Probability puzzle No.2
OK so the other day I was working late and caught the MD having a ‘moment’ with one of the other employees. I decide to cash in on this and I’m running a guess the name of the employee (the sex doesn’t matter in this game but it does in the other) that the MD slept with last night.
I have a board with everyone’s name on it (there are 100 in total) and I’m charging £1 a go.
Having sold 25 goes, i.e. 25 names have been taken by punters, the next person I try to sell one to needs a bit of convincing. I say they stand to win the £100 pot if they guess correctly, giving them a return on their original investment of 9900%.
The person is not convinced and asks me what are his chances of guessing correctly. Apart from being a coniving, malicious t**t, I am also compelled to tell the truth whenever anyone asks me a question. So, what do I tell him in answer to his question of probability?Posted 9 years agofunkynickSubscriber
It can never be 1 in 100 even at the very beginning if there are 100 employees, as they can rule themselves out immediately.
That only changes if they are the person everyone is trying to guess, in which case the odds are 100%!
In this case, and you know if the correct name has been chosen or not, it will depend:-
Correct name not chosen, their own name still free:- 1/74 or 1Posted 9 years ago
Correct name not chosen, their own namt not free:- 1/75
Correct name already chosen:- 0
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