[Closed] the bike industry is suffering

Does anyone actually care that they aren't selling as many bikes?

I remember the time I had a 9 speed road bike.... I had two 9 speed mtbs...
I felt quite secure in the knowledge that I could swap parts from one bike to the other, but did I ever need to? .... No
I did however, enjoy swapping frames/ forks and components, upgrading and changing to trial things knowing that it would get used on one of my bikes.

I now have 1,10, 20, 11 and 22 speed bikes with threaded, press fit, tapered, 1 1/8th", 135mm, 142mm, 12mm, 15mm, integrated, semi integrated, you name it...

Do I get any less enjoyment from riding my bikes now they are less compatible... No.
Do I miss being able to swap components and make tweaks to ensure they were all compatible with each other- a bit- yes.

I'll still buy bikes, I'll still buy 2nd hand, I'll be proud of all my bikes and the technologies and manufacturing techniques involved.

What I am having to do is be much more savvy in terms of what I buy and when I buy it.

mickmcd - Member
just ordered the lmx2

is there an emoticon for awesome

I’m actually seriously considering getting one to use in Greece, the advantage being relative silence compared to a I/C engine, which means that you can get away with riding more places without causing offence.
Not as a substitute for mtb’s but for something different, with the ability to ride up stuff that no e-bike would be capable of.

I could swap parts from one bike to the other, but did I ever need to? .... No

Where is the point at which preserving backwards compatibility outweighs the need to progress?

Wheel size? Headtube?

Does anyone actually care that they aren't selling as many bikes?

TBF I think we'd mostly forgotten the OP and were busy choosing our individual positions on "new vs old" and how much we fancy being dicks about it...

On a related note, I was out earlier on my 100/130 spaced, rim braked, 10 speed (it'll happily take 11 speed) road bike, I'm actually not all that sure the manufacturers will manage to pull the same thing with road bikes that they have with MTBs, a decent road bike will happily go for a decade, discs haven't proven to be quite the selling point they hoped, "Road+“ really seems more like a Gravel thing... The basic format of road bikes is going to be a much harder thing to displace with shiny new things...

On the point of prices things have been fairly stable here in Oz except when we get a big currency shift at the wrong time. The 2017 bike I got now actually has a lower RRP on the 2018 version !! Gross Profiteering if I ever saw it 😉

Also for those denying that currency has impacted prices etc.
Are wages going up by the same amount as inflation?
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/inflation-cpi
ie do you have more of less money in your pocket at the end of the year? Are there a million people who now would like to retain that extra £500/1000 or simply don't have it anymore?

I recently wrecked the Fox fork on my 2012 Ghost and really struggled to find another one. Fortunately I was put on to a brilliant local service guy who saved them. Cost me £250 and yes, if I added up what I spent over the last couple of years it'd be a sizeable chunk of a deposit on a new bike, but with a young family etc, it's a lot easier to find a couple of hundred at a time than £Ks in one go.

As for the industry suffering, I've read stories bemoaning the lack of young riders. If there really is a lack of younger riders to subsequently grow into 20 somethings with the disposable cash to buy new bikes, who *is* going to buy them? I used to be that but I'm now mid thirties with mouths to feed, and by the time people pass that stage they're older and savvier to marketing ways. I know it's a cliche but that does just leave the IT consultant from Surrey.

I'm also tiring of the Enduro thing. Very few of us need a big, expensive bike like that, but we're exposed to it all the time in the mags etc as the King of Cool. I wonder if there's a fatigue there.

I suppose in relation to the op, I would like to see the ok industry do well but it's been clear for a while that they're desperately looking for the next n+1.
There's nothing wrong with gravel bikes, or for that matter road discs and e bikes, but none of these are for everyone. As I've said on pretty much every road disc thread- they're fine but don't actually make you go faster-unlike MTB discs where you really need the consistent braking performance to descend well.
I guess the way I'd like to see the industry do well is through selling a lot of bikes to get from a to b on, and taking cars out of cities in the process, but that part of the market can only grow with the right things going on in society and it's not that suitable bikes don't exist. To some degree I feel the ebikes undermine this as they give the impression that a normal person can't use a bike to get around without £1000 worth of motor and batteries strapped to it.

I'll highlight again that the average cost of a new bike in the UK is around £300. Retro-grouches aren't having a major effect on new bike sales, nor are folk who think £2k is a good price point but £4k is too much.

I do reckon that C2W has peaked. Folk who bought into the idea of it for commuting and leisure bought a bike, used it a few times and it's now languishing in a garage or stairwell.

The one thing that might increase sales figures significantly isn't a slow down in standards or cheaper XT groupsets, it's an investment in dedicated cycle routes for commuters.

"new vs old" and how much we fancy being dicks about it...

yeah, I think there's always a bit of this in these discussions, if you've bought a bike in about 2012, it must suck balls, pretty much everything has changed since then...

I'll highlight again that the average cost of a new bike in the UK is around £300

Very good point and makes pretty much all the arguments on here moot.

People who buy £300 bikes;
Don't know or care about standards
Have never heard of a gravel bike
Would not be able to tell the difference between a 2018 model and a 1998 model

As for the industry suffering, I've read stories bemoaning the lack of young riders. If there really is a lack of younger riders to subsequently grow into 20 somethings with the disposable cash to buy new bikes, who *is* going to buy them?

I coach with a kids club in Glasgow, we have overs 130 members aged 8-16 and a waiting list of around 50. The riders are not all from affluent families. Bikes are a mix, not many BSO’s, so a mixture of Hoy, Frog, Isla towards the upper end. A lot of them are hand downs and second hand. We also can supply bikes in limited numbers to kids who don’t have suitable ones. Watching my own teenagers spend birthday and Christmas money on gaming and clothes etc, I don’t think bikes are that unaffordable in their scale of things generally.

I currently only have one bike. I generally sell to buy new parts and can honestly say, no matter what the trends or standard is, there is still an appetite to second hands bikes and parts - and I'm just a cog in that wheel supplying it.

But on the flip side, with some careful, shrewd shopping, I 'upgraded' to 650b for the grand sum of about £80. That's wheels, tyres and forks, all brand new. If I bought at RRP would have set me back well over a grand - now I can continue my future proofed spending spree, ready to pass down when the time comes.

I guess what I am saying is, it really depends how you look at it, whether or nor you think the bike industry is struggling.

Do we have evidence of this £300 figure? I'm asking as I'd have guessed it closer to £500...not a huge hike but still a bit more.

Edit: that sounds like I'm accusing you for that figure, it isn't intended as that, was meant to be a general question.

On the note about kids bikes...look at the Isla bikes 'pro' range (or whatever it is called) - eye watering costs...and yet parents are willing to pay but do most of the kids get the real benefit from them (actually, what is the real benefit?). It appears to be an excuse to take money rather than sell a real-world benefit at a good price (good price is also up for debate). People are being fleeced but depending on how deep you are in and how deep your pockets are, you won't notice it as much as people on the fringes.

jonostevens - bloke:

I recently wrecked the Fox fork on my 2012 Ghost and really struggled to find another one.

Personally think this is a huge problem. 5 year old bike?
These problems with forks which are older than 3 years you hear a lot.
I bought one where I need a new wheel now...

Fox doesn't care about customers which have a 5 year old Fox fork?
Crazy.

[url= http://www.bikebiz.com/news/read/average-price-of-a-bike-is-just-233/016304 ]it was £233 four years ago apparently [/url]

[url= http://www.bikebiz.com/news/read/uk-bike-sales-rise-8/018554 ]up to £253ish in 2015...[/url]

[url= http://www.bikebiz.com/news/read/bike-sales-dip-in-the-netherlands-stable-in-rest-of-eu/019957 ]useful 2016 round up of the EU bicycle market. [/url] (the UK was apparently 17% of the market at that point)

Based on the trajectory of prices over the last few years a £300 average sounds credible, remember its an average, C2W will drag it towards £1k, BSOs down towards £100, it settles out around the £300 mark... No doubt there will be more published stats available somewhere.

You need to remember that STW (and other forums) will tend to give a skewed picture as they're full of enthusiasts spending more than the average (even the "cheapskates")...

I'll highlight again that the average cost of a new bike in the UK is around £300

I think one thing you may not be taking into account is enthusiasts raving about their new bike and cycling in general.

10 years ago when I got my first 160mm trail bike I would rave about it to friends and co-workers whether they were interested or not. I found it amazing that a bike that would have been dominating the downhill scene just a few years ago could go up hills almost as well as a XC bike from a few years ago (might have been exaggerating a bit but the leap in performance from 1997 to 2007 makes the increase in performance between 2007 and 2017 seem non-existent).

Now if I talk about bikes at all it's to lament the fact that there has been little progress in the last 10 years except that the industry is constantly trying to make last year's bike obsolete.

It's not really a good advertisement for cycling and this may well have a trickle down effect to people who are considering buying their first £300 bike.

From 2014... http://www.bikebiz.com/news/read/average-price-of-a-bike-is-just-233/016304

Although I've also found this from Cycling UK

https://www.cyclinguk.org/resources/cycling-uk-cycling-statistics#How many cycles are sold in Great Britain?

Suggesting £480. That's quite a jump from previous figures and I wonder if there's an accounting difference.

10 years ago when I got my first 160mm trail bike I would rave about it to friends and co-workers whether they were interested or not.
(Snip)

Now if I talk about bikes at all it's to lament the fact that there has been little progress in the last 10 years except that the industry is constantly trying to make last year's bike obsolete.

You really prefer to talk to coworkers about this, rather than explaining injuries or where you’ve been?

Do you actually ride a bike?

I just explained your post to my girlfriend who rides what’s probably the first iteration of the “Road+” Bike in the uk (I called it BMinus) and she was highly confused. She just rides that bike.

Thankfully, people aren’t being put off cycling because of you condemning flat mount brake standards to your colleagues.

And yes, as per Onion’s post, the audience here is so irrelevant to the bike mass market it’s almost incidental.

or where you’ve been?

Do you actually ride a bike?

you can ride you bike without having to travel anywhere or does it only count if you go to the alps ?

you can ride you bike without having to travel anywhere or does it only count if you go to the alps ?

The only way you can ride a bike without going anywhere is on one of those turbo trainer things.

Interestingly the Dutch apparently spend about twice what we do (on average) given "cycling as transport" is more the Dutch MO, where in the UK we seem to treat it more as a leasure/sport activity and keep pointing towards the "Dutch model" for cycling infrastructure improvements.

I do wonder if the UK cycle industry should consider adjusting their focus towards supporting infrastructure improvements and getting more people regularly cycling for transport, it could drag up their average sale value, grow profits as well as sales volumes.

Like I said several pages back, £8k wundersleds are not actually the most important part of the market...

It’s going to be fascinating to watch the development of bikes as urban transportation bearing in mind the increasing influx of hire or sharing based models (from Boris to Mobike et al)

How this will affect the market for consumer owned models is going to be really interesting to watch, much as how the car market is affected by autonomous vehicles

You really prefer to talk to coworkers about this, rather than explaining injuries or where you’ve been?

Do you actually ride a bike?

Well, I have two kids now so yes, I do tell them that almost all my riding consists of taking the kids to the nursery in the trailer and grabbing an hour in the hill near my house when I can but that doesn't take long.

But yes, ten years ago I did spend a lot of time telling them how amazing my new bike was because I was genuinely amazed. I would talk about riding but it tended to be things like, 'Can you believe that I took my bike down the Fort William World Cup track, (oh you don't know what that is, well trust me, it's one of the toughest tracks in the world) and the next day I rode the same bike up a munroe. No way you could do that with the same bike just a few years ago.'

But yeah, I'm not one of these people who doesn't care about bikes and only wants to ride. I enjoy tinkering and trying new things out. Recently I put 3" wide tyres on a 24" rim to see how it did in the snow so maybe I talk about the bikes rather than the riding more than most people.

Sorry if that doesn't live up to your standards of what a mountain biker should be.

ten years ago I did spend a lot of time telling them how amazing my new bike was because I was genuinely amazed. I would talk about riding but it tended to be things like, 'Can you believe that I took my bike down the Fort William World Cup track, (oh you don't know what that is, well trust me, it's one of the toughest tracks in the world) and the next day I rode the same bike up a munroe. No way you could do that with the same bike just a few years ago.'

**** knows what they must have made of that Bruce.

Half the bikes in Britain cost less than your suspension forks and the most popular tv programme is Mrs Browns Boys.

Never mind what I might think. They must think you’re nuts.

Never mind what I might think. They must think you’re nuts.

Well yeah, but that doesn't have as much to do with me talking about mountain biking as you might think 🙂

And it didn't do enough to stop a couple of them buying bikes and coming out riding with me.

3 inch tires on 24 inch rims .... were you not around in the late 90s?

People who buy £300 bikes;
Don't know or care about standards
Have never heard of a gravel bike
Would not be able to tell the difference between a 2018 model and a 1998 model

I witnessed this perfectly on Xmas day at my stepdaughters house. A relation of hers said he needed to/couldn't wait to get out on the bike & I asked was it a road bike or MTB. MTB says he, so naturally I asked what it was, 'ohh err, (looks at his Mrs) dunno, what is again dear? (she'd got him it for Xmas) & she says, 'I don't know but it's black'.
So he seemed eager to ride it but didn't know what he was riding!

So he seemed eager to ride it but didn't know what he was riding!

in other words: happy bloke

It's true, BruceWee is a serial tinkerer.

I was going to argue with his point about bikes not coming on over the past 10-15 or so years, but he's got a good point. I have a 2005 coiler that would take on anything (though it was bought a bit small for me, and cheap, a couple of years ago).

I had a chat with a guy at work that's mildly interested in biking from the perspective of being reasonably outdoorsy, he was genuinely surprised that a reasonably rideable bike could be taken up Ben Lomond and ridden (99% of the way unless you're a trials rider with some serious amount of bottle) down without damage.

My newer (lighter and 29er) bikes will be *a bit* faster uphill and along the flat, but the difference would be minimal if the coiler fitted me properly and you're right, progress has been incremental - although I was gagging for a full sus 29er after finally getting around to putting together a 29er HT which in most places performed as well as the coiler down hills.

I can't really get across to the man in the street, or even the man on the hills, that my newer bike is very slighty better rolling, but many would be impressed at what any trail bike from the past 10 years or so could do. On the other hand, cheaper and cheaper bikes have been becoming OK enough to not cringe when someone says they're buying one - £500 MTBs are still OK, despite now having suspension forks and hydraulic disc brakes, and inflation meaning this is really a much lower price point.

C2W allowance hasn't increased from £1k either despite inflation and this can't help, but again you can get an OK bike for commuting for £1k.

So he seemed eager to ride it but didn't know what he was riding!

Exactly. Doubt he was too concerned about bottom bracket standards, in fact I would put money on him not even being able to point to the bottom bracket.

I was going to argue with his point about bikes not coming on over the past 10-15 or so years, but he's got a good point. I have a 2005 coiler that would take on anything (though it was bought a bit small for me, and cheap, a couple of years ago).

I had a chat with a guy at work that's mildly interested in biking from the perspective of being reasonably outdoorsy, he was genuinely surprised that a reasonably rideable bike could be taken up Ben Lomond and ridden (99% of the way unless you're a trials rider with some serious amount of bottle) down without damage.

My newer (lighter and 29er) bikes will be *a bit* faster uphill and along the flat, but the difference would be minimal if the coiler fitted me properly and you're right, progress has been incremental - although I was gagging for a full sus 29er after finally getting around to putting together a 29er HT which in most places performed as well as the coiler down hills.

I can't really get across to the man in the street, or even the man on the hills, that my newer bike is very slighty better rolling, but many would be impressed at what any trail bike from the past 10 years or so could do.

The best ride I've *ever* had was a two day trip up the middle bit of the West Highland Way on an £109 Apollo Forma.

It’s going to be fascinating to watch the development of bikes as urban transportation bearing in mind the increasing influx of hire or sharing based models (from Boris to Mobike et al)

How this will affect the market for consumer owned models is going to be really interesting to watch, much as how the car market is affected by autonomous vehicles

Yes, it'll be interesting - apparently private hire car usage is way up, mostly due to Uber et al, so it doesn't even have to be autonomous. Though there are indications that that modal share isn't coming from car drivers, it's coming from bus and train users, so it's not good.

How this'll work with the bike industry no-one knows. The UK doesn't do much non-leisure cycling at the moment, the hire schemes might do a lot to get more people thinking about using bikes for transport, especially if electric bike schemes get off the ground and work well.

Cycling infrastructure is what'll really decide it.

I have for many years bought frames and components and always constantly upgraded my builds, and honestly really enjoyed the process. Maybe not a typical buyer, but for me a big part of the enjoyment of the hobby.

I bought some 26” Enves for my Santa Cruz pretty much just at the time that everybody then went to 27.5”.

I then bought a 27.5” Yeti frane, again speccing carbon wheels, and almost immediately everybody went to boost meaning my 27.5” wheels with 142mm hub are now useless to upgrade to the next new frame.

I honestly felt rather ****** off at this experience and decided I was kind of done with the luxury brands. Last couple of years have spent money other hobbies (Ducati road bike, Kawasaki ATV) where I dont feel I wil get totally flip flopped by the brands I support.

Biking and windsurfing have both give mental. A reasonable bike costing what to plenty of people is a months salary.... And we're talking with deore kit etc. Windsurfing boards are now £2k for a lump of polystyrene with a limited amount of carbon.

Someone somewhere is doing very very well out of this. Hopefully the interest free credit lark will end soon!

How the hell do manufacturers justify a £6k mountain bike, there's not exactly many parts to a bike especially when you can buy a bloody motorbike for the same money.

It's a hobby, we're all deemed as wealthy, therefore a target to get shafted. Don't even get me started on carbon.....

How the hell do manufacturers justify a £6k mountain bike, there's not exactly many parts to a bike especially when you can buy a bloody motorbike for the same money.

Economies of scale - motorbikes are made in much bigger numbers, and most of the bits (like the engine) don't completely change every year. It's not the number of parts, it's how expensive those parts are to make.

I think infrastructure is possibly one of the best points made thus far....

We here on this forum are probably the least likely to have an impact upon sales figures, however our money is very much valued. However this fact is irrelevant.

I firmly believe that education and culture will have a big impact upon bike sales. We need to invest more in raising awareness of the benefits of cycling, not just for leisure but for commuting too.

As for the rental scheme, can anyone remember seeing this in the news ....

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/nov/25/chinas-bike-share-graveyard-a-monument-to-industrys-arrogance

How the hell do manufacturers justify a £6k mountain bike, there's not exactly many parts to a bike especially when you can buy a bloody motorbike for the same money

Economies of scale, plus you could buy a mountain bike for £1k.

Try buying a motorbike with a carbon frame for £6k. Even try buying a rolling carbon chassis for £6k.

There does seem to be a lot of fat in the bike industry, there's certainly some pricing to the market, but a lot of it comes down to (relatively) low volumes and associated manufacturing techniques.

How the hell do manufacturers justify a £6k mountain bike, there's not exactly many parts to a bike especially when you can buy a bloody motorbike for the same money.

this thread, this discusssion: lot's about the £6k and £8k sled.
Many voices that this is not the part where the "bike industry" is suffering. Many say it's the £400 bike market which is suffering.

But your point jonesyboy-bloke:
Thinking about this as well.

Goofy calculation:

12 kg sled and £6000
is £500 per kg sled
for high end mountain bike

Price for an A380 airplane (quickly googled. not sure if this is 100%right)
around £ 400 000 000
weight about 560 000 kg
is £ 700 per kg airplane

(if this calculation is wrong I will blame my calculator...) 😉

Means a high end mounatin bike is in an £ / kg range of a modern, certified airplane.

If this is justified or not I can't say.
My "feeling" was: a bike is not space technology...?

Production numbers: A380 manufactured in very low numbers, high end mountain bikes in very high numbers...- bit surprised so that they nearly sell for the same £ / kg rate...
😯

Whilst the above is a good rough calculation, the bike industry will sell stuff for as much as they can ....
Hence bespoke stuff going for silly money ... but the risk is the consumer gets alienated

The bubble for boutique stuff is declining as the added vale is marginal ...

The best ride I've *ever* had was a two day trip up the middle bit of the West Highland Way on an £109 Apollo Forma.

It's a nice place to ride, and if you're mechanically competent and sympathetic I'm sure you could have fun on it.

It's not about the bike (even for those of us that can't afford the good drugs).

Production numbers: A380 manufactured in very low numbers, high end mountain bikes in very high numbers...- bit surprised so that they nearly sell for the same £ / kg rate...

Thinking about this. Mmmmhhhh...

Numbers I heard from a guy who is working at one of the big hig end mountain bike brands:

unpainted high end aluminium full suspension frame made in Asia, excellent quality, ready for assembly: around 150 £

purchasing rate:
£ / kg
for easy numbers assume 1.5 kg very low weight full suspension frame
100 £ / kg purchasing from Asia (frame only)

Whilst the above is a good rough calculation, the bike industry will sell stuff for as much as they can

Whereas every other industry just gives stuff away if you ask nicely?

unpainted high end aluminium full suspension frame made in Asia, excellent quality, ready for assembly: around 150 £

Yup, that's about right. But that's your base price - then you need to add painting, a good paint job is what sells many bikes and that can double the price. Then you need to ship it to the assembly factory, and build it up into a bike. But before you get to that stage, you need to design the frame - and that's not just the frame design itself, it's the market research to work out that you can sell, it's the costings to work out if you can build it for what people will pay, it's a lot of work by clever people that you need to pay for.

Oh, and to get a frame for £150, you can't just buy one - you need to commit (and often pay upfront) for lots of them.