FN are happy enough I am sure, they are still in the game and saw off the Republicans. Stunning really that the incumbant Government came 5th. I would expect Macron to win but who can be certain – I find it hard to believe he has been abke to cast himself as somethung new – a banker and ex PS member and minister. Le Penn will pick up votes from Melechon and further left. My wife will probably vote for no one, zero chance she will vote for Macron.

@milleboy hard to know how Macron will handle Brexit if/when he wins, he’s really a one man band. As an ex banker and very much a centerist its easy to think he’d be very pragmatic, the last thing he needs is a revolt from the farmers after a hard-Brexit. He had eggs thrown at him when he visited the big Paris agricultural show during his campaign.

he’s really a one man band

and yet my son rang from science po with his procuration wishes and quoted a list of respected big name politicians who had rallied behind Macron long before the elections. Weeks ago there were 100 000 En Marche activists beavering away to turn a movement into a party for the législatives.

no the FN are not happy enough . they were hopping for a lot more . the have been ahead in the polls for along time .

I doubt the Melenchon voters will vote FN .

if Macron wins , a lot of people are going to join his movement . my local mp , a Fillon follower , has not mentioned Fillo once in the past few weeks .
I am certain he will join Macron , and he wont be the only one .

Fillon has called on his supporters to back Macron in round two hasn’t he cchris2lou? And Melenchon has said he doesn’t support either of the two.

Snap ipsos poll: Macron 62% LePen 38%

UK: Brexit
USA: “Hold my beer…”
France: “Tenez mon vin…”

😀

I’m just here to laugh at sbob.

kelvin – Member

I’m just here to laugh at sbob.

Still nothing to add?

With all that hot air I’m moving my portfolio into balloons! 🙂

Try imagining we’re speaking face to face.
Can you see how silly it would be to not actually offer an opinion or counter? 💡

Why don’t you sleep on it. 🙂

deadlydarcy – Member
Fillon has called on his supporters to back Macron in round two hasn’t he cchris2lou? And Melenchon has said he doesn’t support either of the two.

Snap ipsos poll: Macron 62% LePen 38%
Yep you would have to say more will be willing to move to Macron than LePen, she must be running fairly high on the never vote for list. Hopefully it’s a good stop on the EU wrecking ball project. To be fair you could probably run some posters asking why Trump wants LePen to win if Macron needs some more support.
Some interesting stuff on her inner circle
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/13/world/europe/marine-le-pen-national-front-party.html
Something I hope is front and centre out there in France now.

I am hoping all the candidates will support Macron.

The more Trump supports Lepen, the more votes she looses.

hard to know how Macron will handle Brexit if/when he wins

😯

Do you read or follow any news coverage ?

he favours a hard brexit and labelled leaving a crime. Everyone knows his position but you apparently

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/24/french-presidential-favourite-emmanuel-macron-hard-bargain-brexit-talks
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/774389/French-Presidential-candidate-Emmanuel-Macron-Theresa-May-Brexit-France-Britain-EU
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/21/french-presidential-hopeful-emmanuel-macron-meets-theresa-may/

60/40 is indeed the expected result in Macron’s favour. Fillion was quite clear he would vote for Macron to keep out Le Pen, as we all said eariler it will be a big tactical vote against Le Pen not for Macron.

IMO Macron will simply deliver more of the (failed) same as the Socialists. He will do nothing to take on Unions or modernise France’s Labour laws. Unemployment will continue to be very high especially amongst the young. He will not back a hard-Brexit as that will be a disaster for French farmers and car manufacturers (who are close to bust), he will not want the civil unrest.

European stock markets approve of the result it seems

How many times does he need to say hard brexit before you believe him?

If you deny it enough then it will happen or something like that, or you can reference yourself etc.

The very nature of the system leads to a for or against outcome. As the others did not get close you have to pick from a list of 2. How you decide is up to you but he came out ahead of all the others in round 1 and has the broader appeal (ie he is not a fascist surrounding himself with other fascists)

I think I’ll prefer the original 🙂

@welsh yes, nightmare scenario for EU of Le Pen / Melechon final two averted. As an ex-member of Hollande’s Government people expect “more of the same” from Macron and that’s something the markets can plan for.

He will not back a hard-Brexit as that will be a disaster for French farmers and car manufacturers (who are close to bust), he will not want the civil unrest.

But you back a hard Brexit despite the damage to UK farmers and car manufacturing?

But you back a hard Brexit despite the damage to UK farmers and car manufacturing?

TNUMTWNT! 😀

French car manufacturer close to bust ?

PSA have just bought Opel, and Renault Mitsubishi.

They get help from French government but it works for everybody.

A piece by Guy in Saturday’s Grauniad.

Not a long read, so Brexiters might manage it in two attempts 😉 etc. But I liked this paragraph:

What has been billed as a “Brexit election” is an attempted power grab by the Tories, who wish to take advantage of a Labour party in seeming disarray to secure another five years of power before the reality of Brexit bites. Will the election of more Tory MPs give May a greater chance of securing a better Brexit deal? For those sitting around the table in Brussels, this is an irrelevance. British officials will represent the people of the UK in the negotiations, regardless of the number of Tory MPs.

Good lord Jamba, big shark jumped there. Shocked at you.

What has been billed as a “Brexit election” is an attempted power grab by the Tories, who wish to take advantage of a Labour party in seeming disarray to secure another five years of power before the reality of Brexit bites. Will the election of more Tory MPs give May a greater chance of securing a better Brexit deal? For those sitting around the table in Brussels, this is an irrelevance. British officials will represent the people of the UK in the negotiations, regardless of the number of Tory MPs.

Yeah pretty much what I expected.

EU have said they will deal with whoever is the government, that’s it really, it’s just a job.

It’s our side that are pitching it as gladiatorial combat, old simmering enmities (centuries old no less) reignited.

A pretty good summary imo that with no Party behind him it’s not claer what sort of Government Macron (if/when elected) could form and what he could axhieve.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39689191

That’s the inevitable result of an “anti-establishment” vote, no Jambalaya?

Le Pen only has two MPs, so faces the same issue if she wins… in fact I’d wager she’d find it harder to work with MPs not from her own party than he will.

If the people of France want a government drawn from candidates not tied to the two establishment parties, they’ll have to vote for MPs that support that. More than the President needs to change, and that’s down to voters.

Back to Brexit… are you still gung-ho for a WTO rules hard Brexit, yet excepting that it’ll hit farmers and car plants hard on both sides of the channel? Lose-lose?

Yes it’s nowhere near in the bag, and it’s a shame to see France so divided. (FAO Mrs May, just like our country).

I saw an interesting tweet asking if there was a movement back from left vs right to more historical conservative/nationalist and centre/optimist.

Look at those two flags behind him…must have wound you and this missus right up jamba.

It’s OK, our Nige is on it.

Macron speaking with EU flag behind him. Says it all.

— Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) April 23, 2017

France divided? France this, France that.

When was a country ever united in choosing a leader? Korea, Iraq, Libya – that’s right, countries with sham democracy. In real democracies people vote according to their interests and views – which aren’t identical so you have multiple divisions. But we aren’t exactly in a civil war.

There were about 20 of us in the room at vote counting with the main factions represented. Everyone was interested in the results but I didn’t hear any derogatory comments about the candidates and those who voted for them.

If you are worried by Le Pen, read her programme. A lot less nationalistic, inward-looking, anti-Europe, right wing… than May and Co.

And don’t forget that à lot of people vote FN as a protest in the first round.

And as i said earlier, a lot of mp from every side will join Macron.

I saw one newspapers headline saying that for the first time youngster had the vote they wanted.

Strong mandate my arse:

Tweet

France divided? France this, France that.

I take division in this sense to mean the electorate evenly balanced on a specific binary issue.

Would be great to see a young politician here come and energise the youth vote, especially in light of the oldies shafting them with their brexit

So on that basis what divides France, Mattjq? Male/Female and ?

To be fair many brexit voters don’t know how to use a computer so if that pole is internet based they would be exculded.

If you are worried by Le Pen, read her programme. A lot less nationalistic, inward-looking, anti-Europe, right wing… than May and Co.

While I agree with you there, FN has a history that can not be ignored. Le Pen has moved the polices of her party away from where it was, but the suspicion of most people over here in the UK is that is just about making her party appear more electable, not a rejection of an agenda historically far too close to the darkest chapter in European politics. Interesting that for a large chunk of French voters the party isn’t seen this way.

History unlearnt?

Strong mandate my arse:

That’s why there is a snap election… that fragile wafer thin mandate could will be eroded by 2020… so having elections now and in 2022 is much safer for May & Co.

To be fair many brexit voters don’t know how to use a computer so if that pole is internet based they would be exculded.

Coming over here, stealing our bandwidth…

France is not divided… Predictions gives Macron 61% and Le Pen 39% of the votes in the 2nd election.

They get help from French government

and via Chinese too. My point exactly.

Chris its just like those high speed trains they bought to keep the favtory open, except there aren’t the tracks yet to run them on. It’s just another huge state bailout

@google 40% of the country is expected to be voting FN despite all the establishment labelling them as extreme right. Nearly 50% voted that way in Austria and 30% in Holland. UKIP get 12% – imagine UKIP on 30-50% ?

Think about that – 40% are likely to vote FN despite all the insults and name calling

So on that basis what divides France, Mattjq? Male/Female and ?

Near equal Le Pen/Macron vote.

But I’m happy to be wrong if I’m wrong.

despite all the establishment labelling them as extreme right

The party labelled themselves this.
Their current leader is working hard to counteract this.
The label didn’t come from the “establishment”, but from the facist and Vichy remnants that founded the party.