I know this topic has probably had the arse kicked out of it, but seriously WTAF is going on?! I’ve hear Brexit, Covid, Suez, container prices / shortages etc.
Surely this is now beyond a joke, I’ve been trying to order my son a new Trek Procaliber and Merlin say July 2022 and I got an email from Sigma basically saying sorry we are never gonna be able to get one!
I’ll not go into the debacle of me trying to order a particular Dura Ace 12sp groupset. Plus you can’t get Shimano disc pads for DA / Ultegra for love nor money.
Is the world going mad? How are companies still staying afloat if they can sell manufacture or anything?
Sounds like someone (me) moaning on about first world problems, but is it really? Surely it goes deeper than this.
Any thoughts?
No idea how companies are staying afloat tbh, but I’m kinda enjoying the lack of availability. I’ve sorta accepted that I can’t change the bikes I have and I need to just get out and ride and be happy with what I have. I don’t need any more than the hard tail I have with some older forks and a 1x11 grouoset. I’m happy with my basic heavy gravel bike with 3x9 gearing. I’m making my own packs for it.
You can get spares pretty easy if you haven’t got the latest kit.
I have lost the urge to get newer fancier kit as I’ve realised the only limit is myself and buying more kit never really improves the enjoyment of riding.
“ How are companies still staying afloat”
Apart from the fact that a big part of the problem in cycling was a surge in demand, you’re talking about companies that are historically successful businesses and thus likely to be able to get loans etc to keep them afloat until things become more normal.
It’s a great illustration of the risks of globalised manufacture and just in time supply chains.
How are companies still staying afloat
They sold everything they could put out at RRP for about a year.
Most cycle businesses should be quite comfortable at the moment, though I feel for bike shops unable to get stock to keep their turnover up now.
Bikes are coming back into stock all over the place now, but you'll need to be flexible on brand, model & spec - and move fast.
Plus you can’t get Shimano disc pads for DA / Ultegra for love nor money.
Flat mount calipers?
https://www.condorcycles.com/products/shimano-l03a-resin-disc-brake-pads?variant=33815652434058
About 34 min in to this podcast, Mike Sanderson gives a pretty good account of what’s been happening. https://singletrackworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/singletrack-podcast-cairn-cycles-and-the-adventure-1-0-egravel-bike/
They sold everything they could put out at RRP for about a year.
they did that in 2020, then jumped up the RRPs by 30% and did it again this year.
I wouldn't worry about bike companies, they have presold pretty much their whole 2022 stock having sold all their 2021 with minimal discounting.
Bike shops are another matter entirely...
Bikes and parts are available, you just can't be super picky and be prepared to pay full rrp.
Better bet is to go frame only and source your parts from whoever has stock, i have built up 2 bikes this year already, i used some old parts but I sourced more than a whole bikes worth of parts.
they did that in 2020, then jumped up the RRPs by 30% and did it again this year.
Prices have gone up, and it's particularly noticeable on cheaper bikes, because transport costs have massively increased. I haven't seen 30% last year and again this year on bikes though.
It’s a great illustration of the risks of globalised manufacture
True, but all the rubber for tyres comes from a limited part of the world, and if they can't supply it because of lockdowns or whatever, then it would make no difference where you build the rest of the bike. Don't forget that massive parts of the world are still being affected by Covid.
It’s the will of the people
It’s the will of the people
supply chain disruption on a global scale?
I wouldn’t worry about bike companies, they have presold pretty much their whole 2022 stock having sold all their 2021 with minimal discounting.
It's very much winners and losers out there, the bigger or more on the ball ones, with better forcasting and more resources are indeed well placed to overcome the curent difficulties but many of the smaller brands who have very little in-house production, run their inventories leaner and are used to working on a just in time basis are looking at having almost nothing to sell for most of 2022.
We are going to see a few brands go to the wall before this is over. Seems crazy when demand is so high but if you can't get your bikes to market....
Surprisingly in my 20+ years of biking and being serial upgrader/swapper of bikes !!
I’ve never been more settled with my current fleet 🙂
I’d have to remortgage to get anything better now 🙂 🙂
True, but all the rubber for tyres comes from a limited part of the world, and if they can’t supply it because of lockdowns or whatever, then it would make no difference where you build the rest of the bike.
Tyres (well top end road ones) are the one thing which seem widely available, bought half a dozen GP5000s in the last 18 months (wear through at least two pairs a year).
I’m obviously asking too much for my 2020 P7S which is in just about new condition, asking £850 less than new & not a sniff.
Must be cos it’s from Halifax. 😂😂🥺
Just so you know several bike frame factories in Asia have gone pop as they can’t get raw materials to actually make things and pay the bills. No lack of orders
18 months for forgings, 64 weeks for spoke nipples, over a year leadtimes for some types of metal. I’ve heard shimano ebike parts are 2024 delivery now…
Ive knocked several product lines on the head like thru axles as we can’t buy 2000kg of 7075 Swiss lathe bar till summer next year. Pedal axles have been a mare too. Lucky we have literally tons of metal instock as I forward order over a year in advance but not everything.
Shipping containers gone from £2500 to £15000 a box. That’s £40 on every imported wheelset…
We have bearly started to see the start of the shortages kick in worldwide. Don’t be surprised by 50% price increases next year
Neil SuperstarComponents
I’m obviously asking too much for my 2020 P7S which is in just about new condition, asking £850 less than new & not a sniff.
The secondhand prices bubble has burst now.
Dunno what the RRP was, but I know it won't have been cheap (knowing Orange).
Pedal axles have been a mare too
Don't say that, I've just bent one of my Nano axles.
on the total opposite of this.
i fancied a fat bike after a ride on one in scotland. i had a look at 2nd hand for a week. no good.
someone sent me a link to Winstanleys with a 2022 Kona Wo. i rang Winstanleys the same day, and the bike landed 5 days later.
Prices have gone up, and it’s particularly noticeable on cheaper bikes, because transport costs have massively increased. I haven’t seen 30% last year and again this year on bikes though.
You won't because a huge chunk of that was brexit. A company like Trek holds stock in the netherlands and then ships to the UK, immediate 14% price hit. Now add on the increased costs of shipping.
Personally expecting delivery from Trek in February, on something ordered beginning September
Surely this is now beyond a joke, I’ve been trying to order my son a new Trek Procaliber
Oh Ok. Thinking you can choose a specific models is very 2018. I can assumed you were going to say you couldn't find any bikes at all
These aren't in stock but they are available this year
https://alpkit.com/products/sonder-dial-gx-eagle
The OP lost me with you can’t get Shimano brake pads for love or money when they are clearly widely available on the web.
Dunno what the RRP was, but I know it won’t have been cheap (knowing Orange).
Currently the P7S is £2400. I didn’t pay anywhere near that though.
Quick straw poll of some LBS's I've been in over the last couple of weeks is that lower end bikes are becoming available and their stock was good, but pretty much zero higher end stock. Even the cheap stuff wasn't particularly cheap though!
Everyone here in Australia used to order from wiggle/crc/merlin. But now there's no stock and its more expensive than the locals.
The local webstores have loads of stock and better prices.
Dunno it its cos we're handy for Asia and no hgv issues, or what
Even the cheap stuff wasn’t particularly cheap though!
That’s due to the freight costs Neil mentioned above.
The landed cost of a bike that retailed for around £250 has practically doubled.
I’ve heard shimano ebike parts are 2024 delivery now
Not quite - Its not before mid 2024. You won't get to know when for a year or more after you order.... Uuurrggghhhhhh. Try running a bike business when you won't know for a year after you order when you will get it. I ordered some disc brakes recently, discs - 1 month (Yay!), clamps for the brakes 18 months, not so great, actual brakes, we'll get back to you, but no chance of it being before 2024.
Its not awesomes out there.
It’s a strange situation for sure. A lot of decent components are unavailable yet the second hand bike market has popped too. I’ve been trying to sell a mid level road and a similar ht MTB for a few weeks and no takers, so will likely sit tight till the Spring and try again.
Quick straw poll of some LBS’s I’ve been in over the last couple of weeks is that lower end bikes are becoming available and their stock was good
Yep my LBS seems to get regular drops of commuter / town bikes.
Popped into Sigma and they had loads of stuff in stock including all the impossible to find gravel builds from mid panic. Prob just not fussed with Trek but Specialized, Orbea, Cervelo and Bianchi was all there. Prob just have to be a bit more open about your chosen steed. Few other places nearby appear ok stocked for bikes despite being between seasons.
Popular group set components is another matter…
Most bike cos run on pre-orders, so lots of bikes are getting built with components that have come through in the time expected, so you will see stuff arriving for the next few months, but then after that its going to get really thin on the ground as lead times have shot up by months at a time if not years. Somewhere down the line that really starts to bite hard.
Pretty much every bike shop around here (Milton Keynes) has got stock of bikes, including the Trek store. Might be worth popping into your LBS but recognise that you’ll be paying sticker price and will have to be less choosy.
Thanks for the feedback, some has been helpful and some hilarious!
‘Need to be less choosy?’ Erm if I’m paying £3.5k plus on a group set, then I want the crank lengths to be the ones I actually want - I personally don’t think that’s unreasonable?
Secondly - if someone can post a link to Shimano L03A Resin Disc Brake Pads I’d be most grateful. (I’m happy to be proved wrong)
Thirdly - Paying full rrp yet being less choosy over what make and model bike? Seriously WTAF!
Are we really accepting this bollox? This is like walking into The Ivy for dinner ordering steak and them saying, no steak mate but you can have beans on toast, but you’re gonna have to pay the price for the steak, oh and you have to come back next week for it even though you have a table booked now.
Or yeah pre order - give us £3k now for the Trek, we will take your dough, sit on it for an undisclosed amount of time, then maybe we will get you the bike next year or maybe we won’t and then we will after a few months refund your money! This happened to me with a £300 jacket this year which was annoying enough -but £3k is a different matter.
I’m sorry if this offends some people, but personally I feel we are giving it the Emperor's New Clothes and accepting shyte service as an acceptable norm.
As an analogy - has anyone tried buying a new Rolex steel watch at the minute? The dealers are having a proper laugh on this one with all sorts of games - the difference is most people wanting one aren’t bending over for them and are going to the grey market. (No I don’t own or wear a Rolex).
Are we really accepting this bollox?
Feel free to suggest ways to solve the current supply problems.
"Are we really accepting this bollox?"
Im with the above poster, feel free to post any suggestions to me
"Or yeah pre order – give us £3k now for the Trek, we will take your dough, sit on it for an undisclosed amount of time, then maybe we will get you the bike next year or maybe we won’t and then we will after a few months refund your money! This happened to me with a £300 jacket this year which was annoying enough -but £3k is a different matter."
If this has happened then its poor from a bike shop.
I cant speak for everyone but personally we at my place of work are trying our very hardest to get (quality) bikes into peoples hands that suit their needs and budgets as fast as possible.
It's insanely difficult with much time spent making telephone calls and sending emails to facilitate this with unreliable ETAs and unknown timelines and constantly moving of bike prices.
I appreciate that many will have had negative experiences and crappy experience with their local shops but it has been a bit of a ride for the bike industry in the last two years!
Secondly – if someone can post a link to Shimano L03A Resin Disc Brake Pads I’d be most grateful. (I’m happy to be proved wrong)
Ebay and amazon both stock these 🤷♂️
I mean that really is easy. Plenty of options.
‘Need to be less choosy?’ Erm if I’m paying £3.5k plus on a group set, then I want the crank lengths to be the ones I actually want – I personally don’t think that’s unreasonable?
yes, if the components don't exist.
the days of what you want whenever you want it are gone (for now, hopefully)
Are we really accepting this
Not sure if you didn't get the memo, but a few people around the world haven't quite been feeling the Mae West of late?
😂
Sadly the days of being able to easily find exactly what we want, when we want it and at a knock down price are over.
If you want to buy a bike right now you are looking at sacrificing at least one of those factors.
And it's not the shops', or even the brands' fault. Everything is pretty messed up right now.
Four Mantel.com have the LO3A currently back in stock. Stock has been coming in the last couple of days. Struggled to get some in august(no more stock at that place). Had a stock alert on a cheap french place alert came in tuesday but they are again sold out today(got some coming today normally) you need to move fast.
I notice a reluctance from local bike shops to sell parts. I suppose if they are harder to get a hold of they are better off keeping the key parts for workshop use. Brake pads however are readily available on the web. L03A
Have a look on EBay and you will probably get them cheaper. I stocked up at the beginning of the year from EBay.
Are we really accepting this bollox?
Quick question - did you vote Leave in 2016 and/or Tory in 2019? If so you literally voted to make life harder for yourself, this is just the 1st World stuff - wait for next year for more 'pressing' shortages.
.... such as
https://www.bigissue.com/news/food-shortages-boris-johnson-treating-the-uk-like-one-big-tesco/
Mibbe buy him used bike? Or a different brand?. I bought a new bike a couple of months ago, and I now reckon it will be my last new bike, I'll go used from now on.
Are we really accepting this bollox?
This is what happens when cycling stops being about riding and becomes about micro-commoditisation of bikes and componentry. I would hit the manufacturers where it hurts by not buying the components that they cannot supply. That'll learn 'em.
Ranty stuff
on second thoughts, please don’t pay a visit to any of my local bike shops. I don’t think you fit in very well.
Pretty chuffed that my Privateer 161 in still due in November...for now!
Quick question – did you vote Leave in 2016 and/or Tory in 2019? If so you literally voted to make life harder for yourself, this is just the 1st World stuff – wait for next year for more ‘pressing’ shortages.
It has nothing to do with Brexit, there has been a Worldwide pandemic, did you miss that one?
Being less choosy = Instead of the Trek that might take 18 months to arrive, look at other brands which might be in stock now or sooner.
It's not something that's really appropriate to get all angry about. They're not doing it to you on purpose.
You can get brake pads and cassettes and things from AliExpress. Show up in about a week.
I needed a new 11 speed xt mech. Merlin selling it over RRP. I emailed them to ask if it was correct, as they are normally very competitive and I use them a lot. Yep, priced correctly at £100! Thankfully I found it much cheaper elsewhere. But the first case of selling over RRP I've seen.
RRP is £95, so not exactly wild? Odd for those price shaggers right enough.
What's a price shagger?
Perhaps £100 will be the new RRP and others selling them cheaper have older stock.
It has nothing to do with Brexit, there has been a Worldwide pandemic, did you miss that one?
It has everything to do with Brexit. 20 peeps have applied to make use of the HGV visas. Felixstowe processes a third of U.K. containers, has two berths for the largest container ships and has just stopped Maersk and Evergreen (who own the largest ships) from stacking empties at Felixstowe because there’s no more space which means empties are diverted to other ports requiring additional HGV hours. Maersk have stopped routing ships via Felixstowe and are offloading in other European ports before transhipping in smaller vessels. Delivery times have gone from 50 to 70 plus days.
And the reason for all of this? There are simply not enough lorry drivers. And why are there not enough lorry drivers - Brexit and the Tories ability to make a hash of everything they touch.
I don’t have solutions - hence original post on this thread asking questions.
Still no links to L03A in the UK……
I’ve absolutely no objection to RRP, none at all - if it’s for the product I want.
Sounds to me that some people are happy to live in a USSR type position - each to their own I guess.
None of this is about entitlement- riding for me is a hobby not a right and I accept that completely. My point is why are we still in such a shit state of affairs where next to bugger all is available. Maybe we should go back to the original Henry Ford concept of you can have exactly the model and colour you’d like as long as it’s this one and in black.
.
It has everything to do with Brexit......
And the reason for all of this? There are simply not enough lorry drivers. And why are there not enough lorry drivers – Brexit and the Tories ability to make a hash of everything they touch.
So, lorry deliveries in the UK are stopping vital bike deliveries from Taiwan?
Get real, it is worldwide. See a post above, Taiwanese factories are shutting down as they can't buy the raw materials. The lorry driver shortage is pretty universal, Germany, Spain, the Nordic Countries and the USA are having the same problems at the moment with lack of drivers, the LA port has had to go to 24 hour opening this week, as there are nearly 100 ships waiting to be unloaded (why wasnt it 24hs anyway?). Felixstowe (according to R4 this morning) has one ship waiting to be unloaded.
That's all down to Brexit then?
Add in the container and pallet shortage worldwide, and you can see why people are struggling to get things delivered. 65000 containers are, apparently, waiting to go back to China from the UK. That's because there was a pause in shipping due to Covid, nothing to do with Brexit.
Brexit is a notable compounding factor though, making imports more expensive and time-consuming for both businesses and individuals (e.g. can't buy from German retailers with good stock & low prices so easily now).
Get real, it is worldwide.
Everyone here in Australia used to order from wiggle/crc/merlin. But now there’s no stock and its more expensive than the locals.The local webstores have loads of stock and better prices.
Delivery times have gone from 50 to 70 plus days
I agree with your sentiment, Brexit is stupid and shit, but 20 days added on to delivery is irrelevant when lead times for many individual components from Taiwan, etc have slipped to >18 months.
Still not good, but not the cause here. Try telling Americans with much the same supply issues that it’s because of Brexit?
Felixstowe (according to R4 this morning) has one ship waiting to be unloaded.
That’s all down to Brexit then?
Anything on this side of La Manche is mostly aggravated by Brexit. See also lack of care assistants, butchers, abbatoir staff and veg pickers. In the Far East COVID is still being treated seriously and plants are being shut to prevent the spread of the disease.
So, lorry deliveries in the UK are stopping vital bike deliveries from Taiwan?
Get real, it is worldwide. See a post above, Taiwanese factories are shutting down as they can’t buy the raw materials. The lorry driver shortage is pretty universal, Germany, Spain, the Nordic Countries and the USA are having the same problems at the moment with lack of drivers, the LA port has had to go to 24 hour opening this week, as there are nearly 100 ships waiting to be unloaded (why wasnt it 24hs anyway?). Felixstowe (according to R4 this morning) has one ship waiting to be unloaded.
That’s all down to Brexit then?
Add in the container and pallet shortage worldwide, and you can see why people are struggling to get things delivered. 65000 containers are, apparently, waiting to go back to China from the UK. That’s because there was a pause in shipping due to Covid, nothing to do with Brexit.
And what happens when bikes/parts/any bulk consumer gets off the boat? It waits it's turn for a HGV and driver, which there are less of. Because of BREXIT.
Oh and guess what? Those stores in Germany and France that you used to use for quick and easy access to parts and bikes, no so quick and easy is it now, because of BREXIT.
Brexit has it's slimy tentacles in pretty much every supply chain in the UK in some way or another.
Sounds to me that some people are happy to live in a USSR type position – each to their own I guess.
Perhaps unintentionally you appear to be blaming the manufacturers and retailers. But pandemics or no pandemic the underlying structural issues we are faced with are predominantly a matter of Tory government policy and poor management (to put it mildly) by the current government.
‘Need to be less choosy?’ Erm if I’m paying £3.5k plus on a group set, then I want the crank lengths to be the ones I actually want – I personally don’t think that’s unreasonable?
Totally acceptable position. Just don't expect to buy one soon if what you want is what everyone else wants.
We've stopped pre-orders on almost every line as the supply side is too unreliable right now. If your supplier gives you a date or a shop tells you your bike will be available in any lead time significantly greater than the transport time from factory to shop then don't trust it. It's probably bollocks. That doesn't mean don't order it, just don't lose your **** when it doesn't show as expected. It probably won't, you have been warned!
benpinnick
We’ve stopped pre-orders on almost every line as the supply side is too unreliable right now. If your supplier gives you a date or a shop tells you your bike will be available in any lead time significantly greater than the transport time from factory to shop then don’t trust it. It’s probably bollocks. That doesn’t mean don’t order it, just don’t lose your **** when it doesn’t show as expected. It probably won’t, you have been warned!
I am just over three weeks away from my new frame being shipped and I did not hear what you just said
I am just over three weeks away from my new frame being shipped and I did not hear what you just said
Ah, but which 3 weeks, the ones the manufacturer is referring to, the ones the importer is referring to, the ones the supplier is referring to or the ones you're referring to?
So, lorry deliveries in the UK are stopping vital bike deliveries from Taiwan?
Get real, it is worldwide.
Brexit is a serious compounding factor for the OP though. As other posters have mentioned Brexit has compounded the HGV shortage but it has also made life really difficult for non-British brands like Trek. Before Brexit Trek could ship its stock-holding all aver Europe (including UK) without worrying about import duty after it's been paid entering the EU. Now Trek can't move stock from the E.U to U.K without double paying the 'country of origin' import duty. Therefore Trek have to forecast (or in other words gamble) where the majority of the demand/profit will be with regards to E.U and U.K when allocating stock to warehouses.
So with limited supply if you were Trek where would you be allocating stock?
Get real, it is worldwide
Yes, I don't think anyone thinks that it isn't, but most countries haven't, on purpose, put up barriers to that recovery in the same way that we have. Places like Taiwan are used to shipping to the EU, now they have to ship to both the EU and the UK, and the rules about shipping to the UK aren't clear, especially in terms of how much extra it'll cost...The upside of which is; they'll ship first to the places they know the rules.
Brexit, at most, is making the issue slightly worse in the UK then the EU, it's not the root of all these issues though. In my industry we buy fibre from China, one of the producers we work with has delayed an order indefinitly, they have no power to run the factory:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58733193
This could get much worse before it gets better....
Still no links to L03A in the UK……
Seriously? I wasn't even trying...
https://www.ebay.co.uk/p/5032301213
https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/353671666831?hash=item5258795c8f:g:aikAAOSwmJFhPu5y
https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/165128586033?hash=item26726e4331:g:NpwAAOSwG8BhaEoR
Cheers!
I.
Brexit is pointlessly making things worse but it’s mostly a pandemic issue.
We have loudspeaker drivers custom made in the USA, lead time normally about 6-8 weeks. When I last ordered some (way before we normally would) in May I was told a 12 week lead time. That production batch still hasn’t been made because essential parts are on a ship somewhere in the Pacific. We’re hoping them to be done mid-November and because of the problems with shipping I’m expecting them to take weeks longer than usual to get to this side of the Atlantic.
And bear in the mind the pro audio industry had the opposite of the cycling industry - a massive fall in demand because who needs PA systems etc when all gigs are cancelled?
@benpinnick thank you mate I appreciate your time.
You're very welcome, its carnage out there in bike land at the moment! It will fix itself, maybe by 2025.
Well thanks for the links chaps for pads - just bought a set of LO3A £40!
Perhaps I am naïve but I thought things were starting to improve slightly? More bikes are popping up to buy, for example Wiggle had Vitus bikes back in stock a week or so ago and I have seen a few others.
Some Shimano 12 speed and brake spares are starting to pop up at Merlin, Tredz and a few other places, the german retailers are managing to get parcels here within a week and the second hand bike market looks to be less bonkers than 3 months ago.
Obviously there is still a long way to go and those are just my findings but I was a little bit hopeful...
Be a good idea to use Google in future as searching for "LO3A" brought up quite a few places to buy them...
🤦♂️
Neil. SuperstarComponents
£23.99 and in stock according to their website