Morning all, early start as I’m off for a long run (sorry), anyway, lets have a look what’s in store for today.

A stage for the breakaway specialists and the strong riders with something left in the legs. The penultimate climb of the Col de Peyra Taillade is tough and includes a steep “short cut” to make it harder still.

The Route: a dash to the first climb over roads that are a bit hillier than the profile suggests. Continuing the theme the first category climb to Naves d’Aubrac is listed as 8.9km at 6.4% but the road climbs for a kilometre longer and it’s closer to 7%, all on a tough rural road that rises to the Aubrac plateau, a barren and exposed land where the roads are lined with barbed-wire strung between chestnut fenceposts that evoke Johnny Hoogerland. Soon after comes the climb out of Vieurals, listed as 3.3km at 5.9% but the road climbs for at least 5km and then it’s across the plateau to the intermediate sprint which is chased by a 10km drag up at 3-4% most of the way and then more sluggish plateau roads before a twisting descent with 6-7% slopes down to the Allier valley.

The Col de Peyra Taillade is a tough climb out of the valley. It starts with level ascent that twists its ways up for the first four kilometres. Then comes the “short cut” as the race takes the direct way uphill and it’s two kilometres at 11% average with some 14% and all on a narrow road before returning to the main road, itself still a rural road, and 7% slopes. The descent off the other side isn’t as steep which matters because someone attacking over the climb can’t exploit the descent, they have to keep pedalling a lot.

The climb out of Saint Vidal bites, it’s only 2km but amid the 6.8% average there’s some 10% and narrow too. After this the route picks up the big Route Nationale for a while before a quick detour via Polignac where there’s a climb on the way out, it’s not steep but 1km at 5% is a last launchpad for anyone worried about a sprint.

Interesting stage, GC? Breakaway? Inrng, what do you reckon?

The Contenders: long range breakaways are not proving successful this year with only Lilian Calmejane enjoying a stage win. Today should see a move go early and stay away because the sprint teams won’t be chasing and if Team Sky pick up the chase it’ll surely be to control the race rather than bring the breakaway back. The only chance of the break failing is if a team misses the early move and is forced into a “punishment chase” which only brings things back together at the expense of the chasing team. But who to pick… it’ll have to be a strong rider who can cope with some hard climbs because the road up to the Plateau d’Aubrac is selective.

Stephen Cummings (Dimension Data) is an obvious breakaway specialist who has won in the Massif Central before but he’ll be closely marked while team mate Serge Pauwels is strong on courses like this. Tony Gallopin (Lotto-Soudal) is another stage hunter with the talent to poach the win and he can sprint well too. Edvald Boasson Hagen (Dimension Data) is versatile enough to win a stage like this. Pierre Rolland (Cannondale-Drapac) has had gastric problems but these can go as quickly as they come and the route suits. Jarlinson Pantano (Trek-Segafredo) is another versatile rider suited to the hilly route.

Now to some teams. Movistar are still hunting for a stage win, they’re not having their usual powerful display but the likes of Jesus Herrada, Andrey Amador and Carlos Betancur are powerful options. Ditto BMC who are stage-hunting now and Greg Van Avermaet can cope with these climbs as we saw in Rio a year ago. UAE Emirates might have Louis Meintjes in ninth but they’ve been almost invisible. One team to watch is Ag2r La Mondiale because their second on team prize to Sky and winning this is an objective for them so firing two riders up the road can help them here. The team prize is something the general public cares little for but team managers love it (more on how the prize works here) so the likes of Oliver Naesen and Jan Bakelants are good candidates to go clear while others can stay alongside Romain Bardet in case the stage lights up among the GC contenders. Orica-Scott have Simon Yates in white but that only means the team jersey hasn’t been so visible so far, the likes of Damien Howson and Daryl Impey come to mind as the young talent and the old captain.

It’s a rest day tomorrow so what chance the GC riders light thing up? Slim but if Fabio Aru looks weak and isolated again then this is a good chance to extinguish his hopes.

And now the obligatory look back, I for one enjoyed yesterdays stage, all very tactical which appeals to the geek in me.

The break, formed early and well run by Tommy V

Sunweb fancied it yesterday and controlled the bunch well.

Textbook.

And a fine finish for Matthews, took it very well indeed.

Most of my choices have been talked about ^^ so I’ve really nothing to add.

Can’t see Steve doing it without help today, a break that hopefully will last.
Not too sure if QS are satisfied with the Green jersey and Dan up there, but Brambilla has been subtlety hiding and he’s good for a punt. But I think it could be BMC today, if they’ve not burned out from yesterday. 8 solid puncheurs, 8 chances of getting in a break.
Shar, Kung or Moinard.

No change in GC unless Aru needs a shit.

But Aru isn’t in yellow anymore

Correct.

Going to be fun watching a breakaway being born
After that, I fear a GC procession unless we’re lucky

First hour or so could be a crazy. Those steep ramps on the cat 1 will be interesting for both the breakaway and for GC too where bonus seconds are currently significant.

Looking forward to today after reading Inrng, hope Bertie and Bardet decide to go on the attack although would be good to see Cummings get a win

Going to be very interesting to see how hard the peloton hit this first climb. Trek already look busy.

Thanks for the post.

I’m a newbie to the TDF and still trying to get my head round it! Enjoying it though!

Hope you don’t mind me posting a question… (probably a stupid one).

If Froome / Team Sky are the main contenders for GC – why don’t they let other team lead the peloton so they Sky can conserve energy for the end of the race? As long as they stay a reasonable distance to the leaders then that should work… shouldn’t it?

At the front you can control the pace, choose which breaks get away and which get shut down, not get caught out by moves that you are too far back to get involved in, not get caught up in a crash, not get caught out by a cross wind and they can ride the sky tempo train of death up the climbs that puts most of the field on the limit and not in position to have enough energy to attack

Zeesaffa, first up, watch this:
[video]https://youtu.be/h7wPa1Hl5ZA[/video]
But basically, being at the front gives you control, it means you can see what’s going on and can react more easily to attacks. It also means you can dictate the pace of the riding, push on to stop attacks or slow down to save legs. Finally, being at the front keeps you away from crashes a little and stops you being the wrong side of splits in the group (see Aru at yesterday finish losing 25 seconds by being too far back).

That’s awesome – thanks guys! Will watch the video later. Got to take kids to a party now 🙁

Don’t worry the highlights programme is pretty comprehensive and good for days like yesterday when there is a lot of slack in the middle of the day

Yessssssss Tony Martin big day out!

Come on Tony Martin. Hope he makes this one

Man, it’s an awesome sight – look at them Gesche grovel 😯

I love watching TT specialists vs the peleton. Reminds me of this…

[video]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJNLMYpr2TM[/video]

Time to put that 58-32 to work soon for Tony

wahey, AG2R

This is getting interesting!

Froome in bother

got a race

Magic – I had a real feeling that this was going to be a borefest

I’ll feel bad for Landa if he gets called back

Frankly awesome, use local knowledge, smash out an attack on marrow roads so the cars can’t get in and try and hold.

Froome is gonna loose all his team mates on the climb surely and Landa might move into highest placed Sky rider, surely they cant call him back

Landa 🙁

(still looking pretty strong though)

Landa’s dragged him back on

So much booing for froome

Classy from the French supporters..

Sky being a bit ruthless with Froome here? If Landa drops back they could both lose a bunch of time.

Froome had better eat something soon

Shame about the booing.

Surprised ag2r didn’t turn the screw more when Froome was off the back

I think they were riding as hard as they could.

Think they turned it as hard as they could, they burnt through four or five guys in those few km’s

If he defends this to the top today he’ll deserve the yellow tonight.

I’m sure he’s psychologically strong enough that the booing will only make him more determined.

I (Mrs p) had today pencilled in as a DIY day(injured so no riding) DIY has been suspended.

Yeah, theoretically I’m catching up on work 😆

So much for a boring team sky snooze fest that many predicted for this tour

Landa is the second best rider in this race isn’t he? If not the best, you could swap roles with Froome and he’d win it.