Free trade within Europe is a legitimate argument for staying in Europe

Not really it isn’t. See Norway and Switzerland. Sadly most people appear to be ignorant of their trading position with Europe.

Oh lordy!! Its all going off!

Probably almost as difficult as it is for Swiss and Norwegian companies to sell stuff into the EU.

Well they may be cross with us for leaving and they may give us different trading rules with their bloc than they give others – they may even refuse.
Also worth nothing

It allows the EFTA-EEA states to participate in the EU’s Internal Market without being members of the EU. They adopt almost all EU legislation related to the single market, except laws on agriculture and fisheries.

So we would still have time directive etc and various other compliance issues that we hate for being restrictive [ ie they reduce the ability of employers to exploit us] but this time with next to no say in them. I don’t think is what the sceptics are campaigning for tbh and would seem the worst of both worlds

We’d be a member of the EEA

What like Scotland would keep the pound when they leave the Union?
It seems to me the Unionists are very confused about unions and what happens when you leave them 😕
I would not take that for granted and nor would I think that the EU wont negotiate a heavy price for that membership

That preety much sums it up the Unionists want to dictate to folk. We seem to think we can leave, dictate to them on our terms so we can have only the benefits and they will let us do this. I rather think they will be mightily pissed off at us for leaving and will tell us to do one – much like they are saying to Scotland if they leave.
I suppose it is possible we can have our cake and eat it but it is highly unlikely this will happen

I still find it funny that the very same people campaigning to save the union are campaigning to levae the union. In essence they like unions if they dictate the terms and not if they have to compromise. Is it a national trait ?

The trade argument is a little more complicated that generally presented and hardly a, “EU would stop trading with the UK if it left the EU” idea (or words to that effect).

The history of our balance of trade with Europe is sufficient to tell anyone that it would be foolhardy for Europeans to accept any form of trade obstacles between the UK and member states – Europeans export more goods to us than we export to them. There are many ways in which noses can be cut off to spite UK and European faces, but this is one of the more obvious and would be folly on all sides. Hence the raft of free trade agreements that have been and, most likely, will be drawn up to protect each party’s interests.

So we would still have time directive etc and various other compliance issues that we hate for being restrictive

I don’t think those are related to the single market, so I doubt that would be the case. Not that the working time directive is one I personally think we should get rid off, but there is an awful lot of other stuff we could. I accept your point about having to comply with rules we have no say in – at least this is something sensible to debate, unlike suggesting that suddenly we’d have loads of trade barriers, which is where the EU debate always seems to end up. THM has this one – it would be in nobodies interest for the UK not to be part of the EEA if it left the EU, if anything it would be worse for the EU than for us if we weren’t. In much the same way as in reality UK rump wouldn’t actually stop Scotland using the pound if it became independent.

I still find it funny that the very same people campaigning to save the union are campaigning to levae the union. In essence they like unions if they dictate the terms and not if they have to compromise. Is it a national trait ?

Is it just as ironic that those wanting to leave the union are wanting to stay in the union? Ditto.

Yes I am sure neither side would press the nuclear option but it is not like this issue is being rationally debated so they may make an emotive decision just like we might

No guarantee is my point but yes I would assume some sort of free trade area would exist but it may not simply be and off we go to the EEA

Europeans export more goods to us than we export to them

57 exported %v 55 % imported in 2008 – I have different figures from you *
Remember the EU has other markets and is a bigger economy. We loose over half of our trade they loose what less than 10 %** of the entire EU trade.
*http://www.tutor2u.net/blog/files/EU_Revision_UK_Trade_with_EU.pdf happy to see other trade figures
** a guess but either way much less a % hit than ours

if anything it would be worse for the EU than for us if we weren’t

this is hubris rather than fact tbh
Yes without us they will be nothing… people really think this dont they…they cannot cope without us – they say this to scotland as well dont they – without england you will flounder
It is as rational s the view of the English football teams ability

No guarantee is my point but yes I would assume some sort of free trade area would exist but it may not simply be and off we go to the EEA

In which case that’s something to be negotiated and debated, rather than the tired old stuff about leaving definitely impacting our trade – see how many times that has been suggested on this thread (which includes all the stuff about Japanese companies moving out). If the answer is that we wouldn’t have an EEA like trade agreement then the position is somewhat different and I agree that the disadvantages of leaving would likely outweigh the advantages, but that is extremely unlikely to be the case.

At the end of the day a lot of this stuff would be decided by civil servants and they tend to do rationality rather than emotion. Even politicians do more often than not manage to come up with workable compromises when their backs are against the wall. I very much doubt the EU would want to take any hit at all on their trade right now, or at any time in the forseeable future – in that respect we’re in a somewhat stronger position than them!

I suspect we might not even be able to agree on this, but it is at least something rather more interesting to discuss than the usual EU lies and propaganda.

this is hubris rather than fact tbh

The point is JY, that there really are no facts as such. That’s the whole point. Its all conjecture and guesswork. And wildly different guesses from one extreme to the other.

I think that’s why all the main parties consistently shy away from the issue. It might go one way, might go the other. Nobody knows. Better the devil you know, and all that

As far as trade goes, I can’t see them stopping us shipping Swindon-Made Hondas to the continent, as then they’d have to stop shipping BMW’s to Basingstoke too. Or little Citreons to Stretford. I can’t see that happening really. Can you?

The UK is merely a side show, but could be a catalyst for wider changes that scare the EU elite. The far more pressing issues are France and the PIIGS. If they are not sorted out, then the UK becomes even less of an issue as much as we (or at least our papers and politicians) may not like that fact.

This current debate is false for the simple reason is that future planning needs to be considered against the future structure of the EU not the current or historic one. If there is one certainty in this, it is that the status quo cannot endure – that is the only known in the world of unknowns.

aracer

VAT is set by the member country

Well apart from the EU setting a minimum level that is.

What 0%? It wasn’t the EU that pushed up our VAT rates from 0%, 8% and 12.5% but the UK Govt. Initial they went to 15% (except 0% rated) to cover the Poll Tax fiasco and then up to 17.5% (again except 0% and 5% rated).

There aren’t many countries with 0% rated items anyway.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_rates_of_Europe

I can’t see that happening really. Can you?

No i cannot see it happening either but that doe snot mean UK will get the favourable terms they think they deservse

As for Honda they will solve the issue by simply making them in Europe

You are right we dont know what will happen if we leave so lets spend another 8 pages guessing 😉

I’m sticking with my inner-city kebab wars theory

I am sticking with a drunken angry debate on Darwen moor in the rain followed by a fight…bagssy having the big european bear on my side 😉

We might not have to have some of the more absurd rulings handed down from Brussels.

Such as the recent EU-wide ban on neonicotinoids? Strange that the UK and Germany were the amongst the countries that opposed the vast amount of science supporting the ban. Nothing to do whatsoever with the fact that these chemicals are manufactured in these two countries?

I find myself in a strange position of agreeing with an EU ruling. perhaps they are good for something.

I find myself in a strange position of agreeing with an EU ruling. perhaps they are good for something.

They make so many laws, occasionally they’re bound to make a mistake.

What 0%?

No, 15%. “Supplies of goods and services subject to VAT are normally subject to a standard rate of at least 15%” http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/taxation/vat/how_vat_works/rates/

I’m fairly sure the rise to 15% was to comply with that, and nothing to do with the community charge.

The main driver for the EU was / is Germany’s guilt over two World Wars

Original plan was written by a French geezer Robert Schuman. I think* the very first sentance if the very first paragraph of the plan that predates the EU by several decades was ” to mark the birth of a united Europe” so it’s not like we didn’t know what we were getting into in the first place.

* from memory, happy to be corrected by someone with access to google

They make so many laws, occasionally they’re bound to make a mistake.

If only you were as successful with your posting on here 😉

You’re on JY!!! Cheeky Vimto-fueled Euro violence it is then! 😀

I’m fairly sure the rise to 15% was to comply with that

rise to 15%? that was way way way back. In fact so afar back the EU wasn’t even the EU then, so was 15% an EEC thing imposed on UK?

Some rates have been tinkered with, up and down, between the full rate and reduced rate, but any that went up to a full rate, went up to 17.5% or 20%.

Boats from other countries fishing in UK waters isn’t a global problem.

Boats from other countries are allowed to fish in UK waters because UK fishermen sold them thier quotas.

I think the short answer is nobody knows as it is dependent on too many variables such as.

How long would it take for trade agreements to be negotiated between the UK and everyone else. If its quick then not so much of an issue. If it takes along time then it will be a problem.

How will industry that is based in the UK but largely exports within the EU react. If it stays then not much effect. If it leaves then a big impact. This will probably depend on the outcome of the trade agreements.

aracer – Member
Jeez – you did this before.

how dare I point out that the countries you use as examples are the 2 most expensive in the world

You see Luxembourg, Denmark, Sweden up near the top of that list? Scroll down a few pages you’ll find Macedonia, Moldova, Albania located a little below Romania. Do you really think there’s a correlation between EU membership and cost of living?
Why exactly would ours change if we left the EU?

of course I dont, it was a question and using similar logic why not use Albania and Macedonia as your examples of non-EU countries that are doing so well?

Of course the cost of living is also totally unrelated to international trade relationships.

is this sarcasm or just poorly thought out?

The main driver for the EU was / is Germany’s guilt over two World Wars

eh? has germany ever accepted clause 231 of the treaty of versailles ? if they have, i’m not sure that they should.

whilst accepting that the irreversible rise of german power made war with france, britain and russia a possibility, i doubt that anyone in their right mind would argue that germany was the sole cause of world war one.

This is a real conundrum for me, it’s the knotty issue of the day…

whitegoodman – Member

In the long run we’d be better off, 11-15 billion for starters..

Should I go with “Citation needed” or “Show your working”?

Calculations as it so retro to see a scanned back of the fag packet calculation
They covered this on Radio 4 and the short answer was no one knows.
All the studies are political in nature and assume loads of red tape etc for the cost savings which is highly debatable to put it mildly.

FWIW each of the other members pay a % of their Gross national income to us in rebate to reduce our contribution so they would also be paying less if we left – Win win scenario??

Maybe the UK government should ask the EU to explain what the EU position would be should the UK vote to leave. Or maybe they’re afraid that someone might ask them to do the same thing in a similar situation 😕

FWIW each of the other members pay a % of their Gross national income to us in rebate to reduce our contribution so they would also be paying less if we left – Win win scenario??

Given we’re net contributors it would seem unlikely. The rebate is after all a typical EU fudge when it would have been simpler for us to just pay less.

how dare I point out that the countries you use as examples are the 2 most expensive in the world

Which is completely irrelevant to the amount of import duty paid on their exports to the EU and the difficulty they have selling into the EU.

using similar logic why not use Albania and Macedonia as your examples of non-EU countries that are doing so well?

Why don’t you check back what I wrote which you replied to? I couldn’t care less how well they’re doing – I was interested in their trade relations with the EU. I didn’t use Albania or Macedonia because they don’t have the same trade relationship.

“Of course the cost of living is also totally unrelated to international trade relationships.”

is this sarcasm or just poorly thought out?

You see that list you provided? Note where Luxembourg and Romania are on it? You tell me…

Given we’re net contributors it would seem unlikely. The rebate is after all a typical EU fudge when it would have been simpler for us to just pay less.*

The rebate is calculated as approximately two-thirds of the amount by which UK payments into the EU exceed EU expenditure returning to the UK. Currently the rebate is worth £5 billion (GBP) a year and the UK remains one of the largest net contributors. The method of calculating the rebate is complex, but its effect is to increase contributions required from all other member states, to make up the loss from the overall budget.*Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and Austria all have their contribution to make up for the rebate capped to 25% of the figure which would otherwise apply, leaving France to make up for the main part of the increase in what Britain would pay without the rebate. Final calculations of the rebate are only made four years after the budget year in question.

* within the EU this is calculated as if they gave it to us – whether they really do who knows