[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

I am happy with no trade deal with Europe if that requires freedom of movement or any budget contribution at all. They should pay us

How can that ever happen you faithfully and honestly told us throughout the campaign they needed us more than we need them and they wont do that

Has reality hit home yet or is just creeping past the threshold of your [s]lies [/s] optimism?

Australian trade approach covered in many papers now too.

Mr Turnbull said he was keen to take advantage of Britain's exit from the European Union.

Acknowledged the improvement for the low base already duckie.

However, I will reject the triumphalist crowing about superior access to education until they facts justify it though. Quiet a way to go yet before reality approached rhetoric - there's a trend here.... 😉

#snpavoidrealityifyoucan

@mike behind the EU thats a laugh. 27 member states with vested interests, took Canada 8 years to plough through the bureaucracy. If there is a will I am certain UK/Aus can agree something in less than 12 months.

Happy both ways Junky, free trade with no freedom of movemnet or budget contribution or no trade deal and wto tarifs just like everyone else. We should not sign any deal involving making a payment or freedom of movement.

PMSL Jamby....
It just took 10 years to agree one with China, by the time the UK starts the EU will be 3 years into the deal, the UK economy then may well look less of a priority then. We also change governments every 3 years and prime ministers last about 18 months. Seriously good luck with that. Remember we need to exit the EU first... Also remember that politicians say things for their own reasons.

Im sure the trade deal with China will involve swallowing as much cheap steel as they can throw at us - as said of the US, China will fax us their terms and we will sign at the bottom and fax back. Bye bye Port Talbot. Jambalya never ever did answer the question as to how many jobs he would be happy to lose pursuant to this folly - all the jobs at the steel works in PT for a start- Jambalaya you must be jumping for joy.

also the flip flopping between trade deals are unimportant and nothing to worry about while celebrating the vaguest sniff of the possibility of maybe talking about doing one is making me smile a bit.

Again the simple bit perhaps written mischievously or not as to why people will be in the front of a queue to do deals when the UK finally leaves

Mr Turnbull said he was [b]keen to take advantage[/b] of Britain's exit from the European Union.

Happy both ways Junky

We should not sign any deal involving making a payment or freedom of movement.

FFS is there no leave voter still saying what they said before they won

Surely not all of you are lying shysters?

Happy both ways Junky, free trade with no freedom of movemnet or budget contribution or no trade deal and wto tarifs just like everyone else. We should not sign any deal involving making a payment or freedom of movement.

This freedom of movement issue. The referendum was about remaining in or leaving the EU. The question didn't mention freedom of movement. We can still leave, so respecting the wishes of the 52%, but keep freedom of movement.

Is it the case that every out voter, the entire 52%, wanted to end freedom of movement? Assuming that all the remain voters were happy to accept ongoing freedom of movement, it would only take a small percentage of the leave vote to have not chosen to vote leave for reasons other than ending FoM, before we have a majority of voters either in favour of or ambivalent to FoM. If this logic is followed we can see that the politicians interpreting the motives behind the votes could easily feel that they have a mandate to allow continued FoM.

Now you might say this is all conjecture or total rubbish. Maybe. But it shows that the isn't much to go on or guide the brexit process.

I think the compromise might be unrestricted free movement of labour rather than movement per se.

I think the compromise might be unrestricted free movement of labour rather than movement per se.

Why compromise? It may be that a majority are happy with freedom of movement. We simply don't know.

@mike behind the EU thats a laugh. 27 member states with vested interests, took Canada 8 years to plough through the bureaucracy. If there is a will I am certain UK/Aus can agree something in less than 12 months.

So… how long do you think a new UK/EU deal will take given that logic?

How long will it take for us to negotiate our way back into WTO, given how many countries need to agree to us joining?

How long will the EU/Aus talks that are due to start next year take? Will UK/Aus talk start at the same time, and run along side them? How will the two negotiations effect and interact with each other, and ongoing UK/EU talks? Doesn't sounds as simple as you suggest to me.

Happy both ways Junky, free trade with no freedom of movemnet or budget contribution or no trade deal and wto tarifs just like everyone else. We should not sign any deal involving making a payment or freedom of movement.

That's your opinion, no one has voted for that. Many may have thought the vote was about stopping free movement of workers, or not paying into EU coffers… but NONE of that was on the ballet form… leaving the EU is all that has been voted for… so far… which is why a mandate is needed for whatever form the 'outside the EU' proposition takes.

[quote=gowerboy ]Is it the case that every out voter, the entire 52%, wanted to end freedom of movement? Assuming that all the remain voters were happy to accept ongoing freedom of movement, it would only take a small percentage of the leave vote to have not chosen to vote leave for reasons other than ending FoM, before we have a majority of voters either in favour of or ambivalent to FoM. If this logic is followed we can see that the politicians interpreting the motives behind the votes could easily feel that they have a mandate to allow continued FoM.

Interesting argument.

Wait a second, I wonder what would happen if you applied the same logic to every single reason anybody had for voting Leave?

So if we're going to do this on an issue by issue basis, then presumably there is a mandate to officially leave the EU, but not to change our relationship with it in any way. I wonder if they'll let us keep our MEPs?

Happy both ways: yes it was what I said. I am confident we'll get a good deal and quickly as its in Europe's interest especially Germany and France who after all the the "movers and shakers". France, Germany and Italy are having a mini summit to discuss how to approach Brexit - vital for two of those with elections next year. No deal is fine as we put to bed freedom of movement issue and we make a profit on tarifs.

@mike wait and see on the Ozzie trade deal, will be done quickly imho

I think if Junker etc had agreed restrictions on freedom of movement or on benefits for non UK citizens Remain would probably have won. They chose not to budge "on principle" and now they will have an EU without the UK the seond wealthiest member and a very substantial contributer

I have no problem with the status quo as is re movement.

Is Australia a replacement for the EU, Australia's interest is with the Asian economies on its door step and the US not with a diminished UK.

@mike wait and see on the Ozzie trade deal, will be done quickly imho

Wait a second, I wonder what would happen if you applied the same logic to every single reason anybody had for voting Leave?

Well exactly. The only mandate is to leave the EU. Had they set out what leave actually constitutes, what the terms are, it would have been different. But they didn't. In my mind, this allows significant freedom in negotiations. We could just negotiate a similar relationship to Norway with no compromise on the democratic integrity of the vote. That in turn is a position which would make the current arrangements seem favourable- even to many leavers. Time for a democratically elected and sovereign parliament to intervene or maybe another democratic vote?

Jambalya never ever did answer the question as to how many jobs he would be happy to lose pursuant to this folly - all the jobs at the steel works in PT for a start- Jambalaya you must be jumping for joy.

Like all brexiters, he's living in a land of make believe, they are determined to exit the EU no matter the cost, and they want to leave as quickly as possible because they fear the consequences of when the economic reality of leaving sets in to the wider population.

I don't think we are going to go anywhere.

So… how long do you think a new UK/EU deal will take given that logic?

Potentially quickly as we are already aligned, will have sprinted past the EU with other key trade deals stuck in a 27 national approval quagmire and EU staring at imploding if their economy takes a knock

Or

A lot longer than that

Looks like leavers are trying to spin the ARM takeover as evidence of 'great' Britain.. but the ARM founder guy was just on the news saying they had huge benefit from EU funding when they were starting up, and brexit makes life far harder to make another ARM.

Let's be clear Remain [b]could not[/b] set out exactly what being in the EU would be like either. No one knows,mthere is much uncertaintly. What is clear is the currency project has failed and many European economies are in deep trouble with high unemployment and those countries cannot set their own monetary policy to address those concerns.

My view of the future is based upon my life and business experience and outlook of the future.

It is my firm belief that much of the Remain logic we where given was very short sighted, it was about preserving sttaus-quo over 2-3 years. Sadly most politicians and businesses people are not visionary, they look purely at the short term.

As I have said numerous times we must judge Brexit over 3, 5 and 10 years

Brexit wasn't a factor in Softbank's purchase of ARM - the Japanese are looking at the future and potential of a business with global reach. As for funding we put in far more than we get out and Cambridge as a world class Uni has no shortage of funding available to it

Let's be clear Quit could not set out exactly what leaving in the EU would be like at all. No one knows,mthere is much uncertaintly.

No one suggested Brexit was a part of Softbank's thinking except pro-quit Brexiteer politicians did they? (Edit: apologies it was May trying to talk it up - doesn't affect the rest of the post)

But hey, no need to apologise for your Brexiteer fellow travellers.

And as for judging Brexit over 3, 5 and 10 years that's a little like judging the effect of a bullet to the head over 3, 5 and 10 years - no going back after you've pulled the trigger.

I may have to review my statement that your not an idiot.

If we judge it over 3 5 and 10 years and it failed that's a generation lost - then what!

I was at a NFU/RICS business breakfast this morning at the Royal Welsh Show and you can imagine how pleased the president of NFU Cymru was at the prospect of an Australian trade deal with the market flooded with cheap Australian food of dubious quality, the Australians have nothing else to trade.

If you want to have quotable ammunition to throw down when you hear a "brexiter" pass comment on trade negotiations then you may find [url= https://twitter.com/DavidAllenGreen/timelines/754948998172119041 ]David Allen Green's twitter feed useful[/url]

Brexit will not happen - there.....I've said it.

Let's be clear Remain could not set out exactly what being in the EU would be like either. No one knows,mthere is much uncertaintly.

In one it means the EU may develop so our relationship may change

the other uncertain means we are leaving based on a pack of promises we cannot deliver, we will backtrack on immediately after the vote and we have literally no idea what any deal will look like

One is completely uncertain in all respects the other is just saying the future is uncertain

Not at all the same thing

Staying marries leads to an uncertain future getting divorced leads to an uncertain future. Its not , in any sense, the same STOP SAYING THIS IT SILLY

Sadly most politicians and businesses people are not visionary, they look purely at the short term.

Let's be clear Remain could not set out exactly what being in the EU would be like either.

On the contrary we knew the terms of our relationship, what exemptions we had, the benefits we received in terms of greater trade and investments , the positive impacts of immigration etc.

what we didn't know was whether the EZ would be a success or whether the EU would evolve into something different. Now we still have the latter uncertainty but this is compounded by unnecessary and negative uncertainty caused by Brexit triggerd by lies and xenophobia. Shameful.

What is clear is the currency project has failed

True but we were not part of that.

and many European economies are in deep trouble with high unemployment and those countries cannot set their own monetary policy to address those concerns.

True. They still represent among our biggest trading partners and will continue to do so. We have just made that harder - again unnecessarily so.

Still we make it harder for the buggers to come in. So look on the bright side 😯

Cambridge as a world class Uni has no shortage of funding available to it

Sadly this just demonstrates that in the realms of university/research funding you genuinely have no idea what you are talking about. None whatsoever. Still, nice to see that it doesn't stop you sharing your opinions as facts.

Brexit - the rise of the anti-expert 🙄

Nipper99 - Member
If we judge it over 3 5 and 10 years and it failed that's a generation lost - then what!

I was at a NFU/RICS business breakfast this morning at the Royal Welsh Show and you can imagine how pleased the president of NFU Cymru was at the prospect of an Australian trade deal with the market flooded with cheap Australian food of dubious quality, the Australians have nothing else to trade.

Major Australian exports to UK, 2014-15 (A$m)
Gold 583
Alcoholic beverages 376
Lead 311
Pearls & gems 294

Major Australian imports from UK, 2014-15 (A$m)
Passenger motor vehicles 1,007
Medicaments (incl veterinary) 552
Pharm products (excl medicaments) 332
Printed matter 275

also this is where Australia falls on the world list

United Kingdom's global merchandise trade relationships
United Kingdom's principal export destinations, 2014
1 United States 12.6%
2 Germany 10.2%
3 The Netherlands 7.2%
23 Australia 1.2%
United Kingdom's principal import sources, 2014
1 Germany 14.4%
2 China 9.2%
3 United States 8.4%
35 Australia 0.5%

EU for Comparison

I assume the farmers were worried about a flood or Mango's 😉

In the broadest sense free trade is good, it's an important step in the world going forward but none of these deals apart from the EU internal one mean true free trade, it means setting the conditions that both sides agree to go forward on such as levels of tarrif and any remeining quota's

@mike wait and see on the Ozzie trade deal, will be done quickly imho

If it takes as long as the others we've signed recently, you'll be redefining "quickly" to mean "about 10 years"

cheap Australian food of dubious quality, the Australians have nothing else to trade.

What, like some of the best food and wine in the world, with some of the lowest disease pressures, resulting in far fewer additives and chemicals? Most of the produce grown in the UK is gash, frankly.

As for other things to trade, we do dig up quite a lot of stuff that Britain, if it had an industry, would find useful. You also get most of your uranium for your new nuclear power stations (owned by the French / Chinese) from us.

STOP SAYING THIS IT SILLY

But Jamby [i]is[/i] silly. What else do you expect?

more cheap crap
http://www.executivestyle.com.au/tasmanian-whisky-cleans-up-again-at-world-whisky-awards-1m3rvw
http://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/food/australian-wines-beat-rest-of-world-at-decanter-world-wine-awards/story-fneuz92c-1226711275296
and loading some sheep onto boats...
[img] [/img]

Interesting piece on Today.

German chap was saying they wouldn't be very happy about the UK being able to trade with the EU, but with lower levels of regulation than other EU countries get.

The "oh, but they will want to trade with us (at any price)" argument doesn't seem to be washing very well.

Could be some tough negotiation for David Davis.

" I have here in my hand a piece of paper that allows us to have blue passports "
How the **** can you negotiate from such a weak position?
Brit bashing will be the biggest vote winner in all the European elections. It's free to do , it's easy to do and will be very popular with the voters.

mmmm makes you think 8)

[url= http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/52-per-cent-of-britons-dont-believe-in-moon-landings-and-that-number-sounds-familiar-say-experts-20160720111106 ]52 per cent of Britons don’t believe in moon landings and that number sounds familiar, say experts[/url]

German chap was saying they wouldn't be very happy about the UK being able to trade with the EU, but with lower levels of regulation than other EU countries get.

For products sold to EU we will follow EU regulations, otherwise we are free to do as we please. The German was correct in that will put them at a disadvantage trading with the rest of the world. That was exactly part of the rationale for Leave. Of he wants the same freedoms he knows what the solution is 8)

Brit bashing will be the biggest vote winner in all the European elections. It's free to do , it's easy to do and will be very popular with the voters.

French elections will see Hollande (if he even makes it onto the ballot) / Valls and the Socialists eliminated by Le Penn - Front Nationale who already says she will be promising a Referendum (on € I imagine not EU) and Sarkozy. This election is likley to be highly Eurosceptic, restrictions on borrowing and 3 major terrorist tattcks in 18 months will see to that.

German unions are already pressing Merkel to do a deal, they don't want 12% tarifs on their third largest car market.

European stock markets have sufferered more than has the UK post June 23 - in fact we ar back where we started. IMF forecasts show even downgraded UK growth still streets ahead of Europe. British tourists are hugely important for many European countries (skiing this year a local in La Plagne said without the Brits rhey'd be screwed as many other nations have stopped coming). They need to do a deal, its makes sense for both sides.

Merkel and May made sensible remarks at their press confernce today. Germany will not allow rebeliious EU nations to de-rail Germany's economy in particular in an election year for her and with the eurozone debt crises still very much unresolved.

Apple booked 60% of it's global profits through Ireland and pays 1% tax on them despite having an official corporate tax rate of 15%. The EU is the worlds largest perfectly legal tax avoidance arrangement - that's my contention

Jambalaya - we had a conversation a while ago about Apple and the EU. I just grabbed some text about it here, not to necessarily argue the toss but to highlight the fact you were insistent that the EU were pro tax avoidance. We discussed how Apple were under investigation. So it's looking like they will have to pay up according to today's news.

Do you wish to reflect on this?

And it seems that Ireland wants to appeal against it, plus the US seems to be having a pop at the EU.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37216176

[i]Last week the US Treasury Department said the European Commission was in danger of becoming a "supra-national tax authority" overriding the tax codes of its member states.[/i]

Rone, don't forget that the Brexit argument was an exercise in truth evasion

For products sold to EU we will follow EU regulations, otherwise we are free to do as we please. The German was correct in that will put them at a disadvantage trading with the rest of the world.

Surely, when dealing with "the rest of the world" we, and the Germans, have to make products, and provide services, based on the regulations of the countries we are selling into. If a German company is making helmets to sell to the Australians, they have to abide by Australian regs. Same goes for a UK company (both now and after we leave EU). So, in terms of regulations, how do we gain a competitive edge selling to "the rest of the world" over the Germans by not being in the EU?

I think the tax evasion question is one of the biggest problems with the EU - in some ways. But alternatively, it allows poorer/smaller states to attract large businesses.. I can't imagine all those big companies would be employing and giving experience to all those Dubliners if it weren't for all the EU business they could effectively poach.

Interesting one.

Re Brexit, I wouldn't have had half as much of a problem with it if it had been based on reasoned intelligent arguments such as the one re Apple and tax, instead of such ignorant xenophobic bullshit.

rone - absolutely stand by the statement. The EU is a tax evaders dream and the freedom of movement rules for goods and services facilitate this. Junker whilst Lux President enriched his country enormously by running rings round tax collection in the EU. Apple where paying 0.0005% tax on profits and Ireland are saying they will appeal.

The back tax is a miserly $15bn on $100bn of profits

Its a disgrace that Ireland should escape without a fine.

Apple says the decision will affect staff and investment in Europe - rubbsih IMO. Europe is a hugely profitable market for them, its time they paid the taxes due. Also do we really care that they won't hire a few mkre admin people in Ireland to help then dodge even more in tax ? Hopefully when we exit the EU we will ensure all UK Apple sales are booked in the UK with full UK taxes paid. If this current situation persists we should create a new level of VAT/Import Duty on such goods, say another 10%

@br the US's nose is out of joint as they would like Apple to pay the taxes in the US at their rate of something like 40%

Apple has approx $250bn plus in cash on its offshore balance sheets, basically profits on which they have paid virtually no tax.

Since this thread has been dredged up I saw this news which was relevant to our previous debates:

Sigmar Gabriel, the German economy minister, says that trade negotiations between the United States and the European Union have effectively failed
...
The UK's decision to leave the European Union is also a setback for TTIP supporters. The UK has been one of the most supportive of the EU member countries, so TTIP is losing a significant part of its political driving force in Europe.

In addition, the UK being outside Europe does potentially diminish the attractiveness of the plan to the US if it does not enhance American business access to Britain.

The UK may be just one market in Europe, but it is an important one.

-- http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37212746

The danger is of course that when we eventually Brexit, the government will happily sign us up for a TTIP-lite with far less negotiating power.

[i]@br the US's nose is out of joint as they would like Apple to pay the taxes in the US at their rate of something like 40%[/i]

Agree with the second part of the sentence, but the US can only 'gain' through the demise of the EU - no one to stand up to them.

The danger is of course that when we eventually Brexit, the government will happily sign us up for a TTIP-lite with far less negotiating power.

Yeah, but that's our right to independently and democratically sign away our rights to foreign multinational corporations who can then sue us for billions if we try to use our laws to stop them doing something bad

😉