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EU Referendum – are you in or out?
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superleggeroFree Member
Re what happens next, some interesting stuff from a piece co authored by three legal experts for the UK Constitutional Law Association. I know it’s now accepted wisdom that people in this country have had enough of experts, but what the hey, it might be worth bucking the trend and having a look at what they have to say…
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-uk-leaves-the-eu-36671629
edenvalleyboyFree MemberGenuine question here please. Post Brexit – when we are negotiating new deals what is it that we have that will give us the power we need to be successful as a country? As in, do we have stuff that others need and cannot get elsewhere or cheaper via EU trade deals?
TurnerGuyFree MemberTrading with Australia.. by pure coincidence I’m trying to have an informal call with someone in Sydney. It’s taken a couple of days so far because of the time zone difference which means that he is leaving work as I’m starting. Pain in the balls.
Try getting up earlier ???
Put some credit on your skype account and call him using skype – will end up costing you for a local rate phone call in Australia.
meftyFree MemberMIFID 2 brings passporting into stark relief as you can’t even deal with professional counterparties without being in the EU or obtaining “equivalency”, we won’t know where we stand on equivalence so my understanding is that organisations are already looking to apply for regulatory approval in Amsterdam or Dublin as a backstop.
gordimhorFull MemberGood post Graham S. Thm there was a lot of BS in the Better Together campaign for example naval ships were to be built on the clyde , where are they, and we were told again and again that the way to maintain eu membership was to vote no. That went well. Better Together was a poor campaign, helped out by a press/media that really only reflected one side of the argument.
Back on topic Remain lost this referendum as much as leave won it.IMO Cameron went for the same approach in the EU referendum project fear mk2 and it had the same result ie the relentless overblown warnings of disaster drove people away from Remain. Labour is also to blame the party at mp/mep/msp level has taken it’s support for granted for decades, the lacklustre campaign by Corbyn and Alan Johnstone didn’t get their vote out and may have let UKIP in. Then press /media also played a roll they didn’t put forward any positive progressive case for leave, not all their fault since Corbyn was virtually invisible at times. The media really shaped the debate in tone and substance and too many politicians sunk to the same level. We may not need more control of the press but we do need a more diverse press (edit)kimbersFull MemberLabour is also to blame the party at mp/mep/msp level has taken it’s support for granted for decades, the lacklustre campaign by Corbyn and Alan Johnstone didn’t get their vote out and may have let UKIP in.
Labour voters were 63% remain vs 42% for Torys
edit sorry you meant GE?
gordimhorFull MemberGood point Kimbers but I just wonder how many stayed away
No Kimbers referring to the eu referendum . Sorry cross editsoldnpastitFull Memberwhat is it that we have that will give us the power we need to be successful as a country?
We’re totally awesome obviously. Everyone will be falling over themselves to buy our hot buttered crumpets and warm ale.
jambalayaFree MemberCarney (BoE) just indicated interest rates may well be cut this summer. I interpret this as as a move to ease any recessionary pressures on the economy.
GrahamSFull MemberCarney (BoE) just indicated interest rates may well be cut this summer
Yeah ThisIsMoney were tipping that a few days ago.
Not a lot of room left to cut them though is there? 0.25%? 0%?
jambalayaFree Member@molgrips quite technical “risk retention” rules designed to make transactions safer for investors (which they don’t really do) my competitors in US and Asia don’t have to comply and as our joint client base is globally and as largely outside the EU they don’t require then either. These rules have a cost so compliant deals (the ones I can buy) have a lower return (interest rate) and are thus less attractive to clients. As a solution to this I proposed personally relocating to the US but that wouldn’t help as the firm itself is regulated in the UK
Obviously this is only one example and there will be many others where being in the EU is an advantage
@mefty I believe a full branch in an EU country would solve that, thats they way people used to organise themselves before these new rules. Has an overhead in terms of capital, regulatory staff etc so costs. I recall my old employer had relations and such structures in 50 different countries as its very internationally focused. As such its not that hard or expensive to do.
bainbrgeFull MemberOf course it’s to ease recessionary pressure – created entirely by the lunatic decision to leave the EU. It’s the only measure the BoE can take to mitigate the utter insanity of what has happened.
The passporting I don’t know what planet you are on Jamba, but why on earth would an FS business want to establish 50 branches, when they could just passport. In any case, they would need to be capitalised entities.
molgripsFree Member@jam so we have additional regulation designed to protect investors – and this is a bad thing? Would you see these regulations removed? Don’t you think investors need protecting?
bainbrgeFull MemberMol they won’t get removed – protection for unsophisticated investors in the UK is largely homegrown regulation. Protection for the big boys is going to be driven by supranational regulation, as is regulation around capital requirements etc. If there are any international Financial services businesses left in the UK in 2 years time, they’ll comply with the supranational rules still.
The promise of reduced regulation post Brexit is a total crock.
binnersFull MemberSo given the statements out of Brussels over the last week, and the utterly shambolic, totally clueless, plan-less nature of the Leave mob, does anyone NOT think that what we’re going to end up with, a couple of years down the line is an agreement with the EU involving….
A) Britain paying the same amount into EU coffers, minus the rebate, as the price for access to the european market
B) The free movement of people, and thus immigration unchanged.
C) The acceptance of all EU rules, regulations and ‘red tape’
D) No say in EU decisions any more.I’d put my house on it
Are you realising this yet Jammers? Like Boris clearly has? Or are you still sticking with the frankly laughable notion that this great nation is going to be negotiating from a position of strength? 😆
molgripsFree MemberMol they won’t get removed – protection for unsophisticated investors in the UK is largely homegrown regulation.
Ok, good – but the point is an academic one – regulation might well hurt profitability, but that could be a GOOD thing. It certainly is with regards environmental legislation.
teamhurtmoreFree MemberOf course it’s to ease recessionary pressure – created entirely by the lunatic decision to leave the EU. It’s the only measure the BoE can take to mitigate the utter insanity of what has happened.
The passporting I don’t know what planet you are on Jamba, but why on earth would an FS business want to establish 50 branches, when they could just passport. In any case, they would need to be capitalised entities.
Quite.
kimbersFull MemberAgree with binners
I think the EUs own rules on migration may have changed by then, but yeah, if we want to keep the good stuff, like scientific collaboration and cultural exchanges, we’ll have to pay in, will we get the Euro development grants too tho?
The lost years of stagnation while we negotiate, and the innate hatred of the poor of our even righter wing government, means the disadvantaged UKIP heartlands, will be even more dumped upon.But at least we’ll have all that power back, maybe out of the echr, probably air pollution laws too, halcyon days for sure
slowoldmanFull MemberI agree with binners too. But at least we won’t have the embarrassment of seeing Farage perform in the European parliament.
Tiger6791Full MemberGove has played Boris like a Violin..
I’m almost having to admire him for the shear treachery and depths and out and out shafting.
In a strange twist of fate, if we must negotiate he may be of some use, probably promise something and then before the EU knows it they have given the UK Ireland back and thrown in the Netherlands as a sweetener.
JunkyardFree MemberI am not so sure as they will IMHPO need to have another vote if we dont leave and none of the tories are saying anything other than respect the decision
TBH Gove is of such staggering hubris that his ego could make him do anything and he may well be in the pocket of his media “chums”ferralsFree MemberIs anyone else suffering from a kind of post-Brexit ennui? As the farce rumbles on I find myself more and more depressed by the whole sordid affair. We’ve done ourselves over and our political system is in meltdown yet there is nothing we can do about it. To start with I was hoping someone would have the balls to say the referendum was irrelevant and keep us in the EU, but I’m realising that they are all too spineless. Without sounding o.t.t. I just can’t be arsed to do anything due to a total lack of faith in, or excitement for the future. Probably doesn’t help I’m on holiday and am just reading the guardian website all day long!
JunkyardFree Membert I’m realising that they are all too spineless
Why are we upset that we have politicians too spineless to ignore the will of the people?
Had we won would be encouraging them to ignore the voters?
teamhurtmoreFree MemberFerrals – yes, I have gone back to the angry phase having accepted it quite quickly last week. Triggered by the appalling behaviour of our two major parties.
For the BSers now to be essentially proposing the status quo is the last straw – well almost, perhaps that was an round robin email from Hargreaves Lansdowne talking about Brexit investment plans. Hargreaves was a backer of the BSers who have caused this unnecessary chaos…..I just held back from a very rude email this evening.
MSPFull MemberIn a strange twist of fate, if we must negotiate he may be of some use, probably promise something and then before the EU knows it they have given the UK Ireland back and thrown in the Netherlands as a sweetener.
His dealings with the teachers consisted of slagging them in the daily mail and the Murdoch papers to try and turn the country against them. Which in the modern world of journalism meant it got repeated on the news.
But that public shouting domestically will barely reach the continent.
In fact that seams to be the tory party’s only negotiating tactic these days. They would rather do a bad deal with lots of shouting that they can spin as a win, than a good deal done quietly.
brFree Member@molgrips quite technical “risk retention” rules designed to make transactions safer for investors (which they don’t really do) my competitors in US and Asia don’t have to comply and as our joint client base is globally and as largely outside the EU they don’t require then either. These rules have a cost so compliant deals (the ones I can buy) have a lower return (interest rate) and are thus less attractive to clients. As a solution to this I proposed personally relocating to the US but that wouldn’t help as the firm itself is regulated in the UK
Finally, after 246 pages we get to why you want to screw the country, your own financial gratification – f***ing Bankers!
ferralsFree Member@Junkyard, I think the very fact there was no plan drawn up for a leave vote suggests that few expected the result. The whole concept of a referendum was foolish and most MPs would like to remain in the EU. Politicians should stick up for their convictions and I naively thought someone would.
As team hurt more said it looks we’ll end up a worse version of business as usual but without any ability to influence decisions. Oh, and we’ll be being ruled by a non-elected PM, a cornerstone issue for leave voters, given that all conservative candidates have ruled out a snap election.
JunkyardFree MemberPoliticians should stick up for their convictions
true but none of their convictions should include ignoring the will of the electorate as expressed in a plebiscite
ferralsFree MemberIs it what is happening really the will of the electorate though? If there had been a sensibly fought referendum, with a clear manifesto and plan for what happens when we leave, I think, while I’d be disappointed, I could accept it. Given that everyone has just run away saying ‘we didn’t really mean that’ / ‘it’s not for me to fix,’ I struggle to believe that the majority of the country are happy
steveoathFree Memberbinners – Member
So given the statements out of Brussels over the last week, and the utterly shambolic, totally clueless, plan-less nature of the Leave mob, does anyone NOT think that what we’re going to end up with, a couple of years down the line is an agreement with the EU involving….A) Britain paying the same amount into EU coffers, minus the rebate, as the price for access to the european market
B) The free movement of people, and thus immigration unchanged.
C) The acceptance of all EU rules, regulations and ‘red tape’
D) No say in EU decisions any more.I’d put my house on it
So we basically lose the eu grants? This is what i reckon, and why leave have shafted the uk.
ferralsFree MemberNot to mention greater costs regarding the borders, especially if Scotland leaves
Larry_LambFree MemberEU Trade Commissioner: No trade talks until full Brexit –
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36678222
That’s quite worrying.
brFree MemberThat’s quite worrying.
Yes, and seems that she’s just repeating what the ‘rules’ say – so presumably this was known BEFORE Cameron even offered the referendum, even more lies?
JunkyardFree MemberGiven that everyone has just run away saying ‘we didn’t really mean that’ / ‘it’s not for me to fix,’ I struggle to believe that the majority of the country are happy
I dont disagree but we need another vote at the point where we have a Trade deal or we accept we cannot get EU Lite and its all or nothing and nothing is definitely economically bad and we did need those experts after all and we should have listened to them
There are actually two negotiations. First you exit, and then you negotiate the new relationship, whatever that is,” she said.
You mean they were lying when they said we could leave , pay nothing , still have the free market and that we held all the cards because they needed us
I am truly shocked to discover this was all bluster and BS….problem is we dont know what % of the voters will actually be stunned to read that – all sun and DM readers I imagine
ircFull Memberthe very fact there was no plan drawn up for a leave vote suggests that few expected the result.
How would a leave plan work? There wasn’t one group in charge. It wasn’t a political party with a manifesto. It was different groups with the common aim of leave.
Job done.The plan was get out of the EU. Now that’s settled the govt needs to carry out the wishes of the people to leave the EU.
Countries all over the world can trade with the EU without being in the single market. So if the EU won’t grant access with realistic conditions so be it.Nipper99Free MemberWhen listening to Gove earlier there was no acknowledgement that the result of the ref was close – you would have thought the leavers had it by a landslide – the 16 odd million who voted to remain can just go f*** themselves.
Larry_LambFree Memberirc – Member
So if the EU won’t grant access with realistic conditions so be it.
“So be it”
Oh well thats ok then, whats to worry about? Put kettle on and lets have a brew.
JunkyardFree MemberHow would a leave plan work?
YOu make a plan for what you do when you leave ..why are you asking?
The plan was get out of the EU. Now that’s settled the govt needs to carry out the wishes of the people to leave the EU.
This sort of simplistic understanding is what got us into this mess
How are the govt meant to have a plan when the leavers only just won and all wanted something different
Whatever they implement it will be a minority view of all voters. hell it might even be a minority view of all leave voters because, as you note, they didn’t all agree
Its pretty daft to campaign for something then trust the very poel who campaigned against it to deliver the outcome. Its very very naive.
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