Mine is showing Tory win… Same Labour MP for 30 years, but only 3000 vote margin last time round (smallest ever) and there were 6000 ukip voters last time

Lots of labour signs around though so still hopeful

are those numbers U-turn corrected 😉

For everyone saying “majority is X, no point in voting”- votes have momentum and non-votes have inertia, it’s more important than it looks.

When I first voted my seat was safe Tory, and had been Tory every year since it was created. But vote by vote it narrowed and people got tactical and pushed and pushed and eventually, it wasn’t a wasted vote- he got kicked out and Labour got in. It was the no-point-in-votings that kept him in power and the move away from that, that got him out. The tipping point wasn’t the day he got voted out, it was the day it started to look possible.

But that wasn’t the end of it- we still had to work tactically for a couple of elections to keep it safe, it was a fight. But in 2015, for the first time ever in my life, I got to vote for who I actually wanted to not who I had to. And a hell of a lot of other people realised at about the same time that a vote for the SNP wasn’t going to be wasted, and it wasn’t going to let the Tories in either, and we had a 30% swing.

If we’d sat around in the 90s going “Oh well that Tory prick’ll get in so I might as well not bother” the gap would have never closed. Nobody would have ever thought “well this time”.

Obviously every seat is different, and you might not consider this the good result that I do. But things change a little at a time and even if your vote’s “wasted” this year it could add up in 2022 or 2027- what matters is that someone down the line doesn’t think “no point voting” Everyone has their own line where they think it’s worthwhile and your vote could push someone else into voting, and so on.

Why do you think so much effort’s been invested in making this election look like a foregone conclusion?

Hah, I just had a look at that on Electoral Calculus, wonder what they’ve been drinking. The numbers only add up if essentially every swing vote from every party goes Tory, including the Greens and SNP.

We are meant to be a safe seat, but the same was true last time.

Looking at the voting patterns, there is likely to be a big swing to the Conservatives but whether it will be big enough…

SNP seem to be treating it as a safe seat, Tories are treating it as a target seat. That’s dangerous for the SNP. So it may well happen, but I’m not putting money on it. My vote will be counted though!

10k tory majority,

ill vote anyway

Close to mine, 11K tory majority (60%) with second (15%) going to UKIP in 2015!

And still people put up Tory signs, I think I could guess your persuasion. I do my bit by punching them as I ride by don’t you worry…

I will still be voting too.

700 votes here in Eastbourne, hopefully we can unseat the current useless Tory.

My MP is Diane Abbott and her majority at the last election was 24,000. No, I mean 300,000. No, actually it was 80,000,000. Hang on, what was it?

Cheadle we had a gradual swing from Tory to LD through the 90s then LD in power until the last election when there was a big swing to Tory again (yes we all know why). I’m hoping for a swing back but it’s a 6500 majority at the moment. I’ll be doing my bit though.

votes have momentum and non-votes have inerti

😀

25K Tory majority – 73% voted Tory on a 73% turnout (i.e. 53% of the electorate voted for him). Mind you, overall Windsor and Maidenhead voted 54% for remain, and he was a keen Brexiteer. I suspect the Maidenhead half of our council region is also safe as well (29K majority) 😉

I always vote. And I suspect there may be quite a few protest votes against Brexit.

Freester – Member
True blue here. It really does make you wonder what the point of voting is when you know it will make eff all difference to the outcome.

Even if your preferred choice of party is vanishingly unlikely to win your constituency, a party’s overall percentage of the national vote affects how much coverage it gets generally and I think that there are rules that mean it helps determine whether they get party political broadcasts and other mandated exposure in the next election. Some votes are worth more than others but to a small extent no votes are wasted.

I’m another Edinburgh South West constituent, but in a more central part of it than Northwind or EpicSteve so I think I was in a different seat prior to the last lot of boundary changes (I don’t think I was ever in Edinburgh Pentlands). Historically it was a Labour seat but now it’s SNP. Before the SNP juggernaut happened at the last election, most parties tried to paint themselves as the only party who had a chance to unseat Labour in the constituency so they were all obviously angling for tactical votes.

My council ward ended up going Con/Green/SNP this year, with the Conservative and Green candidates getting elected in the first round and the SNP one not getting in until the sixth. In 2012 it was Lab/Green/SNP, so there is a bit of an indication that the Tories are picking up Labour votes. Playing the anti independence referendum card seems to be working for them.

Edinburgh Pentlands was Tory for a long time (used to be Malcom Rifkind) before going Labour for the first time in the late 90’s, not long before being merged into Edinburgh South West which was perhaps a more naturally Labour area (hence the reason for parachuting Alistair Darling – until he realised that Labour were toast in Scotland and retired before the last election).

With all the political issues since, especially the end of Labour as a force in Scottish politics, it’s kind of difficult to see where the seat will go. This business of votes going directly from Labour to the Tories is a bit of a strange one but might just be a consolidation of the unionist vote to the party they see as the only credible alternative to SNP. Very odd situation though.

Tory area here, 98% chance of retaining seat according to Electoralcalculus.co.uk.

I won’t vote as without giving my mandate I get to slag off everyone. 💡

Agree very strongly with Northwind and ChrisL. Votes have momentum beyond who gets in this time.

Also, looking at the electoral calculus results, I wonder if the weightings in his models are a bit off for Scotland compared to rUK.

Croydon Central here, Tory by 165 votes over Labour last time and there was also a very popular green party canidate. Greens are apparently pulling out this time which I am pleased about, more chance of getting rid of Barwell.

Proper marginal here (Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk) with SNP beating Conservative by only 328 votes (£55k turnout) and taking it from Lib Dem who had held the seat for a long time.

Also, looking at the electoral calculus results, I wonder if the weightings in his models are a bit off for Scotland compared to rUK.

I think the surge in Ukip votes in 2015 plus their collapse in the current polls is throwing things out a little.

Even if your preferred choice of party is vanishingly unlikely to win your constituency, a party’s overall percentage of the national vote affects how much coverage it gets generally and I think that there are rules that mean it helps determine whether they get party political broadcasts and other mandated exposure in the next election. Some votes are worth more than others but to a small extent no votes are wasted.

Overall votes has an effect on the Short Money available to each party too.

Here, Greens came fourth in 2015 but their relative closeness to the Lib Dem vote meant they were included in local TV debates this month.

I also think it gives a steer to whoever does get elected, knowing that x people in their constituency voted for party y.

Thought mine was fairly safe Lib Dem, but looks like there was only 2k over the Labour candidate last time.

Hmmm…

Cheltenham had been LibDem until the last election when the shiny young Con lawyer got in. The old LibDem guy is going against him this time which could well be a missed opportunity but we shall see – I suspect that it could be a lot closer run thing than the ElectoralCalculaus website suggests as people get less enamored with the Tories – this was a pretty Remain seat (not that you’d know it from Tory-boy-wonder’s voting history)

Lib Dem for 20 (?) years till 2015, now a safe Tory seat and getting safer (marginal vote Leave, big UKIP vote in 2015)

I am in a Labour Stronghold where 55% voted for Labour … 😯

I think the surge in Ukip votes in 2015 plus their collapse in the current polls is throwing things out a little.

UKIP only got 2.1% in Edinburgh South West in 2015 so shouldn’t really be a factor. The assumption seems to be roughly a halving of the Labour vote, with all of that going to the Tories along with all of the UKIP and green votes (neither of whom are putting up a candidate this time) as well as about 10% of the SNP vote. That’d give a massive swing to the Tories but doesn’t really sound all that likely – but I’ve been wrong before!

big UKIP vote in 2015

There’s a lot of assumption that given the UKIP implosion the Tories will hoover up all their votes.

That’s not necessarily so, though somehow I can’t see many switching from UKIP to the Lib Dems

last elections have gone:

tory
tory
tory
lib dem
lib dem
lib dem
(boundary change)
tory
tory

‘mon the liberals !

I am in a Labour Stronghold where 55% voted for Labour …

Phew, narrow escape for you there.

Richmond North Yorkshire slightly right of Fascist…. round here a Tory is a bleeding heart Liberal.

I shall be flying the Hammer and Sickle and manning the barricades

Marginal here. Went from lib dems (who’s share decreased 14%) to the local tory boy (who appears to all intents and purposes to be shit useless). Greens dead last with labour pretty much doing nothing. The labour rep doesn’t even live in the area and stands literally no chance. I can’t see it changing hands this year.

Gower here. Used to be a very safe labour seat. Conservatives won by 27odd votes last time. Depressing.

There’s a lot of assumption that given the UKIP implosion the Tories will hoover up all their votes.

All the polls seem to indicate that this is what’s happening. Ukip took voters roughly equally from Lab/Con, but they’re now moving to Con. That’s why Labour are polling roughly where they were under Ed Milliband.

according to Electoralcalculus.co.uk.

Well that’s a depressing website.

Apparently in my ward 1250 are expected to vote tory and just over 100 of us are expected to vote for all the other parties put together. The chance my constituency will vote tory is apparently exactly 100%. So probably not that marginal I’d have thought.

The most nationalist area of the country are a few streets around the central section of Walton Road in Walton-on-the-Naze

😆

With all the political issues since, especially the end of Labour as a force in Scottish politics, it’s kind of difficult to see where the seat will go. This business of votes going directly from Labour to the Tories is a bit of a strange one but might just be a consolidation of the unionist vote to the party they see as the only credible alternative to SNP. Very odd situation though.

We are Edinburgh South-West too. Hardly a scientific poll I know, but most folk I’ve spoken to here are voting tactically to keep the SNP out. We certainly are. Based on my findings the Tories should take about 95% of the vote, but as we live in Colinton I think the poll might not exactly be representative of the whole constituency!!!

Bristol East here. (Not sure if mentioned already…haven’t read whole thread.)

Normally a pretty safe Labour seat. Our MP since 2005, Kerry McCarthy is a pretty good constituency MP and gets involved in lots of local campaigns. She’s a Remainer in a remain constituency (although not by the percentage of Brizzle overall). She’s always had my vote and will get it again. A combination of support for her and keeping Tories out.

If anybody caught 5Live’s “Marginal Mystery Tour” today, they’ll have heard that it’s No.42 on the Tory hitlist. After the Tory candidate’s performance today, I can’t see it swinging blue – she knew nothing whatsoever about the constituency. I hope plenty of others heard her too. Just treating a constituency as a pawn in a power grab. She can do one.

EDIT: just remembered this is one of the constituencies where UKIP aren’t standing. So 7150 votes to go somewhere, most likely Tory where Labour’s majority was 4000. Yep, it’ll be close.

Just the 17,000 Tory majority to overturn here in Winchester to get the Lid Dems in.

Ticks about every box for ageing, selfish, don’t give a fork about anybody else, private school fee paying ass-wipes.

We were staunchly remain in the Brefiasco so I’m expecting a small Libs swing but nowhere near enough.

Oh and people round here drive how they vote, but that’s for another thread.

So Croydon Central is less marginal now. Labour have taken it from the Tories by over 6000 votes. Turnout of over 70% is impressive I think.