If you actually believe that data extrapolated to that extent, with all the possible inherent bias that can creep into any form of survey is more accurate than the physically reported police records then you're stark raving bonkers.

The data I used above is from the links I gave before, and is the actual number of crimes recorded, broken down into individual crimes and dating back to 1898 – more info here:

Except that fails to take into account significant changes in the way crimes are recorded. I understand the BCS is generally reckoned to be a more accurate measure of real crime levels.

Perhaps you'd like to read an independent review of their methodology? http://uk.sitestat.com/homeoffice/rds/s?rds.bcs-methodology-review-2000pdf&ns_type=pdf&ns_url=%5Bhttp://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs08/bcs-methodology-review-2000.pdf%5D

One moments consideration shows that the liklihood of a new girlfriend texting a 2 or 3 year old one out of the blue and for no reason is a bit odd, as is walking into a restaurant full of people and carrying out a sustained and unprovoked attack

Normally I'd agree but this is teenage girls we're talking about. All she would have had to do was find the phone number in her boyfriends phone,

'why have you still got this?',
'ummmm….(panics) she keeps texting me. I hate her, yeah, I've told her to go away but she won't'
'I'll text her then, no bitch is chasing after my man'

etc. etc.

Zulu – found the stats you used. Did you spot this – two caveats on the spreadsheet you took the figures from

Introduction of the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) across England and Wales on 1 April 2002. Some forces adopted the Standard prior to this date. Broadly, the NCRS had the effect of increasing the number of crimes recorded by the police. Therefore, following the introduction of the Standard, numbers of recorded crimes are not comparable with previous years.

The following changes were made from 1 April 1998: the change to the Home Office Counting Rules for recorded crime had the effect of increasing the number of crimes counted. Numbers of offences for years before and after this date are therefore not directly comparable.

Thus proving my point that the police recording stats are less accurate than the BCS figures which are real peoples experience of real crimes.

Which would be why I gave you the violent crime figures from 1998 onwards…

Figures are also still higher than the 2002 data.

A survey of 51k people, which excludes repeat crimes, crimes against businesses and crime against under sixteen year olds cannot be reliably extrapolated to create accurate figures across the UK population.

Zulu – you are simply wrong about the statistics. If you knew anything about statistics you would know that 50 000 people is a huge sample and gives very high accuraccy – and it has been a constant measure for 25 yrs and shows distinct downward trends for the last ten.

Variance is inversely proportional to sample size,
and hence standard errors and confidence intervals are inversely proportional to the
square root of sample size. For example, doubling a sample size will tend to reduce
standard errors by around 29%

A huge sample will be accurate – simple fact. I suggest you have a look at the link provided by grumm above.

You say

A survey of 51k people, which excludes repeat crimes and crime against under sixteen year olds cannot be reliably extrapolated to create accurate figures across the UK population.

What do you have to base this on? any actual facts or knowledge? Or just your common sense? Independent statisticians say it is accurate. I perfer to believe people with real knowledge.

Of course the figures are higher since 2002 – counting methods changed that accounts for this

No, the figures have shown a rise since the introduction of the new standard/

So TJ – what it comes down to is that you choose to believe and quote an extrapolated survey, sponsored by a government department, that shows the government are doing a good job.

Given our current governments record with statistics…

I choose to believe that a more accurate reflection of crime is given by the actual number of people bothered to complain to the police about the incidence of a crime.

Hmm…

Or I prefer to believe an independent rigorous valid and robust scientific statistical analysis over a simple set of figures known to be inaccurate.

Can you give any actual critique of the BCS? It uses internationally recognised methodology

All political parties accept the BCS as the best method of knowing what is happening with crime. The tories do not attack it as biased as they know it is not.

Edit – I have not heard of any criticism from the tories

haha! the amount of effort you two have put into this argument, imagine if you had put it into trail building or something useful. 😉

Actually TJ – I think you'll find that even the home office accept that neither set of data gives a true reflection of crime trends on its own.

However I think that the reliability of any data put forward by this government to justify its claim that crime is falling is more than questionable

http://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/reports—correspondence/correspondence/hospital-admission-statistics-and-knife-crime–letter-from-sir-michael-scholar.pdf

As much as my experience disagrees with TJ's quoted survey, a sample size of 51K is vast in statistical terms. However it doesn't mean it's not open to abuse etc, on that I cannot comment.

Thank you coffeking.

extrapolated survey

Is there any other kind?
Again 50,000 is an absolutely massive sample size for any survey. I doubt very much you will find a statistician willing to argue your case that we cannot extrapolate from a sample of this size.

[zulu]I choose to believe that a more accurate reflection of crime is given by the actual number of people bothered to complain to the police about the incidence of a crime.

This could only be true if EVERY victim of crime can be bothered and not one goes unreported. This seems unlikely to be the case

Jeessuuss! (in Spanish please)

TJ why are you quoting all these nonsense about statistic this and that when you absolutely know bias could creep in no matter which govt is in power as they only use it to promote themselves.

I think we all know that extrapolated finding is just that – a positivist approach. Trying to read into it too much or to use it to predict or to explain the behaviour or the reality of society you must be craving a cigarette again even when is the number "significant". Have a cigarette and think about it for a moment. A roll-up will do too … inhale the smoke and smell the aroma of the cigarette to clear your thought.

In this case how do you explain the reality of the behaviour of an 18 yr old male beating or kicking a 16 yr old female? Yeah right the crime rate is down on paper/figure but it means shite/smoke to someone who has encountered it.

TJ you need cigarette. You lack nicotine boost and now hallucinating crime figures by extrapolation.

As for the 18 yr old male … if there is a CCTV in the shop use it to prosecute him. Or put up a reward for those that come forward as witness. Fight him … but use the bureaucrats' way as that will get to his head for a long time. If that fails or no evidence then I would speak to his parents face to face even if he is 18. Tell his parents that one day his son will have to face the consequences of his action. If they don't give a toss let it be but warn the 18 yr old.

Have a cigarette TJ you know you want it. 😆

I love chewkw's approach to reality. In scientific terms, it is what is described as "unhinged", but after a TJ argument with links to articles about the validity of particular statistical method it is like a breath of fresh air.

How can you say crime is falling when I've just read about a crime happening dammit????!!!! 🙂

Crime is down the goverment have the information from the BCS that proves it……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..There a weapons of mass distruction in Iraq that can be used in 45 minutes, the security services information proves it.

samuri – Member
One moments consideration shows that the liklihood of a new girlfriend texting a 2 or 3 year old one out of the blue and for no reason is a bit odd, as is walking into a restaurant full of people and carrying out a sustained and unprovoked attack

Normally I'd agree but this is teenage girls we're talking about. All she would have had to do was find the phone number in her boyfriends phone,

'why have you still got this?',
'ummmm….(panics) she keeps texting me. I hate her, yeah, I've told her to go away but she won't'
'I'll text her then, no bitch is chasing after my man'

etc. etc.

Which of course totally explains walking into a crowded restaurant and carrying out a sustained and "unprovoked" attack in front of many witnesses! ….. IMHO its more likely that it explains the Police's reticence to proceed, i.e. they are perhaps seeing it as 6 of 1 and a half dozen of the other maybe? My experience of the Police is that an unprovoked assault of the nature described would bring charges of ABH or GBH especially if there were witnesses.

Having been assaulted myself last year by a little pikey who broke my cheekbone, I feel that there really is a place for the caution in the legal system. 6 months inside isn't always going to make somebody a better person.

However, if you kick up a fuss – writing to the local papers, your MP and the Cheif Constable you stand a good chance of this matter being dealt with more fully.

Also, ask your daughter if she would feel comfortable in taking it further. She may know things that she's not telling you. (Speaking here as a father of 3 young adults)

Sounds to me like your daughter got the best lesson of her life.

I bet the next time she brings a low life waster of a boyfriend home and you happen to comment on him reminding you of 'that' incident, she will drop him like a hot potato.

Dady will no longer have to bite his tongue when confronted with 'wrong uns'.

Dont get yourself into trouble. Its not worth it just to feed your ego.

Now if you happen to have a mate who bumps into this pile of crap late at night, well that would be some kind of justice.