About 20 years ago (1993 to be exact) after mowing lawns, picking potatoes and saving pocket money I bought my first "proper" mountainbike. A Scott Timber. Fully rigid. 21 speed STI gears and canti brakes.
It cost about £300 at the time, but I remember the shop had all short of exotica running into thousands of pounds. Some even had rear suspension.
Looking at my current bike in the garage this evening, and unable to ride due to injury, it struck me how much things have changed. I started wondering what mountain bikes might be like 20 years from now and since Chris Porter wouldn't tell me I thought I'd start a thread.
Back then there was really only one type of bike to do it all, at least that i was aware of. In the last few years we've seen "do it all bikes" making a huge leap forward in terms of capability, we have bikes we can take on 5 hour xc rides and still take on a modern dh track. My current bike is about 28 - 32lbs, 160mm of travel and is better than all my old dh bikes at descending and it loses about 10 or 20 seconds to a 120mm hardtail over a 20minute fireroad climb.
Will mid travel bikes get so light, so strong and so capable that they render xc bikes [i]and[/i] dh bikes obsolete?
Where can todays xc bikes be improved? If DH continues on it's current course what will those bikes look like?
At a guess I would suggest that the wheels will probably be the same size as the London Eye.
More batteries - Electronic shifting, travel adjust, dropper adjust, and possibly even geometry adjust.
More internal - Belt drive and gear/hub set ups will grow in popularity.
More integration - GPS systems included to control the likes of gearing (Automatic gearbox type set up, anyone?) and perhaps even pre-set dropper, travel and angle settings.
Hover Bikes. They are the future.
CaptainFlashheart - MemberMore batteries - Electronic shifting, travel adjust, dropper adjust, and possibly even geometry adjust.
More internal - Belt drive and gear/hub set ups will grow in popularity.
More integration - GPS systems included to control the likes of gearing (Automatic gearbox type set up, anyone?) and perhaps even pre-set dropper, travel and angle settings.
I could imagine at some point the UCI might come in to say xc and ban some technological advances.
A gearbox bike, all i want is a gear box bike….* looks at box of old mechs in garage*
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For when the Earth's natural resources have been used up on electronic stuff nobody asked for.
A bike to do it all and last forever?
A mid-fat bike, hubgear, and rod operated brakes.
electronic travel adjust along with super strong, super lightweight frames, wheels etc will give you a 28lb bike with 0-160mm travel with real geometry changes throughout the travel adjust, 1× ??? hub gears, electric brakes possibly i guess. Can see anything else other than carbon fibre disappearing as a structural material. Reckon you'll be able to plug them into your laptop or whatever and tweek brake sensitivity, suspension feel, dropper movement etc.
i've seen the future and it will be 🙂
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Not sure how far lighter stronger can go, having seen the moves from Steel to Alu to Carbon whats the next leap to take the weight down but retain the strength.
Terrain sensitive suspension is probably next on the list, based on whats going on, rolling average of whats happened with a manual override.
DH bikes may get replaced at the "Have a Go" end of things with LT AM bikes but as long as there is a DH series the bike that doesn't compromise will still be there, same as XC. If you can make a 150mm bike ride like today's XC and DH bikes then just imagine what you can do with something that has the compromise removed.
For XC I can see droppers and electronic suspension setups being the norm very soon.
For DH stronger/lighter & pedal platform
The middle ground will be fun and exciting.
jimjam - MemberWill mid travel bikes get so light, so strong and so capable that they render xc bikes and dh bikes obsolete?
Nah, even a 20lb 160mm bike is always going to pedal worse than a 20lb 100mm bike, and an indestrictible 160mm bike will deal with fast big hits worse than a 200mm bike. The overlap'll get bigger but they'll never fully replace them for their specific jobs.
I expect- more bullshit standards. More gears. More electrics. Longer drop seatposts. Hopefully less bloody stupid tall seatmasts. Probably more long travel bikes with compromised suspension to try and make them pedal better, which people will lap up instead of buying shorter travel bikes that work right. Fox will launch yet another design change that they'll declare will be more longlived, and simultaneously reduce the service intervals. Orange will release the 222 Evo Evo Evo Evo Evo.
And who knows, some day someone might make a decent allround winter tyre for 650b.
Gearboxes interest me though
niiiice. daddy want.
Active ride
Active seatpost
Adjustable geometry
Adaptive dampers
28x3.5" tyres
Fully automatic CVT gearboxes
Frictionless bearings
kayla1 .. point well made.
The spoked wheel and chain/casette/mech drivetrain has remained fundamentally unchanged for a very long time.
I would be interested to see a bit of innovation in this area.
chain/cassette/mech drivetrain
Shame we can't get this [url= http://www.bike-advisor.com/story/shaft-drive-transmission-bicycles.html ]shaft drive[/url] in a featherweight unobtainium
I predict a faster and faster turnaround of ever-increasing 'must-have' standards focusing on the division of MTB'ing into countless subsets of riding styles - each of which dictate niche geometry, wheels sizes and clothing.
I'm aware that this sounds glib and cynical, but nonetheless, I predict it. The more the merrier, we're all just turning pedals and having a blast. Bewildering choice never hurt anyone AFAIK. (Checks spares box to see how much longer I can eke out this vintage 26" 1 1/8 malarkey so do not force family to live under bridge)
more standards and changes with phasing out the old to force you to buy the new.
I can see the electronic shifting happening, combined with electronic suspension adjustment. Even battery motor assisted bikes. Once you've got that, then gearbox bikes start to make sense.
I do suspect though there will always be a market for a regular "mountain bike" bike (if you see what I mean) yes angles have changed, components have changed, but fundamentally in 20 years....nothing has changed
more standards and changes with phasing out the old to force you to buy the new.
The cynic in me has to agree with Klunk. There's a been a proliferation of unnecessary standards that seem to have been introduced by marketing departments, not because of convenience to the end user.
This seems to have gone hand in glove with cost inflation too.
I predict we go the way of windsurfing.
Subdivided into so many niches that the bikes become unrideable except under very specific conditions, before imploding up it's own arse and the remaining few take up [s]kite surfing[/s] [i]mountain boarding.[/i]
i think we should see a big jump in suspension. I can see where there are significant improvements to be made with "big piston" forks, better shocks etc.
i also think we will se electronic travel adjust etc coming in in the next few years.
Eventually i think we will go full circle and end up with bikes like we have now but just a lot lot better made with new manufacturing techniques and a lot more aesthetically pleasing (for the era)
while it would be nice to see things like the chain drive etc change i doubt it will ever happen.
My current bike is about 28 - 32lbs, 160mm of travel and is better than all my old dh bikes at descending and [b]it loses about 10 or 20 seconds to a 120mm hardtail over a 20minute fireroad climb.[/b]
nah
How about electric transmission? You pedal a dynamo and the wheel drives from a motor. Infinite gear ratios up to whatever you like. Not as a efficient as a chain drive but you can add regenerative braking which should compensate. Could give a nice boost for the ups.
while it would be nice to see things like the chain drive etc change i doubt it will ever happen.
I reckon we'll start seeing 'drive' dissapearing completey with some people riding what is in effect a sub 40lb electric motorbike with a 'variable asymetric ground clerance pivots' (cranks and pedals).
nickjb
How about electric transmission? You pedal a dynamo and the wheel drives from a motor.
I was thinking about something like that, like a hybrid car where you're replacing the petrol engine.
I suppose carbon nano tubes might give us much lighter, stronger bikes, wheels, forks etc etc. Maybe some sort of on board telemetry to set up the suspension better for a given trail, then linked into gps.
dirtyrider
nah
Absolutely. Consistently timed over a few years. Talas fork puts the HA at 68 degrees, steepens the SA to over 75 degrees. Same tyres, same engine. The only difference is the hardtail is slightly lighter, but the full suss grips better on a very steep section of the climb.
Re electronic suspension:
People who can't be arsed to spend an hour reading about how suspension works and manually setting it up to suit them are highly unlikely to bother reading a manual on how to set up their electronic suspension.
See cameras - millions of unecessary modes, never used by most people who just leave it on 'Auto'.
So unless we have an auto mode, it's pointless junk.
And we won't have an auto mode for yonks, because at the moment it's too complicated to implement at a reasonable cost and weight on a bicycle.
I think the bike industry has shot itself in the foot with the standards war.
It must be a nightmare trying to keep up if you're a small specialist manufacturer/designer.
I reckon an awful lot of people will switch to simple, rigid, uncomplicated, versatile bikes.
I suppose carbon nano tubes might give us much lighter, stronger bikes, wheels, forks etc etc
Na, it may become more common if they get cheaper, but it's not a game changer. Although I reckon we'll see more injection moulded 'carbon' parts replaicng CNC'd bits like mechs, brake levers etc.
I think the bike industry has shot itself in the foot with the standards war.
It must be a nightmare trying to keep up if you're a small specialist manufacturer/designer.
It's not as bad as people make out.
Build a bike and ride it. It's only a problem for serial upgraders who sawp frames every year. For everyone else, over the lifetime of a bike you're just buying once (and there's little or no confusion as to what you want/need for anyone with half a brain) and replacing like for like after that.
i'd settle for cranks that are available in sensible lengths.
but we're more likely to get a load more pointless tat before we get anything useful.
bike designer #1: i've got a great, cheap, simple idea how we can make more bikes more comfortable, for more people.
b d #2: bugger that, i've just invented a new hub standard that'll allow 14speed derailleurs.
b d #1: what was i thinking!?!?!?
But surely the whole point of riding off road is to feel like you're riding off road. All the electrickery and active this and automatic that will just suck the joy out of riding a bike and flatten the ride ([i]maaaaan[/i])
Has anyone read 'Fat Tyre Flyer'? The story at the back about the fella who gets so into timing himself and his top speeds but actually missing the 'ride' is pertinent here.
I think the future for me might be single speed rigid 😆
Carbon nanotube mono-filament frames! (The only downside is that slipping and landing on the crossbar will cut you in half.)
More realistically, I noticed on my crosser that the big steerer bearing is the one on [b]top[/b], so expected tapered steerers to turn the other way up sometime soon.
A return to trail bikes. 120-140mm 24-26lb bikes for everyday riding.
Enduros will get more and more pro, leaving 'normal' mountain bikers and social racers to find something new to do - an enduro/trailquest hybrid or something. Maybe something like the Singletrack Weekender that isn't in a quarry 😉
I think the bike industry has shot itself in the foot with the standards war.
It's working out fairly well for the bike industry, 26" is rolling out 650 is rolling in. Most people will buy a new 650b bike when they get the next one whenever that is. I don't think outside of an out and out DH bike I don't think I've seen a 26" bike for sale. It's moving along.
As for the serial upgraders they will just do 2 steps at once and move up frame fork and wheels.
But surely the whole point of riding off road is to feel like you're riding off road. All the electrickery and active this and automatic that will just suck the joy out of riding a bike and flatten the ride (maaaaan)
I think everyone has an opinion on 'point of riding', some overlap, some are identical. Thing is with increased choice you can still buy a vintage bicycle that will last you a lifetime and bump out the ride, or you can buy latest electronic gubbins that will flatten the ride and your wallet - and last you until next June. Freedom to choose, and clubs for everything, even for men in tights and beards riding a Pro-Flex...
Malvern Rider- that's true. Just because I don't like where it's heading doesn't mean I have to tag along, does it? 😀
Bit lighter, bit better, not alot different to current stuff, electronic stuff probably not going to become that main stream, bicycles are pretty simiple in there essence and should stay that way 😉
Gearboxes, weight and packaging, not really any reliable ones yet either (except Rohloff rear hub that is) but want to be centrally mounted.
It seems like that in the future the faff:km ridden ratio will be off the scale! I'll stick with what I have for now.
If anyone wants me I'll be in my Unabomber style shack at the bottom of the garden.
Yours scincerely
Ned Ludd
It seems like that in the future the faff:km ridden ratio will be off the scale!
Not sure about that. To tie in with the camera analogy above (A good one, BTW!) there are many who would just ride on "auto", but there are, I suspect, equal numbers of people who would set up different 'profiles', for want of a better word. A bit like my Garmin, I have different profiles set up for different bikes/usage. The idea of an "integrated" bike should allow the user to set up custom auto modes to suit them. So, there might be one that was set as "Trail centre gnarpoon" and another set as "Local bimblecore". Angles, suspension, gearing etc could then all be set in the required mode for that use case. It's not out of the realms of possibility, with GPS, motion and vibration sensors etc. Hell, one of my cameras can already sense a whole load of that stuff for me, so why not a bike?
Hell, one of my cameras can already sense a whole load of that stuff for me
But that's just so that it can point the right adverts at you
Maybe that's where this is all going.... you Google the latest 28.7" wheels and your bike automatically steers you to the local bike shop.
^^^^^^^ 😀
The idea of an "integrated" bike should allow the user to set up custom auto modes to suit them. So, there might be one that was set as "Trail centre gnarpoon" and another set as "Local bimblecore".
Already available on motorbikes, but usually to offset pillion or luggage weight.
On a bicycle?
Spring rate and sag should be rider, not terrain dependent.
Well, it is for me anyway!
🙂
Damping is easily changed by moving a little wheel on your forks/shock.
I can see the point on bikes used by different people, but apart from that?
How many people have taken the time to understand damping?
And how many actually change it for varying conditions?
klumpy - MemberMore realistically, I noticed on my crosser that the big steerer bearing is the one on top, so expected tapered steerers to turn the other way up sometime soon.
would that not cause some problems with fitting the forks?
[tries to find that picture of a bike with the forks on upside down]
How many people have taken the time to understand damping?
And how many actually change it for varying conditions?
Very valid, and I agree, to date at least. However, if it was made a whole lot easier to set up, via teh interwebz or something, I reckon more people would do so.
As the first tier component manufacturers squeeze ever more cogs on a rear hub one of the second tier companies will market a high quality, light and durable 1x7 set up. This will be bought by aging singlespeeders whose knees can't take any more and bike manufacturers looking to sell quality bikes at a reasonable price.
A few years later that enterprising component manufacturer will upgrade to 8 speed and some time after that 9..................