2k votes in it last time – pretty marginal.

Seen very little political activity though. Not many signs.

My seat used to be solid labour but went to SNP at the last GE. Certainly a target seat for labour

SNP candidate is completely useless, a liar and thoroughly unpleasant. Last time Labour put up a candidate who was even worse – lesley hinds the lying ex leader of the council. I couldn’t vote for her. This time labour are putting up a local bloke but still a councillor who I would like to vote for but he won’t answer my emails.

1200 votes.

The People’s Republic of Brighton and Hove…

My seat was Labour for a while (although has been Tory in the dim and distant) but is currently SNP. It looks like it might well be a Tory/SNP marginal this time out.

I always find my area hard to read. It is historically Labour, but judging by signs, I would have thought that Plaid Cymru or the Lib Dems were stronger. I guess in the end that there just isn’t enough support for a single one of the two ‘progressive’ alternatives to dislodge Labour.

EDIT: Just looked at the numbers, and it turns out that appearances can be deceiving. Labour has a pretty solid lock on the constituency. It’s not even close to marginal.

About 5k in it last time with greens finishing second. Hopefully they have a chance this time with more people realising they are a serious option as people seem to like to back winners. At least there is no chance of a Tory.

Supposedly mine is a Tory target seat- they keep throwing out mad predictions of gains in Scotland. But they need to more than double their vote so, good luck with that. We look pretty safe SNP now after years of being a 3-way battle.

True blue here. It really does make you wonder what the point of voting is when you know it will make eff all difference to the outcome.

Safe tory seat, held by the Scouse one who likes reality TV and lives in the Cotswolds (a fair journey from here!).

Projected as a close run between SNP and Conservative here, and the conservatives actually gained a councilor in the locals so there is obviously the support.

Strange constituency, a mix of two or three ex-mining-now-commuting villages, a major airport, then some very posh suburbs.

Our constituency has consistently returned a Labour MP to parliament with a circa 35% to 40% majority, about 10 – 15000 votes since the 1950’s until the the last general election when the SNP knocked them into second place by 10,000-odd votes.

I would expect the SNP to retain the seat for the forseeable future.

Labour held it last time, with 3158 (7.7%) majority. Ukip got 5392 (13.1%) votes last time, so should fall to Tory this time. Was Tory last time there was a large Tory majority. Electoral Calculus are predicting a 1% Tory majority.

Yup, Burnley.

Labour v Lib Dem straight fight.
Very different but equally good candidates, both local and both very well thought of.

Given the strength of the leave vote, I’d say we’ll stay Labour this time, but it’ll be tight.

Just checked the electoral calculus prediction and they’re showing 48% likelyhood of a Tory win in my seat, and 46% likelyhood for the SNP who currently hold it (by about 8000 votes from Labour). If that happens it’d have to be down to a massive swing directly from Labour to the Tories.

Solid Tory here in Wessex: if only there were an agreed protest vote an alternative might just win.

Pretty marginal here, Geoffrey Clinton-Brown is going to have to work hard if he wants to retain his seat, what with Electoral Calculus giving him a slim 98% chance of doing so… 🙄

Where I live in England (I have homes in Edinburgh and the London/Essex border but vote in Scotland) it looks like the seat is a Labour/Tory marginal. It’s Labour currently, with a 1.2% majority, but the polls are predicting it’ll go Tory with a 6% majority.

Was alway Lib Dem here until the dark day last year when Conservatives got in by huge margin. You tell our MP comes from a big land owning family as the amount of billboards in fields around here far outweighs any other candidate.

100% conservative hold 🙁

electoral calculus is complete nonsense for my seat. Shows it as a SNP tory marginal with a likely tory win.

complete nonsense.

Safe labour here in Stockport – veteran labour incumbent being in post for 25 years and is generally well regarded AFAICT. Seconded the motion of no-confidence in Jeremy last year, which will probably entrench her support amongst the silent and sane majority of labour voters.

Hahahahaha no.

Solid Tory seat and minimal chance of a change. Cambridge might swing though, possibly going back to the previous LibDem if he can persuade people enough

mine was a margin of 213 votes in 2005 LAB vs CON.
UKIP votes screw up the numbers since then though, so the numbers don’t look marginal any more. Most of their support must have come from LAB and not CON.

electoral calculus is complete nonsense for my seat. Shows it as a SNP tory marginal with a likely tory win.

complete nonsense.

Are you Edinburgh South West?

600 seats last time, historically labour, but went Tory in 2010 as the incumbent was “slightly tarred with excessive expenses payments”. The current MP is a co-author of the recent APPCG report ‘Cycling and the Justice System’.

10k tory majority,

ill vote anyway

sigh

Tory since it became a seat in the 1850’s and over 70% of the vote…. I’m finding it hard to summon up the energy to vote…. pointless 🙁

Yes, previously a bulletproof LD seat, but massive swing to SNP in 2015. Sick and tired of leaflets through the door to be honest.

I’m finding it hard to summon up the energy to vote…. pointless

You have to though, if only to show that even though we have a FPTP system, that May’s mandate is not reflective of the actual proportion of vote.

odd Tory / SNP seat here, has flipped between two since I was a lad (incl. Winnie Ewing.) Tory target apparently, will see how that pans out, lots of farming, some light industry, fishing, and a couple of MoD bases to skew things from Brexit / No..

That electoral calculus thing looks wrong for my constituency.
was ca. 49% CON win in the Thatcher-Major era, and 49% LAB win in the Blair era, then a decimation of the LAB vote in 2010.
Now they predict 57% CON hold, which is clearly nonsense. That’s quite some majority for a seat that had ony 213 votes in it, and several recounts. I reckon too much of the recent UKIP support has been re-allocated to CON, and not LAB.
If 57% really is Tory support, then get ready for a CON landslide that will top Blair’s majority.

epicsteve – edinburgh north and leith

for the tories to take it it would need their vote to triple even if the tories take all the labour votes its still not enough.

Been labour for a long time, went conservative last time by 27 votes, so pretty marginal I think! lots of blue bill boards up, some already defaced 😆

epicsteve – Member

Are you Edinburgh South West?

Hah, I just had a look at that on Electoral Calculus, wonder what they’ve been drinking. The numbers only add up if essentially every swing vote from every party goes Tory, including the Greens and SNP.

I’ve had a lot of time for electoral calculus but if this is the quality of forecast for this year it asks some questions… TJ’s seat is similar, it’s almost like they’ve started from “have the Tories win by a couple of percent” and then worked backwards.

17k / 35% Tory majority here. That there website is predicting a 51% majority this time round. Prior to 2010 it was a solid LibDem seat, the then MP retired, he was well thought of locally, and it’s been Tory since.

There is a local councillor / mayor who is running as an Independent candidate, he’s very well though of within the city so things may change. That website isn’t taking that in to account.

Here’s hoping.

16k Tory majority last time around. I’ll still be voting though.

Safe(ish) Labour in Bury South. In neighbouring Bury North the Tories only won by 331 votes though.

Labour beat the conservatives here last time by less than 2000 votes I think. Lib dems seem to be getting a growing level of support which I can only imagine will split the Labour vote and hand it all over to the Tories.

Small tory majority here in South Gloucestershire but there is a good chance that Jack Lopresti will get kicked out as a result of education cuts. Every parent pretty angry at reduced curriculum, 4.5 day week and 45 pupils per class from September.

Massively safe Tory seat here, and a lot of UKIP voters last time around which I should think will switch to Con.

Electoralcalculus.co.uk has us at 97% chance Tory. 🙁