There's odds of 10:1 available at the moment on a Labour minority government. Several of my political friends are taking a punt on that.
Personally, I think the polls are way out of kilter and we'll see another hung parliament.
JP
JP, best (longest) odds on lab minority are 5/1; lab coalition options range from 12 to 16/1.
10s for lab minority not available anywhere; point me towards them and I'll have a punt.
Survation out by midnight, they called it closest last time
But I'm off to bed
Jjprestridge
Personally, I think the polls are way out of kilter and we’ll see another hung parliament.
Do we have enough lamp posts?
Not making a prediction, but I’m pretty sure it won’t be as the polls predict. I’m keeping faith in two things, one that people are not as stupid as the pollsters or media pundits assume they are and will vote tactically against the tories, and that when it comes down to it people will vote with their pockets, which for most will be labour/non-tory.
I won’t be surprised if I’m wrong, and if so then fair enough. We get the government we vote for, and if things need to get worse before they get better that’s a choice only the people can make. It’s depressing, frustrating, and completely irrational, but maybe it’s necessary?
[i]I won’t be surprised if I’m wrong, and if so then fair enough. We get the government we vote for, and if things need to get worse before they get better that’s a choice only the people can make. It’s depressing, frustrating, and completely irrational, but maybe it’s necessary?[/i]
You can lead a horse to water, but if the horse refuses to drink then maybe it just has to be thirsty.
You have to consider that you're wrong. That most people in this country have an entirely different set of values to you. That you're a minority and in the maths of this country that means you're a loser and you count for the square root of f-all. You're not a unique snowflake, you're just meat for the grinder, with no representation. The abbatoir gates loom despite your squealing.
A tough thing to accept.
As I do every time we have one of these shindigs; I sit here as the clock turns midnight, registered to vote in what is the 36th safest tory seat in the country. I am politically relatively astute and informed. I have done my homework and have a keen idea not only of the national policies of the main parties but the local candidates too. I am ready to do my bit and cast an informed vote......
But really, what's the point? I'll toddle off and do it because it's the right thing to do. But......the local tory here could walk through the town centre nuts deep in a farm animal of his choice before spending a week knocking on every door he finds and telling the householder to get to **** and he would still get in by a landslide. Even if I wanted to vote tory I could stay in bed and the result would be the same - he only needs to win by one vote. My local representative in parliament will be recommending Boris for PM tomorrow evening - that is an absolute certainty. My vote will be amalgamated with the 70 thousand odd folk that just happen to live near me and will be turned blue. 100% certainty.
Some uninformed eejit who walks into a polling booth in a marginal seat and puts their cross down dependant on liking the logo of the party has infinitely (and I mean that literally not metaphorically) more influence than me in the result tomorrow night.
Remind me again why we do it like this?
It would interesting to know how many of those that have contributed to this thread have the ability to cast a vote in a constituency where they might just be part of making an impact.
Remind me again why we do it like this?
You vote for another party because, if you don't nothing will ever change. It's the usual story - if everyone who didn't vote did, things could be very different.
The Survation poll amounts to having one's chips pissed upon.
Having said that....refer to Dr Moderate @centrist_phone for a more nuanced interpretation of crude poll results.
I still live in hope.
Remind me again why we do it like this?
Because to change it would require one of the two parties that benefits from the Status Quo to act against their own interests in order to improve our democracy.
Are ready for whatever it is Johnson will deliver that he won’t tell us about, and won’t answer questions about…?
https://twitter.com/davies_will/status/1204734456852107264?s=21
My prediction is less a prediction than a wish - i'd like the composition of the House to end up exactly as it was before it was dissolved. Like exactly, just so we can all agree on what a waste of time that was.
If we do end up there, i hope we take some time to reflect on it. I think that at least half of us can agree that we did not take too kindly to being rounded up in the whole '80something% of people voted for parties committed to...' line in 2017.
Many people will be voting tactically tomorrow in most part to prevent a Tory Majority.
If this proves to be successful, please, please can we not interpret this as either an endorsement of Corbyn, or a thrust for a 2nd Indy Ref, or a 'swing' to the LibDems, or an abandonment of anyone caught in the crossfire?
BoZo called this as a de facto Referendum (which should really be a crime in itself - how on Earth could you expect people to behave as if they were voting on a single issue when they are surrounded by such dissolution?) so if people treat it as such then the overall lessons of it will necessarily be skewed.
You can't tell people to vote tactically and then analyse the results as if you hadn't, is all i'm asking.
It'll be as much of an all-nighter from me as i can stand, i love this shit. It's all about the 'Portillo Face' Live & Direct. Could be Raab, or Cream-Cracker! or ****in' Dunkin-Donuts!
See you all on the other side. Bon chance y'all.
👏🏽
It would interesting to know how many of those that have contributed to this thread have the ability to cast a vote in a constituency where they might just be part of making an impact.
Me, I live in a marginal, Labour by 4k last time, Tory by 2k before that. Not been campaigned at much tho.
Same here, think it might be the same constituency (Cardiff South and Penarth). Been canvassed by Labour, Conservatives and Lib Dems while at the shops in town so a bit of activity. Pity I missed BoJo being in Caerphilly today though, would have loved to have found a way to tell him exactly what I think of him. Might have even had a chance to say what I think of his party too but I probably would have been removed by his entourage by then 😆
yourguitarhero
Member
You have to consider that you’re wrong. That most people in this country have an entirely different set of values to you. That you’re a minority
Yes, I am in a minority. So is pretty much everyone, that's why we get governments elected by 40% of voters on a 70% turnout. If there was an actual majority position, then it'd always win.
Dur.
you’re just meat for the grinder, with no representation.
You're absolutely correct.
Though perhaps not for the reasons you intended.
It would interesting to know how many of those that have contributed to this thread have the ability to cast a vote in a constituency where they might just be part of making an impact.
I've discussed this several times now including probably more than once on this thread.
My constituency is a Labour lead over the Tories by buttons, no-one else is remotely close. In 2017 we had Labour and Cons circa 20k each, Kippers at about 2k and LDs in three figures.
I expect the bexit party will do well this time around, being UKIP 2.0 and all, but hopefully they'll mostly be diminishing the blues.
Finger in the air guess for here:
Labour 20-25k
Cons 15-20k
BP ~5k
LDs 500-1000
Greens sub-500
I live in Richmondshire North Yorkshire as safe a Tory seat as they come, as a socialist i have had no potential representation for nigh on 40 years...
There are many lost voices in this country.
Up in Bradford this morning with work but heading back to Canterbury soon to vote. Looking like labour might well hold on to safest Tory seat there was before 2017.
Head says slim Tory majority overall, heart says polls have been wrong before.
I've never had a say in the voting process; grew up in Henley on Thames where a someone in a Gestapo uniform and a blue rosette punching an immigrant child in the face would actually see their vote share increase. Now in Guildford with a 17K tory majority on a 55K turnout, however with the incumbent having resigned in protest and standing as an IND this time, maybe.....just maybe.....the vote will split and the LibDems might be in play.
I enjoyed the analysis of Boris's tractor stunt yesterday. Driving through a polystyrene wall to signify him clearing the roadblocks of parliament and brexit, that's what wins votes! While others observed that he then ****ed off to the boardroom with the other important people while ordinary people were left behind to clear up all the mess he'd left behind
BBC Breakfast is great this morning though....with it being purdah we've had articles on hedgehogs, strength of Bill Turnbull's hair, whether tapping a can before opening stops it fizzing over......
My constituency has been Conservative since it was created in the 50s.
2017 was a majority of 14K and 57% of the vote. Which is the biggest share ever, the only time the majority was bigger was when UKIP were running in 2015.
That 57% number appears again in the local count of the Brexit vote.
I may as well write my ballot on a paper plane and throw it out the window.
It would interesting to know how many of those that have contributed to this thread have the ability to cast a vote in a constituency where they might just be part of making an impact.
Me, and I think Kelvin as well, live in Calder Valley which has less than 1000 vote Tory lead (Craig Whittaker) a mouthpiece whip, there's enough spare votes spreadi in the Greens and Lib Dems to unseat him I think. Keep your fingers crossed.
I don't think any UK election has ever been won by less than three votes. So objectively there's no point voting wherever you live. But that's not the point, the point is you express your views with your vote and it's the only chance you get short of rioting. So just vote for whichever candidate you agree most with, and above all:
VOTE.
North Ayrshire is actually a fairly volatile constituency, SNP won with 18k (down from 22k) and Labour and Tories trailing with 13k and 15k respectively.
Everything to play for here.
Don't worry, I'm going to vote. I grew up in apartheid South Africa so know what it means.
My constituency has been Labour continuously since 1934. I think it's safe 😉
Either Labour or Ex SNP here, previously fairly tight (currently Labour) but with the SNP dropping the candidate due to anti semitism allegations that balance may change. Even in a Scottish constituency with plenty of economic deprivation the Tories had a sizeable share of the vote in 2017.
East Dunbartonshire - Lib Dem/SNP snorefest.
Stick a blue badge on a sock puppet and they'd get in round here. Actually my MP is Michael Gove so perhaps they did. He had a huge majority last time and I'm not detecting any signs of a big change in mood in the area, but I'll be voting anyway.
Anyhow, enjoy a day without politics and Brexit in the news (until 22.00 anyway) - it'll be the last one for a while.
Michael Gove so perhaps they did.
More beige butt plug than sock puppet I would say.
It would interesting to know how many of those that have contributed to this thread have the ability to cast a vote in a constituency where they might just be part of making an impact.
High Peak went from Blue to Red in the last election. Previously it had been a relatively safe Tory seat but the MP was up in the top few of the expenses scandal, the majority was whittled down substantially and then in 2017 it swung to Labour. Only about 3000 votes in it IIRC. The Labour MP is Ruth George, she's very good.
Off out to vote right now, polling station then train station. 🙂
There was a queue outside our polling station before it opened at 7 this morning.
At least people are getting off their arses for this one.
What an awful choice.
Voted Green.
So the big question is:
Will the non-dom non-taxpaying foreign billionaires get the government they have paid for? Bye bye NHS and pensions.
Let's make sure they don't.
Labour safe seat here. Last time out Labour had 55% of the vote with a majority of 10k on a turnout of 45k, Cons had a swing of 10% but that was mainly down to the voters deserting UKIP in droves. Suspect it will be work backwards this time round with the Con vote share dropping as voters desert to Brexit Party.
I'll be voting Labour. Lots of idiots at work are voting Con.
I don’t think any UK election has ever been won by less than three votes. So objectively there’s no point voting wherever you live. But that’s not the point, the point is you express your views with your vote and it’s the only chance you get short of rioting. So just vote for whichever candidate you agree most with, and above all:
VOTE.
Exactly. Since I reached voting age 30 odd years ago I have lived in 3 strong Tory constituencies. It is pretty difficult not to in the counties I have lived in. However, I have voted every time and voted for the party I am most closely aligned to. It is still an extra number for the party even if they didn't win.
And here is today's news:
Polls are open in the general election. Open. Yes polls are open. People are voting. And ermm.. voting is happening. Polls are open on this day, 12th December and people are definitely voting.
Now here's some stuff you don't care about at all. And back to Steph at the polling station which is open, and people are voting.
It is still an extra number for the party even if they didn’t win.
Exactly. Even in the bluest of blue seats, every non Tory vote is a sign of disagreement.
The change may start small, but it has to start somewhere.
Very marginal seat here, Stoke-on-Trent south. There are 3 seats in stoke and they're all hard core labour for years except for south who went to Tory in 2017 by just 663 votes thanks to all the gammons who are desperate for the promised golden brexit land. My vote will count and I'll be voting Labour.
Yesterday a neighbour and acquaintance (friend would be pushing it) was telling my wife how he had been leafleting for Conservatives. He was bragging about pulling some labour leaflets out of letterboxes whilst putting his in.
*Somebody* taped a Vote Labour poster to his gatepost last night...
Exactly. Since I reached voting age 30 odd years ago I have lived in 3 strong Tory constituencies. It is pretty difficult not to in the counties I have lived in. However, I have voted every time and voted for the party I am most closely aligned to. It is still an extra number for the party even if they didn’t win.
Don't get me wrong, as I said in my post I will be voting even for a locally lost cause. It would just would be very much more motivating if my little vote was added up to all the other who felt like me and I knew it contributed to someone being selected to represent me.
Me, and I think Kelvin as well, live in Calder Valley
Oi! Another Calder valley here. One of the many good things about moving here 5 years ago is that I actually have a vote to kick one of the biggest tory c**** in the country out of his seat. the other good news is that I know loads of people who have done the same, at least 20 of them, and they all hate the tories just as much as me.
I'd imagine Chris Grayling will win again here, sigh. So what beer for watching the results, something European in thinking.
