OK so the other day I was working late and caught the MD having a 'moment' with one of the other employees. I decide to cash in on this and I'm running a guess the name of the employee (the sex doesn't matter in this game but it does in the other) that the MD slept with last night.
I have a board with everyone's name on it (there are 100 in total) and I'm charging £1 a go.
Having sold 25 goes, i.e. 25 names have been taken by punters, the next person I try to sell one to needs a bit of convincing. I say they stand to win the £100 pot if they guess correctly, giving them a return on their original investment of 9900%.
The person is not convinced and asks me what are his chances of guessing correctly. Apart from being a coniving, malicious t**t, I am also compelled to tell the truth whenever anyone asks me a question. So, what do I tell him in answer to his question of probability?