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Leading to more positive cases, but there aren’t? All local health board areas in Wales are showing a decline in cases.
I thought the lockdown was still ongoing there? Isn't that the point of the thread?
I thought the lockdown was still ongoing there? Isn’t that the point of the thread?
We have lifted a few restrictions. Unlimited exercise, socialising with people in the park / garden etc.
Unofficially lock-down is generally being less closely followed, roads are busier, beauty spots, parks and such are busier, things feel a lot more normal.
Interestingly, the R number in Wales is lower than most English and Scottish regions, according to this
But if NE England and Eastern England have equally low rates does that suggest Wales could open up more?
The peak is not over for us here in North West Wales, there are hot spots in Anglesea one being centred around a large chicken proccesing plant.
Looking forward to hitting the trail centres and visiting friends and family more than 5 miles away.
I can understand why they are cautious.
Interestingly, the R number in Wales is lower than most English and Scottish regions, according to this
I've no idea where those figures come from but the R number in Scotland was reported to be well below that 3-4 days ago - between 0.6 and 0.8.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52660050
I’ve no idea where those figures come from
I think they make them up 😁
You think we should continue strict lockdown on the basis that we might bump into the 1 in a hundred thousand people who has the virus?
This is making the case for regional lockdowns. If Cardiff still has high cases but Swansea doesn't, then we lift lockdown and we all decide to go to the Gower for the day, that would change.
I’ve no idea where those figures come from but the R number in Scotland was reported to be well below that 3-4 days ago – between 0.6 and 0.8.
Looks like different studies and models giving different numbers.
This is making the case for regional lockdowns. If Cardiff still has high cases but Swansea doesn’t, then we lift lockdown and we all decide to go to the Gower for the day, that would change.
Pretty much what I’ve been saying for two months (not on here!).
My mate farms in north Devon. They’ve had nothing happening and are about as remote from anywhere as you can possibly be in England, but are subject to the same rules as London..
The strict three week review period with lots of varying commentary and hints from the Welsh gov in between is pretty annoying. They need to communicate more frequently.
We spend a lot of time and money in N Wales, and I'm really struggling to see how a lot of the seasonal businesses will survive if they don't get some meaningful levels of trade in July/August. Caravan parks, chalets, holiday lets, watersports etc. Most will simply run out of money over the winter, after furlough has ended. We won't see the true impact of the long slow lockdown Wales have implemented for many months but for every life they are saving now (debatable) they are certainly ruining some in the future.
They seem to be pursuing a NZ type strategy based on them being a small, mountainous relatively sparsely populated nation, but they don't seem to have factored in the relatively huge volumes transit to England!
The peak is not over for us here in North West Wales, there are hot spots in Anglesea one being centred around a large chicken proccesing plant.
Looking forward to hitting the trail centres and visiting friends and family more than 5 miles away.
I can understand why they are cautious.
So there is ahot spot linked to one place of work, with known at risk people. Should we..
a) track, trace, quarantine, shut the plant down, put a cordon up like a localised lockdown suggested above, or...
b) continue to keep everyone in lockdown (including everyone under 40 who has such a small risk of death it barely registers) and continue to harm the economy?
It's not that complicated really is it...
The peak is not over for us here in North West Wales, there are hot spots in Anglesea
An outbreak in an isolated area doesn't make a peak. Wales is past the current peak, whether another peak emerges over time is another matter.
There seems to be a whole lot of indignation and mocking of the WAG approach to this. I live and ride in Wales and find it simple enough to both understand and implement, and can see the logic behind the guidance that is intended to facilitate exercise and reduce contact and travel. And as the rules have changed they have tweeks that made sense. I don't feel I've been treated like a child or subjected to ridiculous constraints?
Even when we had the earlier limits on how often you could go out in a day for exercise I'd often get some eggs on the way, pick up a prescription for someone, go and fly-spray the in-laws horse 17 miles away so every ride was 100% legal with no restriction on my life whatsoever. Simples!
Fortunately nearly everyone in SE Wales has cracking riding within 5 miles of home. I'm off to sample some now.
There seems to be a whole lot of indignation and mocking of the WAG approach to this.
I think that is more because the restrictions are amoung the toughest and most onerous, not because they are complicated.
I’d often get some eggs on the way, pick up a prescription for someone, go and fly-spray the in-laws horse 17 miles away
Good for you - I'm glad you've found some way to entertain yourself and keep busy. Personally, my heavily pregnant wife and I are trying to both work from home full time while taking care of our energetic toddler. This is all without any facilities or help whatsoever, as they have all been closed or banned for our safety.
On the riding side of things I've seen people out every single time I've been out up at Cwmcarn (it's on my doorstep) regardless of site status or lockdown. Everyone has been out with their dogs, on the road bikes, having picnics, dragging their supermarket specials up the hill in the sun and the barriers were moved aside on some sections of trail as soon as they were in.
From about a month back there's been plenty of non-locals about as well with cars parked on the surrounding streets, vans outside the gates of the carpark and people from all over the place still riding it. Now in the state where the gates are opened, the trails have been strimmered and everything is still closed, plus there's plant everywhere undertaking incredibly half arsed road repairs. As with most things NRW, it's all a bit of a shambles - I assume because there's about twenty different groups involved in making any sort of decisions and at least half of them are numpties.
If the trails are closed with gates and there is machinery around then you shouldn't be on the trails. If you follow NRW on facebook you'll have seen their constant posts about idiots riding the trails while they are being worked on with the subsequent damage putting things back further. Don't forget the new blue trail is still under construction but people have been riding it before the final surface is put down or even had a chance to settle.
NRW have their obvious faults but in this case it's people like you using the trails when they are obviously closed that are causing the problems. Please stop. There is plenty of other trails in your area to ride for the time being.
If the trails are closed with gates and there is machinery around then you shouldn’t be on the trails. If you follow NRW on facebook you’ll have seen their constant posts about idiots riding the trails while they are being worked on with the subsequent damage putting things back further. Don’t forget the new blue trail is still under construction but people have been riding it before the final surface is put down or even had a chance to settle.
Not making excused for them but the situation in Cwmcarn is a strange one.
I wrote quite a long post, but I don't want to give anyone the impression it's a good idea to ignore the lock down rules and drive there for a ride, because it's really not, there's loads of construction work going, and rumour has it some exciting new developments.
Equally, I'm told if you do go there, there's very little to suggest it's not open.
Hopefully tomorrow WAG will lift more restrictions and they can reopen properly.
This annoying - the forum ate my rather lengthy reply. I'll try and summarise below.
There's no need to ride the actual trails, but you're on the fireroad and the scenic to get to anything, so it's plain to see what's going on. Land here isn't actually all NRW - there's a fair chunk that's owned privately. The site being closed/not-closed is part of a wider problem with the lack of coherence and consistency in messaging and action across various orgs and the government. They've had people working on the site for the last few months with no heed to social distancing, but there's plenty of people with no access to the outdoors who could really benefit from visiting and plenty of people just ignoring the guidance and driving here anyway.
Yeah, Cwmcarn's ownership structure is a bit odd. Private land, NRW land and half the place being common ground makes it very odd! Add in the car park being run by Caerphilly Council and it gets confusing.
schmung - if you're only riding the fireroad only then that's fine, got no issues with that at all. It wasn't clear what you were riding from your post and hearing about idiots riding the trails has annoyed me massively as every time they do so it pushes back the date it'll all be open again.
I'm not overly worried about whether they open the trail centres immediately the moment they can, I just want to be able to get out to other places to ride, see my parents and get a haircut! Even if they do open all the trail centres up this weekend I'll be avoiding them for a bit as they'll be rammed. I'll go to one of the quiet bits of the Beacons for the time being.
I’m not overly worried about whether they open the trail centres immediately the moment they can, I just want to be able to get out to other places to ride, see my parents and get a haircut! Even if they do open all the trail centres up this weekend I’ll be avoiding them for a bit as they’ll be rammed. I’ll go to one of the quiet bits of the Beacons for the time being.
5 mile is just a "guideline" not a rule according to the lunchtime briefing.
As I understand it, the current guidelines are:
You may exercise for as long and as far as you like, as long as you are within your abilities (some guidance indicates that for a strong cyclist, this could be 40 miles, although it isn't clear if that is total or distance from home). You can only drive 5 miles / "locally" to the start of exercise if you are meeting someone else, as the driving is only permitted for social contact. You can eat during this social exercise, but only if it is spontaneous and unplanned. It's not clear what happens when you cross the border into England - I assume you can meet up with a bunch of mates and go to the pub.
At this point, I'm much less bothered about restrictions on exercise, and much more so about the Welsh economy and mental health.
ps. I am being a little facetious.
Yeah, well apart from the going to the Pub thing (unless I’ve missed an announcement).
Frankly there will be few people in Wales who don’t have at least decent riding more than 5 miles from their house, although I don’t even remember if we can drive 5 miles to exercise, or just 5 miles to see someone, the “5 mile rule” is actually 2 separate rules...
Anyway, we’re due an announcement tomorrow which may or may not allow unlimited travel for leisure, but if it does the Trail Centres may or may not open because NRW have their own issues regards to opening, but in any case the Trail Crew is busy clearing them.
Some of the logic is this thread seems a bit backwards, "the R number is lower in Wales so they should be reopening things" isn't that the opposite of saying the r number is higher in England because they opened more things?
Therefore vindicating the longer lockdown?
It will be a while before we see the full extent of all this.
@wiggles I'm not too bothered about the R number - unless the disease is completely eradicated, it will always have an effective R value around 1, like every other disease that exists. The link between effective R value (or the number of cases, or any metric you choose) and lockdown conditions is certainly not clear - the number of daily new cases in England continues to drop.
IMHO the state of lockdown in Wales is having much more negative effects on people's health and wellbeing than the virus at this point. We also need a functioning economy to be able to take care of the sick. It seems Drakeford's approach is to impoverish Wales, re-start a class struggle, and blame those evil Tories while asking them for more money.
Should add the Y number into the equation - the number of Years you need to keep a lockdown in place to maintain a particular R. I'm going to hypothesize Y goes up exponentially for a lower R.
Some of the logic is this thread seems a bit backwards
It Mirrors the logic of the WAG.
Mark Drakeford's message is fairly simple - "this is the plan we think is best for Wales" he will obviously face questions on why it's different to England's, he really answered a question with a question / sound bite "Why is England's different to ours?" In reality it's not that different, there's nothing new or special about it, it's just slower and with England so far not seeing any huge spikes it's making him look overly cautious.
Where is gets messy with when everyone else with a platform tries to answer the same question, I've heard a lot of people claiming our restriction of movement is an 'in all but name' measure to close the border because the the virus is dying out in Wales, others are saying we need to stay in lock down longer because it's taking such a terrible toll in Wales.
Personally I think Drakeford's biggest problem is that they're losing control, I have to travel a bit around South Wales for work and it doesn't feel like a lock down anymore. It doesn't matter if the non essential shops are open or closed, the streets are busy, it doesn't matter if the play areas are closed, kids that are old enough to be out of the parent's sight are playing in them, it doesn't matter if the high schools are closed, kids are hanging out with their friends, it doesn't matter if the trail centres are closed, people are riding them etc etc etc.
People in Wales are hearing the 'UK' rules from Johnson, the sometimes vague rules from Drakeford, the Cummings' of the world are legitimatising rule breaking and just doing their own thing whilst Drakeford is stood on the shore ordering the tide.
Should add the Y number into the equation – the number of Years you need to keep a lockdown in place to maintain a particular R. I’m going to hypothesize Y goes up exponentially for a lower R.
Makes sense. I guess they don't have enough data to produce a Y rate. No one really knows how many people have had it or how many people have it.
It's an interesting point though, without a vaccine lowering the R rate is still 'flattening the curve' maybe it we had data on the number of recovered people we could calculate a rough figure on how many people currently have the virus and are contagious etc, but based on what is supposedly happening in Italy the virus is mutating to be more survivable, I don't know, it got shot down pretty quickly, but not disproved.
I don’t even remember if we can drive 5 miles to exercise
It says your 40 mile bike ride has to start and finish at home.
Personally I think Drakeford’s biggest problem is that they’re losing control
They know about this, they're accounting for some people flouting rules, some people sticking to them and others being even more cautious.
Lockdown has been over for weeks in reality ever since the whole Cummings thing everyone started having people over their houses going out more etc
Hasn't been any police "checkpoints" pulling people over like there was a few months ago.
The problem I see for Wales is going to be when things are relaxed and the border reopened as such is that everyone has been told to stay away for so long you are basically compressing all the tourists/Mountain bikers/holiday home onwers etc into a shorter space of time so you end up with them all coming at once. Probably make it harder to manage
Hasn’t been any police “checkpoints” pulling people over like there was a few months ago.
Not constant ones but there are patrols going round checking the honeypots. A few fines a day are being handed out in Snowdonia and the Brecon Beacons to people who have travelled long distances and parked in closed carparks. It's much more passive now compared to the original enforcement but they're still out there taking care of the people who are taking the piss.
Personally I think Drakeford’s biggest problem is that they’re losing control
I think his biggest problem is trying to exert too much control, and most people (myself included) think the downsides outweigh the benefits at this point. Unless you are a key worker with no family and don't mind not seeing your friends, life in Wales is now very different to life in England, and at the rate we are moving, will be that way for much too long.
they’re still out there taking care of the people who are taking the piss.
How dare they, crossing our borders, looking at our mountains!
Some of the logic is this thread seems a bit backwards, “the R number is lower in Wales so they should be reopening things” isn’t that the opposite of saying the r number is higher in England because they opened more things?
My comment about the R number was really me pondering what it meant...there's 2 ways of looking at it (at least):
1. Good job we've still got a strict lockdown, otherwise it would be as high as the SW of England
Or 2. Why are we still in such a strict lockdown when our R number is no better than in NE and E England where it's been relaxed
I don't know.
I'll just keep riding round the Gower...tho the bits to and from the house are getting a bit repetitive!
Its a bit daft having the same rules across Wales. Mid Wales could hardly be more different to the valleys. Its also pretty two faced of the Welsh Government, complaining that the devolved regions are different to England and then failing to distinguish between their own highly variable regions.
So, Wales is open to us lepers over the border as of Monday, right (unless I'm from Leicester, obvs)?
Brechfa will remain closed for a couple of months for tree harvesting.
So, Wales is open to us lepers over the border as of Monday, right (unless I’m from Leicester, obvs)?
Yeah I think so, worth checking if where you're planning to travel to is open though. BPW isn't open until later in the week and Llandegla is only open to people who pre-book and they're booked up (for weekends at least) for weeks and weeks.
BPW is meant to be starting to take bookings right about now.
No worries on that score, you couldn't pay me enough to go near a trail centre anytime soon. **** that, I'd be as likely to spend tomorrow evening in a Liverpool pub. I had other stuff in mind.
My static is open from next weekend, thank fark.