Why do we have to do this every year.
Decades of not doing it, not questioning, taking things at face value, was what lead to this situation 🙂 Well not us specifically here, but you get the idea. Also, for me, it's doing this or working on a rather tedious presentation I have to give tomorrow.
We have to do this because we love the sport. We saw Floyd dying one day and flying the next.
in a bit more detail here
http://sportsscientists.com/2014/07/the-physiology-at-the-front-of-the-tour/
But we can use Perceived Rate of Exertion to have an idea about how hard he is working
That may well be the most retarded thing I've read for a while. Because you don't have any empirical data you're going to apply some notional numbers on effort to someone you weren't within 1000 miles of? And the fact he celebrated is evidence of his doping?
Interesting articles though, basically 6w/kg has been the magic number historically, so ride under that, or be viewed with suspicion!
I thought it interesting that they put Nibali on the same level as 2013 Froome, I really didn't think his performances were all that and believe Froome/Contador would have bettered him in the mountains. Probably not enough to take yellow though. It's also interesting we're stuck at 6W/KG, you'd think that might change as new training took hold and even living standards increased?
It's not actually as a high a number as I'd expect either, if they're 65kg that's only 390w, which isn't [i]that [/i]high.
you'd think that might change as new training took hold and even living standards increased?
That's basically what they're saying though - everyone who's hit 6w/kg in the past has been on the cusp of plausibility, but always turned out to be doped. We're again seeing a crop of riders at 6w/kg, so either they've got better, or they're still doped!
They might be lying about their weight too. Every racing cyclist I've ever met lies about how much they train, and how much they weigh 😀
That may well be the most retarded thing I've read for a while
Given we are writing on STW and some of the recent threads that is bad news.I explained why I stopped watching - the comparable PRE that I perceived - and you said my explanation was retarded. Doesn't seem as bad as some to me.
I always wondered where the weight figures for calculating the watts/kg came from. Armstrong always claimed he was much lighter than he really was so that his W/kg seemed more plausible.
FWIW I don't think Nibbles or Froome were/are doped. They may be hitting the 6ish mark on the W/Kg scale but just from watching the racing it looks very different from a few years ago. The Spanish riders in the Vuelta on the other hand....
Yeah it doesn't sound all that high until you consider they're hitting 6W/kg after 150-200km, I can do it for about 2 mins when fresh....
We'll never know will we, everyone capable of those numbers is already riding in the peloton and will swear blind they haven't doped. A proper study of the capability is impossible.
Yeah it doesn't sound all that high until you consider they're hitting 6W/kg after 150-200km, I can do it for about 2 mins when fresh....
I suppose, but its also concentrating on just the GC main contenders, I read the articles as (very broadly) indicating GC contenders fall in the ~5.6 - 6 W/kg range, the thing is everyone on the tour has to ride the preceding 150-200km so perhaps more advantage is to be derived from a well disciplined/structured team or a controlled Peleton Getting the GC big boys to the bottom of the mountain with minimal Watts expended...
Is there any GC analysis factoring in Team support?
I mean If the other 8 guys in a team are in a similarly high W/kg range then you're laughing, if your team is falling apart disipline wise, poorly trained, unwell or plain knackered Domestiques or they've crashed out, well you're well behind the curve to start with...
You could suggest the "Smart" doping strategy for a team chasing the yellow jersey is to have a Lead rider who has trained hard to be at the top end of "Plausable" while staying as clean as a whistle and simply supporting him with an army of juicers who won't be under quite as much scrutiny... Discuss.
Either way it'll be future analysis of all that frozen blood and wee, not spreadsheet extrapolation that answers any of these doubts...
I'm a bit lost with this 6w/kg 'benchmark'. w/kg is calculated using a rider's FTP/cp60 but they're using Nibali's Hautacam ascent as evidence of him hitting over 6w/kg. He climbed Hautacam in about 30mins though, so surely his [i]CP30[/i] is 6w/kg - you can knock a few % off to get his FTP, which would come in at , I'm guessing, about 5.8, using FTP=CP20 x 0.95)
Still a long way ahead of some of the fastest climbers though... ten Dam rode Hautacam at 5.5w/kg to 8th place, according to his Strava numbers.
Good point - again from Strava, ten Dam did the last climb of the Clasica San Sebastián at 4.5w/kg after burying himself to get Mollema on the podium.Getting the GC big boys to the bottom of the mountain with minimal Watts expended...
And it's not just about having having a couple of "High output" Domestiques, it's about them not falling off the back and getting DQ'd once they've placed their man and recovering to do it all again the next day(s), there needs to be a strategy that takes advantage of that if you've got rider's that can do it...
I guess everyone is focussed on the old [I]LA way[/I] of doping, Build yourself a superman who can just stamp the rest into oblivion, any newer doping based strategies will probably have to be a shade subtler and a bit more tactical, what sort of magic juices are there that might aid repeated recovery to a baseline level rather than outright strength/power/endurance?
If there are still keen dopers and doctors in the sport, then they've got to be looking at new/different stuff now... including how to make performances look more "Plausable"...
'm a bit lost with this 6w/kg 'benchmark'. w/kg is calculated using a rider's FTP/cp60 b
It's not FTP, it's just the average power (or maybe NP) they put out over the duration of the climb. You can have w/kg for a 5 minute effort, or a 60 minute effort, for example.
Yeah, I only skimmed the links and didn't realise they were just comparing times on specific climbs.
Ftp would make more sense to compare riders who haven't ridden the same races... Even I put out 6w/kg on some climbs!
But as the riders don't generally release their ftp I suppose that's all we've got to go on.
Ftp would make more sense to compare riders who haven't ridden the same races
Not really, where they shine is in the mountains, so that's what you want to look at. I'd hazard a guess that Tony Martin's FTP is among the highest, but that wouldn't make a relevant comparison here.
Yeah, and for the likes of Cav and Kittel, it's probably something like their 10 second w/kg (or even w/cd - i.e. drag) that's critical and that'd be well up in the 20's.
I know what you're saying, although I was talking about GC guys.
Oooft!! It appears the whole Astana team is at it...
Oh dear, and so it begins again...
seriously?! - oh FFS.
Benefit of the doubt , again, or no smoke without fire and all that?? Hmmmmm
Feel free to embed, can't from my phone...
One is unfortunate, two looks like carelessness, three?
Only one was in Nibali's TdF squad, and one has been caught for steroids, errrr steak and it's esay to see how two brothers in the same team might have the same "preparation" 😉
But given the head of the team, it does not bode well. Any teams looking for a new GC rider this off season? If I was Nibali, i'd be looking for a new team.
Hutch wrote a good article in the comic a week ago about cycling being a team sport, right up to a member of the team being caught. Unlike say the men's 4x100m relay, where one down, all down.
Epic carelessness by Davidenok surely. If he was knowingly taking an easily detectable steroid, then why go and win a stage when you know you'll be tested? Bizarre really.
But given the head of the team, it does not bode well.
and previous team leaders; Armstrong and Contador in '09. I really wish Nibali was riding on a different team 🙄
mix-up with the blood bags, then ?If he was knowingly taking an easily detectable steroid, then why go and win a stage when you know you'll be tested?
Still pretty careless to have saved a bag of tainted blood.
tell me about it !
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Jesus. Surely the nail in their pro licence coffin!
Just as well Astana haven't just signed a doctor with a long history of doping, then things would look really dodgy
Oh wait...they have...what are the currents odds on a Frenchman winning the TDF...in 2014 ?
[url= http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/fedosseyev-is-fifth-doping-case-for-astana-organisation ]There surely can't be another positive at Astana, can there? Oh, wait a minute, there can! [/url]
FFS.
Astana as a team, organisation, whatever, should be kicked out sharpish if cycling wants ANY credibility left. Yes, I know this is the continental outfit, not the full team, but it's the same bunch of corrupt Kazakhs funding it all.
Oh, and Nibbles, let's assume you're clean, shall we. If that assumption's right, just WTF are you doing still there?
Quite a good article [url= http://inrng.com/2014/11/should-nibali-leave-astana/ ]on inrng[/url] questioning whether Nibbles should leave Astana.
Yes, I know this is the continental outfit, not the full team...
Was reading an interview with Nibbles the other day in one of the papers (Grauniad possibly), and it was interesting that the last Astana rider caught doping, Nibali had to do some research on, because he had no idea who he was. (Or so he says... Because of course, he's guilty by association)
He didn't seem too bothered, so long as the guys around him are good guys. But it doesn't seem a good place for him to be. I dare say he's either up to his eyeballs in freshly transfused blood, or he just doesn't see the perspective of the outside world.
Haha was just about re re re bump this!
Madness, you couldn't write this shit! Now, it's not all the World Tour team but seriously WTF, they are linked. In my eyes there's no way Astana can have a WT licence next year.
http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2014/nov/20/vincenzo-nibali-astana-cycling-tour-de-france
nibbles interview mentioned above
Not good and it is hard to not be suspicious
Was about to link to that, Junky, so thank you!
I did read that thinking, "Well, he would say that, wouldn't he?", because, well, he would. However, that article linked to by MrB above shows the complexity of it all.
Assuming he is clean, which I hope we all want to be the case, surely he must just be praying that Astana lose their license. To be honest, I really can't see how they can remain involved in cycling much longer. Again, I know it's two "separate" teams, but it isn't really. Astana is a cabal of state owned companies from Kazakhstan, Samruk-Kazyna. Dodgy sovereign wealth funds, from a country and industry hardly well known for doing good clean business.
But it doesn't seem a good place for him to be. I dare say he's either up to his eyeballs in freshly transfused blood, or he just doesn't see the perspective of the outside world.
Doesn't, or doesn't dare to? Either way, you're right, not a good place for him if he's clean.
Cannot disagree with that Flashy...and trust me I tried 😉
I really hope their license review goes badly - though I don't know if the continental team will be taken into account - if not then this feels like cycling taking a huge step backwards.
The UCI / ASO can't really afford to refuse participation can they, I mean the UK/Europe/USA aren't the only countries that watch Pro Cycling and certainly it's wider audience the Governing Bodies seek..
As for Nibbles, he'll stay, it's where the money is.
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That is brilliant.
But I really hope Nibbles is clean! Him and Aru need to get the hell outta dodge.
I don't quite understand why everyone seems to give Nibali the benefit of the doubt. He's never had mine. ymmv
Mr Nibali, what was it that first attracted you to the multi-million euro deal with Astana ?
There was a great interview on the cycling podcast earlier in the year (sorry can't find the link) with Astana's PR guy - a superb raconteur explaining the basis behind the whole Astana project. Now admittedly he was a real master of spin etc, but the way he put was it was part of a great plan to use Kazakhstan's immense oil wealth to develop the whole country (Norwegian style). It was always the powerhouse of soviet cycling, but now a lot of ex-cyclists have ending up running businesses and they are using it to promote the Astana Expo in 2017.
Well, they certainly got a lot of people talking about Astana !
He also explained the Kazak attitude to cheating is somewhat different to the Europeans - don't get caught, but if you do you serve your time and then the slate is clean. None of this hairshirt, forgive me malarkey.
Nibbles win is tarnished, but at the same time he does appear to have a team within a team and kept the kazaks at arms length - apparently he didn't want Iglinsky in his tour squad. But his choice of doctor seems very odd for someone who professes to be Mr Clean. Unless Astana gets kicked out, it looks like he hasn't much choice other than to see out his contract. But if he signs the extension he's been offered, his credibility will be in tatters.
2017?
[url= http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/vinokourov-suspends-astana-continental-team ]Oh, well that's OK then. Nothing to see here, etc. [/url]
FFS.
Best quote;
The two teams are managed separately but Vinokourov seems to have the power to suspended the Continental team.
IT'S THE SAME ORGANISATION!
Pathetic.
Moar couldn't make it up ness,
While I'm against criminalising doping itself, I reckon that doctors like Ferrari should certainly be allowed to be put in jail if proven to have helped athletes cheat. And the team managers.
Why do you draw a line between the medics and the athletes? One cannot exist without the other.
doctors have a professional code to follow. IMO doping breaks those rules and there are already laws in place to prosecute for that though maybe not explicitly stated.
There will always be individuals who cheat regardless of how clean the culture is in any sport. They should continue to be dealt with as at present though maybe with stiffer sanctions for those who don't provide information on where they sourced their drugs from). The key is to sort out the culture - that's the team managers and doctors - that's what leads to wholesale corruption of sports.
To paraphrase a comment on road.cc's fb report.
I can't believe Dr Ferrari would risk his reputation by allowing himself to be pictured with the Astana team...
Has the Gazetta been sitting on these pics for a year then?
Seems strange if so.
Has the Gazetta been sitting on these pics for a year then?
Is it not saying that it's the italian anti doping authorities who have the photos, not the newspaper:
According to the Italian paper, Ferrari attended the team hotel in Montecatini Terme thirteen months ago. Unbeknownst to the team, so too did anti-doping investigators, who reportedly have photographs of the doctor talking to various members of the team.
Ah right. Not very well today.
😳
I can't believe Dr Ferrari would risk his reputation by allowing himself to be pictured with the Astana team...
Brilliant!
One thing I don't understand: After any win, the riders go to great efforts to praise their teammates, saying they couldn't have won without them, that cycling is a team sport etc. So why don't the winners - who have benefitted so directly from cheats - get disqualified themselves?
Currently there is very little to stop teams from encouraging (forcing?) their domestiques to dope. If the riders get caught, they're cut loose and their contract is annulled. Their career is over and they're shut out, but the team's triumphs still stand.
Surely if riders risk ruining the careers and achievements of not only themselves but also their teammates / friends, this would provide added incentive to be clean?
Nibbles' tour win is definitely tainted, even if it does stand.
Agreed, damn shame because I really like his style.
One thing I don't understand: After any win, the riders go to great efforts to praise their teammates, saying they couldn't have won without them, that cycling is a team sport etc. So why don't the winners - who have benefitted so directly from cheats - get disqualified themselves?
Pretty sure that happens in athletics, for relay teams.
What an absolute mess. I love Nibbles (Aru is great as well) but I don't see how Astana can continue.
Even if they move teams will any of the riders be able to shake the suspicions of being involved with this?
Brian Cookson needs to stamp all over this.
Revoke the license for a year and tell Astana that they've got a year to prove that they're clean - get shot of all the ex-dopers including Vinokourov - and then re-apply for their license.
Don't care about Nibali, don't like him anyway.
Brian Cookson needs to stamp all over this.
Revoke the license for a year and tell Astana that they've got a year to prove that they're clean - get shot of all the ex-dopers including Vinokourov - and then re-apply for their license.
This. Deny Astana pro tour license and that then gives Nibbles the chance to head somewhere else. Where he'd go exactly, I'm not sure, but anywhere has to be better than Astana.
The difficulty is that you can only sanction teams using the terms that they signed up to (which appear somewhat vague!). The UCI couldn't sort Katusha in a similar situation a few years ago following CAS appeals.
Even if you get rid of Astana from the top tier what are you solving? SKY proved just how difficult it is to employ a team of people without a dodgy history and still ended up turning in a fresh faced doper after all the fuss they went through trying to maintain a cleaner than clean image. SKY have certainly suffered performance-wise since the host of backroom staff all decided to "spend more time with the family" coincidentally all at the same time a no doping declaration was required at SKY.
Horner has recently been signed to be a "mentor to the younger riders" at Airgas-Safeway FFS despite his "mentoring" at Saturn and other teams allegedly having a very LA feel to it. Pro cycling is what it is, no point using Astana as scapegoats. Is TST any less linked to doping than Astana? I personally wouldn't miss Vaughters but there you go. He seems popular but it is all a question of spin...
Pro cycling is what it is, no point using Astana as scapegoats
I don't think about it as creating scapegoats. I think about it as punishing those guilty of doping.
some of those having nibali beyond question on the early pages of this thread seem to be a little conspicuous by their absence. 😀
either way, good point on previous page regarding the idea that other doping team members should also null the winner's result
As individuals, and as a team, they are punished within the current rules yet most people cite the need for Astana to be expelled from the top tier to maintain Pro Cycling's credibility... my point is that there are plenty of people beyond Astana who mock cycling credibility so I don't really get what revoking a license, which goes beyond sanctions permitted, achieves in the grand scheme of things. I agree that any form of cheat should be punished but there is a far wider culture to address rather than just jump on making an example of the one choice team that was dumb enough to let guys get caught. History would suggest that the teams to worry about are the ones being successful and not being caught 😕 TST have a who's who of doping in the backroom staff and a leader who most of the time knows how not to get caught... but hey, they have an eccentric backer and neon camo training kits so they must be alright
It's not a question of revoking a license, Astana haven't been issued one for 2015 (neither have Europcar). If the UCI License commission decides that Astana don't have adequate policies in place to deal with doping then they'd be quite right to deny them a license. Obviously this needs to all be in the context of the existing rule book, but I don't see why the rules on this aspect can't be strengthened in the coming years if need be.
what do you suggest then DanW? just let those teams who are caught doping carry on just because they're not a big team like Saxo or Sky?
No idea! I'm not sure the temptation to cheat will every disappear in a sport where there isn't much money to go around but an attractive amount on offer to the very top few and where human performance is such a massive deciding factor. Pros live in a world of "grey" when it comes to pushing the boundaries of the rules but then they are expected to do nuts things on the bike. I personally like short explosive stages and ex-dopers to not be given the time of day when it comes to managing teams but I can't see that ever really happening... there wouldn't be many people left if you kicked out everyone with an association to cheating
a nice little wrap-up rap sheet for Astana
[url= http://www.cyclingnews.com/features/astana-timeline-eight-years-of-shadows ]Cycling News article[/url]
a nice little wrap-up rap sheet for Astana
Just had a chance to read that. I knew they had a chequered history and that the staff are dodgy as hell is obvious but bloody hell that sets quite a scene.
They do have an apalling history. It does make you wonder why Nibali, a self proclaimed flag bearer for clean cycling, signed for a team with such dubious management and history. I guess money is the obvious answer.
The only answer, surely!
That Cycling News article iz quite an eye opener, in terms of the length of time and number of 'issues' around Astana.
Then again, as long as the Tour, and La Belle France, continue to see the likes of Virenque as worthy ambassadors for the sport, and as long as ex-dopers are allowed to be DS of a pro team, what hope is there for a real change?
New episode of the cycling podcast today addresses this.
Sounds like the journos are worried they've been had again tbh.
I read somewhere that if Astana do not get a licence then Nibali can leave without breaking his contract- no idea if that is correct or not.
The thing is we are in December, which big team is looking for a leader at this stage? And on the salary Nibali and his team would command?
I read somewhere that if Astana do not get a licence then Nibali can leave without breaking his contract- no idea if that is correct or not.
I suspect that most 'big name' riders would have such a clause. They'd be daft not to I think.
The thing is we are in December, which big team is looking for a leader at this stage? And on the salary Nibali and his team would command?
BMC come to mind, but can't, off the top of my head, think of anyone else.
If they don't get a ProTour licence (won't happen) and step down to Continental, they'd probably still get into the big races because of Aru and Nibali. I could see those two staying for next season regardless. It's not like they'll lose their sponsors either.
I'm sure they'll get it with some pointless clauses in there about anti doping programmes.
What the common consent on this Astana scandal - a team of morons unable to intelligently dope and get away with it or a testing and authority breakthrough?
Sad though, a heavily tainted tour winner again after everything the sport's been through is a proper turn off for potential fans and sponsors.
The thing is we are in December, which big team is looking for a leader at this stage? And on the salary Nibali and his team would command?
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