a religion**, when you look at it through that prism it makes sense and it's why facts are irrelevant.
Unfashionably,I have nothing against religion, it's just that unquestioning "belief" is a common trait shared with Brexit.
I do think the government is in a pickle with this. I also think you all know I disagree strongly with Brexshit.
However, I would say for the 'small minority', particularly as many fishing boats are in rural and poorer areas, the loss of fishing/fish to boats from the continent will decimate some of those communities.
As an optimist I do think that we should eat far more of our own coastal harvest in the UK, and perhaps as the beach hut selling to the public has shown, entrepreneurs will change the market.
My issue is that the government is fighting for an industry and that seems to not be fit for purpose, economically or environmentally. It's got echoes of 1970/1980's UK coal about it...
Would it not be better to just agree our waters are ours and work to support change in the industry?
Again - Johnsons cabal have never had any intention of getting a deal. Its all been about trying to give the EU the blame for no deal.
This weekends talks between von der Leyen and Johnson is hardly an equal contest is it?
the loss of fishing/fish to boats from the continent will decimate some of those communities.
This happened decades ago. the problems with Johnson stance on fishing are myriad
Most UK catch is sold in the EU. Much of the UK catch is actually caught by EU trawlers using UK quotas that were sold to them. Previous governments also traded away quotas. We do not have the fleet or the skilled people to increase our catch. What Johnson wants is against international law of the seas.
U.K. fishing is a 1.5bn total industry - that’s 0.12% of our GDP. I work for a U.K. based company that spends three times that amount on research each year. That’s for perspective.
And I like mackerel, but a 1000 tonnes!
And unsmoked haddock is just white mush that tastes of nothing
What in <insert deity of choice here> are you doing to it to make haddock mushy? Cooked properly it's a firm flakey fish, cod is also one that goes mushy if it's overdone, flakes are much smaller though.
Will everyone be buying UK built Nissans instead?
Speaking of Nissan, at the Sunderland plant, they make cylinder heads - none of them are used at Sunderland. They all get shipped to France, Spain and some place where Dacias are made.
Engines are brought in from France and Japan
I love fresh seafood - a taste I acquired sailing around the coast of the UK, Ireland and Brittany in the 80s aboard converted fishing boats. I also saw first hand what decades of over-fishing had done to the industry.
The problems are that many have a romantic notion of the fisherman going out in the early morning to haul a few nets and be back by lunchtime.
The reality is that modern pelagic boats that represent the bulk of the UK quota are hyper-efficient, industrial units design to plunder the sea and destroy all fish in their wake. Juvenile fish and 'bycatch' are killed and simply thrown back - it is not sustainable. Even more bizarre is that the majority of the UK catch of mackerel and herring isn't sold for human but to be processed into pet food and fertiliser.
The majority of UK fishing licenses are held by a handful of operators who get rich on the proceeds whilst the rest of our coastal fishing community is scratching a living - Banff and Buckie aren't exactly thriving on the proceeds. What is completely absurd, like the whole of Brexit, is that we're staking the future prosperity of the country for literally a handful of people.
I do think the government is in a pickle with this. I also think you all know I disagree strongly with Brexshit.
I recall you starting a thread, stating that you weren't really sure. Ended up quite a long thread..... 😆
However, I would say for the ‘small minority’, particularly as many fishing boats are in rural and poorer areas, the loss of fishing/fish to boats from the continent will decimate some of those communities.
Losing a tenth of a small community compared with what proportion of some of the other industries that will vanish overseas? Sounds a reasonable tradeoff.
I call Weymouth home. I get fresh fish down at the harbour occasionally. I never seldom eat fish up in Oxford as it is never the same.
I'll be sad if the fishing goes. But to be honest its not t0o different to bemoaning the passing of gas-lighters or shepherdesses.
God, (your favoured diety/personal belief) forbid anything else.🤔
Spent a while there trying to work out what the heck this had to do with eating less...
Eat a lot of lobster, do you?
This sort of narrative had been the root of the problem all along. We get an anecdote like this and the Daily Express gets the gammons into a frot with sensationalist headlines like “JOHNNY FOREIGNER IS TAKING OUR CRABS!” when the reality of the matter is, we don’t want them. If we
Um. I think you'll find that he didn't write what you think he wrote. If you look carefully the subject of his last sentence was "we" not johnny foreigner.
Brexit is a religion**, when you look at it through that prism it makes sense and it’s why facts are irrelevant.
yep....
Malcolm Tucker: 'Brexit is like committing suicide by walking into a door over and over again'
'It's a f****** death cult'
Will everyone be buying UK built Nissans instead?
NOpe because the plant is going to close post brexit
bemoaning the passing of gas-lighters or shepherdesses.
Can't help you with the gas lighters but still plenty of shepherdesses, four within mtb range of here:
Nissan won't close the Washington plant.
6,000 directly employed there; 27,000 in the UK supply chain with 75% of them in north east.
Govt will do whatever it takes to keep the plant open; loss of those jobs in a geographically concentrated area will cost them at the ballot box in their newly won seats.
If Nissan threaten closure the response will be...tell us what it will take to stay and we'll do it for you - subsidies, grants, tax breaks and more.
They have already said they will have to if the is any supply issues and they will do so. In a year it will be shut because it will be simply unviable. Its already lost investment in new models IIRC
Govt will do whatever it takes to keep the plant open
It won't and isn't. It would need to agree to a level playing field with the EU and honour it. That is the current sticking point in negotiations. No deal means tarifs which condemn the plant long term and a deal means no subsidies without which Renault Nissan will dump it sooner or later because it has cheaper plants. Being part of the EU club was really quite useful.
In the event of no deal the UK Govt can do whatever they want.
As Renault control >40% of voting rights in Nissan, I would be surprised if the French govt don't have a view and haven't made that view known to the company.
Also it is much much cheaper for Nissan to close the UK plant than the french one due to our pathetic labour protections
Nissan won’t close the Washington plant.
6,000 directly employed there; 27,000 in the UK supply chain with 75% of them in north east.
Govt will do whatever it takes to keep the plant open; loss of those jobs in a geographically concentrated area will cost them at the ballot box in their newly won seats.
Doubt it. I suspect they'll just blame the EU and move on. The global car industry is too unstable to overtly support any given factory as their future lives seems to live and die on decisions to make a certain line of cars that comes up every few years. You could pour money into Nissan only for it to be gone in 5 years time. Excessive subsidisation will also likely result in punitive sanctions from the EU - which is allowed under the WTO rules - WTO rules on state aid aren't all that different to the EU ones as I understand it, at least for goods (Services are not considered for WTO rules, so banking/software/research would be OK).
If the Govt bungs Nissan a big subsidy to effectively offset the 10% tariffs they need to create a 'level playing field' to maintain access to the EU market, other countries will cry foul to the WTO and exert punitive sanctions on other UK imports. There's massive over-capacity in European car manufacturing anyway and with EV/hybrids replacing ICE it will simply be a case of letting UK auto manufacturing die a natural death and no further investment.
The notion that this Government or the Conservatives for that matter give a $hit about manufacturing is laughable - they're only interested in privatising public services, selling off / outsourcing chunks to their mates and taking well-paid advisory roles in the future enterprise.
so banking/software/research would be OK
Macron is an ex-banker, he knows what banks get up to and is intent on reforms within the EU to bring more integration and prevent abuses - which he knows are facilitated by the city. He wants to take back control and get European business banking in Europe. The Germans aren't playing ball but I think they increasingly will.
Wow! So many global car industry experts in one thread, clearly holding high up positions within the industry with years of experience to back up their opinions. What is it you do again TJ that qualifies you to speak with such certainty and insight on Nissan and Renault's business?
I read the papers and understand the politics!
Nissan have said any tariffs or non tariff barriers to the movement of parts and built cars over the border will make the plant nonviable. The best case from now is that there will be significant non tariff barriers and thus the plant will be nonviable.
Its also a fact that there is overcapacity in europe in car manufacture and because of the UKs pathetic workers rights its much easier and cheaper to close the UK plant.
Nissan have also already withdrawn some planned investment in the UK plant.
its blindingly obvious the plant will close.
Others also read the papers and understand the politics - and reach a different conclusion.
Omniscience must be wonderful.
I am only going on what Nissan have said. Delays at the ports or tariffs make the plant non viable. The best deal available now will mean significant delays at the ports
I'll take a bet for a forfeit of your choice to be photoed / filmed and posted on here- Nissan UK will be closed / closing in two years.
Nissan have said lots of things over the years, they know how to twist arms and are consequently one of the most heavily subsidised industries in the UK, they just aren't called subsidies.
The only investment they've pulled is for the xtrail which was only a very small percentage of the total volume and didn't make sense regardless of Brexit when it's already being manufactured in Japan anyway.
You can't suddenly switch a 2 vehicle per minute manufacturing process to another plant. It takes several years to introduce a new model so it's nonsense that on 1st January Renault plants will suddenly start building jukes and qashqais in the kind of volumes required. Also why close Barcelona plant instead of moving production there if Sunderland's closure was as nailed on as you suggest.
However any car plant is in a constant state of slow death, they are always looking to the next new model, if there is no tariff free access to the EU it's extremely unlikely Sunderland will see any new models after their current line up ends life.
Whatever happens with regards to a FTA, any supply chain disruption and extra checks will be managed, they don't signal a death-nell and it's not an insurmountable problem. In the event of tariffs my guess is as per usual they'll ask for government investment in order to secure the next new model - pretty much every new model secured there has had some element of government cash thrown their way. If they don't get this then I agree the future is bleak for them
You can’t suddenly switch a 2 vehicle per minute manufacturing process to another plant. It takes several years to introduce a new model so it’s nonsense that on 1st January Renault plants will suddenly start building jukes and qashqais in the kind of volumes required
Nissan UK will be closed / closing in two years.
I may have missed something here as it looks like you’re replying to TJ
Just a few bits of the press reporting
You really have drunk the coolaid if you think Nissan will not close the plant.
The UK's biggest car plant will not be sustainable unless a trade deal is agreed with the EU, Nissan has warned. The Japanese car maker employs around 7,000 people at its Sunderland factory where it has built more than 10 million cars since 1986.
Nissan has repeatedly stressed that production in the UK is under threat without tariff-free access to the EU.
Theresa May’s government offered assurances to Nissan in order to keep the plant open but repeatedly refused to publish details of what promises were made. It was later revealed that the sweeteners included up to £80m of support for skills, training, research and development and training – as long as Nissan built its new Qashqai and X-Trail models in Britain. The company eventually decided to build the X-Trail in Japan.
Nissan said in March that it would go ahead with a £400m investment at the Sunderland site. Less than two weeks later, production was suspended after coronavirus prompted a drop in demand and caused difficulty importing parts from Japan.
The threat of new trade barriers has forced Nissan to take action. Last year, it scrapped plans to build its new X-Trail SUV at the factory, saying that uncertainty over Brexit was partly to blame.
In November 2016, Nissan pledged to build the hugely popular Qashqai in the UK, after then-chairman Carlos Ghosn received assurances from then-prime minister Theresa May that the firm’s operations would be protected from the impact of Brexit – but the agreement was reportedly contingent on a ‘soft’ Brexit with an EU trade deal.
The FT claims that, under a global review Nissan has since undertaken, the Sunderland plant could be downsized or even closed if a no-deal Brexit makes it uncompetitive to ship cars from the site to the EU. Currently, Nissan also makes the Juke and Leaf models at Sunderland.
matt_outandabout
Full MemberHowever, I would say for the ‘small minority’, particularly as many fishing boats are in rural and poorer areas, the loss of fishing/fish to boats from the continent will decimate some of those communities.
That already happened. It's why so many people involved in fisheries hate the EU. But it's a short memory thing- the EU didn't "take" the fisheries, they were given them in negotiations by a Tory government that knew perfectly well what they were doing and the effect it would have on the fishing communities. They also knew that most of the people they were screwing were far from London and didn't vote Tory, so they were perfectly happy to sacrifice them in order to get other things they wanted more.
But fast forward to brexit and weirdly it was the EU that were the bad guys and the actual reasons for the situation were completely forgotten. So the next generation of Tories who also don't really care about fishing communities as they're far away and don't vote Tory, realised they could be a useful tool in the brexit debate as long as nobody remembered whose fault it actually was.
Even that Jenkins article posted the other day promoted that myth- the EU had "plundered" us and "taken our fish". Nah. The EU never had any ability to do that, they just asked for it and were told yeah, no worries. And not by incompetent dishonest bad-faith negotiators like we have now but by people who knew exactly what the result would be.
I haven't said Nissan will not close the plant. Nissan has been saying the plant will close since it was bailed out by Renault back in 2000. Stop believing everything they say in the media, its always with one eye towards securing the next government handout.
Its future is only ever as long as its current model line up, so about 7 years.
You're suggesting it doesn't matter what happens now, FTA or not the plant is dead. This is nonsense.
With no tariffs its future is no better or worse than it ever was. With tariffs is a different story and I agree the future will be bleak for them.
Its not just the tariffs - I could not find the quote but delays at the ports disrupt the just in time system they use.
Also the jhapan / UK deal means its easy to import from Japan
Its my view and I'll bet the forfeit on it. Want to take me up?
the plant is dead, there is no deal available now that will allow it to be viable
Its not just the tariffs – I could not find the quote but delays at the ports disrupt the just in time system they use.
Yes there's potential for disruption, do you honestly think this presents an unsolveable issue and the company won't adapt? Its logistics, not quantum physics.
Also the japan / UK deal means its easy to import from Japan
True, but it'll take several years for that tariff to become 0%. And logistics costs for shipping vehicles half way around the world aren't insignificant. But yes potentially this could affect the likelihood of the plant winning further business beyond their current line-up.
Its my view and I’ll bet the forfeit on it. Want to take me up?
the plant is dead, there is no deal available now that will allow it to be viable
Everything is dead over a large enough timescale. As for a bet, all I'm saying is that if there is a FTA that allows tariff free access to the EU for vehicles, the plant will survive and will continue to build its current model line-up i.e the Juke and Qashqai will see out their lifespans, that is all. I'm happy to take that bet but at what point in time would you be willing to accept I'm right?
2 years
But you have to remember. 🙂
do you honestly think this presents an unsolveable issue and the company won’t adapt? Its logistics,
Yes. the solution is to abandon "just in time" and hold stockpiles of parts which has huge cost implications both in storing them and in the actual cost of the inventory